The Robert Mueller Investigation

[TornACL 7722]

7 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

Not sure to which country clubs you refer, but I think you'd be surprised at the level of continued pro-Trumpism among CC types here in Dallas.

I don't have a CC membership, but my small sample size suggests that Trump support among the 1% typically falls somewhere between outright support and a sort of "hold your nose and hope for the best". 

 

[DDD Dad 14344]

I do, and am not anywhere near the 1%, and I can assure you that in my very recent experience Trump support remains surprisingly (to me) high.

[Hank Kingsley 20990]

Old people with money vote Republican.  Not very complicated. 

 

 

[4th&Five 41565]

Thread

[Brian Fantana 6689]

Texags is a fucking gem right now btw

[Ghost of LL 15539]

2 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

I do, and am not anywhere near the 1%, and I can assure you that in my very recent experience Trump support remains surprisingly (to me) high.

I'm just going by my club, which was probably 75% Republican when I joined in 2015.  It's now 50% vocal anti-Republican (I can't even call it Democratic), 45% nod and put your head down, and 5% Trumpy.

Even if you assume that the 45% is still Republican, that's a big change.

[DDD Dad 14344]

Well, you're in Austin, so that may be part of what you're seeing.  Up here, even in what I would consider to be one of the most progressive neighborhoods in town (though it's turning into Park Cities East), there remains strong support.

[GSU&UT 1798]

2 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I'm just going by my club, which was probably 75% Republican when I joined in 2015.  It's now 50% vocal anti-Republican (I can't even call it Democratic), 45% nod and put your head down, and 5% Trumpy.

Even if you assume that the 45% is still Republican, that's a big change.

Not doubting the change, but I'd seriously like to see how those 50% anti-Republicans vote in the next couple of elections. There is no doubt that a wave is coming, but old habits die hard. There's still the issue of how heavily gerrymandered many of the Red states are and what they're doing to suppress voting.

[kevwun 15809]

LL has said it many times before, if college educated whites are split 50/50 or even 60/40 then the gerrymandered districts are not gerrymandered anymore in favor of Republicans.

Edited April 10, 2018 by kevwun

[GSU&UT 1798]

Just now, kevwun said:

LL has said it many times before, if college educated whites are split 50/50 or even 60/40 then the gerrymandered districts are not gerrymandered anymore.

It will take a huge wave for that to be the case though. They may be changing, but there have been several articles on how much of a hump there is to overcome this,

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/03/31/just-how-big-of-a-hurdle-is-gerrymandering-to-democrats-taking-back-the-house-this-november/?utm_term=.7693aa9b9046

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2017/11/gerrymandering_saved_republicans_in_virginia.html

 

Quote

To attain a bare majority, Democrats would probably have to win the national popular vote by nearly 11 points. Neither Democrats nor Republicans have won by such an overwhelming margin in decades. Even a strong blue wave would crash against a wall of gerrymandered maps.

 

[yaqdum 182]

wave.  heh.  when this is over the word wave won't be seen anywhere.

[Anastasis 23479]

58 minutes ago, sidis said:

i think daniels is ancillary to the cohen raid.  cohen was intimately involved with trump's attempted Russia dealings from 2013 - 2016. these guys did a nice job of laying out the timeline.

So a couple thoughts on this.  If the Cohen raid was directly related to the collusion case, Mueller wouldn't/shouldn't punt it to NY. Or maybe this is all a ruse intended to provide the cover for a case built on parallel construction. Prior to the news breaking on the Cohen raid, I suggested Mueller advocated such tactics to launder intelligence collections for domestic law enforcement use. Use the porn star payoff to crack the door, and findings from the search warrants get distributed back up to Mueller...you just laundered the NSA captures of Cohen's' email and electronic devices. The other possibility, it's a great chess move intended to establish a pardon proof state case against Cohen in NY. So I won't rule out that this all ties back into Russia, but it would be contrary to the proper handling of the investigation, and conflicting with what the off the record sources are putting out into the media. 

[triplehorn 2664]

32 minutes ago, Nolacycling said:

Oh really? What did you shoot yesterday? Overall these country clubbers are making more money through the stock market and those damn EPA rules are going away. These are the same educated people that elected Trump. And they kept their mouth closed the entire campaign because there was nothing to defend and then shocked the world in the voting booth. Even if if is clearly shown that he colluded with Putin, it's onto Pence and thank god it wasn't Hillary, because she makes our head hurt.

Oh man, Pence was picked by someone who directed Manafort to make it happen w Trump.  Pence was picked VP because it was pre-determined by someone that he would be a willing cog, imo. 

As head of Trump's Transition Team, Pence has been playing the lying game all along, most obviously re Mike Flynn but most assuredly in multiple other ways.  Pence becoming the POTUS would be as much of a death trap for him as it is for Trump.

[sidis 9832]

@anastasis, he punts it because a raid ordered by the us attorney and carried out by the fbi is likely to have a more desirable effect than a subpoena issued by the special counsel...particularly when the special counsel recognizes the level of scumbaggery he is dealing with and the lengths they will go to.  also remember, Rosenstein has to approve of this first, otherwise the sdny us attorney is just...

[yaqdum 182]

7 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Pence becoming the POTUS would be as much of a death trap for him as it is for Trump.

indeed.  pence would become the next ant under the magnifying glass until he, too, pops.  then on to the next.  this is going to take a while.

[triplehorn 2664]

6 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

So a couple thoughts on this.  If the Cohen raid was directly related to the collusion case, Mueller wouldn't/shouldn't punt it to NY. Or maybe this is all a ruse intended to provide the cover for a case built on parallel construction. Prior to the news breaking on the Cohen raid, I suggested Mueller advocated such tactics to launder intelligence collections for domestic law enforcement use. Use the porn star payoff to crack the door, and findings from the search warrants get distributed back up to Mueller...you just laundered the NSA captures of Cohen's' email and electronic devices. The other possibility, it's a great chess move intended to establish a pardon proof state case against Cohen in NY. So I won't rule out that this all ties back into Russia, but it would be contrary to the proper handling of the investigation, and conflicting with what the off the record sources are putting out into the media. 

The immediate optics of the US Atty for SDNY signing off on the raid is that it makes it about about a lot more than Mueller.  It renders Trump's assault on the DoJ as this being "an attack on our country" even more unhinged.  He's just aiming at holograms in a house of mirrors now.

The cooperation between the OSC and NYAG Schneiderman (State jurisdiction) has been public since last summer.  Now the US Atty for SDNY makes it a 3 pronged effort.  Information will continue to be shared within our system of justice, and targets for Trump and his legal legionnaires will remain multiple and diffuse.  Good luck with that.

[yaqdum 182]

this in the nyt today from popehat regarding the raid.

[sidis 9832]

and by the way, how would you like to be Geoffrey Berman right now...jesus Christ, what a way to start month three of your job.

[RomaVicta 29941]

11 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Where I have pushed back is on this concept that there was some organized effort within the Trump campaign to undermine the american political system via collusion with russia. I dont think that the Trump election team was capable of organizing within themselves, much less organizing with russia. I think it was amateur hour all around. 

 

I think this is solid perspective. My reading in Atlantic Magazine's What Putin Wants and their article on Manafort supports that different actors are acting for different reasons. My conclusions based on my limited reading:

Putin wants to stir up trouble for the US wherever he can. His attack on our election could be (likely is) related to the US condemnation of Russian elections and his legitimacy. His hold on Trump was a lucky card that was thrown into his hand rather than a master plan.

The Trump actors seem motivated by money or crushing debt. They sold out the system for personal gain rather than being part of a master plan to damage faith in our political processes.

Trump, on his own, has fascist instincts to attack the press, vilify the defenseless and spew lies about the return to greatness of Italy Germany the US. Putin gets dealt a royal flush.

All of these activities are vile and unlawful. However, I don't think a master plan was in place to bring us to this point in time where Putin's best wet dream of American political disarray and distrust has taken over the waking world. It's just a perfect storm.

Still, all these fuckers need to go to jail.

[Pig Bellmont 8719]

SDNY likely used as “taint team” to review for privilege prior to turning docs to prosecutors, per twitterverse 

[Dutchrudder 11144]

So if the Dems somehow take back the House in November, when all the shit hits the fan, we could end up with President Pelosi, right?

[Pig Bellmont 8719]

2 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

So if the Dems somehow take back the House in November, when all the shit hits the fan, we could end up with President Pelosi, right?

The President’s lawyer doesn’t get raided unless Mueller is ready to move. The amount of evidence required for the warrant is much stronger than a probable cause showing - so Cohen was fucked BEFORE the raid. Point being, it won’t be November when shit hits the fan. 

[sidis 9832]

4 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

So if the Dems somehow take back the House in November, when all the shit hits the fan, we could end up with President Pelosi, right?

unless the useful idiot got snared up in this unwittingly, we will get president "boys and girls have to remain in different rooms and the gays will receive shock therapy"

[Aqua Buddha 14599]

49 minutes ago, kevwun said:

LL has said it many times before, if college educated whites are split 50/50 or even 60/40 then the gerrymandered districts are not gerrymandered anymore in favor of Republicans.

This is what I was going to say but you beat me to it.  The business model of the GOP is to get 75% of the upscale whites.  Move that down to even 60% and the whole thing falls apart.  Look at the elections we've seen since 2016.  In the ones where you've had sizable blocks of upscale white voters, you've seen a huge shift.  (Virginia, for example.)  Those gerrymandered districts become millstones around their neck if the suburban whites start to fall off.

[Ghost of LL 15539]

4 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

So if the Dems somehow take back the House in November, when all the shit hits the fan, we could end up with President Pelosi, right?

Not if you share my view that the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 is unconstitutional.

If that's the case, you'd have President Mnuchin.

[bolverk 29694]

1 hour ago, Bat Guano said:

l'etat c'est moi.

Whatever you say, Louis. Go eat some cake with Marie.

[sidis 9832]

1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

Not if you share my view that the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 is unconstitutional.

If that's the case, you'd have President Mnuchin.

and he would executive produce about a hundred really shitty movies about it.

[triplehorn 2664]

2 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

Putin wants to stir up trouble for the US wherever he can. His attack on our election could be (likely is) related to the US condemnation of Russian elections and his legitimacy. His hold on Trump was a lucky card that was thrown into his hand rather than a master plan.

Putin runs a mafia state.  I believe this is much more a desperate fight for his long term survival and preservation of their brand of international corruption than you credit.

US is the 900 pound gorilla.  The long game has been culling those Americans willing to play a high risk/high reward game of corruption with Putin to further their expansion and shifting the world to mob rules.

[Anastasis 23479]

17 minutes ago, sidis said:

@anastasis, he punts it because a raid ordered by the us attorney and carried out by the fbi is likely to have a more desirable effect than a subpoena issued by the special counsel...particularly when the special counsel recognizes the level of scumbaggery he is dealing with and the lengths they will go to.  also remember, Rosenstein has to approve of this first, otherwise the sdny us attorney is just...

If Mueller has probable cause, he can order a raid and deploy the FBI to execute it.  See also, Manafort Paul J. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/18/us/politics/mueller-russia-investigation.html

 

I don't think that makes sense as the rationale for kicking it down to NY. 

[kevwun 15809]

6 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

This is what I was going to say but you beat me to it.  The business model of the GOP is to get 75% of the upscale whites.  Move that down to even 60% and the whole thing falls apart.  Look at the elections we've seen since 2016.  In the ones where you've had sizable blocks of upscale white voters, you've seen a huge shift.  (Virginia, for example.)  Those gerrymandered districts become millstones around their neck if the suburban whites start to fall off.

Right, there are a lot of districts where urban areas were carved in to slivers and attached to a big chunk of the suburbs to dilute Democratic voters.  If the suburbs aren't reliably Republican, that doesn't work and you end up with a Dem rep instead of a Republican one.

[sidis 9832]

5 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

If Mueller has probable cause, he can order a raid and deploy the FBI to execute it.  See also, Manafort Paul J. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/18/us/politics/mueller-russia-investigation.html

 

I don't think that makes sense as the rationale for kicking it down to NY. 

fair enough.  maybe it was a favorable jurisdictional judge or something.  or likely it was what you partially implied...an own goal by cohen and trump's idiotic press statements on daniels that Mueller just wants to keep separate from his investigation but could be used as a pretext to get a look up Cohen's skirt for his own purposes.  either way, i really don't think that Mueller could care less about daniels other than a useful machination tool.

[Brian Fantana 6689]

12 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

If Mueller has probable cause, he can order a raid and deploy the FBI to execute it.  See also, Manafort Paul J. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/18/us/politics/mueller-russia-investigation.html

 

I don't think that makes sense as the rationale for kicking it down to NY. 

Kicking it down to NY takes presidential pardons off the table.

[Kilgorehorn 308]

He didn't kick it down to NY. SDNY is a federal court.

[Brian Fantana 6689]

Oh yeah, my mistake.

[TwiceHorn 31510]

1 minute ago, Brian Fantana said:

Kicking it down to NY takes presidential pardons off the table.

We're still talking federal here, not state.  More I look at it, the more it seems GoLL's "taint team" theory is a strong one.  I am curious, though, that payments to hoors and campaign finance violations don't really strike me as the kind of crimes that would support such extraordinary measures.

[jimmyjazz 45992]

I'll admit I'm now engaging in the kind of speculation I mock the rightists for, but I can't for the life of me imagine that Mueller doesn't know there is serious dirt on Trump in those files.  I just don't think Stormy Daniels is the end game here.

[kevwun 15809]

2 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

We're still talking federal here, not state.  More I look at it, the more it seems GoLL's "taint team" theory is a strong one.  I am curious, though, that payments to hoors and campaign finance violations don't really strike me as the kind of crimes that would support such extraordinary measures.

International money laundering would though and I am 99% sure Trump and Cohen were involved in that.

[shnsajax 3591]

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'll admit I'm now engaging in the kind of speculation I mock the rightists for, but I can't for the life of me imagine that Mueller doesn't know there is serious dirt on Trump in those files.  I just don't think Stormy Daniels is the end game here.

Agreed, she is on the list. But a little ways down in terms of importance.

[Dbeasy 15073]

With the events yesterday, I’m struggling to figure out the real state of the investigation. I don’t share the viewpoint that today Trump is cooked. It seems like he’s done a great job of avoiding getting his hands dirty, with people all around him doing the things that can draw charges.

If so, then Mueller is playing his last potential card to get Trump - hope that Manafort, Flynn, Cohen, etc. all tell the same story that brings down Trump. Without multiple corroborated testimonies, there won’t be clear enough evidence of guilt. Trump will skate.

[JBJ 3660]

22 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

If Mueller has probable cause, he can order a raid and deploy the FBI to execute it.  See also, Manafort Paul J. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/18/us/politics/mueller-russia-investigation.html

I don't think that makes sense as the rationale for kicking it down to NY. 

Rodenstein would have to approve before Mueller requests the warrant.  I think that is the rationale.  Or the DC judge wouldn't grant a warrant.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

3 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

With the events yesterday, I’m struggling to figure out the real state of the investigation. I don’t share the viewpoint that today Trump is cooked. It seems like he’s done a great job of avoiding getting his hands dirty, with people all around him doing the things that can draw charges.

If so, then Mueller is playing his last potential card to get Trump - hope that Manafort, Flynn, Cohen, etc. all tell the same story that brings down Trump. Without multiple corroborated testimonies, there won’t be clear enough evidence of guilt. Trump will skate.

If Cohen flips, Trump is fucked. 

Cohen knows where all the bodies are buried. 

Trump will likely get a federal pardon anyway but those State crimes...

Edited April 10, 2018 by Hugo Stiglitz

[Vince_McCoy_Williams 98]

Any day now Trump will be impeached, I feel it coming, they have got him this time, it is always one day away!

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

7 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

If Cohen flips, Trump is fucked. 

Cohen knows where all the bodies are buried. 

Trump will likely get a federal pardon anyway but those State crimes...

No one went after Nixon once Ford said he was off limits.  I’d expect the same here. 

[chainsaw 9872]

Has anyone made a Hitler Downfall video about discovering that judges can't be fired?

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

2 minutes ago, Vince_McCoy_Williams said:

Any day now Trump will be impeached, I feel it coming, they have got him this time, it is always one day away!

  Impeachment will never be likely, but Yesterday was the worst day of president Trump‘s time in office. Don’t kid yourself. 

[TornACL 7722]

4 minutes ago, Vince_McCoy_Williams said:

Any day now Trump will be impeached, I feel it coming, they have got him this time, it is always one day away!

Remember when there were a lot more of you in these threads? Ever stop to wonder why your population is dwindling?

[longhorndude 146]

To be fair swam is probably having WiFi issues again....

[Vince_McCoy_Williams 98]

2 minutes ago, TornACL said:

Remember when there were a lot more of you in these threads? Ever stop to wonder why your population is dwindling?

This has always been a circle jerk thread where all the liberals post their daily fantasy that Trump will be impeached. Who wants to deal with that? Lol. I mean honestly, this is like the birther shit with Obama, just, admittedly, a little more substance to it and, to be fair, a slightly higher chance of something actually happening. 

[TornACL 7722]

2 minutes ago, Vince_McCoy_Williams said:

This has always been a circle jerk thread where all the liberals post their daily fantasy that Trump will be impeached. Who wants to deal with that? Lol. I mean honestly, this is like the birther shit with Obama, just, admittedly, a little more substance to it and, to be fair, a slightly higher chance of something actually happening. 

Wait a minute, weren't you one of the captains of the Obama birther train on the site that shall not be mentioned?

[Vince_McCoy_Williams 98]

5 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

  Impeachment will never be likely, but Yesterday was the worst day of president Trump‘s time in office. Don’t kid yourself. 

Sure, just like every other day was the worst, at a point it just gets ignored. I know that angry liberals are super in tune with the developments in regards to Russia and Mueller, and I am not shitting on you all, if Trump is actually guilty of collusion, then I am for his removal as well; but at this point, you all have screamed about the smoking gun so so so many times, that a majority of moderate liberals and republicans have completely tuned out this stuff. Unless something happens, a majority isnt paying that close of attention.