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The Robert Mueller Investigation

Hugo Stiglitz

By Hugo Stiglitz
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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

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What are the sentencing guidelines for Manafort? It seems to me that without those financial shadiness crimes aren’t terrible.  he’d only be looking at a decade or something.

Jeffrey Skilling is about to be out of jail.  On the other Bernie Madoff’s great great grandkids will die serving out his term.  

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Goredho
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Just to make sure I have the alternative facts straight...  Our government -- but I'm guessing only the deep state part of it --- is now guilty of torturing a poor, naive Russian exchange student who

Incredulity
Incredulity

liberals suddenly being terrified of Russia and manic for election integrity is just pure comedy gold.

Chooky
Chooky

I don't believe for a moment that any of this is entertaining to you.  I think it gives you a bit of anxiety knowing that your best weapon against a group who you despise is a bumbling fraud as a busi

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jimmyjazz

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12 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Prison is the safest place for Paulie if he has clear evidence of Trump colluding with Putin. 

I would so rather be on the lam on some underdeveloped equatorial island than sitting in prison for the rest of my life.  Find me, kill me.  It's way better in the meantime.

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31267

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Bank fraud has a maximum penalty of 30 years and no mandatory minimum. 18 USC 1344.

Tax evasion carries a five year maximum.  Also no minimum.  26 USC 7201

Theoretically, each separate proven "count" or incident of bank fraud or tax fraud could carry a separate 30/5 year penalty, which could run consecutively.  This is called "stacking."

However, stacking sentences seems to be the exception rather than the rule in "white collar" criminal cases.

The Sentencing Guidelines give a complicated calculus for getting from 0 to 30 years, or 0 to 5 years, and that is virtually impossible to predict with the facts we have at hand.  A bigger element in the calculation is the "loss number" or the monetary losses actually caused by the crime.  As a general rule, though, white collar criminals get the lower end of the range because "white collar" is a euphemism for upper or upper middle class white person with whom the judge identifies, so they don't have the heart to hammer down on them, except in the case of Madoffs, etc.  This is, of course, in stark contrast to the crimes committed by browns or bleks or other lower-class defendants, who regularly get buttfucked by mandatory minimums and complete lack of identification/sympathy from the judge.

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TwiceHorn

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3 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

What are the odds he cops a plea before next Tuesday?

I might guess that if he gets shithammered by Mueller and roughly sentenced by Ellis in this immediately upcoming trial, odds might be decent he takes a plea in the money laundering case.

 

Most accounts I read seem to indicate that he has yet to absorb the amount of trouble he is in.

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triplehorn

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56 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Div3IprVQAANGoT?format=jpg&name=medium

Hmmmm...

The above is consistent with everything I’ve thought all along, yet reading that just made me feel slightly enraged.

Whats the largest coordinated bribery scheme known in history ?  

Because it sure looks like Putin and the Russian oligarchs found their marks and have bottomless pockets to keep making it happen their way.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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5 minutes ago, pyrohornIII said:

I take it this was taken from an email?  I'd like to see the rest of it, as that next sentence seems to allude to more explanation of NRA intentions.

Div3IoiVsAAgnPs?format=jpg&name=medium

Read more here:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2017/12/03/us/politics/trump-putin-russia-nra-campaign.amp.html

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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Tuco

Tuco 5076

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14 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

HPSCI Minority Views on Russia report - see here:

https://t.e2ma.net/click/lo0ju/h1f5ll/tm4vvf 

The continuation is enlightening, but I can't it to copy over cleanly.  Basically Torshin wanted to meet with a high ranking campaign official just prior to Trump's NRA speech, and was looking to set up a meeting between Trump and Putin, and eventually have DJT visit for a summit on Christian persecution in Russia.  And, yeah, sure, Don Jr. met with Torshin, but the majority report concluded there was no evidence they discussed the election.  The majority blocked any attempt to interview Torshin, Butina, or Erickson. 

 

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atomheartbevo

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2 hours ago, triplehorn said:

The above is consistent with everything I’ve thought all along, yet reading that just made me feel slightly enraged.

Whats the largest coordinated bribery scheme known in history ?  

The attempt to convince the world that Texas A&M University is a legitimate university?

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Pig Bellmont

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16 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Manafort is in a no win situation at this point.  Even if he cuts a deal, he is still going to jail for a while.  Also, I believe prosecutors want Manafort to flip on the Russian intelligence services and not so much Trump.  That’s also a death sentence.

Manafort’s only hope is to get a pardon and flee the country.

Mueller is sandbagging the crimes related to the campaign. There’s still leverage if Trump starts further abusing the pardon power 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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17 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Mueller is sandbagging the crimes related to the campaign. There’s still leverage if Trump starts further abusing the pardon power 

Oh, I 100% agree with this. Trump pardoning Manafort is a trap. 

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Tuco

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I'm sure anyone who has received a jury summons for Fed court in Virginia in the last couple of weeks is shitting themselves.  Should be a nice long complicated trial, about banking, and as an added value, you and your family may become the target of the Russian mafia and neo-nazis.  

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TwiceHorn

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3 hours ago, Tuco said:

I'm sure anyone who has received a jury summons for Fed court in Virginia in the last couple of weeks is shitting themselves.  Should be a nice long complicated trial, about banking, and as an added value, you and your family may become the target of the Russian mafia and neo-nazis.  

I'm interested in trial time estimates.  The 400-something documents for the government doesn't indicate a particularly long trial and Ellis tends to be known for running a tight ship and keeping trials speedy.

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Hugo Stiglitz

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Former Trump campaign official Rick Gates was paid tens of thousands of dollars in 2017 by a company headed by a leading Republican fundraiser and a firm headed by Donald Trump's inaugural committee chairman for help navigating the new administration, even as Gates was under criminal investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller, a new report says.

The New York Times article raises questions of why the two men, Elliott Broidy and Thomas Barrack, each of whom had close ties to the Republican Party and, in Barrack's case, to the president himself, were paying a lobbyist like Gates for guidance on how to deal with the new administration. Gates, who did not work in the administration, was a co-founder of pro-Trump group America First Policies.

The Times said Broidy, the California venture capitalist who had been a deputy finance chair for the Republican National Committee, paid Gates at least $125,000 before Gates was charged by Mueller last October, along with former Trump campaign chief Paul Manafort.

"For that money Mr. Gates advised Mr. Broidy on how to pursue both a contract for his business and appointments for his associates and provided insight into the new administration’s foreign policy plans," the Times said. Broidy was seeking foreign clients for a defense contractor he bought in 2015, the article said.

A firm owned by Trump's longtime close friend Barrack, Colony NorthStar, started paying Gates $20,000 per month shortly after the inauguration, but terminated that contract after Gates was indicted, according to the Times. Barrack had been the inauguration's chairman. Gates was deputy chairman of the inaugural committee

Gates, a former business associate of Manafort, pleaded guilty in February to financial fraud and lying to federal investigators. He has agreed to cooperate with Mueller against Manafort, who is due to go on trial next week in federal court in Virginia.

Representatives for Broidy and Barrack did not immediately respond to CNBC's request for comment.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/24/broidy-barrack-paid-gates-for-advice-on-trump-administration-report.html

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Tuco

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The Senate committee had used the the FISA as a basis for criticizing Steele and recommending that he was charged with lying to the FBI. This was centered around whether he had admitted to feeding the reporters the dossier. While I think it was a stretch, and an attempt to muddy the waters around the dossier, it didn’t go after the FBI or the FISA court.

Nunez then went all in and used their memo as a basis for claiming FBI corruption. Fuck him.

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Hugo Stiglitz

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1 minute ago, Tuco said:

The Senate committee had used the the FISA as a basis for criticizing Steele and recommending that he was charged with lying to the FBI. 

The Senate Judiciary Committee did this.  The one headed by Grassley.

I don’t recall the Senate Intel Committee, headed by Burr, going after Steele or the FISA stuff.

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Hugo Stiglitz

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6 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

know it's oft been stated that Crossfire Hurricane started as a result of a boozy disclosure by George Papadopolous, but 

Crossfire Hurricane was opened by the Papadopoulos intel.  That doesn’t mean the FBI and international IC wasn’t collecting related SIGINT on the Trump-Russia people prior to Papadopoulos development.

The earlier SIGINT was probably part of other ongoing investigations.  Manafort alone had multiple FISA warrants on him prior to 2016.

Schindler’s not wrong but he’s being annoying again.

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triplehorn

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I misquoted Schindler.  He stated the 'origins' of Crossfire Hurricane pre-dated Papadopoloous.  I think that is accurate insofar as SIGINT from the NSA and foreign partners clued them in as early as 2015.  Obviously the Dutch sharing intel with us re the successful hack into Cozy Bear dating back to that time is one published example.  But the SIGINT re Russia plotting for US election 2016 was building for a good while before Papadopolous entered the equation.

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Hugo Stiglitz

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54 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

I misquoted Schindler.  He stated the 'origins' of Crossfire Hurricane pre-dated Papadopoloous.  I think that is accurate insofar as SIGINT from the NSA and foreign partners clued them in as early as 2015.  Obviously the Dutch sharing intel with us re the successful hack into Cozy Bear dating back to that time is one published example.  But the SIGINT re Russia plotting for US election 2016 was building for a good while before Papadopolous entered the equation.

You and Schindler are right but pointing it out like that can be misleading and give people the impression the FBI isn’t being honest when they say Crossfire Hurricane opened with the Papadopoulos developement (it did).

It’s not the best time to question the integrity of the FBI with inconsequential semantics about the genesis of the investigation, even if unintentionally. /petty bitching

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BrickHorn

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45 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Crossfire Hurricane was opened by the Papadopoulos intel.  That doesn’t mean the FBI and international IC wasn’t collecting related SIGINT on the Trump-Russia people prior to Papadopoulos development.

The earlier SIGINT was probably part of other ongoing investigations.  Manafort alone had multiple FISA warrants on him prior to 2016.

Schindler’s not wrong but he’s being annoying again.

Y’all are all wrong.  The issue of Crossfire Hurricane was first raised by a toothless, bearded hag.

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Hugo Stiglitz

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Pro-Confederate Birther Introduced Maria Butina’s Handler to NRA Chief

180723-Ackerman-Woodruff-Rawnsley-NRA-he

 

The first American to introduce two of the major players at the heart of a shocking Russian spy scandal has such deep ties to Moscow that he has doubted Barack Obama’s American citizenship in the course of demonstrating his affinity for Vladimir Putin. 

“As long as U.S. is electing foreign-born presidents,” tweeted Tennessee attorney G. Kline Preston IV in 2013, “I propose Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.” 

Two years later, at a rally featuring soon-to-be-President Donald Trump, Preston tweeted: “Donald Trump today in Nashville. He is a friend of Russia.” He wrote the message in Russian.

In other words, at the very beginning of what appears to be an audacious geopolitical gambit to pivot the American right in Moscow’s direction is a birther who has explicitly stated a preference for Vladimir Putin to run the United States of America. He’s also something of a Confederate enthusiast, according to his Facebook activity.  

Preston’s offline activities mirror his social media habits. He’s occasionally works as a freelance elections observer for Russia, testifying about the fidelity and freedom of various Russian elections and bringing Moscow. And he’s brought  officials to his home state of Tennessee to witness an American presidential election up close. Preston is also tied to Marsha Blackburn, a conservative congresswoman running for Senate in Tennessee. 

It’s just a small indicator of Preston’s longstanding ties to Russia, and in particular to Alexander Torshin. Torshin, a former Russian parliamentarian now under Treasury Department sanctions, is a friend and confidante of Preston, who has described Torshin as a client. In 2011, according to multiple accounts, Preston introduced Torshin to David Keene, then the president of the NRA. (Torshin “was interested in the NRA so I hooked him up” Preston told the Tennessean earlier this year.) It’s the first known contact between the NRA and the Russians, and it wouldn’t be the last. 

Preston’s ties to Torshin are particularly significant now that a Torshin protege is accused of infiltrating the NRA to tilt the supremely influential lobby group in a pro-Russian direction – and with it, the Republican Party.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/pro-confederate-birther-introduced-maria-butinas-handler-to-nra-chief

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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- Butina's lawyer specifically said they've asked the govt for evidence to back up the allegation in a previous filing that Butina offered sex in exchange for a job. Defense has "no idea" what the govt is talking about and they don't believe it's true, her lawyer said

- Long and short of it is, judge set a deadline for two weeks from now for the govt to submit its proposed protective order to govern the exchange of evidence, and then Butina's lawyer will get a week to respond, and the judge will rule

- Butina's lawyer said they plan to ask the US district judge handling the case (who presided over today's hearing) to reconsider a magistrate judge's decision to keep Butina in custody pending trial. Also plan to move to dismiss the indictment or seek a bill of particulars

- One interesting issue that may come up: Butina testified before Senate Intel for hours. Prosecutor said they don't have the transcript. Defense says testimony could help her (they don't have the transcript either) and that Senate Intel said they'd release to govt at govt request

- Not clear if the govt will ask for it or if Senate Intel will give it to the defense. Whether the court can do anything raises complicated constitutional questions, prosecutor said today. Judge said the parties should look into it and let her know if she needs to step in

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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