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The Robert Mueller Investigation


Hugo Stiglitz

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3 minutes ago, shnsajax said:

Mueller doesn't want him to?

Mueller probably doesn’t want him talking publicly at all but Cohen has already blown that request.  

Cohen is a career criminal and will only make public statements that make him look favorable. 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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31 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

Keep in mind we are speculating, but Cohen could have given his phone to the person attending the meeting under the assumption that the communications would be protected since he was an attorney.  And they’re all stupid arrogant fucks.

If Cohen thought that he has to be the stupidest attorney on the planet, which he may well also be.   Having an attorney's phone in your possession can't possibly give you attorney client privilege. 

If we're speculating, though, my money's on the McClatchey story is slightly off, and Cohen was at that meeting by cell phone.

27 minutes ago, shnsajax said:

Mine was checked traveling from Holland to Belgium and Belgium to France by train. No idea if different by plane.

Not sure when they do or don't stamp passports, but when I flew to Finland last year connecting in Germany, my passport stamp is just for Germany.

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Cohen is cooperating with the Mueller investigation.  I think the most likely scenario is the Mueller told him to not say a fucking thing about anything he has admitted to.  He is not protecting Trump.  He is an idiot, a dedicated liar, and is playing some sort of game trying to carry out Mueller's instructions, while basking the limelight which will translate to money eventually. There is no point in listening to anything he says.  

I don't know if he has been to Prague, but, to me, the explanation above makes a hell of a lot more sense than sending someone to Prague with his phone.  I mean, that explanation would highlight this comical planning of this particular group of idiots, but I don't see them even having the foresight to form that bungled of a plan. 

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Realize this Cohen/Prague talk has re-surfaced due to reporting based off of sourcing from foreign intel gathering, not Mueller leaks.  Expect more of this shortly, particularly when House hearings commence.  Another notable example is the recordings possessed by Spain that directly implicate Jr. wrt coordinating with Russian actors.

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13 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

If Cohen thought that he has to be the stupidest attorney on the planet, which he may well also be.   Having an attorney's phone in your possession can't possibly give you attorney client privilege. 

If we're speculating, though, my money's on the McClatchey story is slightly off, and Cohen was at that meeting by cell phone.

Not sure when they do or don't stamp passports, but when I flew to Finland last year connecting in Germany, my passport stamp is just for Germany.

I didn’t mean he would have given someone his phone just for that reason.  More like if the other person were worried about the security of their phone, so Cohen offered his to give them plausible deniability.   Then Cohen could also deny being there “look at my passport!” and also figured his phone would never be seized.   But yeah, that seems a little beyond their planning capabilities. 

Edited to say that the scenario stated above is much more likely, that he either called into the meeting or called someone who was there.  

Edited by Judge Roybeanbag
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5 minutes ago, Tuco said:

Cohen is cooperating with the Mueller investigation.  I think the most likely scenario is the Mueller told him to not say a fucking thing about anything he has admitted to.  He is not protecting Trump.  He is an idiot, a dedicated liar, and is playing some sort of game trying to carry out Mueller's instructions, while basking the limelight which will translate to money eventually. There is no point in listening to anything he says.  

I don't know if he has been to Prague, but, to me, the explanation above makes a hell of a lot more sense than sending someone to Prague with his phone.  I mean, that explanation would highlight this comical planning of this particular group of idiots, but I don't see them even having the foresight to form that bungled of a plan. 

Cohen had how many phones seized again? He could have easily passed along one of his other ones to be used. The dossier also talks about how to pass along payment and he could have easily stayed in another country working on that at the same time at Deutsche Bank.  Frankfurt to Prague isn't exactly much of a flight or train ride. 

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1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Cohen was supposedly traveling with three other people.  I'd put Rick Gates and Felix Sater as highly probable companions on that business venture.  

Gates because Cohen was tasked with cleaning up the Manafort mess and Sater because he was in on the shady deals with the Kremlin. 

 

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Redacted would be a cool user name.  

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

It may be "checked," but it isn't stamped as there is no formal requirement for passage in the Schengen area.  I had it checked when I boarded a train in Germany heading for Austria, but that was along the lines of an ID check, not an immigration/passport checkpoint, because those aren't a thing in the Schengen area.  So, someone may have LOOKED at Cohen's passport if he traveled into Prague, but there wouldn't be a stamp.  Which was his point -- "look, see, no stamp!"  I have been to Austria, but I don't have an "Austria" stamp in my passport.  Because Schengen.

Yeah - customs over there is very hit/miss. Went thru Frankfort in 2013 and it was a drive by at customs - all they were looking for was a hand holding a passport up as you walked by. Same thing in Singapore which seemed really odd.

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33 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Shit, going from Austria to Switzerland, the border "guard" was literally looking the other way and waving people through.

I go to Europe a couple times a year and I don't know that I've ever seen a border guard.

Headed over to Prague for 3 months in February (give or take a couple weeks for skiing in Switzerland and France), so I'll ask around about Cohen. 😉

Edited by DixonHur
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2 hours ago, lemonlime said:

Not sure when they do or don't stamp passports, but when I flew to Finland last year connecting in Germany, my passport stamp is just for Germany.

You get processed in the first Schengen country you hit.  You may be checked for identification purposes, but you've already been processed and admitted into the Schengen Area through your first Schengen destination (in your case, Germany) and you will not have your passport stamped again until you are leaving the Schengen Zone (whether out of Europe or into a non-Schengen European country such as the UK, Ireland, Croatia, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.).  And in most cases, other than a cursory glance that your name matches your train ticket/boarding pass, you won't ever have to remove your passport from your bag. 

And you definitely won't meet an immigration official going to Prague from another Schengen country, as Cohen clearly did.

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Just now, Brisketexan said:

Although to be fair, I can certainly see the Trumpkin crowd calling you a commie libtard, because anyone who fails to complete a 100% loyalty oath to Trump gets that label).

Well, these aren't really Trumpkins, imo. A range of professions and political leanings, but mostly though not exclusively conservatives from Texas.  We were talking Beto.  None of them like Beto.  I like certain things about Beto, most notably he strikes me as an actual human being and appears to genuinely believe most of the stuff he says.  I generally would prefer politicians that hold a position based on some convictions, even if I don't agree with some of their policy positions. That's enough to make me a socialist in today's political discourse.  

12 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Pretty sure I called you a both-sides equivocating piece of shit, or words to that effect.  In the interest of having a complete and accurate record of what you've been called (my label was accurate, though.

We know dude. You don't take it well when somebody points out to you that our immigration policy is a cluster fuck as result of a long history of political dysfunction related to the issue.  But I will say that you have toned the psychopathic rhetoric down a bit, at least when it is directed at someone that you essentially agree with in terms of a framework for a functional immigration policy.  

 

52 minutes ago, Dertyberd said:

You are correct about Manafort, he is an operator who was specifically hired to do this job.  It's not like he just stumbled into the campaign because he was cheap and needed a job because he could count votes at the convention like the cover story says.  He's had an apartment in Trump tower for years and was known as Yanukovych's guy. 

Stone is a buffoon, but he's not reckless.  He knew the stolen emails came from Russian and he worked to make sure the release of them was timed correctly.  He's been in the game his entire life and knows what he was doing was wrong, but never thought he'd get caught.  Don't forget that he was communicating with Assange, a known Russian asset, to facilitate all of it.  

Sure Jr. was an easy mark and amateur, but he was fucking thrilled to invite Russians to his dads office to get the dirt on Hillary.  He's not that fucking stupid to think, "hey, this might not be a good idea to use an enemy of the United States to help us win an election."  That shit doesn't fly and Trump's attempt cover it up on AF1 about adoptions makes it pretty clear they knew what he did was wrong.  All of them.  

You forget that you had Flynn on the campaign, who is no amateur either who just happened to be at the dinner with Jill Stein before the campaign began.  The judge just recently called him a fucking traitor to his face.  This isn't some rag tag bunch of misfits like you want to claim.  They may be dumbasses for thinking they could get away with it, but they sure as shit knew what the fuck they were doing.  

 You may be right about Sessions, but he knew they meeting was wrong or he wouldn't have lied about it so many times.  You don't lie if you aren't hiding something.  No fucking clue what Page is all about.  You conveniently forget the server in Trump Tower communicating with Alfa-Bank in Moscow during the election, Eric Prince and his meeting in the Seychelles with Russians, Trumps decades long attempts to build Trump Moscow,  and his relationships that got him the Miss Universe pageant.  

This isn't some clown car bullshit that you want to keep throwing out there.  I know it's disingenuous shit that you do, just like the "both siding" of every fucking political post on this board.  It's like it's your job to minimize everything and sew doubt for the people not really paying attention.  You spend way to much time on this board to not know what the hell is actually going on and you're obviously smart enough to know what you are doing and it's bogus.  Just own it and fight for what you believe instead of this half ass attempt to sound reasonable.  It's so old.  

We generally agree about Manafort.

I think Stone is in fact reckless, for the reasons you outline.

I think Jr. may very well be that stupid.

I did not mention Flynn, but my assessment of him is that he let a singular focus on the threat of radical islam drive his political maneuvering, his view of the strategic alliances necessary to effectively battle radical islam, as well as his private sector actions.  A good measure of simple greed also drove the latter. He shouldn't have lied to the FBI about his interactions with Kislyak. 

The assessment of Sessions on this board has run the range from colluding traitor to savior of the republic.  I don't think he is either.  I think he is a power seeking political dinosaur from one of the most backwards states in the union. But I do think that he has some self-preservation instincts and that if he had something truly nefarious to hide in terms of traitorous collusion and coordination with Russia to influence the US election, he wouldn't have recused himself and would have managed his risk exposure.

Prince is an evil mother fucker. The spectrum alfa bank trump tower DNS trails are very interesting. I look forward to seeing those connections addressed in Mueller's read out.  If it can be demonstrated via compelling evidence that there was a coordinated effort to transmit, for example, micro targeting data from Kushner's operation in SA via Trump servers to Russian agents who then shaped the content of their campaign and their targeting based on that information, well set up the gallows and make it a federal holiday so people can watch the executions on TV. 

As far as the Trump campaign, it was a disorganized clown show.  I don't think that the campaign was capable of colluding strategically or coordinating tactically with themselves, much less coordinating in a meaningful way with a foreign government.  I think that you had a bunch of people operating with their own immediate interests in mind, trying to kick way beyond their coverage, generally acting like amateurs doing shit that was reckless, and making themselves easy marks for a variety of intelligence operations, one of which was Russia.

And as far as owning what I believe, here you go.  I believe that the Russian influence campaign, although technically sophisticated in the sense that they integrated multiple streams of data for deployment broadly across multiple platforms, was not particularly sophisticated in terms of content or the psychology involved. It was based on phishing a campaign staffer to expose the embarrassing internal communications of the HRC campaign and the DNC, and photoshopping pictures of jesus arm wrestling satan and posting them on facebook.  Real James Bond shit. To the extent that their efforts were successful, they were not because of some essential colluding counterpart (Note: I would do a 180 on this point if coordination along the lines of what I outlined up post, in terms of coordinated content development and targeting was demonstrated). They were successful because we are a fundamentally broken society, with dysfunctional political parties, a corrupted political system, and an electorate with an attention span that is measured in three digit character count. The Russians exploited the weaknesses that originated from our toxic  political environment, and yep, the responsibility for that is broad. Until we address the fundamental flaws that cut across almost every institution of our culture and society, until we make broad reforms in our political system including preferably a major realignment of our political parties, we're going to keep marching right into the turns of our political death spiral. We can and should flush out who exactly was coordinating with foreigners to influence American institutions and the election process. We can and should hang traitors.  We can and should knee cap Russia. But none of that is going to change the ultimate trajectory of the American empire. It will end as most do, the result of internal decay.  

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40 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I believe that the Russian influence campaign, although technically sophisticated in the sense that they integrated multiple streams of data for deployment broadly across multiple platforms, was not particularly sophisticated in terms of content or the psychology involved. It was based on phishing a campaign staffer to expose the embarrassing internal communications of the HRC campaign and the DNC, and photoshopping pictures of jesus arm wrestling satan and posting them on facebook.  Real James Bond shit.

It doesn't take Bill Belichick to devise a scheme that can beat Reagan High School.  Sometimes it's best to keep it simple when that's all it takes.

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15 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Anastasis loves to pretend there’s a debate on whether or not the Russians were solely responsible for the Trump presidency or had a meaningful impact on the outcome of election.

The Russians were going to win regardless of the outcome of the election.  They just won more with Trump.

huh? solely or somewhat? 

Anastasis post is spot on IMO.

sorry, maybe i don't understand your post or that last sentence. i am an amateur here, i only dip in to say something if i think we have scored. have we scored yet? i am ready to win. someone let me know when we are about to win. i want to make sure my buzz is just right and on the up and up

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5 minutes ago, staboner said:

huh? solely or somewhat? 

 Anastasis post is spot on IMO.

See JimmyJames quote above.  Anastasis believes the Russian influence campaign wasn’t as influential or as sophisticated as it’s made out to be because he just knows.  

The truth is none of us really knows because the impact of the Russian interference isn’t measurable.  This makes for a great endless debate while missing the big point that the Russians attacked the heart of American democracy.  Who gives a shit if they were successful?  

Its like saying, “yeah they bombed our interstates, but no one died so why should we care so much?”  

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2 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

See JimmyJames quote above.  Anastasis believes the Russian influence campaign wasn’t as influential or as sophisticated as it’s made out to be because he just knows.  

The truth is none of us really knows because the impact of the Russian interference isn’t measurable.  This makes for a great endless debate while missing the big point that the Russians attacked the heart of American democracy.  Who gives a shit if they were successful?  

Its like saying, “yeah they bombed our interstates, but no one died so why should we care so much?”  

i read his post above as in our side - trumps - aren't sophisticated in this. and i tend to agree with that. more of a bottoms up than a tops down, well calculated undertaking

on the russian side i would color it unsophisticated but very intelligent. or just that we as a society are just that vulnerable and stupid, also his point in his post

somewhat semantics, but regardless of those semantics i don't see Anastatis as making excuses or minimizing the issue, but rather trying to put the magnifying glass on us and how we are vulnerable and broken, and once this is all 'done' we still will be. gotta agree there

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Most of Anastasis post was spot on and he’s right about the underlying problem being our vulnerabilities.  However, the minimizing of the Russian effort is also what keeps us vulnerable to future attacks.   If we don’t confront the Russia shit by increasing awareness of exactly what they’re doing, we are only giving them an even bigger green light to keep doing what they’re doing.  

Moreover, by exposing the Russian practices, it makes us less vulnerable to other similar attacks by bad actors both foreign and domestic.  The domestic attacks mimicking Kremlin tradecraft are actually more of a threat now IMO.  Shining the biggest spotlight on the Russian effort helps us defend ourselves from the Jill Steins and Trumps of the future because we will have a better idea of what to look for. 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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One need not be sophisticated to work with and be manipulated by a much more sophisticated foreign actor.  The idea that there's no way Trump and his cronies are complicit simply because they're idiots is . . . well, it's idiotic.

We know Russia has compromising information on Trump.  What does Russia do with compromising information? They don't fucking sit on it when it would serve a greater purpose, that's for sure.  The degree to which some of you bend over backwards to assume the minimally offensive crimes from Trump is mind-boggling.  Think.

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The psychographic profiling and predictions around social preferences and behavior in response to stimuli were tested and highly operational in 2016 thanks to Cambridge Analytica.  It’s potent stuff and dangerous in the wrong hands.  It’s why people pay a lot of money to CA.  It’s also in Flynn and Bannon’s wheelhouse.

Ad in Facebook, Twitter, coordinating with foreign fake news troll farms etc, aka Project Alamo, and there you go.  You can get a Whopper w cheese elected with that concoction, and they did.  

 

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10 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

The psychographic profiling and predictions around social preferences and behavior in response to stimuli were tested and highly operational in 2016 thanks to Cambridge Analytica.  It’s potent stuff and dangerous in the wrong hands.  It’s why people pay a lot of money to CA.  It’s also in Flynn and Bannon’s wheelhouse.

Ad in Facebook, Twitter, coordinating with foreign fake news troll farms etc, aka Project Alamo, and there you go.  You can get a Whopper w cheese elected with that concoction, and they did.  

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I dunno, seems kinda sophisticated. 

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5 hours ago, triplehorn said:

Realize this Cohen/Prague talk has re-surfaced due to reporting based off of sourcing from foreign intel gathering, not Mueller leaks.  Expect more of this shortly, particularly when House hearings commence.  Another notable example is the recordings possessed by Spain that directly implicate Jr. wrt coordinating with Russian actors.

Can you expound upon the Spanish recordings? There might be something in my brain that can remember that string but, if you'll indulge me, please pull on it because I don't have much recollection of the details.

Thanks.

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Psychological manipulation of the public at large is neither new nor illegal (hope I got my grammar right there but perhaps not). It’s being going on for time memorial.

One major difference nowadays is that social media has made it infinitely more powerful and potentially infinitely more destructive.

What trump may or may not have done, he utilized that fact for his benefit (again not illegal) 

But, however, with possibly the substantial assistance of a hostile foreign power to advance its own interests at the detriment of America.

And that is illegal, dangerous, treason, and worthy of hanging if true. 

It’s why trump rants over and over “no collusion.”

Which of course means if proven liar trump says it’s not true, means it definitely did happen. Everything he says is a lie.

Trump supporters unwittingly support treason. They’ve been manipulated. And Fox News, Alex, the NRA, and much of the right wing has been paid off to support it. 

Edited by JimmyJames
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3 hours ago, bolverk said:

Can you expound upon the Spanish recordings? There might be something in my brain that can remember that string but, if you'll indulge me, please pull on it because I don't have much recollection of the details.

Thanks.

- Spanish police have turned over to the FBI wiretaps of conversations involving Alexander Torshin, a prominent Russian banker suspected of money laundering who met with President Donald Trump's eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., during the 2016 US presidential election.

- When José Grinda, a Spanish prosecutor who spearheads investigations into organized crime, was asked if he was concerned about Torshin's interactions with Trump Jr. or other American political figures, Grinda replied: "Mr. Trump's son should be concerned."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.businessinsider.com/fbi-obtains-alexander-torshin-wiretaps-from-spanish-police-2018-5

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3 hours ago, staboner said:

 somewhat semantics, but regardless of those semantics i don't see Anastatis as making excuses or minimizing the issue, but rather trying to put the magnifying glass on us and how we are vulnerable and broken, and once this is all 'done' we still will be. gotta agree there

 We can and should address our problems with Russia.  And if Putin were to disappear from the face of the earth tomorrow and be replaced by an allied partner, or just a less hostile one, we would have the same dysfunctional fundamentals to our culture and politics. Our trajectory would remain unchanged. 

3 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 Anastasis believes the Russian influence campaign wasn’t as influential or as sophisticated as it’s made out to be because he just knows.  

 The truth is none of us really knows because the impact of the Russian interference isn’t measurable.  This makes for a great endless debate while missing the big point that the Russians attacked the heart of American democracy.  Who gives a shit if they were successful?  

The impact of various actions and the variety of story lines that played out during the 2016 campaign are in fact measurable, to a certain extent. And as more information is disclosed by Mueller the analysis can be further refined.  Note that I have always been strongly in favor of full disclosure of all of Mueller's findings and the evidence used to generate those findings precisely because it is so fundamental to our democracy. Declassify everything related to attempts to influence the outcome of the 2016 election.

Nate Silver did a pretty robust assessment on the influence of Comey's letter to Congress, and it's impact on the election.  The reality is that the acute actions of the Director of the FBI were likely a much more influential "attack on the heart of American democracy" than the Russians posting diffuse memes and divisive content on facebook. But he's your homey. 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/

He breaks down the impact of Russian influence in this piece.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-did-russian-interference-affect-the-2016-election/

1. Russian interference is hard to measure because it wasn’t a discrete event.

You know what probably did cost Clinton the election? The letter that former FBI Director James Comey sent to Congress on Oct. 28, 2016, and the subsequent media firestorm over it. The impact is relatively easy to measure because it was the biggest news event in the final two weeks of the campaign, and we can compare polls conducted just before the Comey letter to the ones conducted just after it.1

Russian interference isn’t like that. By contrast, the indictment (and previous reporting on the subject) suggests that the interference campaign had been underway for years (since at least 2014) and gradually evolved from a more general-purpose trolling operation into something that sought to undermine Clinton while promoting Trump (and to a lesser degree, Bernie Sanders). To the extent it mattered, it would have blended into the background and had a cumulative effect over the entirety of the campaign.

2. The magnitude of the interference revealed so far is not trivial but is still fairly modest as compared with the operations of the Clinton and Trump campaigns.

3. Thematically, the Russian interference tactics were consistent with the reasons Clinton lost.

 

2016 was a total fucking shit show, top to bottom. We need to own that shit, and address the core problems. But we won't. It's never easy to come to grips with the fact that the fundamental problem is staring you right in the mirror. Much easier to point fingers at Jill Stein the NPD crippled orange man, and act like the root dysfunction in our political system and electorate doesn't exist.  

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1 hour ago, triplehorn said:

- When José Grinda, a Spanish prosecutor who spearheads investigations into organized crime, was asked if he was concerned about Torshin's interactions with Trump Jr. or other American political figures, Grinda replied: "Mr. Trump's son should be concerned."

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11 hours ago, Anastasis said:

 And if Putin were to disappear from the face of the earth tomorrow and be replaced by an allied partner, or just a less hostile one, we would have the same dysfunctional fundamentals to our culture and politics. Our trajectory would remain unchanged. 

What a fucking miserable fatalistic outlook.  Do you even American bro ? 

And it's asinine to think things would be unchanged having any competent POTUS who understands basic civil government compared to one 100% suborned by the leader of the world's biggest mafia state. 

 

Quote

The reality is that the acute actions of the Director of the FBI were likely a much more influential "attack on the heart of American democracy" than the Russians posting diffuse memes and divisive content on facebook. But he's your homey. 

Ever heard of Yevgeniy Nikulin ?  Hint: he's Russian.

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one thing we need to keep in mind is this miserable situation has had free rein to fester for half a century.  it's a new ballgame now, and the blasé attitude of the public at large and the various governments aren't going to be that way - probably ever again.  it's going to be difficult here to pull that murdoch kind of shit in the future.

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11 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Nate Silver, who has no inside knowledge of the scope or breadth of the Russian attack, proves the Comey memo was more influential that the Russian attack eh?  Well that’s bullshit because the two events were related.

good edit. thats overboard. there are far worst posters on this board who are actually trolls. 

its a push/pull semantics. we disagree on where we see the problem having the most weight. thats fine. doesn't make one a troll. i agree with Anastasis and tend to put the issue more on our side and our dysfunctional society and government. so be it. it ain't the end of the world and it certainly doesn't mean we don't agree here on most of this. 

happy weekend friends. 

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10 minutes ago, staboner said:

its a push/pull semantics. we disagree on where we see the problem having the most weight. thats fine. doesn't make one a troll. i agree with Anastasis and tend to put the issue more on our side and our dysfunctional society and government. so be it. it ain't the end of the world and it certainly doesn't mean we don't agree here on most of this. 

The underlying problem is us, our corruption and ignorance is to blame.  We all agree on that.  

Where we disagree is on acknowledging that we ALSO need to defend ourselves from the shit the Russians are pulling before our situation gets worse due to not standing up for ourselves.

If someone is repeatedly kicking you in the dick do you just look in the mirror and blame yourself for getting kicked in the dick? 

No, you protect your dick and let the whole world know this asshole over here is a dick kicker.  Maybe bitch slap his ass too so he stops kicking dick.

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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13 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Nate Silver, who has no inside knowledge of the scope or breadth of the Russian attack, proves the Comey memo was more influential that the Russian attack eh?  Well that’s bullshit because the two events were related.

A compelling deconstruction of his analysis. 

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