2020 World Series - Dodgers vs Rays

[Helobious 9450]

6 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

There you have it, from the Master of Analytics...Jomboy.

Does anyone have an actual refutation of Jomboys argument and the stats he laid out, or is “durrrrr Jomboy hurt my Astwo feelings butthole” the only response? 

[HillaryFan420 121]

2 hours ago, Helobious said:

Does anyone have an actual refutation of Jomboys argument and the stats he laid out, or is “durrrrr Jomboy hurt my Astwo feelings butthole” the only response? 

For one, you can't argue that a TTO penalty mysteriously doesn't apply to a given pitcher based off of a minute cherry-picked sample, particularly when his career numbers show that batters get better the more times they see him in a given game, just like any other pitcher.  The same is true of the argument that Mookie Betts actually has a verse platoon skill (is better against opposite handed pitchers) based off of a tiny sample of platoon splits.  No hitter has a reverse platoon skill!  Such a thing literally doesn't exist as was shown by Tom Tango in his book years ago.  Players can of course have reverse platoon splits but the variance in platoon skill amongst batters (unlike pitchers) is absurdly small to the point where it's pointless even worrying about them unless you're talking about a seasoned veteran with many thousand of PAs.  

Analytics is a lot more than citing stats.  You have to understand what a stat of a given sample says about how a player is likely to perform in the future.   If you don't understand these concepts then you won't have any idea as to which numbers tell us something about how likely something will occur in the future and which tell us fuck all.  

If you're interested in learning about this stuff then read this article a few times.  You might learn why this video is so idiotic if you do.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-new-way-to-look-at-sample-size/#!parentId=5038052

[Beau Vine 54207]

34 minutes ago, HillaryFan420 said:

For one, you can't argue that a TTO penalty mysteriously doesn't apply to a given pitcher based off of a minute cherry-picked sample, particularly when his career numbers show that batters get better the more times they see him in a given game, just like any other pitcher.  The same is true of the argument that Mookie Betts actually has a verse platoon skill (is better against opposite handed pitchers) based off of a tiny sample of platoon splits.  No hitter has a reverse platoon skill!  Such a thing literally doesn't exist as was shown by Tom Tango in his book years ago.  Players can of course have reverse platoon splits but the variance in platoon skill amongst batters (unlike pitchers) is absurdly small to the point where it's pointless even worrying about them unless you're talking about a seasoned veteran with many thousand of PAs.  

Analytics is a lot more than citing stats.  You have to understand what a stat of a given sample says about how a player is likely to perform in the future.   If you don't understand these concepts then you won't have any idea as to which numbers tell us something about how likely something will occur in the future and which tell us fuck all.  

If you're interested in learning about this stuff then read this article a few times.  You might learn why this video is so idiotic if you do.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-new-way-to-look-at-sample-size/#!parentId=5038052

[Surly Bevo 24908]

Good intentions and poor performance....well that's just poor performance.

[Helobious 9450]

1 hour ago, HillaryFan420 said:

For one, you can't argue that a TTO penalty mysteriously doesn't apply to a given pitcher based off of a minute cherry-picked sample, particularly when his career numbers show that batters get better the more times they see him in a given game, just like any other pitcher.  The same is true of the argument that Mookie Betts actually has a verse platoon skill (is better against opposite handed pitchers) based off of a tiny sample of platoon splits.  No hitter has a reverse platoon skill!  Such a thing literally doesn't exist as was shown by Tom Tango in his book years ago.  Players can of course have reverse platoon splits but the variance in platoon skill amongst batters (unlike pitchers) is absurdly small to the point where it's pointless even worrying about them unless you're talking about a seasoned veteran with many thousand of PAs.  

Analytics is a lot more than citing stats.  You have to understand what a stat of a given sample says about how a player is likely to perform in the future.   If you don't understand these concepts then you won't have any idea as to which numbers tell us something about how likely something will occur in the future and which tell us fuck all.  

If you're interested in learning about this stuff then read this article a few times.  You might learn why this video is so idiotic if you do.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-new-way-to-look-at-sample-size/#!parentId=5038052

None of that explains why it was a good idea to bring in a pitcher that had given up at least one run in every series appearence. Some lights out reliever? I could see that. But that’s not what happened here. 

[HillaryFan420 121]

2 hours ago, Helobious said:

None of that explains why it was a good idea to bring in a pitcher that had given up at least one run in every series appearence. Some lights out reliever? I could see that. But that’s not what happened here. 

I think it's open to question his selection of Anderson over Castillo or one of their other relievers.  However, while Anderson hadn't performed well in the post-season he was by far their best pitcher in the regular season and his stuff appears to be fine.  

[shadow_operative 15932]

9 hours ago, Helobious said:

Does anyone have an actual refutation of Jomboys argument and the stats he laid out, or is “durrrrr Jomboy hurt my Astwo feelings butthole” the only response? 

this. it doesn't really matter who is presenting the analytics, does it? they tend to speak for themselves. 

[shadow_operative 15932]

Kevin Cash pulling Snell (Mookie's nightmare matchup) for Anderson (his dream matchup), is the World Series equivalent of Shaka Smart decoding to stick Eric Davis Jr on Marvin Bagley during OT vs Duke a few years back. 

When you make a move so stupid that it rivals arguably the dumbest move ever made by Shaka fucking Smart (and in World Series game 6 no less), there is no excusing or explaining what you've done. there is only criticism and ridicule, and rightfully so. 

[Beau Vine 54207]

18 hours ago, Helobious said:

None of that explains why it was a good idea to bring in a pitcher that had given up at least one run in every series appearence. Some lights out reliever? I could see that. But that’s not what happened here. 

You skipped right over that part about " a minute cherry-picked sample" and then picked your own minute cherry-picked sample.

[Beau Vine 54207]

13 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

Kevin Cash pulling Snell (Mookie's nightmare matchup) for Anderson (his dream matchup), is the World Series equivalent of Shaka Smart decoding to stick Eric Davis Jr on Marvin Bagley during OT vs Duke a few years back. 

When you make a move so stupid that it rivals arguably the dumbest move ever made by Shaka fucking Smart (and in World Series game 6 no less), there is no excusing or explaining what you've done. there is only criticism and ridicule, and rightfully so. 

There are times I get Derka and spy mixed up because of their new usernames.  This is not one of those times.

[Dr Fear 1268]

My Inside Sources tell me that Kershaw tested positive today.

[Napoleon 8661]

1 hour ago, Dr Fear said:

My Inside Sources tell me that Kershaw tested positive today.

Hopefully he didn't celebrate with his mom (and possible step-dad).