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The Robert Mueller Investigation

Hugo Stiglitz

By Hugo Stiglitz
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Goredho
Goredho

Just to make sure I have the alternative facts straight...  Our government -- but I'm guessing only the deep state part of it --- is now guilty of torturing a poor, naive Russian exchange student who

Incredulity
Incredulity

liberals suddenly being terrified of Russia and manic for election integrity is just pure comedy gold.

Chooky
Chooky

I don't believe for a moment that any of this is entertaining to you.  I think it gives you a bit of anxiety knowing that your best weapon against a group who you despise is a bumbling fraud as a busi

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Mojo Hand

Mojo Hand 4580

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5 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Oh shit, didn't notice text didn't post.  Trump>Pardon>NewCharges>Pardon>MoreNewCharges>Pardon.  However, it would seem Trump could issue a pardon covering all indicted offenses, etc. and cover it all.  At the usual risk to himself.

Just spitballing, but perhaps this is intended to get around the NY double jeopardy law in the event of a pardon?   As I understand it, there's a good argument that any NY state crimes overlapping with a finally adjudicated, but subsequently pardoned, federal offense, cannot be brought in NY per state statute.  If a blanket pardon wipes out everything at the federal level, but some charges are revived per this agreement, maybe that changes things for state law double jeopardy purposes.   Sure, the pardon would serve as a dispositive defense at the federal level if those new federal charges were actually brought, but Mueller wouldn't need to actually bring them again in federal court, and Manafort wouldn't have the chance to invoke the pardon in defending against them. Their renewed existence as live federal causes of action alone arguably removes the state double jeopardy issue. 

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31470

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7 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

Just spitballing, but perhaps this is intended to get around the NY double jeopardy law in the event of a pardon?   As I understand it, there's a good argument that any NY state crimes overlapping with a finally adjudicated, but subsequently pardoned, federal offense, cannot be brought in NY per state statute.  If a blanket pardon wipes out everything at the federal level, but some charges are revived per this agreement, maybe that changes things for state law double jeopardy purposes.   Sure, the pardon would serve as a dispositive defense at the federal level if those new federal charges were actually brought, but Mueller wouldn't need to actually bring them again in federal court, and Manafort wouldn't have the chance to invoke the pardon in defending against them. Their renewed existence as live federal causes of action alone arguably removes the state double jeopardy issue. 

I don't know.  I never quite sorted that NY law to my satisfaction.  I didnt' realize that a number of states have prohibitions against second prosecutions at the state level, either.  A gap in that vaunted "national" UT legal education.  Learned the common law rule and Texas, but not those oddities.

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Chad Fuck

Chad Fuck 17681

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I don't know.  I never quite sorted that NY law to my satisfaction.  I didnt' realize that a number of states have prohibitions against second prosecutions at the state level, either.  A gap in that vaunted "national" UT legal education.  Learned the common law rule and Texas, but not those oddities.

They expect they’ve given you the tools to sort it out for yourself...if you need to.
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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31470

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26 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:


They expect they’ve given you the tools to sort it out for yourself...if you need to.

I'm just talking shit.  I thought Dix was an excellent criminal law prof.  I just remember a sort of collective "hmmm" when introduced to the dual sovereignty double jeopardy issue and am a bit surprised that state statutes abrogating it didn't come up at least in passing.  I guess those are pretty unusual.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

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7 minutes ago, shnsajax said:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/michael-cohen-spoke-mueller-team-hours-asked-russia/story?id=57959664&cid=clicksource_4380645_1_hero_headlines_bsq_hed

 

Speculation:

This is likely coming from Cohen’s lawyers.  

Why would they tell the press this information? 

-send a signal to other people involved 

-improve Cohen’s public image 

 

Cohen was likely a major target of Mueller and probably had a good idea he was going to get nailed.  He wants to avoid anymore prison time and Lanny Davis was basically begging for some kind of cooperation deal with Mueller weeks ago.  It looks like that ball is rolling.

An unrelated observation:  ALL the named Trump campaign people in the Dossier have gone down and fully cooperated with Mueller EXCEPT Carter Page.

 

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31470

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14 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I’m still trying to figure out why Papadopoulos continues to go fucking nuts with bullshit on Twitter. 

When is he going to prison? 

If you aren't in pretrial detention, or ordered into custody immediately (unusual), you are given a date by which to report to prison.  Should be in the sentencing order.

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

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7 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Cohen was likely a major target of Mueller and probably had a good idea he was going to get nailed.  He wants to avoid anymore prison time and Lanny Davis was basically begging for some kind of cooperation deal with Mueller weeks ago.  It looks like that ball is rolling.

An unrelated observation:  ALL the named Trump campaign people in the Dossier have gone down and fully cooperated with Mueller EXCEPT Carter Page.

Cohen will not make a very credible witness.  However, good luck cross examining Cohen-linked tangible receipts.  It's what destroyed Manafort - an airtight monetary paper trail.

 

And remember, do not sleep on this:

If Cohen doesn't plan on spending decades in prison, he's got to spill all of it.

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DDD Dad

DDD Dad 14339

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Cohen will not make a very credible witness.  However, good luck cross examining Cohen-linked tangible receipts.  It's what destroyed Manafort - an airtight monetary paper trail.
 
And remember, do not sleep on this:
If Cohen doesn't plan on spending decades in prison, he's got to spill all of it.

There must be a pee tape.
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Post Oak

Post Oak 20213

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11 hours ago, triplehorn said:

Sounds official - Former Trump personal atty and RNC bagman deputy national finance chair now a cooperating witness with Feds (and NY State). 

Too little too late to benefit from cooperation ?  

This is the part that I always thought wasn't getting enough attention.  It wouldn't surprise me to see alot of people from Ronna on down to be in trouble.

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Hugo Stiglitz

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24 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

This is the part that I always thought wasn't getting enough attention.  It wouldn't surprise me to see alot of people from Ronna on down to be in trouble.

It doesn’t get the attention because it’s so partisan.  The media putting the RNC corruption on blast comes off a “muh liberal bias media”. 

Keeping the focus on Russia appeals to a more unifying problem that shouldn’t be partisan.

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TwiceHorn

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On 9/19/2018 at 6:54 PM, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

Now this is going to be interesting.  About the same offense as VDZ and Georgie Porgie.  But, Flynn has a much more distinguished and long record than either of them.  Usually that counts in favor of the defendant.  In a lot of cases, though, I think it should count AGAINST them.  Maybe not perjury/obstruction so much as some of the other "white collar" crimes.

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

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On June 3, 2016, Donald Trump Jr. received one of the most striking emails of the presidential campaign, offering dirt on Hillary Clinton as part of the Russian government’s “support for Mr. Trump.”

Trump Jr. responded 17 minutes later: “if it’s what you say I love it.”

That email led to a meeting at Trump Tower that has become a central focus of the investigation into possible collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign.

But the very day that email was sent, another exchange was taking place behind the scenes.

Documents reviewed by BuzzFeed News show that $3.3 million began moving on June 3 between two of the men who orchestrated the meeting: Aras Agalarov, a billionaire real estate developer close to both Vladimir Putin and President Donald Trump, and Irakly “Ike” Kaveladze, a longtime Agalarov employee once investigated for money laundering.

That money is on top of the more than $20 million that was flagged as suspicious, BuzzFeed News revealed earlier this month, after the money ricocheted among the planners and participants of the Trump Tower meeting. Special counsel Robert Mueller’s team, which has been investigating whether any individuals colluded with Russia to influence the 2016 presidential election, is examining the suspicious transactions, four federal law enforcement officials said. A spokesperson for Mueller’s office declined to comment.

Although the documents do not directly link the $3.3 million to the meeting, they show that officials at three separate banks raised red flags about the funds. Many of the transfers seemed to have no legitimate purpose, bankers noted. 

 

Enter the cooperation of Manafort and Cohen who can provide accurate context to the detailed money flow under scrutiny between Trump campaign and Russia.  Stolen election materials in exchange for sanctions lifting, for starters.

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Longhorn94

Longhorn94 2448

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They have to because its how Trump became leveraged.

..The money seemed legitimate at first. There were no strings attached. It was probably better than sex. And then they started asking for favors. And they wouldnt take no for an answer..

 

We got here one business deal at a time until Trump was in too deep and could not say no. . 

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triplehorn

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Important to note regarding the recent move by Trump to declassify the Carter Page FISA warrant:

 

thread reference  from former FBI Special Agent Asha Rangappa:

3. The Page FISA covered the time period beginning October 2016. This is critical because that was when the momentum of the campaign shifted, as a result of the Wikileaks dumps and Comey's letter to Congress. Russia suddenly saw that Trump could actually win.

4. We know that this is also the time period when there was a flurry of other activity with Russia: Attempts by Kushner to set up a "back channel" with Kislyak, Flynn telling Russia not to respond to Obama's sanctions, the "peace plan" brought to the WH by Cohen.

5. We don't know how much of this that the Page FISA in particular picked up, but if Page was in continued contact either with Russia and/or the Trump transition team, then it would shed light on what Russia hoped to gain from this administration, the role of particular players.

6. There is *something* about what this particular FISA obtained -- or the WH is afraid was potentially obtained -- that has it (and people like Nunes, who was on the transition team) freaked out. Only thing that explains why they care only about this piece of the investigation.

 

Louise was on this a long time ago:

Is Devin Nunes directly on an FBI intercept with Carter Page, receiving instructions for the Trump Transition team directly from Moscow? I believe he must be. Here’s the evidence.

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Hugo Stiglitz

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49 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Now this is going to be interesting.  About the same offense as VDZ and Georgie Porgie.  But, Flynn has a much more distinguished and long record than either of them.  Usually that counts in favor of the defendant.  In a lot of cases, though, I think it should count AGAINST them.  Maybe not perjury/obstruction so much as some of the other "white collar" crimes.

The thing I will be looking for with the Flynn sentencing is the level of cooperation he provided the Mueller team and additional information provided in the documents.

Mueller has been reporting to the American people but he’s been doing it through court documents instead of regular reports.

The documents that come with Flynn’s sentencing would be a good opportunity to tell more of the overall story. 

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

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About that FISA declassification Trump ordered a few days ago  - doh !

Per WaPo:

By Devlin Barrett 
September 21 at 11:35 AM 

President Trump on Friday walked back his order earlier this week to declassify information in the ongoing probe into Russian interference in the 2016 election, saying Justice Department officials and others had persuaded him not to do so for the time being. 

The retreat from his declassification decree issued just four days ago underscores the ongoing tensions between the White House and the Justice Department over the probe by special counsel Robert S. Mueller III, who is examining whether any Trump associates may have conspired with the Kremlin to interfere in the election. 

In a pair of Friday morning tweets, Trump said: “I met with the DOJ concerning the declassification of various UNREDACTED documents. They agreed to release them but stated that so doing may have a perceived negative impact on the Russia probe. Also, key Allies’ called to ask not to release. Therefore, the Inspector General has been asked to review these documents on an expedited basis. I believe he will move quickly on this (and hopefully other things which he is looking at). In the end I can always declassify if it proves necessary. Speed is very important to me - and everyone!” 

His reversal was preceded by a series of conversations between White House lawyer Emmet Flood and senior law enforcement and intelligence officials — chief among them deputy attorney general Rod J. Rosenstein, according to people familiar with the discussions, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

[...]

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

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18 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

About that FISA declassification Trump ordered a few days ago  - doh !

Per WaPo:

By Devlin Barrett 
September 21 at 11:35 AM 

President Trump on Friday walked back his order earlier this week to declassify information in the ongoing probe into Russian interference in the 2016 election, saying Justice Department officials and others had persuaded him not to do so for the time being. 

The retreat from his declassification decree issued just four days ago underscores the ongoing tensions between the White House and the Justice Department over the probe by special counsel Robert S. Mueller III, who is examining whether any Trump associates may have conspired with the Kremlin to interfere in the election. 

In a pair of Friday morning tweets, Trump said: “I met with the DOJ concerning the declassification of various UNREDACTED documents. They agreed to release them but stated that so doing may have a perceived negative impact on the Russia probe. Also, key Allies’ called to ask not to release. Therefore, the Inspector General has been asked to review these documents on an expedited basis. I believe he will move quickly on this (and hopefully other things which he is looking at). In the end I can always declassify if it proves necessary. Speed is very important to me - and everyone!” 

His reversal was preceded by a series of conversations between White House lawyer Emmet Flood and senior law enforcement and intelligence officials — chief among them deputy attorney general Rod J. Rosenstein, according to people familiar with the discussions, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

[...]

So in other words, more people not following Trump’s orders.

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31470

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47 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The thing I will be looking for with the Flynn sentencing is the level of cooperation he provided the Mueller team and additional information provided in the documents.

Mueller has been reporting to the American people but he’s been doing it through court documents instead of regular reports.

The documents that come with Flynn’s sentencing would be a good opportunity to tell more of the overall story. 

Thing is, though, they don't really need to rely on substantial cooperation, apparently, to justify the 0-6 month sentences they gave VDZ and GP.  It came up in GP because they pooped on his cooperation and he still got a slap on the hand, albeit a felony slap.  Again, I'm not sure this is going to be particularly revelatory.  In both of these cases, they seemed to be willing to take a plea on a low-level offense in advance of valuable cooperation.

Contrast with Manafort's plea where they are clearly working down from 10 years based on the quality and quantity of cooperation.  In that case, when it (sentencing) finally goes down, the government is going to have to detail some of the cooperation, but they are most likely to do it under seal.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

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8 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Thing is, though, they don't really need to rely on substantial cooperation, apparently, to justify the 0-6 month sentences they gave VDZ and GP.  It came up in GP because they pooped on his cooperation and he still got a slap on the hand, albeit a felony slap.  Again, I'm not sure this is going to be particularly revelatory.  In both of these cases, they seemed to be willing to take a plea on a low-level offense in advance of valuable cooperation.

Contrast with Manafort's plea where they are clearly working down from 10 years based on the quality and quantity of cooperation.  In that case, when it (sentencing) finally goes down, the government is going to have to detail some of the cooperation, but they are most likely to do it under seal.

Of course we could get jack shit from the Flynn documents but the way these filings have gone I wouldn’t be surprised.

Look at all the information in the other documents, especially with the Russians and Manafort’s 76 pages of criminal information.  That is a remarkable amount of detail and content that wasn’t required to be reported.

I’m just saying it’s possible.

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