Astros 2020-21 offseason- can't be any worse than last year, right? RIGHT?

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

32 minutes ago, n64ra said:

I do not want to see an OF of

Tucker

Alvarez

Straw

No worries. No way Alvarez spends more than a very occasional day in the OF with those knees. No way. 

[TonyTexas 10515]

Alvarez will not be playing the outfield often. Or first base. 

[UTexasFight 9454]

2 hours ago, kevwun said:

If Click thinks Straw can play center, we will know for certain that he is an idiot.  I don't think that's gonna happen though.

Agreed... on both comments

 

I saw all I need to see of Straw and Tucker in the outfield at the same time in that game in Arizona earlier this year where they completely screwed LMJ and he completely melted down

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

2 hours ago, UTexasFight said:

Agreed... on both comments

 

I saw all I need to see of Straw and Tucker in the outfield at the same time in that game in Arizona earlier this year where they completely screwed LMJ and he completely melted down

I was on the road somewhere between memphis and little rock as the song goes, in my fuck tent, so I didn't see a ton of Astros regular season games this year to see what a shit show it might have been. 

[kevwun 15790]

He has trouble judging fly balls and doesn't get good jumps, so his speed doesn't matter.  It would be a disaster if he plays in the outfield every day.

[Scraps 13561]

Plus he throws like a woman 

[Helobious 9454]

 

[IDIOTsavant 8484]

2 hours ago, Helobious said:

 

There's a thread for this. You know that. You spend a fair amount of time there, but feel free to keep pimping the team that did something yours couldn't over there.

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

2 hours ago, Helobious said:

 

Why do you choose to be the way you are? You are like a child prancing around saying pay attention to me. Doesn’t matter if it’s positive or negative attention. Seriously, this is pretty weak. It’s a long-standing rule not to fuck with other teams team threads. There’s like 2 rules on this place. That and not telling someone to kill themselves. 

[TonyTexas 10515]

First off, I don’t really get that Pope meme. Second, the Rangers might want to worry about their own shitty team. 

[Helobious 9454]

Multiple Astros fans went into my Yankee team thread to shitpost a while back, I had to return the favor just one time. The hand-wringing & crying comes as no surprise. 

[WBT 20579]

I don't get the meme either

[TonyTexas 10515]

7 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Multiple Astros fans went into my Yankee team thread to shitpost a while back, I had to return the favor just one time. The hand-wringing & crying comes as no surprise. 

I remember that thread and its title. Lulz

2020 WS Champion New York Yankees Season Thread

[UTexasFight 9454]

5 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I was on the road somewhere between memphis and little rock as the song goes, in my fuck tent, so I didn't see a ton of Astros regular season games this year to see what a shit show it might have been. 

Well, thanks to the wonders of mlb.com/filmroom now you can!

 

no need to back up your fellow outfielder. Let’s let Cole fucking Kalhoun get an inside the park HR:

https://www.mlb.com/video/lance-mccullers-jr-in-play-run-s-to-kole-calhoun

Way to hit your cutoff man:

https://www.mlb.com/video/lance-mccullers-jr-in-play-run-s-to-stephen-vogt

 

no really, way to hit your cutoff man:

https://www.mlb.com/video/ketel-marte-doubles-4-on-a-sharp-line-drive-to-center-fielder-myles-straw-stephe
 

 

Edited October 21, 2020 by UTexasFight

[tx 3 putt 76974]

1 hour ago, TonyTexas said:

I remember that thread and its title. Lulz

2020 WS Champion New York Yankees Season Thread

LuLz 

[Ichabod 184]

5 hours ago, Helobious said:

Multiple Astros fans went into my Yankee team thread to shitpost a while back, I had to return the favor just one time. The hand-wringing & crying comes as no surprise. 

I actually thought it was pretty funny

[Guest]

7 hours ago, Helobious said:

Multiple Astros fans went into my Yankee team thread to shitpost a while back, I had to return the favor just one time. The hand-wringing & crying comes as no surprise. 

Home grown humor...

[Snake Diggity 4625]

7 needs for this offseason:

1. CF: probably can’t afford Springer.  Free agent market is weak after Springer.  Rumors Astros interested in Jurickson Profar to play CF.  Keep an eye on versatile free agents like Villar and E Hernandez.  But I expect this to get addressed via trade.

2. LF: probably won’t spend the money to keep Brantley.  Some decent options who could be almost as good as Brantley and not cost nearly as much.  I also expect this to get addressed via trade.

3. Ace: Again, payroll constraints may mean this doesn’t get addressed or gets addressed via trade.  Although there are quite a few redemption type arms that might be right down Click’s alley.  Robbie Ray comes to mind.

4. Closer: I doubt they address this and it’s too hard to guess which arm (free agent or trade) Click will go get.  But losing Osuna was bad.

5. backup catcher:  this is the one spot where I think free agency makes sense, as there are a lot of really good 2nd tier catchers available (Avila, Flowers, Castro, McCann, Chirinos, Ramos).  Could also be addressed via trade, guys like Danny Jansen, Austin Hedges, or Jacob Stallings come to mind.

6-7. Elite prospects: probably won’t be able to address this, but it is a major need.  In fact they’ll probably have to trade their one good prospect (Whitley) to address one of the top 3 needs on the mlb roster.  But adding Pedro Leon and Oscar Colas in the intl signing period in January will help.  I can’t think of any bad contracts from other teams that Houston could take on as a way to add prospects, and they probably can’t afford to do that anyway.

Hypothetical opening day roster:

C Maldonado, Avila

IF Gurriel, Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Diaz, Toro

OF Tucker, Profar, Haniger, Alvarez, Straw

SP Greinke, Valdez, McCullers, Ray, Urquidy

RP Pruitt, James, Raley, Taylor, Smith, Paredes, Javier, Pressly

Top 10 Prosoects: Whitley, Pena, Leon, Nova, Abreu, Brown, Lee, Barber, Santos, Solis

[Guest]

Alvarez needs to prove he can run to fucking 2nd before you start slotting him for anything other than DH.

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

1. CF: probably can’t afford Springer.  Free agent market is weak after Springer.  Rumors Astros interested in Jurickson Profar to play CF.  Keep an eye on versatile free agents like Villar and E Hernandez.  But I expect this to get addressed via trade.

2. LF: probably won’t spend the money to keep Brantley.  Some decent options who could be almost as good as Brantley and not cost nearly as much.  I also expect this to get addressed via trade.

Who are we trading? Our farm is depleted. Other than Whitley, whose value has probably dropped significantly, I'm not sure who would be the centerpiece of a trade for an above-average CF or LF. 

[Snake Diggity 4625]

10 minutes ago, Seasick Sailor said:

Who are we trading? Our farm is depleted. Other than Whitley, whose value has probably dropped significantly, I'm not sure who would be the centerpiece of a trade for an above-average CF or LF. 

It won’t be an “above average CF”, at least not by public opinion.  You can look at Tampa’s roster and get an idea of what Click will try to do.  He will make a trade for a guy coming off a down year (Zunino) or a forgotten prospect (Arozarena).  That type of move won’t require top prospects, and Houston has a very deep stable of 2nd tier pitching prospects to trade from.  Guys like Bryan Abreu, Luis Garcia, Brandon Bielak, etc. could be enough in a package for a player similar to who Yandy Diaz was before Tampa got him.  But it also would not surprise me at all if Whitley is traded this offseason, and he could probably headline a package for a really good player.  And really nothing would shock me as Tampa’s model was to never hold on to an asset too long.  I could see Click moving any player on the roster for the right return.

Edited October 22, 2020 by Snake Diggity

[Scraps 13561]

good read on Strom in spoilers:

https://www.fox26houston.com/sports/astros-pitching-coach-brent-strom-opens-up-about-returning-in-2021-why-correa-and-baker-are-so-special?utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=trueanthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR2uR7S_cJEPyMzp4vKRLpPN-Ln_iUmBOeYYpYJXpRljzIotu566VkcaF-k

HOUSTON - Astros pitching coach Brent Strom is a big reason why the Astros won the World Series in 2017, have been to two World Series in the last four years and four consecutive American League Championship Series. 

At age 72, Strom is planning to return to the Astros in 2021, but given everything that has happened this year he had a decision to make with the season ending after game seven of the ALCS against the Rays. 

“I’m not a spring chicken anymore,” Strom said in an interview with FOX 26 Sports. “The COVID thing was difficult, being away from family and everything. As of right now, I plan on coming back next year. I do have a contract. I enjoyed my time with (Astros manager) Dusty (Baker) a great deal and the young pitchers. So I would say I will be coming back and looking forward to another season. 

“At moments when you’re kind of struggling and things aren’t going your way, there’s a tendency to kind of think about ‘well maybe I’ve never had a summer to myself,’ and those thoughts enter your mind, but then they’re dissipated when you see the effort and the success that some of these young guys had this year. So it was kind of rejuvenating for me.” 

 

The fact that Astros owner Jim Crane picked up the 2021 option on his contract four games into the regular season, along with the options for Baker and third base coach Gary Pettis, was significant to Strom. 

“That meant a lot and went a long way, and for him to do this so quickly really set my mind at ease a little bit knowing that I had the option and he welcomed me back,” Strom said. 

“When I took this job years ago, the guy who picked me up at the airport was Jim Crane, which spoke volumes to me. I didn’t expect the owner of the ball club to pick me up. That tells you the type of man and owner he is.” 

The Astros young pitchers are among the many reasons why Strom is still working at his age. 

“I think I love the game a great deal,” Strom said. “I love the young pitchers this year. The young pitchers that our player development people sent to us were fabulous. I’m talking from (Cristian) Javier, (Enoli) Paredes, Framber Valdez came into his own. Some of the other guys we picked up, Andre Scrubb, the list goes on and on. It was kind of a challenge with the young pitchers in the bullpen and piecing together our rotation. To see how well they did. How they grew. We had our bumps. There’s no question about it. We were up and down for the season, but come playoff time, I thought we more than held our own. I think that went a (long) way of making up my mind (to keep working). 

“It was nerve-racking. I had a great deal of help with (bullpen coach) Josh Miller and..the PD (player development) department run by our minor league staff, (minor league pitching coordinator) Bill Murphy and the guys down there, (Round Rock pitching coach) Drew French. 

According to Strom, the Astros position players did a great job supporting his pitching staff as well, especially shortstop Carlos Correa. 

“If you noticed late in the (ALCS) series, especially game six, game seven, there were times that I was going to go make a trip to the mound and I was at the top step,” Strom explained. “Then I noticed Carlos Correa coming in and I said ‘I don’t need to go.’ Carlos Correa basically became a conduit for me and he had been around me enough and he was a motivating factor for these young kids. So I just stayed in the dugout and let the players play.” 

And Strom points out Correa’s support for the Astros pitchers represents only one of the ways he is a leader for this franchise. 

“He basically took all the heat that we were taking and placed it on his back and carried us and everybody followed,” Strom said. “His leadership skills are beyond reproach.” 

And speaking of his pitching staff, Strom said Framber Valdez and Jose Urquidy are on their way to becoming very special pitchers. 

“Each of them have a chance to be top of the line pitchers for a first division team, particularly Framber Valdez,” Strom said. "Where he came from, what he accomplished in this series, he made a name for himself. He became a force on the mound. Just really excited for him. He’s a family man now. I think he’s expecting his second child. I think that had a great deal to do with him maturing and growing up.  

“Urquidy, we saw what he did in the (2019) World Series, so that was not a surprise to see him having success. I just wish we could have had him sooner. COVID did not allow that, but these are two guys that you can build your rotation around.” 

Strom could not say enough good things about manager Dusty Baker and used this interview to make a point. 

“Dusty is as fine a human being as I’ve ever been around in this game,” Baker said. “He is very thoughtful. He cares about his players. He cares about them to the extent that, I’ve been thinking about it. I knew we were going to do this Zoom call and there’s something I want to bring up. He’s taken a lot of heat when he was with the Cubs (manager 2003-06) and I watched that from afar, in terms of hurting pitchers arms, like Mark Prior and Kerry Wood, and I’m here to tell you that this manager cares more about his pitchers’ arms than even I did. He was much more conservative in his thinking with young pitchers like Paredes and Javier and those kind of people. Where I was more aggressive and this is coming from someone who was the second person to ever have Tommy John surgery. 

“So when I read these comments on Twitter from people that are sitting in their mothers’ basements writing stupid ideas that Dusty Baker ruined Mark Prior’s arm or ruined Kerry Wood’s arm, God could have been the manager of the Chicago Cubs and Kerry Wood and Mark Prior would have hurt their arms themselves due to their delivery. It had nothing to do with Dusty Baker and his usage. Mechanics are mechanics. Movement patterns are movement patterns. Watching them and studying them throughout the years, they were both on the trail to having arm injuries. Dusty Baker undeservedly has gotten too much heat for their injuries when it was self-imposed. Their deliveries created it. Dusty is very caring about his young pitcher's arms. He always second-guesses me when I say a guy’s ready to go.  

“If you noticed this year, until the playoffs, nobody and I mean nobody, threw three days in a row until (Ryan) Pressly threw three days in a row, games four, five and six (of the ALCS). With that in mind, we were very conservative with our young relievers, with our pitchers watching their pitch counts. Dusty Baker deserves a great deal of credit for the health of this pitching staff that navigated this 60-game schedule.” 

Strom is very hopeful third base coach Gary Pettis, who is battling multiple myeloma, will return to the Astros staff in 2021. 

“Obviously, one of my closest friends. Gary, I’ve stayed in close contact with him, despite him being a Laker fan and me a Celtic fan," Strom said. "I love this guy. He’s doing well. I talked to him during the series, after the series. I was really glad he was able to join us (at Petco Park in San Diego) and a lot of thoughts and prayers always go out to him, and I really do hope to see him in the dugout next year.”

 

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

3 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

7 needs for this offseason:

1. CF: probably can’t afford Springer.  Free agent market is weak after Springer.  Rumors Astros interested in Jurickson Profar to play CF.  Keep an eye on versatile free agents like Villar and E Hernandez.  But I expect this to get addressed via trade.

2. LF: probably won’t spend the money to keep Brantley.  Some decent options who could be almost as good as Brantley and not cost nearly as much.  I also expect this to get addressed via trade.

3. Ace: Again, payroll constraints may mean this doesn’t get addressed or gets addressed via trade.  Although there are quite a few redemption type arms that might be right down Click’s alley.  Robbie Ray comes to mind.

4. Closer: I doubt they address this and it’s too hard to guess which arm (free agent or trade) Click will go get.  But losing Osuna was bad.

5. backup catcher:  this is the one spot where I think free agency makes sense, as there are a lot of really good 2nd tier catchers available (Avila, Flowers, Castro, McCann, Chirinos, Ramos).  Could also be addressed via trade, guys like Danny Jansen, Austin Hedges, or Jacob Stallings come to mind.

6-7. Elite prospects: probably won’t be able to address this, but it is a major need.  In fact they’ll probably have to trade their one good prospect (Whitley) to address one of the top 3 needs on the mlb roster.  But adding Pedro Leon and Oscar Colas in the intl signing period in January will help.  I can’t think of any bad contracts from other teams that Houston could take on as a way to add prospects, and they probably can’t afford to do that anyway.

Hypothetical opening day roster:

C Maldonado, Avila

IF Gurriel, Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Diaz, Toro

OF Tucker, Profar, Haniger, Alvarez, Straw

SP Greinke, Valdez, McCullers, Ray, Urquidy

RP Pruitt, James, Raley, Taylor, Smith, Paredes, Javier, Pressly

Top 10 Prosoects: Whitley, Pena, Leon, Nova, Abreu, Brown, Lee, Barber, Santos, Solis

What do

you think our payroll is (counting JV at 33 million or whatever). 

[Snake Diggity 4625]

10 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

What do

you think our payroll is (counting JV at 33 million or whatever). 

I originally thought it would be ~$170M not including JV’s salary but now I think the highest we can hope for is ~$150M, with ~$135M representing the floor.  That lower number would only leave about $20M to play with after arbitration raises.  Based on that I don’t expect them to make Brantley a QO and I don’t see them signing Springer (although I think Crane would be willing to increase the total to accommodate Springer if Click thought it was a good value).

 

I expect Click to trade young pitching for 1-2 forgotten OF prospects he likes (think Justin Williams, Mickey Moniak, Jake Fraley types).  Free agency will be limited to 2-3 3rd tier guys, likely a backup catcher (Avila?), a redemption arm (Ray?) and a versatile position player (Profar?).

Edited October 22, 2020 by Snake Diggity

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

8 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I originally thought it would be ~$170M not including JV’s salary but now I think the highest we can hope for is ~$150M, with ~$135M representing the floor.  That lower number would only leave about $20M to play with after arbitration raises.  Based on that I don’t expect them to make Brantley a QO and I don’t see them signing Springer (although I think Crane would be willing to increase the total to accommodate Springer if Click thought it was a good value).

 

I expect Click to trade young pitching for 1-2 forgotten OF prospects he likes (think Justin Williams, Mickey Moniak, Jake Fraley types).  Free agency will be limited to 2-3 3rd tier guys, likely a backup catcher (Avila?), a redemption arm (Ray?) and a versatile position player (Profar?).

I can’t see no QO for Brantley. He’s unlikely to take it and there’s no such thing as a bad 1 year deal. Any chance they move Greinke you think?  

[Snake Diggity 4625]

16 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I can’t see no QO for Brantley. He’s unlikely to take it and there’s no such thing as a bad 1 year deal. Any chance they move Greinke you think?  

I disagree, I think Brantley would take the QO.  His market ceiling prepandemic was about $55M/3yr, but was more likely looking at $45M/3yr.  So he really doesn’t stand to lose much by taking $19M/1yr.  And with the market uncertainty, entering free agency as an aging, defensively limited player with a draft pick attached puts him with a really low floor.

I would be very surprised if they traded Greinke.  Very few if any teams have an extra $23M to take on an aging pitcher, and I don’t see any reason Houston would trade him unless it’s for prospects and no team is going to do that.  Plus if they trade him their rotation suddenly becomes extremely unproven.

I can see Click shopping any number of players.  They proved in Tampa nothing is out of bounds.  Correa, McCullers, young pitching, even Bregman, if Click thinks he can improve their odds of winning another ring long term, he will do it.

[Scraps 13561]

I would trade McCullers in a heartbeat

[Snake Diggity 4625]

41 minutes ago, Scraps said:

I would trade McCullers in a heartbeat

One thing working against Houston is that they’ve been so good, it is unlikely other teams view their players as having untapped potential.  The only way it makes sense to trade McCullers is if there is a team out there that thinks they can get more out of him than Houston has.  Same for Correa and others.  Click probably won’t be able to make the same kinds of trades that were so fruitful for Tampa.  He will have to mine forgotten prospects and 3rd tier free agents.

[hornmpa96 2618]

I understand why the team wouldn't be in the market for Springer given he will likely receive a massive contract. However, if a major league owner is so strapped for cash, he can't afford to pay Michael Brantley for a one year qualifying offer then he needs to get out of the business. Brantley is an extremely consistent middle of the lineup bat and really doesn't cost that much.

 

[Snake Diggity 4625]

2 hours ago, hornmpa96 said:

I understand why the team wouldn't be in the market for Springer given he will likely receive a massive contract. However, if a major league owner is so strapped for cash, he can't afford to pay Michael Brantley for a one year qualifying offer then he needs to get out of the business. Brantley is an extremely consistent middle of the lineup bat and really doesn't cost that much.

 

It’s not a matter of affording Brantley; Houston will almost certainly add more than $19M to their current committed payroll.  The question is whether or not the $19M committed to Brantley via QO could be better used elsewhere.  What if the front office expects the free agent market to be frigid and also thinks they can “fix” Robbie Ray and Jurickson Profar into superstar level players?  If they think they can turn those two guys into a combined 8 war while paying them <$10M each, they’d be stupid to give Brantley that $20m instead.

[hornmpa96 2618]

4 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

It’s not a matter of affording Brantley; Houston will almost certainly add more than $19M to their current committed payroll.  The question is whether or not the $19M committed to Brantley via QO could be better used elsewhere.  What if the front office expects the free agent market to be frigid and also thinks they can “fix” Robbie Ray and Jurickson Profar into superstar level players?  If they think they can turn those two guys into a combined 8 war while paying them <$10M each, they’d be stupid to give Brantley that $20m instead.

If they believe its a better use of those funds, Ok - but they better be right. Brantley's an almost guaranteed 3 to 4 WAR player.

[Snake Diggity 4625]

3 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

If they believe its a better use of those funds, Ok - but they better be right. Brantley's an almost guaranteed 3 to 4 WAR player.

I really like Brantley, and I think even in this environment he’s worth $15M/yr, but he is by no means “guaranteed” to be a 3-4 war guy.  He’ll be 34 next year and hasn’t played >150 games in 6 years.  He’s limited to LF and his value is almost entirely tied to his on-base ability.  I also trust Click until proven otherwise.  If I were GM I would not QO Brantley.

[Ichabod 184]

Just got into a Twitter spat with Ken Rosenthal 

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

41 minutes ago, Ichabod said:

Just got into a Twitter spat with Ken Rosenthal 

Care to share? 

[Guest]

11 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

It’s not a matter of affording Brantley; Houston will almost certainly add more than $19M to their current committed payroll.  The question is whether or not the $19M committed to Brantley via QO could be better used elsewhere.  What if the front office expects the free agent market to be frigid and also thinks they can “fix” Robbie Ray and Jurickson Profar into superstar level players?  If they think they can turn those two guys into a combined 8 war while paying them <$10M each, they’d be stupid to give Brantley that $20m instead.

Profar is not a pitcher.  Houston ain't fixing him.

[Ichabod 184]

Care to share? 

[HtownHorn 14685]

22 hours ago, Scraps said:

I would trade McCullers in a heartbeat

I think you try to work out a long term deal first, if that fails, you trade him. He still has TOR stuff.

[kevwun 15790]

Signing a guy who still hasn't put it all together to a longterm deal is not a good plan.

Edited October 23, 2020 by kevwun

[HillaryFan420 121]

8 hours ago, slorch said:

Profar is not a pitcher.  Houston ain't fixing him.

It depends on whether or not you believe Profar can be a competent CF (seems like a gamble to me).  His bat would play well in center and he likely could be a 2-4 WAR player there.  

 

On 10/22/2020 at 6:51 AM, Snake Diggity said:

7 needs for this offseason:

1. CF: probably can’t afford Springer.  Free agent market is weak after Springer.  Rumors Astros interested in Jurickson Profar to play CF.  Keep an eye on versatile free agents like Villar and E Hernandez.  But I expect this to get addressed via trade.

2. LF: probably won’t spend the money to keep Brantley.  Some decent options who could be almost as good as Brantley and not cost nearly as much.  I also expect this to get addressed via trade.

3. Ace: Again, payroll constraints may mean this doesn’t get addressed or gets addressed via trade.  Although there are quite a few redemption type arms that might be right down Click’s alley.  Robbie Ray comes to mind.

4. Closer: I doubt they address this and it’s too hard to guess which arm (free agent or trade) Click will go get.  But losing Osuna was bad.

5. backup catcher:  this is the one spot where I think free agency makes sense, as there are a lot of really good 2nd tier catchers available (Avila, Flowers, Castro, McCann, Chirinos, Ramos).  Could also be addressed via trade, guys like Danny Jansen, Austin Hedges, or Jacob Stallings come to mind.

6-7. Elite prospects: probably won’t be able to address this, but it is a major need.  In fact they’ll probably have to trade their one good prospect (Whitley) to address one of the top 3 needs on the mlb roster.  But adding Pedro Leon and Oscar Colas in the intl signing period in January will help.  I can’t think of any bad contracts from other teams that Houston could take on as a way to add prospects, and they probably can’t afford to do that anyway.

Hypothetical opening day roster:

C Maldonado, Avila

IF Gurriel, Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Diaz, Toro

OF Tucker, Profar, Haniger, Alvarez, Straw

SP Greinke, Valdez, McCullers, Ray, Urquidy

RP Pruitt, James, Raley, Taylor, Smith, Paredes, Javier, Pressly

Top 10 Prosoects: Whitley, Pena, Leon, Nova, Abreu, Brown, Lee, Barber, Santos, Solis

If I were Seattle no way would I trade Haniger without getting Whitley in return.  

Edited October 23, 2020 by HillaryFan420

[HillaryFan420 121]

35 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Signing a guy who still hasn't put it all together to a longterm deal is not a good plan.

Unless LMJ has no faith in his arm he should try to show that he can pitch 150+ quality innings in back-to-back seasons before he ties himself down.  His market will rebound dramatically if he can do that.

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

16 minutes ago, HillaryFan420 said:

Unless LMJ has no faith in his arm he should try to show that he can pitch 150+ quality innings in back-to-back seasons before he ties himself down.  His market will rebound dramatically if he can do that.

Yeah. He doesn't even have to be that good- honestly- to get $10 million a year if he can pitch 150 innings two years in a row. 

[Snake Diggity 4625]

36 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah. He doesn't even have to be that good- honestly- to get $10 million a year if he can pitch 150 innings two years in a row. 

I would have zero issues giving McCullers $40M/4yrs right now.

Edited October 23, 2020 by Snake Diggity

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

1 minute ago, Snake Diggity said:

I would have zero issues giving McCullers $40M/4yrs right now.

Me either. I said I'd extend him at 3/45 after his last arbitration- so that would probably mean 4/52 when you count what he probably gets this year. 

[HillaryFan420 121]

He would have to either have great doubts about his arm holding up or be a total idiot to take that though.  I was worried about LMJ earlier in the season when his curve was getting hammered (even by LHB!) but I really like what I saw from him in the post-season.  He used his change effectively and his cutter looks like it could be a real weapon and something more than a "show me" pitch.  

[patrickdrinksbeer 791]

He would have to either have great doubts about his arm holding up or be a total idiot to take that though.  I was worried about LMJ earlier in the season when his curve was getting hammered (even by LHB!) but I really like what I saw from him in the post-season.  He used his change effectively and his cutter looks like it could be a real weapon and something more than a "show me" pitch.  

he’s literally never pitched even 140 innings in a season. i wouldn’t easily dismiss that kind of offer if i was him.

[HillaryFan420 121]

he’s literally never pitched even 140 innings in a season. i wouldn’t easily dismiss that kind of offer if i was him.

He’s never been worth less than around 2 WAR in each full season he has pitched. The only way this kind of deal makes sense is if he does not expect any increase in durability in conjunction with a collapse in market value for FAs over the next four years to around half the value they would command pre-COVID. I don’t see it.

[patrickdrinksbeer 791]

He’s never been worth less than around 2 WAR in each full season he has pitched.

kind of relevant

[Snake Diggity 4625]

11 hours ago, patrickdrinksbeer said:

 

kind of relevant

 

Yeah, he’s pitched 500 innings total in 6 seasons.  That’s really where any contract negotiation with him will start.  At 10.9 fWAR he’s been pretty productive over those 500 innings.  But unless he comes out and puts up 180+ innings and 5 war next season his contract ceiling will be very limited.  That said, I do think his next 5 seasons will be more productive than his last 5, and there’s something to be said for his relatively low mileage.  $40M/4yr sounds about fair if McCullers wanted some security now.

[HillaryFan420 121]

That kind of contract would be fair if he had no upside as a starter and was seen purely as a reliever moving forward. It’s lower in AAV than the deal Will Smith got from the Braves. I’m sure the Astros would love it but there’s no way he or his agent would find that to be acceptable.

[TonyTexas 10515]

LMJ will definitely think he’s worth more than he really is.