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Nick Saban tests positive for Covid-19 (LOLJK CORCHING TONIGHT V GEORGIA)

LTtxfan

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Bartles

Bartles 769

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If those things are indeed 98 percent accurate, pretty likely Saban was a false negative considering no symptoms and no one around him seems to have tested positive (I doubt he and the AD spend a lot of time face-to-face). So a very good chance he leads the Tide out of the tunnel on Saturday night.

This wouldn't help the local folk take the virus more seriously, to say the least.

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Monster

Monster 219

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3 hours ago, Bartles said:

If those things are indeed 98 percent accurate...

How could anyone know if the tests are 98% accurate?  Is the average schmo getting 3 more tests after the first 'positive'?  

If the average person isn't getting 3 additional tests, or even 1 additional test, after the initial 'positive', then there is absolutely no scientific way to know what percentage of tests are false positives.   

I'd file 2% false positives right next to the guys saying 40% false positives because the test picks up on antibodies from earlier flu viruses.   Both percentages are speculation. 

Edit: just saw the four colts personnel who tested positive also tested negative on follow up tests....but the tests are super accurate and everything should be cancelled. 

 

 

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Bartles

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I'm going off @MichaelMina_lab twitter thread a few days ago for the 98 percent, or I think he put it as 1 in 50 produce a false result. His whole deal is while that actually leads to many wrong results, if you're testing every day then those mistakes are rectified quickly and with great confidence. Pretty sure they have enough data at this point to make those calculations.

Now I have no idea if that's the test Saban flunked and then passed, but the way it's being reported would indicate it was.

Bottom line, there will still be games lost due to being extra cautious and that's fine.

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 53605

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16 hours ago, Monster said:

How could anyone know if the tests are 98% accurate?  Is the average schmo getting 3 more tests after the first 'positive'?  

If the average person isn't getting 3 additional tests, or even 1 additional test, after the initial 'positive', then there is absolutely no scientific way to know what percentage of tests are false positives.   

I'd file 2% false positives right next to the guys saying 40% false positives because the test picks up on antibodies from earlier flu viruses.   Both percentages are speculation. 

Edit: just saw the four colts personnel who tested positive also tested negative on follow up tests....but the tests are super accurate and everything should be cancelled. 

 

 

So your opinion is that hundreds of colleges and professional sports testing thousands of people repeatedly for months doesn’t give us enough data to determine a false positive and false negative rate?  
and that 1 in 50 false positives is dubious because 5 out of a few hundred tested positive between the colts and tide?

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UTEX90

UTEX90 589

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22 hours ago, Bartles said:

This wouldn't help the local folk take the virus more seriously, to say the least.

Not sure if that is true.  I bet a lot of "the local folk" think the tests are bullshit anyway.  A false positive test is only going to strengthen that belief.

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Monster

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3 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

So your opinion is that hundreds of colleges and professional sports testing thousands of people repeatedly for months doesn’t give us enough data to determine a false positive and false negative rate?  
and that 1 in 50 false positives is dubious because 5 out of a few hundred tested positive between the colts and tide?

Since you asked...my opinion is, we don't know how many false positive there are because millions of healthy people test 1 time, get a positive result and go home to quarantine.

It's entirely possible that hundreds of thousands of perfectly healthy people are quarantining for no reason.  It's entirely possible that false positives are the cause for needlessly shutting down industries and creating unemployment and psychological distress.    But that's just speculation...as is the speculative 98% test accuracy 'statistic'.

Saban's positive test was false.  The four colt employees were ALL false positives.  

 

Edited by Monster
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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 50038

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Saban Tests Positive For COVID-19, Will Miss Iron Bowl  

Tyler Martin     4 hours ago

On Wednesday morning, University of Alabama coach Nick Saban tested positive for COVID-19 and will not be on the sidelines for Saturday's annual meeting with Auburn.  Head athletic trainer Jeff Allen and team doctor James Robinson released the following statement:  "This morning we received notification that Coach Saban tested positive for COVID-19. He has very mild symptoms, so this test will not be categorized as a potential false positive. He will follow all appropriate guidelines and isolate at home.”

This is the second time this season that Saban, 69, has tested positive for the novel coronavirus with the first being just days before the Georgia game back in October. After three-consecutive negative tests, that one was proven to be a false positive.  On Wednesday morning, Saban took part in the weekly SEC Coaches Teleconference. While the questions are usually about the Crimson Tide's upcoming competition, Wednesday's series of queries were mostly about Saban's condition.

Saban obliged the public with the details of his testing positive.

“I was informed this morning that I had tested positive,” Saban said. “It was a PCR test which was different from the false positive I had before. I don’t really have any cardinal signs of the virus right now. I don’t have a fever, no loss of taste or smell, no fatigue, no muscle aches. I informed the team this morning at 10 on a Zoom call and I’m the only person in the whole organization that tested positive on this round. I’m still going to do everything possible relative to our team for Saturday’s game with Auburn — participate in meetings, watch practice and all that from home in isolation which I did before. [Offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian] will kinda oversee things in the building in my absence.”

This Saturday will be the first time since 2006 that Saban will not be on the sidelines for the Iron Bowl. Sarkisian filled in for Saban while he was out during the lead up to the matchup with the Bulldogs earlier this season. On Wednesday, Saban said that once again the Alabama offensive coordinator will be filling in for him as the game approaches.

“As it is right now if you’ve tested positive you can have no communication with the sidelines as I understand it so Sark’s been a head coach for many years and has been successful at it,” Saban said. “He’ll still continue to call the plays and we won’t really change anything other than the fact that some of the administrative game day decisions he’ll have to be involved in. We really will discuss that more.

"We had discussed it when I went through this three-day hiatus before the Georgia game we discussed exactly how we’ll do that but we’ll be a little more specific about that later in the week.”  Saban said that he currently only has a runny nose and is not exhibiting any of the other symptoms typically associated with COVID-19.

Alabama continues its preparations for the Iron Bowl as it normally would. Sarkisian has taken over administrative duties in the Mal Moore Athletic Facility but will continue to communicate with and relay information to Saban while he remains quarantined.  Saban said on Wednesday morning that Auburn will present quite a challenge for the Crimson Tide regardless of the fact that he won't be on the sidelines.  “Last time I did this for three days I absolutely did everything from home that I did at the office, just did it on Zoom,” Saban said. “Obviously the Auburn game is a most-important game. We hated that this situation occurred but as I’ve said many times before you gotta be able to deal with disruptions in this year and our players have been pretty mature about doing that. We just want to carry on the best we can and they’ve got a very good team and they’re playing really well right now so it’ll be a real challenge for us so we just got to continue to have great preparation so we can put our players in the best chance to have a chance to be successful.”

When it comes to practicing social distancing and wearing a mask, few coaches in the SEC have been as diligent and outspoken as Saban. On Wednesday, Saban said that he has no idea how he contracted the virus, saying that he only visits his office and his home. He did however reveal that he does sometimes have visitors, so that might have been the root cause of his positive test.  Earlier this season, Saban emphasized the practice of social distancing by using an example with him and his mother.

"Look, I practice social distancing," Saban said earlier this year. "We try to keep our distance when we’re away from here, our personal bubble, Miss Terry and I and our immediate family. When I go see my mother who’s 88 years old, we sit 10 feet apart on a park bench and talk for 45 minutes or an hour and I say, ‘Mom, I’m not giving you a hug today because I love you.’ I think there’s a lot of changes that we all have to make in our lifestyle and the things that we do to try to stay safe, and we certainly have respected those things. We do the same thing when we’re in meetings with players — we stay spread out, everybody has social distance, everybody wears a mask. So we’re doing everything we can to stay safe. I don’t fear this because we’re trying to do the right thing and we have great medical care here and we have great medical protocols to try to keep people safe. And I feel very confident in trying to respect and do those things as well as possible."

https://www.si.com/college/alabama/bamacentral/nick-saban-tests-positive-for-covid-19-ahead-of-iron-bowl

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LTtxfan

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Nick Saban return from COVID timeline: What the SEC’s rules say

Updated 6:21 PM; Today 2:27 PM. By Mike Rodak | mrodak@al.com

When news broke Wednesday morning that Alabama coach Nick Saban had again tested positive for COVID-19, two of the resulting questions were whether he would miss Saturday’s Iron Bowl and how long he would be out.  As for the first question, the school said in a statement that Saban is experiencing “very mild symptoms” but his test would “not be categorized as a potential false positive,” as turned out to be the case after he tested positive in mid-October.

Unlike the frantic three days of testing that yielded enough negative results – the last one flown by private jet to the laboratory – for Saban to coach against Georgia, there does not appear to be a process by which Saban can coach against Auburn.  The SEC’s medical guidance task force fall sports recommendations for COVID-19 include a provision that asymptomatic individuals can be tested again, and if that test is negative, an additional pair of tests 24 hours apart can release the person from isolation.  But because Saban is symptomatic, that process does not apply. Saban said Wednesday he has a “little bit of a runny nose” but none of the “cardinal signs” of COVID-19.

The SEC calls for “at least” a 10-day isolation period for a symptomatic person with a confirmed infection, such as Saban. That isolation period begins from the onset of symptoms and must continue until at least 24 hours after “symptom improvement.”

Saban did not directly answer a question Wednesday about when his symptoms began, but if Wednesday is considered his first day of isolation, then his isolation period will run through next Friday, when the team is scheduled to travel to Arkansas for next Saturday’s game. Kickoff time of that game is expected to be announced by the SEC on Monday.

Following Saban’s positive test, SEC rules relax the requirements for testing. Saban will not be required to participate in surveillance testing for 90 days and will not be required to quarantine if he is in contact with an infected person.

https://www.al.com/alabamafootball/2020/11/nick-saban-return-from-covid-timeline-what-the-secs-rules-say.html

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Bama Llama

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He will be quarantined at home.  League rule.  Tangible objects will be hurled.

In other news, Steve Sarkisian and DC Pete Golding are both having outpatient surgery to treat ear infections with an tiny experimental implant.  Yesterday the SEC has issued a new rule permitting a live feed of Coach Saban's face on each of the four large TV screens at Bryant Denny Stadium so long as no audio is broadcast on the PA.  Bama has added a lip reader as a grad assistant.

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LTtxfan

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3 hours ago, Bama Llama said:

He will be quarantined at home.  League rule.  Tangible objects will be hurled.

In other news, Steve Sarkisian and DC Pete Golding are both having outpatient surgery to treat ear infections with an tiny experimental implant.  Yesterday the SEC has issued a new rule permitting a live feed of Coach Saban's face on each of the four large TV screens at Bryant Denny Stadium so long as no audio is broadcast on the PA.  Bama has added a lip reader as a grad assistant.

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