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The Robert Mueller Investigation


Hugo Stiglitz

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At this point, how many of the bigger points of the dossier have been verified vs. unverified? Hard to prove a negative, but have any even been shown to be unlikely due to verifiable contradictions?


It is likely there are elements in the dossier which are not true. Steele has not claimed multiple, independent verification of all of the claims. He provided what his sources had told him, so that they could be investigated further. And, as with any game of telephone, details are likely to be confused. But certainly major elements have been verified and other have seem likely.
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8 hours ago, Anastasis said:

To be honest, nothing at this point would surprise me. Pee pee tape in play. 

 

But Cohen is still disputing the Prague claim. And he has no reason to lay cover at this point for Trump.

 

If you want me on record, Cohen to Prague didn't happen. 

I'm pretty sure we can put you on the record as "nothing happened" from the very beginning of this entire shitshow of Russian interference, conspiracy, hacking, porn star payoffs, obstruction of justice, campaign/transition officials working in a capacity as foreign assets, and pee pee tapes.  You're just waiting for the facts to come out.  We got it, and both sides have probably done it at some point.  

Edited by Dertyberd
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26 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

Is it possible Cohen's phone was in Prague but he wasn't?

I’m guessing this is the case. No reason for Cohen to lie about it now. Says in his tweet that Mueller knows all. Maybe someone else had his phone for some reason? Cover for that person actually being there?

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1 hour ago, Tuco said:

 


It is likely there are elements in the dossier which are not true. Steele has not claimed multiple, independent verification of all of the claims. He provided what his sources had told him, so that they could be investigated further. And, as with any game of telephone, details are likely to be confused. But certainly major elements have been verified and other have seem likely.

 

The guy is the best in the business and was originally hired by Republicans worried about Trump.  He was the damn station chief for MI6 in Moscow.  People don't pay you that type of coin if he just makes up shit.  He's not some political hack in Florida looking for weirdos who fake their Liberty University degree to be a State Senator.  This guy is the real deal and I seriously doubt he's going to screw his reputation and future earnings potential to make shit up.  He's a professional spy with serious contacts.  If its not true, he's not going to put it in the report people pay a lot of money for.  

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7 minutes ago, Dertyberd said:

The guy is the best in the business and was originally hired by Republicans worried about Trump.  He was the damn station chief for MI6 in Moscow.  People don't pay you the type of coin if he just makes up shit.  He's not some political hack in Florida looking for weirdos who fake their Liberty University degree to be a State Senator.  This guy is the real deal and I seriously doubt he's going to screw his reputation and future earnings potential to make shit up.  He's a professional spy with serious contacts.  If its not true, he's not going to put it in the report people pay a lot of money for.  

The chance that the dossier, or any other intelligence product for that matter, being 100% accurate is virtually impossible. That's not how intelligence works. You get the information you can and assess probabilities. If you're 98% accurate then you hit a goddamn home run. If the percentage of accuracy in the Steele dossier is over 90% then he's earned his reputation as being one of the best in the business. 

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12 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

The chance that the dossier, or any other intelligence product for that matter, being 100% accurate is virtually impossible. That's not how intelligence works. You get the information you can and assess probabilities. If you're 98% accurate then you hit a goddamn home run. If the percentage of accuracy in the Steele dossier is over 90% then he's earned his reputation as being one of the best in the business. 

Not arguing that it is always 100%, but it being "a game of telephone" in the post I quoted is way too simplistic.  I can agree with you on the 90%+ threshold, that's great.  There may be a small amount of details that are wrong, but this guy, at this time, wasn't going to fuck around.  Dude spent his career in Russia or collecting contacts in Russia.  I'm going to say he probably left out a lot of stuff that was more of the "investigate further" variety than he put in.  

It should also give skeptics pause that the Republicans who originally hired Steele did so because he is a Russia expert.  Obviously it wasn't too big of a secret among NY/political circles that Trump was already bought by Russia. 

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15 minutes ago, Dertyberd said:

Not arguing that it is always 100%, but it being "a game of telephone" in the post I quoted is way too simplistic.  I can agree with you on the 90%+ threshold, that's great.  There may be a small amount of details that are wrong, but this guy, at this time, wasn't going to fuck around.  Dude spent his career in Russia or collecting contacts in Russia.  I'm going to say he probably left out a lot of stuff that was more of the "investigate further" variety than he put in.  

It should also give skeptics pause that the Republicans who originally hired Steele did so because he is a Russia expert.  Obviously it wasn't too big of a secret among NY/political circles that Trump was already bought by Russia. 

Agreed. See the recording of McCarthy and Ryan regarding Rohrabacher and Trump being on the Russian payroll. If the Trump campaign wasn't colluding with the Russian gov't to some extent then Steele wouldn't have had any intelligence on the subject to gather in the first place.

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The GOP response to the Dossier was insanely counterproductive and in the end only gave it more legitimacy.  

If the Dossier was bullshit, why did they keep bringing it up?  Why did they put FusionGPS and Steele on trial, behind closed doors no less.  Why did they conceal those transcripts?  Why did Dianne Feinstein have to leak the Glenn Simpson testimony to the public?  Why did Nunes send his goons to London to hunt down Steele? 

If there was nothing to the Dossier, why not just ignore it completely? 

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9 hours ago, Anastasis said:

To be honest, nothing at this point would surprise me. Pee pee tape in play. 

 

But Cohen is still disputing the Prague claim. And he has no reason to lay cover at this point for Trump.

 

If you want me on record, Cohen to Prague didn't happen. 

Are you sure about that? So far as I know, he hasn't publicly said shit about it in a long, long time. And his former lawyer, Lanny Davis, who denied it, hasn't represented him for months.

All we know is that he's been cooperating with the investigation, purportedly fessed up, corrected previous lies from earlier interviews, and now it's reported his phone was pinged in or around Prague.

Given how you openly mocked those of us who started posting about all the Russian shit early in this administration, I wouldn't be making such bold predictions against the veracity of the dossier if I were you.

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1 hour ago, Dertyberd said:

The guy is the best in the business and was originally hired by Republicans worried about Trump.  He was the damn station chief for MI6 in Moscow.  People don't pay you that type of coin if he just makes up shit.  He's not some political hack in Florida looking for weirdos who fake their Liberty University degree to be a State Senator.  This guy is the real deal and I seriously doubt he's going to screw his reputation and future earnings potential to make shit up.  He's a professional spy with serious contacts.  If its not true, he's not going to put it in the report people pay a lot of money for.  

Along with Steele, I think Great Britain has the fucking goods on all this shit. That's why I think Louise Mensch scores a scoop now and then.* I suspect she has ties to an MP with access to intelligence.

*She's also been wrong about plenty of shit, IMO.

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1 minute ago, Grandioso said:

Along with Steele, I think Great Britain has the fucking goods on all this shit. That's why I think Louise Mensch scores a scoop now and then.* I suspect she has ties to an MP with access to intelligence.

*She's also been wrong about plenty of shit, IMO.

The scoop on Cambridge Analytica came out from a Guardian story in February or March of 2017, which I posted on the old site at the beginning of all this (and was roundly mocked). I think you're entirely correct that after the Brexit debacle, there have been quiet investigations going on in the UK.

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6 hours ago, Celery Man said:

Even if he were innocent of any level of involvement, which he is not, he is a narcissist and would fight against the notion that he won for any other reason than he is the best and number one and a winner.

I think that it is impossible to underestimate the profound and pervasive influence of Trump narcissism on absolutely everything that he says and does, including his response to the Russian investigation.

1 hour ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

Is it possible Cohen's phone was in Prague but he wasn't?

I think that it was speculated up thread that somebody could have been using his phone in attempt to hide behind privilege. 

1 hour ago, Dertyberd said:

I'm pretty sure we can put you on the record as "nothing happened" from the very beginning of this entire shitshow of Russian interference, conspiracy, hacking, porn star payoffs, obstruction of justice, campaign/transition officials working in a capacity as foreign assets, and pee pee tapes.  You're just waiting for the facts to come out.  We got it, and both sides have probably done it at some point.  

My thought from the initiation of the Special Counsel's investigation was that it would reveal shady financial transactions related to international real estate and other dealings. A smarter man would have specifically foreseen the shady financial transactions related to covering up porn star and playboy rawdogging on the side. I've opined through out on my impressions of Manafort, Stone, Carter Page, Sessions, etc. I don't think of those impressions have changed too much. Manafort is an operator, if there was collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia to target the influence interference he was in the middle of it.  Stone is a reckless buffoon. Hopefully he gets called up for public testimony before they wrap a bow around this whole thing. Page is fucking moron. Sessions wasn't a player in a collusion operation with Russia, and the Trump campaign was generally a circus show of amateurs and spares, i.e., easy marks. I  felt that an investigation would reveal enough material, no smoking gun wrt direct coordination of the influence campaign but related to other activities, such that a Dem House would impeach, the Senate would fail to remove, and the Dems take over all three branches in 2020.  I think that outcome is still in play. 

 

1 minute ago, bolverk said:

Are you sure about that? So far as I know, he hasn't publicly said shit about it in a long, long time.

Direct from America's preferred forum for the exchange of political ideas and current events.  There are actually two similar posts.

 

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47 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The GOP response to the Dossier was insanely counterproductive and in the end only gave it more legitimacy.  

If the Dossier was bullshit, why did they keep bringing it up?  Why did they put FusionGPS and Steele on trial, behind closed doors no less.  Why did they conceal those transcripts?  Why did Dianne Feinstein have to leak the Glenn Simpson testimony to the public?  Why did Nunes send his goons to London to hunt down Steele? 

If there was nothing to the Dossier, why not just ignore it completely? 

You’re not the target audience for the GOP. It’s really a bunch of yokels that just need to hear ‘nuh uh’ over and over from the dipshits running the R party, mix in a ‘both sides!’ and mission accomplished.  

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@Anastasis

Alright, I stand corrected. Thanks for the correction.

In my defense, I'm still on vacation at my parents' place and haven't spent a great deal of time enmeshed in the latest. I'll be hitting the road back to Austin this afternoon and will be back on the laptop drunkenly posting my best/worst tonight (the folks are Baptists and don't drink).

Cheers.

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Just now, bolverk said:

Alright, I stand corrected. Thanks for the correction.

In my defense, I'm still on vacation at my parents' place and haven't spent a great deal of time enmeshed in the latest. I'll be hitting the road back to Austin this afternoon and will be back on the laptop drunkenly posting my best/worst tonight (the folks are Baptists and don't drink).

Cheers.

I only saw it cause I clicked on a tweet link up thread linking to Cohen's account. 

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What do we think the most likely incriminating evidence will be against DOTUS? Manafort and Cohen could have been the ones to carry out some of the communications b/w the Trump campaign and Russia. We know that Cohen taped a lot of phone conversations. Will Trump be caught talking about it to Cohen over the phone?

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3 minutes ago, retread said:

What do we think the most likely incriminating evidence will be against DOTUS? Manafort and Cohen could have been the ones to carry out some of the communications b/w the Trump campaign and Russia. We know that Cohen taped a lot of phone conversations. Will Trump be caught talking about it to Cohen over the phone?

Don Jr is neck deep in it also and there's no way he didn't talk about it with the Dotard.

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26 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

You’re not the target audience for the GOP. It’s really a bunch of yokels that just need to hear ‘nuh uh’ over and over from the dipshits running the R party, mix in a ‘both sides!’ and mission accomplished.  

I get the strategy but was it really the best strategy or even a good strategy? 

I have my doubts 

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Spoiler alert, Cohen is lying.

He told David Corn in 2016- "I was in Prague [Czech Republic] for one afternoon 14 years ago."

 

 

 

He also apparently told the Washington Post he'd been in Prague for one afternoon in 2001, which is right around that same time period.

He's either been to Prague, at a minimum sometime around 2001, or he lied about it inexplicably to two different reporters separated by about 15 years in time. 

 

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10 hours ago, Ted Lange said:

We know Russia was interfering in the election in favor of Trump.  That is no longer in question.  

Interfering meaning,  hacking the Ds and a coordinated social media campaign against HRC.  

At this point there is nothing we KNOW that states they hacked voting machines or were in cahoots with Trump.

But 100% they were running a campaign to effect th election, that is an absolute given at this point.

So what’s Trump worried about when it comes to investigating the Russian interference?

If he had nothing to do with it, why isn’t he 100% behind the investigation and transparent and leading the charge for more sanctions and holding Putin accountable?

 

8 hours ago, Celery Man said:

Even if he were innocent of any level of involvement, which he is not, he is a narcissist and would fight against the notion that he won for any other reason than he is the best and number one and a winner.

Perfect succinct response by the very next post.  Well-done, and exactly on point.  The answer is "both reasons - guilt AND pathological narcissism."

54 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Well, in the limited political discussions I have engaged over the holidays I have been called a left wing socialist liberal more than a few times. 

Pretty sure I called you a both-sides equivocating piece of shit, or words to that effect.  In the interest of having a complete and accurate record of what you've been called (my label was accurate, though.  Although to be fair, I can certainly see the Trumpkin crowd calling you a commie libtard, because anyone who fails to complete a 100% loyalty oath to Trump gets that label).

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26 minutes ago, Dertyberd said:

You are correct about Manafort, he is an operator who was specifically hired to do this job.  It's not like he just stumbled into the campaign because he was cheap and needed a job because he could count votes at the convention like the cover story says.  He's had an apartment in Trump tower for years and was known as Yanukovych's guy. 

Stone is a buffoon, but he's not reckless.  He knew the stolen emails came from Russian and he worked to make sure the release of them was timed correctly.  He's been in the game his entire life and knows what he was doing was wrong, but never thought he'd get caught.  Don't forget that he was communicating with Assange, a known Russian asset, to facilitate all of it.  

Sure Jr. was an easy mark and amateur, but he was fucking thrilled to invite Russians to his dads office to get the dirt on Hillary.  He's not that fucking stupid to think, "hey, this might not be a good idea to use an enemy of the United States to help us win an election."  That shit doesn't fly and Trump's attempt cover it up on AF1 about adoptions makes it pretty clear they knew what he did was wrong.  All of them.  

You forget that you had Flynn on the campaign, who is no amateur either who just happened to be at the dinner with Jill Stein before the campaign began.  The judge just recently called him a fucking traitor to his face.  This isn't some rag tag bunch of misfits like you want to claim.  They may be dumbasses for thinking they could get away with it, but they sure as shit knew what the fuck they were doing.  

You may be right about Sessions, but he knew they meeting was wrong or he wouldn't have lied about it so many times.  You don't lie if you aren't hiding something.  No fucking clue what Page is all about.  You conveniently forget the server in Trump Tower communicating with Alfa-Bank in Moscow during the election, Eric Prince and his meeting in the Seychelles with Russians, Trumps decades long attempts to build Trump Moscow,  and his relationships that got him the Miss Universe pageant.  

This isn't some clown car bullshit that you want to keep throwing out there.  I know it's disingenuous shit that you do, just like the "both siding" of every fucking political post on this board.  It's like it's your job to minimize everything and sew doubt for the people not really paying attention.  You spend way to much time on this board to not know what the hell is actually going on and you're obviously smart enough to know what you are doing and it's bogus.  Just own it and fight for what you believe instead of this half ass attempt to sound reasonable.  It's so old.  

You lost me at Don Jr and ‘not that fucking stupid’.  

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2 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

You lost me at Don Jr and ‘not that fucking stupid’.  

Ha! Fair enough,  he is smart enough to speak in complete, albeit sometimes moronic, sentences however.  He also has managed not to choke on anything while spending his entire life breathing through his mouth.  

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1 minute ago, Dertyberd said:

Ha! Fair enough,  he is smart enough to speak in complete, albeit sometimes moronic, sentences however.  He also has managed not to choke on anything while spending his entire life breathing through his mouth.  

It’s a miracle he’s survived up to this point.  Having to breathe and walk simultaneously on a daily basis can’t be easy for the poor bastard.  His old man doesn’t even know how to sit in chairs.  And that guy considers Jr to be a complete fucking idiot.  

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So the theory now is that Cohen loaned his phone to someone who took it to Prague?

THAT'S what we're running with?

How about "Cohen was doing some real shady shit in Prague and is lying to cover his ass because he doesn't want to be executed"?  Doesn't that get a little closer to the likely explanation?

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Cohen was supposedly traveling with three other people.  I'd put Rick Gates and Felix Sater as highly probable companions on that business venture.  

Gates because Cohen was tasked with cleaning up the Manafort mess and Sater because he was in on the shady deals with the Kremlin. 

 

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13 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Cohen was supposedly traveling with three other people.  I'd put Rick Gates and Felix Sater as highly probable companions on that business venture.  

Gates because Cohen was tasked with cleaning up the Manafort mess and Sater because he was in on the shady deals with the Kremlin. 

 

So you're saying that Cohen was in Germany or somewhere close, Gates/Sater stole his phone, and slipped across the border into Prague .... why? Why would either of those men steal their friend's phone? 

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1 minute ago, Hornius Emeritus said:

 

So you're saying that Cohen was in Germany or somewhere close, Gates/Sater stole his phone, and slipped across the border into Prague .... why? Why would either of those men steal their friend's phone? 

I am not saying that.  I’m saying whatever went down is probably already known to prosecutors because Gates and Sater are snitches.

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7 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

If I recall correctly Cohen admitted to being in Europe around that timeframe but denied being in Prague.  

Correct, and his "proof" was his (pair of) passports.  This is, of course, absurd, because one's passport is not typically checked when travelling between countries in the Schengen zone.

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13 minutes ago, Hornius Emeritus said:

 

So you're saying that Cohen was in Germany or somewhere close, Gates/Sater stole his phone, and slipped across the border into Prague .... why? Why would either of those men steal their friend's phone? 

Keep in mind we are speculating, but Cohen could have given his phone to the person attending the meeting under the assumption that the communications would be protected since he was an attorney.  And they’re all stupid arrogant fucks.

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10 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Correct, and his "proof" was his (pair of) passports.  This is, of course, absurd, because one's passport is not typically checked when travelling between countries in the Schengen zone.

Mine was checked traveling from Holland to Belgium and Belgium to France by train. No idea if different by plane.

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Just now, shnsajax said:

Mine was checked traveling from Holland to Belgium and Belgium to France by train. No idea if different by plane.

It may be "checked," but it isn't stamped as there is no formal requirement for passage in the Schengen area.  I had it checked when I boarded a train in Germany heading for Austria, but that was along the lines of an ID check, not an immigration/passport checkpoint, because those aren't a thing in the Schengen area.  So, someone may have LOOKED at Cohen's passport if he traveled into Prague, but there wouldn't be a stamp.  Which was his point -- "look, see, no stamp!"  I have been to Austria, but I don't have an "Austria" stamp in my passport.  Because Schengen.

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You know, I kind of believe Cohen. He said  Mueller knows everything at the end of the first tweet. Maybe he is fucking with someone's head...scaring them. Maybe another snitch is holding back about this part and he's trying to goad them to the truth. Or it is Jr. and he wants to scare him and the old man. Whatever the story, we are going to find out when the house committee goes searching for answers.

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