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The Robert Mueller Investigation

Hugo Stiglitz

By Hugo Stiglitz
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Goredho
Goredho

Just to make sure I have the alternative facts straight...  Our government -- but I'm guessing only the deep state part of it --- is now guilty of torturing a poor, naive Russian exchange student who

Incredulity
Incredulity

liberals suddenly being terrified of Russia and manic for election integrity is just pure comedy gold.

Chooky
Chooky

I don't believe for a moment that any of this is entertaining to you.  I think it gives you a bit of anxiety knowing that your best weapon against a group who you despise is a bumbling fraud as a busi

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Mdhorn

Mdhorn 5949

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2 hours ago, Mdhorn said:

It's a good thing Trump passed legislation to help all the brain people in DC . That should probably help Manaford some. Wait, he threw Manaford an anchor? Guess they're planning on an all white male jury

got damn spell correct--brown, not brain.  He would have had better odds in Virginia.  Now, they're probably putting all their marbles into getting their judge.  

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45907

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So let's say the Dems take the House (likely) and impeach (less than a slam dunk).  That forces Trump's hand in what ways?  The Senate can't refuse to try.  They can refuse to convict via majority, but that doesn't mean the trial won't be ugly for Trump, and perhaps something he'd rather avoid.  So . . .  ???

I don't think it's the worst strategy to impeach even if a conviction is never going to happen.

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31453

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3 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

I have been assuming that Mueller kept the Manafort non-Russian related prosecution because he also has the Russian related prosecution against Manafort. (1) He may have originally wanted to bring them together but couldn't due to jurisdictional issues, (2) he is already working on Manafort related stuff, so no need to have someone else duplicate the work, and (3) he didn't want to lose any control of the Manafort prosecution. I think (3) is the biggest reason, because Mueller can't have some other prosecutor developing evidence or offering deals in a way that will hurt the Russian collusion related Manafort trial. 

Thing is, though, there is no "collusion" nexus to the DC trial.  There is more of a Russian nexus in that it was apparently primarily Russian money that was laundered.  But most of the allegations of the DC case precede the Trump campaign by several years (circa 2012, many earlier, some later), hence the limitations problems.  https://www.scribd.com/document/381356043/Manafort-kilimnik-Superseding-Indictment-060818

I find it nearly impossible to reconcile the kicking of Cohen and retention of Manafort, other than Mueller didn't want to take any more shit for using the "arising under" portion of the order.

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31453

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One thing about the Cohen plea, which doesn't initially contemplate/recite cooperation, is that it is out of the SDNY.  It is probably more conventional in the SDNY, as it is most places, to plead to something and then, at the time of sentencing, invoke Section 5k1.1 of the Sentencing Guidelines for a sentencing reduction based on substantial assistance and cooperation in the investigation of another.

This is, I believe, even consistent with an agreement "not to challenge any sentence from 46 to 63 months," which I understand to be part of Cohen's plea.  The 5k1.1 accepts the correctness of the sentence, but asks for a reduction based on worthy conduct.

So, as Davis indicates, there may be future cooperation for an as yet unknown sentencing reduction.  And that may make perfect sense as Cohen doesn't have anything that SDNY wants, but has something Mueller wants, so his cooperation there benefits him in SDNY.

Edited by TwiceHorn
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hobbes2702

hobbes2702 13032

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16 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Thing is, though, there is no "collusion" nexus to the DC trial.  There is more of a Russian nexus in that it was apparently primarily Russian money that was laundered.  But most of the allegations of the DC case precede the Trump campaign by several years (circa 2012, many earlier, some later), hence the limitations problems.  https://www.scribd.com/document/381356043/Manafort-kilimnik-Superseding-Indictment-060818

I find it nearly impossible to reconcile the kicking of Cohen and retention of Manafort, other than Mueller didn't want to take any more shit for using the "arising under" portion of the order.

Ukraine is the beginning of the Russian collusion story. That’s why Manafort stays with Mueller

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31453

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8 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

Ukraine is the beginning of the Russian collusion story. That’s why Manafort stays with Mueller

Cohen has a Ukrainian wife.  And purportedly took $400k for access to the Teh Donald.

 

It really doesn't make any sense based on the information available to the public.

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hobbes2702

hobbes2702 13032

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8 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Cohen has a Ukrainian wife.  And purportedly took $400k for access to the Teh Donald.

 

It really doesn't make any sense based on the information available to the public.

Cohen didn’t work for Yanukovych in an effort to move Ukraine toward Russia. Manafort did. It’s that work that is the beginning of the Russian collision case because it’s what put Manafort in financial trouble with the oligarchs. It’s what made him susceptible this time around. Among other things

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

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6 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Cohen has a Ukrainian wife.  And purportedly took $400k for access to the Teh Donald.

 

It really doesn't make any sense based on the information available to the public.

Cohen also has possible NY state charges waiting.  If Trump pardons him, perhaps its easier to move the show to state court from SDNY.  I would imagine that state prosecutors already have their state charges lined up based on state laws that nearly mirror the federal charges. 

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

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4 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

Cohen didn’t work for Yanukovych in an effort to move Ukraine toward Russia. Manafort did. It’s that work that is the beginning of the Russian collision case because it’s what put Manafort in financial trouble with the oligarchs. It’s what made him susceptible this time around. Among other things

For sure, Manafort is a traitor that should be hanging from the hanging tree.  Cohen's just a piece of shit shyster trying to get rich off of other corrupt pieces of shit.  That doesn't mean he doesn't deserve to be on the hanging tree too.  

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31453

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5 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Cohen also has possible NY state charges waiting.  If Trump pardons him, perhaps its easier to move the show to state court from SDNY.  I would imagine that state prosecutors already have their state charges lined up based on state laws that nearly mirror the federal charges. 

What might make more sense is that all Cohen stuff is probably going to be venued somewhere in NY, while Mueller seems quite busy in DC and Va.  Maybe he didn't want to fuck with it in NY.

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

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Keep in mind that Donald J. Trump Foundation institution and its leadership; President Trump, Ivanka, DonJr., and Eric, are being sued by New York’s attorney general, Barbara Underwood, for using the charity to enrich and benefit the Trump family.  They will be in court defending themselves as early as next month.

The Inconvenient Legal Troubles That Lie Ahead for the Trump Foundation

key passage:

"In recent years, the only “contributions” to the charity seem to have been payments from business partners, not from the Trumps or the Trump Organization. The charity’s spending appears to have benefitted the Trumps themselves, not the public welfare. The organization had been operating this way for years, but, according to Underwood, in 2016 the Trump Foundation became an arm of the Trump political campaign, cutting checks to Trump’s political allies in key states just before the election.  If true, this would mean that the Trump Foundation evolved from a mere tax-avoidance scheme into an instrument for carrying out potential acts of campaign-finance fraud. The Attorney General made clear that her evidence could support criminal cases against the Trumps, but she has no jurisdiction to bring such charges, since tax and campaign fraud are federal matters. She referred the case to federal officials, though it seems unlikely that the I.R.S. or the Federal Election Commission would choose to prosecute a sitting President or his children."

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Longhorn94

Longhorn94 2448

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8 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

Thing is, though, there is no "collusion" nexus to the DC trial.  There is more of a Russian nexus in that it was apparently primarily Russian money that was laundered.  But most of the allegations of the DC case precede the Trump campaign by several years (circa 2012, many earlier, some later), hence the limitations problems.  https://www.scribd.com/document/381356043/Manafort-kilimnik-Superseding-Indictment-060818

I find it nearly impossible to reconcile the kicking of Cohen and retention of Manafort, other than Mueller didn't want to take any more shit for using the "arising under" portion of the order.

I think it was to inoculate it against Trump's attacks on Mueller and to make sure that probably the most important key to the investigation, the lynch pin, would not stop even if Trump fired Mueller. What is he going to do run around firing every Asst US Atty that is investigating him? 

Edited by Longhorn94
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J.R.

J.R. 150

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8 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

What might make more sense is that all Cohen stuff is probably going to be venued somewhere in NY, while Mueller seems quite busy in DC and Va.  Maybe he didn't want to fuck with it in NY.

I think Mueller correctly strategized that opening a different front that was not subject to attack as springing from his WITCH HUNT was probably a smart move, and that move is looking quite prescient now.

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kevwun

kevwun 15777

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Chris Hayes had on a retired federal judge and former federal prosecutor last night who were convinced Cohen is going to cooperate. They said cohen’s attorney knows the feds handling the case well and that a sealed agreement or handshake arrange was likely.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

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Analysis/Speculation from an account I follow that always likes to keep the big picture in perspective. 

First and foremost: Trump/Russia is real. It is not a witch hunt. It is not a conspiracy theory. It is not cooked up by a fraudster on 4Chan. It's real. Trump conspired with Russia. He did. That none of yesterday's 16 guilty pleas directly finger Russia is irrelevant.

Anyone who went around yesterday with "But there was no Russia" as a talking point is a desperate Trumpist collaborator, negligently muddying the waters when things should now be clearer. (Looking at you, @LindseyGrahamSC and @mschlapp.)

The first two members of Congress to endorse Trump, Chris Collins and @Rep_Hunter, have both been indicted in the past two weeks. Because they are both hateful, greedy scumbags, and birds of a feather dot dot dot.

The third member of Congress, and first Senator, to endorse Trump was Jeff Sessions. Despite being reinvented as a bulwark against Mueller's firing, Sessions is deeply complicit in Trump/Russia, meeting w/Kislyak, and perjured himself before Congress on the subject.

Sessions is one of the first-tier villains of Trump/Russia, in my view, as I lay out in #DirtyRubles. The others: Mike Flynn, Paul Manafort, Michael Cohen, Jared Kushner, and Donald Trump pere et fils.

Mike Flynn, the disgraced former natsec adviser, was given access to eyes-only secrets by Trump despite multiple high-level warnings, which ALONE warrants impeachment. Flynn has pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI and awaits sentencing.

Manafort is a terrible human being for a thousand reasons. In addition to his basically stealing money from you and me, as a huge tax cheat, he cavorted with dictators. He is PWNED BY PUTIN. Can't stress that enough. More on that will become evident in the weeks to come.

Sidenote: Trump will NOT pardon Manafort. A pardon admits his own guilt, and also, it eliminates Manafort's ability to plead the Fifth. Mueller, or better yet Congress, could immediately summon him to answer questions under oath and he'd HAVE to respond.

Michael Cohen is the linchpin, though. He is a longtime Russian mob associate, and a longtime lawyer/fixer for Trump. How many NDAs has he processed? And worse? He's the guy who threatened violence to the reporter who asked questions about Trump raping Ivana.

The stuff Cohen knows is more than enough to bring down the House of Trump. And it will. And it ain't Mueller driving that particular train, which makes these charges immune to the Mueller/Witch Hunt charge.

Yesterday, in a court of law and under oath, Michael Cohen said that Donald Trump directed him to break the law, to do a felony. This is a HUGE deal, the headline story. This particular felony doesn't directly relate to Russia, it's true. But others do.

 Recall that Michael Cohen was a deputy finance chair of the RNC. That implicates that entire entity (hi, @Reince). It also explains, perhaps, why Republicans in Congress have been so slow to boot Trump out. So much criminality!

Cohen also had meetings with Russians during the campaign, and was involved in the sanctions negotiations with Felix Sater and some pro-Putin Ukrainians. That sounds like Trump/Russia to me.

Also, Michael Cohen has three clients, and one of them is @SeanHannity. Sean tried his best to deflect last night, but he must know the gig is up. He is a close adviser to Trump masquerading as an objective journalist. A fraud. Fox should fire him immediately.

So, of the key players I identify in #DirtyRubles: three are now convicted of crimes (Flynn, Manafort, Cohen) and will serve prison sentences. One is likely a Mueller mole (Sessions). The others are members of Trump's extended family.

Second-tier collaborators include Roger Stone and Julian Assange. I expect both to be indicted before Labor Day. So Stone can wear white to court.

On Kushner: back in December, RUMINT was that his indictment was imminent. Kush hired a crisis PR team and a new lawyer. Then: crickets. Word now is that he's been cooperating SINCE then. We'll see if this is true, because the guy is definitely guilty of crimes.

Ivanka likes to pretend to be an above-it-all, friend-of-the-working-woman feminist, but she's just as corrupt as the rest of them. She met those Russians in the lobby of Trump Tower. Are we to believe she didn't know why they were there?

As for Junior, hey, this looks like the face of a guy who's totally relaxed and not at all preparing himself for a long stint in the hoosegow:

We can't forget Mike Pence, as we often do (by design). He was picked by a felon who will likely die in prison. Which means he was approved by Putin. He chaired the Trump Transition Team. He's guilty af and will never be president.

As for Donald Trump, um, spoiler alert: he's guilty. He knew about everything, he signed off on everything, he's been kissing Putin's ass for years, he's a puppet, he sold out his country for a jump in Q rating and some debt forgiveness. He is a stain on our democracy.

There are many more pieces to this Trump/Russia jigsaw puzzle. How they fit will become more evident from here on out. For example: John Bolton was in deep with Cambridge Analytica #CamAnal ...and in deep in a naughtier way with Mariia Butina. He's the WH National Security Advsr! /end

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

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10 minutes ago, shnsajax said:

One is likely a Mueller mole (Sessions)

Sessions is obviously a Mueller witness and most likely a cooperative one. 

He's clearly not actively covering anything up or doing Trump's dirty work. 

While I think the phrase "Mueller mole" is misleading, it's probably not too far off. 

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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19416

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Aside from his ability to tell all on Trump, the most interesting thing about Cohen to me is what he might know about what other Republicans knowingly took Russian money, either laundered through the NRA or otherwise. I bet there are a lot of guys shitting themselves (more than usual) right now. 

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High Plains Drifter

High Plains Drifter 11045

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This thread is moving faster than I can read.

 

On 8/2/2018 at 7:54 AM, Js1 said:

God damn the cult is so strong. Jeff Sessions was the first major elected official to go out on a fucking limb, endorsing and campaigning with Donald Trump from the very beginning.

Jeff Sessions is a piece of shit, but he was loyal and stuck his neck out for Trump at the beginning.  He's being done wrong.

 

Say what you want about Nixon, but at least he was loyal to his people.

And it took the current DOTUS to make Sessions the good guy.

 

On 8/2/2018 at 7:16 PM, JimmyJames said:

So it’s pretty obvious trump, hannity, the NRA, Lou dobbs, Alex jones, Benedict Mitch, a lot of the trump campaign, the rorbacher guy, Nunes the karate kid and prison suit Paul are traitors. Who else is definitive on your list? 

 

everyone.gif

 

On 8/4/2018 at 6:40 AM, Jack Straw said:

Anyone who self identifies as, or votes for any Republican after Helsinki.  

 

goddamnright.gif

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Post Oak

Post Oak 20211

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I always wondered why Cohen being the Dep RNC chair wasnt getting more play.  It seems obvious to me that Russia was filtering money through Cohen down the line. 

I hope/expect that the RNCs ass wont be able to take the length. 

Looking at you Ronna

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 25947

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4 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

I always wondered why Cohen being the Dep RNC chair wasnt getting more play.  It seems obvious to me that Russia was filtering money through Cohen down the line. 

I hope/expect that the RNCs ass wont be able to take the length. 

Looking at you Ronna

Meh.  Those mormon girls start with the anal really young.  She can take it. 

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Tuco

Tuco 5076

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Aside from his ability to tell all on Trump, the most interesting thing about Cohen to me is what he might know about what other Republicans knowingly took Russian money, either laundered through the NRA or otherwise. I bet there are a lot of guys shitting themselves (more than usual) right now. 

This. But not necessarily from Russians. Cohen was raising funds for the Congressional/Senate war chest for about a year. Does anyone think he followed the rules while doing so? I think that was part of the reason Mueller kicked it to SDNY. He didn’t want any personal incentive for Republicans to attack the SC.
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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

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7 minutes ago, Tuco said:


This. But not necessarily from Russians. Cohen was raising funds for the Congressional/Senate war chest for about a year. Does anyone think he followed the rules while doing so? I think that was part of the reason Mueller kicked it to SDNY. He didn’t want any personal incentive for Republicans to attack the SC.

Along the same lines, Manafort was a Russia(and others)/GOP $ bagman for years.  That’s why we’re going to see Congressmen like Rep. Royce and Sen. Risch come under some scrutiny and that’s probably just scratching the surface.

 

https://www.scribd.com/document/356379792/Complaint-v-Rohrabacher-Royce-and-Risch-to-Fec-With-Media-Release1

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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suddenly shaggy

suddenly shaggy 929

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Lucid said:

Be sure to donate to michael cohens gofundme guys, at a half million dorra we unlock the IMPEACH DRUMPF stretch goal who knows what will happen if we hit a million!!

https://www.gofundme.com/hqjupj-michael-cohen-truth-fund

We buy all of you Russian trolls and pay you to post negative shit about Putin instead. He gets pissed and sends you to Siberia. Win-Win Comrade. 

Edited by suddenly shaggy
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