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Astros 2020-21 offseason- can't be any worse than last year, right? RIGHT?

Wulaw Horn

By Wulaw Horn
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Guadaloopy
Guadaloopy

At this point, that’s a decent trade.  

Macklemore
Macklemore

The double standard when it comes to the treatment of the Astros and the Red Sox by the media is infuriating. If we rehired Hinch, assholes like Jeff Passan, Jon Heyman and Buster Olney would be going

Scraps
Scraps

After last year i would pay Correa whatever the fuck he wants for 12 years i don't give a fuck. He is the heart of the team and I am down with him 4 life. I don't even care if he leaves next season

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6320

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1 hour ago, UTexasFight said:

Yes, but who are going to move down in that lineup? Brantley? Tucker? 
I know the popular answer will be Tucker

that may be right for opening day but tucker is going to be forcing the issue to be higher in the lineup by the middle of April. 
he’s going to have a 30/30 season

I hope Tucker kicks ass, but yes, you should absolutely swap Tucker and Alvarez as of now. 

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YChang

YChang 3462

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1 hour ago, UTexasFight said:

Yes, but who are going to move down in that lineup? Brantley? Tucker? 
I know the popular answer will be Tucker

that may be right for opening day but tucker is going to be forcing the issue to be higher in the lineup by the middle of April. 
he’s going to have a 30/30 season

I really really hope that’s true. 

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Scraps

Scraps 13577

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Alvarez needs protection, IMO.. pitchers will glady give his bad knees first base. He needs to have Correa, Brantley or Tucker behind him. 
Yep. He should bat 4th. Have Brantley in front of him and Correa behind him.

This site will never come to a consensus though cause there are so many ways you can construct the lineup and not be too wrong. Good problem to have.
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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19152

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15 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

Could we have seen the opening day lineup today?

Altuve

Brantley

Bregman

Tucker

Correa

Alvarez

Gurriel

Straw

Maldanado

 

Credit given to Baker for even going RLRLRLR for the 1st 7 batters.

Now that we have the 3 batter rule I wonder if switching up handedness  will even be a thing anymore. Probably but it seems slightly less essential. 
also- lineup construction is worth less than 2 wins between optimal and randomly picking names out of a hat the nerds claim. That seems low to me but they are all pretty much in agreement on that. 

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10527

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3 hours ago, texashorne said:

Alvarez needs protection, IMO.. pitchers will glady give his bad knees first base. He needs to have Correa, Brantley or Tucker behind him. 

Good point 

3 hours ago, Scraps said:

Yep. He should bat 4th. Have Brantley in front of him and Correa behind him.

This site will never come to a consensus though cause there are so many ways you can construct the lineup and not be too wrong. Good problem to have.

I agree that he should end up there but I wouldn’t get ragey if he starts the season at 6. 

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10527

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9 minutes ago, htown85 said:

Does anyone have FuboTV?  I'm reading that they carry the Astros (AT&T Sportsnet)...can anyone confirm?  Any issues with the service?  This team is the only thing holding me back from cutting the cord.

Looks like you might be right but at $65/mo. , it’s hardly a bargain. 
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.groundedreason.com/how-to-watch-houston-astros-games/%3Famp

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texashorne

texashorne 1178

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8 hours ago, htown85 said:

Does anyone have FuboTV?  I'm reading that they carry the Astros (AT&T Sportsnet)...can anyone confirm?  Any issues with the service?  This team is the only thing holding me back from cutting the cord.

I have it, it's great.. no TBS and TNT, so you may need to switch to YouTubetv come playoff time. But all the sports come through just fine..

 

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10527

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16 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I was just thinking maybe we should be slightly concerned about being 3-12 so far I’m the spring?  

Yeah. The offense has been pathetic throughout the spring. Like worst in MLB bad. I’m not going to panic yet but I would like to see some progress.

Edited by TonyTexas
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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6320

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There seems to be some evidence that spring K% and BB% are meaningful. Altuve's 2:1 K:BB ratio is thus maybe a bit alarming. On the other hand, Tucker flips that and has walked twice as frequently as he's struck out. 

But we are still talking about <40 PAs at this point, so, while I do agree that slight concern in Altuve's case may be warranted, overall there's probably not much to glean from the numbers yet. 

But yeah, nobody seems to be hitting with much power at all; would be nice if they got that going in the last days of ST. 

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4627

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I am a little worried about Altuve.  There are 2 potential things that could be happening to him and both are really bad.  Either the cheating scandal ruined his psyche or he is experiencing age related decline.  The mental thing has ended plenty of careers and the age related decline ends them all.

Altuve’s stature gives him very little margin for error as he ages.  Even a minor reduction in foot speed or bat speed will have a major impact on his value.  If his power drops off at all he goes back to the fringey regular he was during his first 2.5 seasons.  Add in an uptick in strikeouts and reduced speed on the bases and on defense, he’s unplayable.

I don’t necessarily think that is the case, but there are definitely some warning lights flickering.  This is a big year for him.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19152

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1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

I am a little worried about Altuve.  There are 2 potential things that could be happening to him and both are really bad.  Either the cheating scandal ruined his psyche or he is experiencing age related decline.  The mental thing has ended plenty of careers and the age related decline ends them all.

Altuve’s stature gives him very little margin for error as he ages.  Even a minor reduction in foot speed or bat speed will have a major impact on his value.  If his power drops off at all he goes back to the fringey regular he was during his first 2.5 seasons.  Add in an uptick in strikeouts and reduced speed on the bases and on defense, he’s unplayable.

I don’t necessarily think that is the case, but there are definitely some warning lights flickering.  This is a big year for him.

Yeah. In my batting order suggesting hitting him sixth I said it’s very possible he’s now our 6th best bat- if Brantley and Alvarez are healthy and Tucker improves from last year. 

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4627

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1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah. In my batting order suggesting hitting him sixth I said it’s very possible he’s now our 6th best bat- if Brantley and Alvarez are healthy and Tucker improves from last year. 

I would probably bat Altuve leadoff to start the season.  The thinking would be to give him some confidence and bats behind him and he would see better pitches with all those big bats behind him.  Give him 50-200 pa to see how he does then move him to whichever spot fits his production.  

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6320

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3 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

You guys realize Altuve was our best hitter in the ALCS by far. I'm not worried at all. Spring training is mostly useless these days.

Yeah. If you combine his postseason and regular season, he did this last year:

61 G; 270 PAs; .256/.333/.421; 10 HR; 2 SB; 5 CS

Over 61 games, that's fine...well below his norms, but not terrible (other than the base-running). His contact rates have been trending downward and he's striking out at about a 20% clip so far this spring (which may be nothing, but there is some evidence that K% and BB% in the spring is meaningful). 

But yeah, a few games this spring and about 1/3 of a season last year don't tell us that much. I still assume he'll be a good offensive player. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19152

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3 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

You guys realize Altuve was our best hitter in the ALCS by far. I'm not worried at all. Spring training is mostly useless these days.

I do. He was garbage most of the year. He wasn’t great in 2019. You could be an above average hitter for the astros and still be the 6th best at in the team. It’s probable Altuve is now an above average bat and not elite. It’s possible he’s average now. 
I hope he’s still elite. Nothing would make me happier. 

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TexArcher

TexArcher 38069

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I'm not too worried about Altuve.  He was terrible for the first couple of months of 2019 and then he was his old self again.  I think more or less the same thing happened last year and is happening again this spring.  He just needs to figure out how to get going earlier in the season.  This is pure speculation, but I wonder if his offseason routine isn't what it used to be.

Regardless, I don't expect .340+ with 20+ HR and 30+ steals anymore.  But if he can give us .290 with 20 HR and remember how to throw the ball, that's still a very nice piece, and I still think there's much more upside possible.  He's only 30 and for all of his other struggles in 2019 he still put up his career high in homers and hit .298 by the end.

Edited by TexArcher
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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4627

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20 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

You guys realize Altuve was our best hitter in the ALCS by far. I'm not worried at all. Spring training is mostly useless these days.

I’m not basing my fears on spring stats.  More basing it on his profile and performance last season (which I agree should be taken with a grain of salt given how abnormal it was).  Moving forward, I will worry at least a little every time Altuve struggles over >200 pa for the reasons I outlined above.

He projects for 3.6 fWAR this season and I will be very happy if he meets that projection.  I would take the under on that number but not by much.  If I had to guess, I would project him for somewhere between 2.7 and 3.2 fWAR.  I expect him to be an above average player the next 3-4 seasons, but I don’t think he will consistently put up star level production.  And it is totally possible for him to fall off a cliff at any time.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19152

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14 minutes ago, patrickdrinksbeer said:


That’s an insane number for LMJ.

If he has a good and healthy year he will make more than that. He’s really ducking good. 
he might be incapable of staying healthy and throwing 160-180 innings. My bet is he can be healthy. 
it’s a bet he can be a 6 war guy over the next 3 years. 

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patrickdrinksbeer

patrickdrinksbeer 793

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If he has a good and healthy year he will make more than that. He’s really ducking good. 
he might be incapable of staying healthy and throwing 160-180 innings. My bet is he can be healthy. 
it’s a bet he can be a 6 war guy over the next 3 years. 

i don’t disagree, but that’s a huge “if” for a dude who’s never thrown more than 128 MLB innings in a season. handing out $18M x 3 right now seems like a huge overpay. He knows the risks, too.
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