The Robert Mueller Investigation

[DigglerontheHoof 21516]

Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

You are discounting another possibility although slim.  Trump could make a deal to get out of all state and federal charges if he agrees to resign.  

It would be his best exit strategy if something like that were on the table.   

Should a deal like that even be offered? 

Only if it comes with a full allocution on every media outlet in the nation...and 5 times on Fox.  

[suddenly shaggy 929]

45 minutes ago, Grandioso said:

This is exactly why Putin has to stay in power forever. Gary Kasparov referred to it as the "golden cage," e.g., the privileged, aristocratic lifestyle that a despot can never leave lest he be jailed by his successor or offed by his enemies.

Golden cage is a good term for it. I've been referring to it as Caesar syndrome. 

People make a big deal over Caesar choosing to cross the Rubicon with his army, but he would have been tried and convicted in Rome if he returned without the army. With a little study of his character, there isn't much of a choice. When put in that situation, Julius Caesar would always choose to save himself while getting revenge on his enemies. 

Trump is far more repugnant, selfish and narcissistic than Caesar. Trump will make the same choice if he is allowed to. 

Edited March 13, 2019 by suddenly shaggy

[Biff Tannen 46061]

Prosecutor on CNN said indictment right after sentencing was "in poor taste".  Um, I'm sorry, I thought taste was no longer a consideration in this country?

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

Why on earth would Mueller or other Federal/state attorneys offer such a deal? 

National security comes to mind, also the whole “you can’t indict a sitting president” thing.  It’s no justice but if you think the story of Donald Trump has a “just” ending, you haven’t been paying attention.   Politicians resigning to avoid criminal charges isn’t uncommon, we just don’t hear about it often. 

[wildcat09 29559]

55 minutes ago, Chooky said:

An even stronger argument can be made that Cyrus Vance is indeed a preening, disingenuous cunt who is notoriously more concerned with self advancement and political optics than the rule of law.  Recently he has been heavily criticized for aggressively hammering to stuff poor people into prison while being excessively lenient on wealthy, white collar criminals.  So, of course, that means this particular cunt has been eagerly awaiting the next high profile, white collar crime he can relentlessly make into a spectacle to balance the scales of his flawed personality.    

This. Cy Vance is a piece of shit who happens to have accepted a bribe from Trump to overlook some of Junior and Ivanka's crimes. He's far from the only person about whom this can be said, but if not for him doing so it's very likely Trump is never president.

Now that Trump is persona non grata in NYC and the public knows about Vance taking that bribe, he's trying to save his job by making up for it on the back end. He gets no credit for finally doing his job here.

[shnsajax 3605]

2 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

Yeah, Manafort needs to die in prison but announcing this right now is a bit too much

 

When you pair it with the Cohen/Trump Lawyers back channel emails that were released today I am fine with it. 

[suddenly shaggy 929]

This is awesome. "Bob Mueller is more Republican than you've been on your best day." Gaetz can't even respond, because it's true. 

 

[Biff Tannen 46061]

2 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

 

Yeah, Manafort needs to die in prison but announcing this right now is a bit too much

 

Why?  I'm seriously at a loss here.  This motherfucker most likely was one of the key parts in the biggest scandal in political history and people are sad that he got indicted again after he got sentenced to 1/5 of the time he was up for?  What am I missing?

[kevwun 16269]

Yeah,  I don't care about the optics.  Manafort is scum.  Niceties are not necessary when dealing with him.

[Chooky 13337]

Cyrus Vance also chose not to pursue charges against Harvey Weinstein then accepted a $10,000 campaign donation from Harvey Weinstein's lawyer.  He's a garbage person.  He did the same thing after meeting with Jared and Ivanka's lawyer. 

His only guidance is public perception and he's too stupid to properly gauge the winds of public perception.  He's constantly on the wrong side of shit because he's not a real person, rather he's just a public profile.  If he just did his fucking job he wouldn't set the same land mines for himself with which he repeatedly blows off his own legs.  The timing of this Manafort indictment is hilariously dubious because he's a hilariously dubious person.  It's pretty simple and there isn't much gray area.  He's a shitty person with singular motivations.   

Just because a grease stain goes after someone you don't like doesn't mean he's not a grease stain. Pointing out that Cyrus Vance is an obvious piece of shit is not parallel to being sympathetic to Manafort.     

[kevwun 16269]

I have no doubt he's an attention whore.  As long as he didn't make up the charges, I also don't care about that right now.  The voters can take care of him down the road or one of his own scandals will get him.  Right now he's the Russian Army making the Nazis fight on 2 fronts.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

So this Cyrus Vance guy isn’t cool.  

Glad we all know that now. 

Fuck Paul Manafort 

[David Dennison 19441]

1 hour ago, hayden_horn said:

look, i think sentencing guidelines are overly harsh. but "don't get caught until you are old and infirm" doesn't really work for me. if a 35 year old man faced the same charges as manafort, does he get 7.5 years total? why not?

if it's 7.5 at 70, then it should be 7.5 at 35. but that's not the case. so they are going easy on the old white man because he's old and in poor health. boo fucking hoo.

I disagree and so, apparently, does the judge.

I have no problem with his sentence. 

[Thermos H. Christ 478]

Personally I think it's insane that we act like 7.5 years isn't a long-ass time to spend in prison. I don't want to see the system treat white collar criminals like it treats poor criminals, I want it to treat poor criminals like it treats white collar criminals. 

[Chooky 13337]

4 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

So this Cyrus Vance guy isn’t cool.  

Glad we all know that now. 

Fuck Paul Manafort 

Interesting to notice you coming to a swift conclusion after impulsively acting on your first instinct to defend someone you knew nothing about.  

[hayden_horn 11401]

5 minutes ago, Thermos H. Christ said:

Personally I think it's insane that we act like 7.5 years isn't a long-ass time to spend in prison. I don't want to see the system treat white collar criminals like it treats poor criminals, I want it to treat poor criminals like it treats white collar criminals. 

overall, i agree with this as well.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Would 7.5 years be a long time for a career international terrorist/mercenary? 

Because Manafort is the white collar version of that.   He might not get his hands personally bloody, but he’s left a trail of dead bodies in his wake.  Just ask Ukraine. 

[Chooky 13337]

5 minutes ago, Thermos H. Christ said:

Personally I think it's insane that we act like 7.5 years isn't a long-ass time to spend in prison. I don't want to see the system treat white collar criminals like it treats poor criminals, I want it to treat poor criminals like it treats white collar criminals. 

This.  I'm also never stoked to see a prosecutor go out of their way to appeal to the emotional angst of their peers.  

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

4 minutes ago, Chooky said:

Interesting to notice you coming to a swift conclusion after impulsively acting on your first instinct to defend someone you knew nothing about.  

I wasn’t defending him although it’s telling you see it that way. 

[Thermos H. Christ 478]

Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Would 7.5 years be a long time for a career international terrorist/mercenary? 

Because Manafort is the white collar version of that.   He might not get his hands personally bloody, but he’s left a trail of dead bodies in his wake.  Just ask Ukraine. 

He's a garbage human being and an architect of human misery, but he didn't go down for that. He went down for not paying taxes and lying to get bank loans. 

[wildcat09 29559]

35 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Why?  I'm seriously at a loss here.  This motherfucker most likely was one of the key parts in the biggest scandal in political history and people are sad that he got indicted again after he got sentenced to 1/5 of the time he was up for?  What am I missing?

Also, his involvement in said scandal is actually one of the least awful things he's done in the past 30 years. Manafort deserves no compassion from anyone.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

1 minute ago, Thermos H. Christ said:

He's a garbage human being and an architect of human misery, but he didn't go down for that. He went down for not paying taxes and lying to get bank loans. 

This is true.

[406W30th 1111]

31 minutes ago, Thermos H. Christ said:

He's a garbage human being and an architect of human misery, but he didn't go down for that. He went down for not paying taxes and lying to get bank loans. 

This is a good point and good perspective. Still hoping he also gets hooked for the whole "architect of human misery" part.

 

[FondrenRoad 4378]

34 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Also, his involvement in said scandal is actually one of the least awful things he's done in the past 30 years. Manafort deserves no compassion from anyone.

No way!  He has led an otherwise blameless life.  Other than the things he has been convicted for, he is as pure as the driven snow.  He is so blameless and pure that he is practically a cross between Mother Theresa and a newborn baby.  How dare you.

[David Dennison 19441]

51 minutes ago, Thermos H. Christ said:

Personally I think it's insane that we act like 7.5 years isn't a long-ass time to spend in prison. I don't want to see the system treat white collar criminals like it treats poor criminals, I want it to treat poor criminals like it treats white collar criminals. 

Well said. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

[triplehorn 2664]

Traitors scared shitless 

 

VVV

Narrator: it will

[TwiceHorn 31990]

Knowing Vance, he probably charged Manafort with crimes barred by double jeopardy purposely so he could say he tried,but that darned old legislature foiled him. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

2 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Narrator: it will

I think it’s more likely they get charged with lying about collusion because that’s what they’ve been doing every chance they get. 

We’ve already determined there was collusion  (trump tower meeting, sharing polling data, trump tower Moscow, Russia if you’re listening) we don’t know how much collusion or how that might be criminally prosecuted.

The cover up is going to bring these clowns down IMO. 

[triplehorn 2664]

2 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I think it’s more likely they get charged with lying about collusion because that’s what they’ve been doing every chance they get. 

We’ve already determined there was collusion  (trump tower meeting, sharing polling data, trump tower Moscow, Russia if you’re listening) we don’t know how much collusion or how that might be criminally prosecuted.

The cover up is going to bring these clowns down IMO. 

I think ultimately there might be a mismatch between the evidence Mueller has and what could be charged.  That is to say, there possibly could be national security vs discovery implications affecting charges brought.  Certain evidence will likely be beneficial to keep under wraps for ongoing counterintel operations moving forward that could otherwise be used to seal away the traitors.

But I think 18 U.S. Code § 371 - Conspiracy against the United States with Russia is teed up for TrumpCo

[Nivek 17330]

I think it sounds pretty harsh for a 70 year old man in poor health.
 

Don’t commit the crime if you are not prepared to do the time.

[Gil Bang 26177]

@TwiceHorn I sincerely look forward to your commentary here.  

[TwiceHorn 31990]

29 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

@TwiceHorn I sincerely look forward to your commentary here.  

My evidence is pretty strictly anecdotal and comes from following this website. https://sentencing.typepad.com/ 

I have been following it for years and there is almost always a commentary on prominent sentencing cases, and almost all of the white collar cases come in substantially below guidelines.  So that doesn't surprise me.  I'm not sure what "DOJ support" means, it could mean a lot of different things.  Shkreli was looking at 27 years under the guidelines and got seven.  I don't believe the DOJ supported that in any way.  Pretty much everyone but Madoff gets off pretty easy.

Often, the DOJ will support something less than a high-guideline sentence as part of a plea, but it isn't usually a huge departure.  Manafort's original plea deal was remarkable in that it halved his potential sentence for cooperation (and it also halved his guidelines range for when he violated it: it replaced 20-year maximums with two five-year maximums).

I imagine that a lot of those reduced/under guideline sentences reported there are drug sentences, where the reality is that low-level people are indicted in hopes that they turn and actually know something, in which case the government usually supports a sentencing reduction.  It's good that they do that, I guess, but I find the practice of investigation by indictment that characterizes a lot of federal prosecutions to be very troubling.

A worthwhile note:  the sentencing guidelines use a variety of factors, many subject to proof, to arrive at some appropriate sentence.  When they were first enacted, they were mandatory, meaning a judge could not depart seriously from them without being reversed.  That was held unconstitutional because guidelines factors are only proven by a preponderance of the evidence, so they became strictly "advisory," meaning a judge did not have to follow them at all, but adherence to them could support a sentence on appeal as being reasonable.

For a while, the advisory nature of the guidelines didn't affect sentencing much (judges followed them because they didn't know what else to do).  The more modern trend, but it's not universal, is that the guidelines are frequently nonsensical and draconian and deviating downwardly from them has become somewhat customary for some judges.  Also, it seems that the "crankier" or more iconoclastic the judge, the more likely he or she is to deviate from the guidelines.  It was that factor, rather than any conservative background, that made it unsurprising to me that Ellis went low on Manafort's sentence.  The idea being that they don't need to be told what a proper sentence is.

The consensus seems to be that educated judges see educated defendants and internally sympathize with them and don't see them as a recidivist threat and acknowledge that any prison at all is going to be very shocking to the system and punitive for these snowflake types.

Theres something of a flipside to it, too.  Sam Lindsay, a black judge in Dallas, is pretty known to be lenient on drug offenders (presumably because he sees that as racist), but is pretty harsh on most other defendants by following the guidelines pretty rigorously.

Edited March 14, 2019 by TwiceHorn

[TwiceHorn 31990]

Here's an interesting piece of data from the Sentencing Commission itself:

Key Findings

• The offense severity, as measured by several guideline enhancements, varied significantly across the 17 specific types of economic crime that were the focus of this report.  In particular, median loss amounts varied substantially, with four specific offense types involving median losses far exceeding the median loss amount for all economic crime offenders of $131,750: securities and investment fraud ($2,105,620), health care fraud ($1,086,205), mortgage fraud ($999,721), and government procurement fraud ($739,455) and two specific offense types with the lowest median loss amounts: mail related fraud ($1,815) and false statements ($0).  These differences are particularly noteworthy because the loss calculation is the primary driver of the guideline calculation under §2B1.1.

• The average sentences varied significantly across the specific types of economic crime. Securities and investment fraud offenders received the longest average sentences at 52 months, more than twice as long as the average sentence for all economic crime offenders of 23 months.  False statements offenders received the shortest average sentence at five months.

https://sentencing.typepad.com/sentencing_law_and_policy/2019/01/us-sentencing-commission-releases-new-report-titled-what-does-federal-economic-crime-really-look-lik.html

So you see that securities fraud, on average, generates the highest loss numbers, and the highest sentences, but those are less than five years, on average.  Securities fraud carries a statutory maximum penalty of 25 years.  Wire and mail fraud, which are almost always chargeable in any of these cases, are 30 years.

Edited March 14, 2019 by TwiceHorn

[Gil Bang 26177]

I appreciate your analysis. Thanks.

[triplehorn 2664]

Today felt like the beginning of a turning point.

-Manhattan DA sends "no way out by pardon" message to all those in TrumpCo with NY criminal exposure within minutes of completion of Manafort DC sentencing.

-Cohen matters escalate in a way that suggests Rudy likely will soon have a date with a grand jury.

-Former Acting AG Whitaker does a 180 behind closed doors from his open House testimony about Trump obstruction and abuse of power.

-Further signs that Manhattan DA, NYAG, SDNY, and SCO are paying close attention to each others' moves and likely sharing evidence to facilitate prosecutions.

-Stuff Manhattan DA charged Manafort with are things he has essentially already admitted to to Mueller, and are the same type of crime for which Individual 1 (Trump) is implicated in Cohen SDNY guilty plea.

- full steam ahead towards Trump Org, Trump kids in NY - no pardons.

[DigglerontheHoof 21516]

4 hours ago, triplehorn said:

Today felt like the beginning of a turning point.

-Manhattan DA sends "no way out by pardon" message to all those in TrumpCo with NY criminal exposure within minutes of completion of Manafort DC sentencing.

-Cohen matters escalate in a way that suggests Rudy likely will soon have a date with a grand jury.

 -Former Acting AG Whitaker does a 180 behind closed doors from his open House testimony about Trump obstruction and abuse of power.

-Further signs that Manhattan DA, NYAG, SDNY, and SCO are paying close attention to each others' moves and likely sharing evidence to facilitate prosecutions.

-Stuff Manhattan DA charged Manafort with are things he has essentially already admitted to to Mueller, and are the same type of crime for which Individual 1 (Trump) is implicated in Cohen SDNY guilty plea.

- full steam ahead towards Trump Org, Trump kids in NY - no pardons.

Hadn't heard that....excellent.  Good going, Meathead. 

[Dbeasy 15526]

You are discounting another possibility although slim.  Trump could make a deal to get out of all state and federal charges if he agrees to resign.  
It would be his best exit strategy if something like that were on the table.   
Should a deal like that even be offered? 

I think you are living in fantasy land. Trump is going to skate. Pelosi’s announcement was most assuredly based upon her inside information that there is nothing in the Mueller report that implicates Trump. There will be a lot of speculation, but no hard evidence to go after him. Even the NY investigations probably won’t go anywhere. Rich, powerful people almost always wiggle out of justice, and Trump is a master of evasion.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

 

I think you are living in fantasy land. Trump is going to skate. Pelosi’s announcement was most assuredly based upon her inside information that there is nothing in the Mueller report that implicates Trump. There will be a lot of speculation, but no hard evidence to go after him. Even the NY investigations probably won’t go anywhere. Rich, powerful people almost always wiggle out of justice, and Trump is a master of evasion.

 

How would Mrs. Pelosi know anything about the details of an on going federal investigation ?  

[Pig Bellmont 8867]

Does Roger Stone go to jail today?

 

[Jack Straw 2955]

2 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

 

I think you are living in fantasy land. Trump is going to skate. Pelosi’s announcement was most assuredly based upon her inside information that there is nothing in the Mueller report that implicates Trump. There will be a lot of speculation, but no hard evidence to go after him. Even the NY investigations probably won’t go anywhere. Rich, powerful people almost always wiggle out of justice, and Trump is a master of evasion.

 

trump is going to skate no matter what the report says

[jimmyjazz 46979]

1 hour ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

How would Mrs. Pelosi know anything about the details of an on going federal investigation ?  

Seriously?  She's part of the Gang of Eight.  They receive classified intelligence briefings from the Executive branch.  It's not a stretch.

Gang of Eight:

Schiff

Nunes

Burr

Warner

Pelosi

McCarthy

McConnell

Schumer

[jimmyjazz 46979]

2 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

 

I think you are living in fantasy land. Trump is going to skate. Pelosi’s announcement was most assuredly based upon her inside information that there is nothing in the Mueller report that implicates Trump. 

 

Eh, it could be the opposite -- she is table setting for a "our hands were tied, we had to impeach" revelation.  Personally, I think she's just devious enough to relish that kind of play.

[triplehorn 2664]

2 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

I think you are living in fantasy land. Trump is going to skate. Pelosi’s announcement was most assuredly based upon her inside information that there is nothing in the Mueller report that implicates Trump.

 

otoh, for a person who's the third in line of succession in the event POTUS and VP aren't available, no one will be able to claim she was gunning for it if and when such a situation arrives.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

Zoe Tillman's been putting in some serious hours.

[Pig Bellmont 8867]

womp womp 

[triplehorn 2664]

Stone trial set for 1st week of November.

He has to try keep himself muzzled for the next 8 months.

[jimmyjazz 46979]

10 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Stone trial set for 1st week of November.

He has to try keep himself muzzled for the next 8 months.

He's not going to be able to keep himself muzzled for the next 8 hours.

[TwiceHorn 31990]

Back to Manafort, having compared the indictments (and there's some room for error here because the NY indictments are factually skimpy), I'm going to have a hard time believing that the NY indictment isn't dismissed for double jeopardy.  No one can claim with a straight face that residential mortgage fraud (NY crime) and federal bank fraud are not the same crime: bank fraud completely subsumes mortgage fraud, and the same seems to be true of the other crimes (conspiracy to commit bank fraud and falsification of recorfs).

[atomheartbevo 90549]

3 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

I think you are living in fantasy land. Trump is going to skate. Pelosi’s announcement was most assuredly based upon her inside information that there is nothing in the Mueller report that implicates Trump. There will be a lot of speculation, but no hard evidence to go after him. Even the NY investigations probably won’t go anywhere. Rich, powerful people almost always wiggle out of justice, and Trump is a master of evasion.

 

Trump is acting exactly like somebody who is scared shitless that they won’t skate.  It’s almost like he knows Trump Org is going to be dismantled and he can’t do anything about it.  

If he was the alpha male he pretends to be, and if he thought he was in the clear, he wouldn’t be doing everything he can to undermine whatever Mueller’s report shows, he wouldn’t spend hours obsessing over Twitter, and he wouldn’t spend half the day watching Fox News.