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The Robert Mueller Investigation


Hugo Stiglitz

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38 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

It is generally believed that the Supremacy Clause would ultimately prevent a state indictment of the sitting President.

However, that belief/opinion is probably not made the policy of any state Attorney General or prosecuting attorney, so the path to "giving it a go" is much easier for a state authority.

 

Even if the crimes being charged were committed before the president held office? I was under the impression supremacy clause only covered actions while in office

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55 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

I would hope, in that instance, DOJ would disregard a non-binding legal memorandum and indict the president if facts warrant it.

There's nothing in the law that says a sitting president cannot be indicted. It's just DOJ policy.

 Exactly. 

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29 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Even if the crimes being charged were committed before the president held office? I was under the impression supremacy clause only covered actions while in office

It's all tea leaf reading based on not-quite-on-point Supreme Court and other decisions.  Distinctions have been drawn for conduct in office versus out of office and civil case versus criminal. The only one that has been decided is a federal civil case based on conduct out of office, which may proceed.  Everything else is up for grabs.

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20 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

It's all tea leaf reading based on not-quite-on-point Supreme Court and other decisions.  Distinctions have been drawn for conduct in office versus out of office and civil case versus criminal. The only one that has been decided is a federal civil case based on conduct out of office, which may proceed.  Everything else is up for grabs.

Misstated.  The President is also immune from all civil actions for acts occurring in office as part of official duty, whether of state or federal origin.

Edited by TwiceHorn
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Related to Trump abruptly last week starting to signal "there should be no Mueller report," and concerns that current regulations might allow the AG to not release the report, keep in mind something that can be used again as a contingency - the concept of the Road Map.  This came up well over a year ago, and re-visiting now is apt.

Watergate prosecutor Jill Wine-Banks wrote about the Road Map last week:  Mueller Grand Jury, If You’re Listening . . .

Spoiler

It seems the Mueller report is going to come like a thief in the night. No one knows for sure when it will come or how much of it will be made public or given to Congress.

Whenever it is complete, current regulations may allow the Attorney General to prevent release of the report, but that does not need to be the end of the matter. There is an alternate way for the content of the Mueller Report to become public.

The Watergate Special Prosecutor’s grand jury paved the way forty-five years ago, establishing a method the Mueller grand jurors can utilize to get their work and materials to the people who count most just now: the members of the House Judiciary Committee. This, in turn, could allow the materials to be revealed to those who have a right and need to know the facts: all citizens and voters.

In the spring of 1974, the Watergate grand jurors returned an indictment against President Nixon’s top aides, named Nixon an unindicted co-conspirator, and delivered a two-page “Report and Recommendation” to Judge John Sirica, the federal judge overseeing their work. That Report was handed to Judge Sirica in a briefcase with voluminous evidence from their investigation, including documents, testimony, tapes, and transcripts. The grand jury specifically requested that materials in the briefcase be transmitted to the House of Representatives.

This material came to be referred to as the Road Map, as it pointed the way for Congress in its impeachment inquiry without drawing any conclusions or pointing to any specific crime.

Judge Sirica granted the grand jury’s request and transmitted the Road Map to Congress. His decision turned heavily on the fact that the grand jury itself had expressed its desire that otherwise secret materials should be sent to the House. He also took notice that the House Judiciary Committee had asked to receive the material to avoid the need to re-interview all the witnesses and to subpoena all the tapes and documents in order to substantially shorten the time needed for its impeachment inquiry.

This Watergate Road Map precedent gives Mr. Mueller and the current grand jury a way to proceed if they conclude that the evidence supports impeachable offenses or criminal charges against the president for conspiracy with Russia to interfere with the 2016 elections or for obstructing the special counsel’s investigation but they are prevented from indicting President Trump based on Office of Legal Counsel precedent that holds that a sitting president cannot be indicted no matter what the evidence shows (an opinion we believe has no basis in the Constitution).

Judge Sirica’s well-reasoned opinion was based on history, precedent and the specific facts of Watergate and was affirmed on appeal. The standard it set would allow disclosure of grand jury material to the House now. Of note, the Sirica opinion has been favorably cited by Chief Judge Beryl Howell, the federal judge who oversees the Mueller grand jury. Judge Howell did so just last year in response to a request from CNN for the release of still secret grand jury materials from the Clinton investigation.

One difference between then and now is that the grand jury in 1974 knew of an already existing impeachment inquiry by the House Judiciary Committee. “It is the belief of the Grand Jury that it should presently defer to the House of Representatives and allow the House to determine what action may be warranted at this time by the evidence,” the grand jurors wrote to Judge Sirica.

However, an existing impeachment inquiry is not a prerequisite for release of the grand jury’s evidence. The exclusive authority on matters of impeachment belongs to Congress. That is true whether there is an investigation formally underway or if one might be instituted based on evidence that the Mueller grand jury has assembled.

The logic is the materials should be available to Congress if impeachment is the question.

Another potential difference is that the Nixon White House did not object to the transmittal of the grand jury materials to Congress in the Watergate situation. But even if President Trump did object, likely sparking a Supreme Court test, that should not change the result.

“It should not be forgotten,” Judge Sirica wrote, “that we deal in a matter of the most critical moment to the nation, an impeachment investigation involving the President of the United States. It would be difficult to conceive of a more compelling need than that of this country for an unswervingly fair inquiry based on all the pertinent information.”

We think and hope that the Supreme Court would agree with Judge Sirica and we believe that the Mueller grand jury would have history on its side if they petition the supervising judge to release the fruits of their investigation to the House Judiciary Committee.

"[...]The Watergate Special Prosecutor’s grand jury paved the way forty-five years ago, establishing a method the Mueller grand jurors can utilize to get their work and materials to the people who count most just now: the members of the House Judiciary Committee. This, in turn, could allow the materials to be revealed to those who have a right and need to know the facts: all citizens and voters.

In the spring of 1974, the Watergate grand jurors returned an indictment against President Nixon’s top aides, named Nixon an unindicted co-conspirator, and delivered a two-page “Report and Recommendation” to Judge John Sirica, the federal judge overseeing their work. That Report was handed to Judge Sirica in a briefcase with voluminous evidence from their investigation, including documents, testimony, tapes, and transcripts. The grand jury specifically requested that materials in the briefcase be transmitted to the House of Representatives.

This material came to be referred to as the Road Map, as it pointed the way for Congress in its impeachment inquiry without drawing any conclusions or pointing to any specific crime.

Judge Sirica granted the grand jury’s request and transmitted the Road Map to Congress. His decision turned heavily on the fact that the grand jury itself had expressed its desire that otherwise secret materials should be sent to the House. He also took notice that the House Judiciary Committee had asked to receive the material to avoid the need to re-interview all the witnesses and to subpoena all the tapes and documents in order to substantially shorten the time needed for its impeachment inquiry.

[...]

Judge Sirica’s well-reasoned opinion was based on history, precedent, and the specific facts of Watergate, and was affirmed on appeal. The standard it set would allow disclosure of grand jury material to the House now. Of note, the Sirica opinion has been favorably cited by Chief Judge Beryl Howell, the federal judge who oversees the Mueller grand jury. Judge Howell did so just last year in response to a request from CNN for the release of still secret grand jury materials from the Clinton investigation.

[...]

However, an existing impeachment inquiry is not a prerequisite for release of the grand jury’s evidence. The exclusive authority on matters of impeachment belongs to Congress. That is true whether there is an investigation formally underway or if one might be instituted based on evidence that the Mueller grand jury has assembled.

The logic is the materials should be available to Congress if impeachment is the question.

Another potential difference is that the Nixon White House did not object to the transmittal of the grand jury materials to Congress in the Watergate situation. But even if President Trump did object, likely sparking a Supreme Court test, that should not change the result.

cont."

 

 

 

Edited by triplehorn
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On 3/16/2019 at 1:01 PM, David Dennison said:

I would hope, in that instance, DOJ would disregard a non-binding legal memorandum and indict the president if facts warrant it.

There's nothing in the law that says a sitting president cannot be indicted. It's just DOJ policy.

What's the point of having an emoluments clause, a federal election law against foreign interference in elections, or any others if a sitting president is above them?  

Edited by Mdhorn
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57 minutes ago, Mdhorn said:

What's the point of having an emoluments clause, a federal election law against foreign interference in elections, or any others if a sitting president is above them?  

Exactly.  A Special Counsel obstruction of justice probe involving a grand jury and likely criminal findings on a target who can’t be indicted? If that’s the case, what’s the point of a grand jury ?  I’m open to any explanation. 

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Exactly.  A Special Counsel obstruction of justice probe involving a grand jury and likely criminal findings on a target who can’t be indicted? If that’s the case, what’s the point of a grand jury ?  I’m open to any explanation. 

I think the theory in favor of no crim prosecution is the constitution set forth the impeachment and conviction process and the judicial branch should not intervene.
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8 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

In that context, what’s the function of a grand jury ?

 

To provide the evidence to be used as part of the impeachment proceedings.   If you can start an impeachment process using a deposition saying you did not have sex with your intern, you can use evidence of money laundering and  tax evasion obtained by a Grand Jury from witnesses under oath.  And Clinton did not have co-conspirators in his blow job denial, at least not in the same way that Trump has co-conspirators in his kids taking part in the crimes.   Not indicting Trump does not mean not indicting his idiot, dirty progeny.  

Edited by Gatorubet
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1 hour ago, troph said:


I think the theory in favor of no crim prosecution is the constitution set forth the impeachment and conviction process and the judicial branch should not intervene.

congress has shown that it is too easily not worthy of that responsibility.  legal oversight of the executive branch should belong to people who do that on a normal basis.

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What's the point of having an emoluments clause, a federal election law against foreign interference in elections, or any others if a sitting president is above them?  

He’s not.

BUT....that depends on a senate that will do it’s job instead of be treasonous collaborators. Fatal flaw in our system. Whomp whomp.
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15 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I don’t think he’s ever been so unhinged on Twitter - constantly retweeting, attacking everybody, pouring all of his fears out, etc.  

His output today was through the roof   

This week must be big.   

Or he's a narcissist with early stage dementia, who's sundowning today.

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:


He’s not.

BUT....that depends on a senate that will do it’s job instead of be treasonous collaborators. Fatal flaw in our system. Whomp whomp.

Except that the system used to work.  I agree with you -- everything hinged on a certain level of honor and trust, and the Republicans no longer know the meaning of either, but it's a damn shame that our country apparently needs more specific and concrete rules to keep the inmates from taking over the asylum.

As I said last night, there is an ultimate end game here.  It will be ugly.  The numbers are in our favor.

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5 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

To provide the evidence to be used as part of the impeachment proceedings.   If you can start an impeachment process using a deposition saying you did not have sex with your intern, you can use evidence of money laundering and  tax evasion obtained by a Grand Jury from witnesses under oath.  And Clinton did not have co-conspirators in his blow job denial, at least not in the same way that Trump has co-conspirators in his kids taking part in the crimes.   Not indicting Trump does not mean not indicting his idiot, dirty progeny.  

Dotard publicly asked the Russians to hack Hillary's emails.  How is that not an open shut case?  He should have been removed when he said it.  

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Another RNC deputy national finance chair, Eliot Broidy, is in the news again today over the raid of his office last summer (Michael Cohen held the same RNC title as you recall).  Broiy resigned from that position in April 2018 amidst revelations of payoffs to a former playmate over an affair and abortion.

From Reuters Leah Millis:

"A sealed search warrant issued by the Justice Department and obtained by ProPublica gives new details about a raid on the offices of Republican fundraiser Elliott Broidy last summer. According to the warrant, the investigators were looking for records “related to his dealings with foreign officials and Trump administration associates.” They were searching for any ties to China, Saudi Arabia, and a Miami Beach club promoter, ProPublica reports. The raid was first reported by The Washington Post last summer. The warrant suggests the government was much more aggressive with Broidy than previously known, “entering his office and removing records—just as it did with Trump’s personal lawyer Michael Cohen,” the news site says. Before becoming a Trump megadonor, Broidy pleaded guilty to his role in a New York state public corruption and bribery case. The previously sealed warrant suggest investigators are now focused on “conspiracy, money laundering, and violations of the law barring covert lobbying on behalf of foreign officials,” ProPublica writes, adding that agents were reportedly authorized to use Broidy’s hands or face to unlock any devices that required fingerprint or facial scans."

That makes two RNC deputy national finance chairs getting raided and having the contents of their offices hauled off and devices unlocked with fingerprints and facial scans.  Most of us know that Senate Republicans are Trump's ultimate firewall.  The feds appear poised to breach that ring.  Exposing corrupt R's covering-up their conspiracy with Trump around laundering foreign cash donations and covert quid pro quo could be the linchpin in removing Trump for his abuses and crimes.

 

link to the full ProPublica article:

Federal Authorities Raided Trump Fundraiser’s Office in Money Laundering Probe

Edited by triplehorn
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1 hour ago, triplehorn said:

Another RNC deputy national finance chair, Eliot Broidy, is in the news again today over the raid of his office last summer (Michael Cohen held the same RNC title as you recall).  Broiy resigned from that position in April 2018 amidst revelations of payoffs to a former playmate over an affair and abortion.

From Reuters Leah Millis:

"A sealed search warrant issued by the Justice Department and obtained by ProPublica gives new details about a raid on the offices of Republican fundraiser Elliott Broidy last summer. According to the warrant, the investigators were looking for records “related to his dealings with foreign officials and Trump administration associates.” They were searching for any ties to China, Saudi Arabia, and a Miami Beach club promoter, ProPublica reports. The raid was first reported by The Washington Post last summer. The warrant suggests the government was much more aggressive with Broidy than previously known, “entering his office and removing records—just as it did with Trump’s personal lawyer Michael Cohen,” the news site says. Before becoming a Trump megadonor, Broidy pleaded guilty to his role in a New York state public corruption and bribery case. The previously sealed warrant suggest investigators are now focused on “conspiracy, money laundering, and violations of the law barring covert lobbying on behalf of foreign officials,” ProPublica writes, adding that agents were reportedly authorized to use Broidy’s hands or face to unlock any devices that required fingerprint or facial scans."

That makes two RNC deputy national finance chairs getting raided and having the contents of their offices hauled off and devices unlocked with fingerprints and facial scans.  Most of us know that Senate Republicans are Trump's ultimate firewall.  The feds appear poised to breach that ring.  Exposing corrupt R's covering-up their conspiracy with Trump around laundering foreign cash donations and covert quid pro quo could be the linchpin in removing Trump for his abuses and crimes.

 

link to the full ProPublica article:

Federal Authorities Raided Trump Fundraiser’s Office in Money Laundering Probe

It's not immediately clear from the title but this raid actually happened July 2018, and we're only finding out about it now because of a FIOA request that unsealed the warrant. So Mueller has been chewing on this for a while. I'm thinking RICO charges?

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3 hours ago, Captainant said:

It's not immediately clear from the title but this raid actually happened July 2018, and we're only finding out about it now because of a FIOA request that unsealed the warrant. So Mueller has been chewing on this for a while. I'm thinking RICO charges?

I think yes, that's a distinct possibility.  But signs of this date back to May 2017, after Trump fired Dir FBI Comey.  About 4 days after Comey got fired and a few days before Mueller got appointed Special Counsel, the FBI raided a GOP fundraising outfit in Maryland with ties to Manafort,  Stone, and Trump - Strategic Campaign Group:

Quote

ANNAPOLIS, Md. — FBI agents executed a search warrant Thursday at an office of a fundraising and consulting firm in Annapolis that works for Republican candidates and conservative causes nationwide, the 11 News I-Team has learned.

The investigation is being run out of Washington, not locally, the I-Team has learned. The Washington FBI office said the investigation, including the raid, is being done with “fierce coordination.”

An FBI spokesperson said don't expect a release of documents "anytime soon."

 

Newsweek:

Quote

...GOP strategists Kelley Rogers, who founded the firm told local newspaper Capital Gazette that six FBI agents had raided the office to gather computer files and documents related to the firm’s direct mail and fundraising practices.

The raids followed the sacking of FBI director James Comey, who had been leading an investigation into alleged links between Trump officials and Russia during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign....

 

twitter peeps were doing some early leg work then as well:

 

 

Comey/FBI was onto this even before the start of Mueller's appointment.  The investigation has only deepened since, working its way up to RNC deputy national finance chairs Michael Cohen and Elliot Broidy, who both have been the subjects of successful search and seizure warrants.

I'd say things are pretty ripe for picking right about now.

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20 hours ago, Mdhorn said:

Dotard publicly asked the Russians to hack Hillary's emails.  How is that not an open shut case?  He should have been removed when he said it.  

Impeachment is a political process, not a criminal one.  So who was going to vote for impeachment in the House - or a 2/3 vote to convict in the Senate? 

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There will never be a vote in the senate.  Upon impeachment in the House all it takes is 20 GOP Senators to tell Trump to GTFO and resign or they will remove him.   That’s it.  

 I imagine many GOP Senators wouldn’t want to go on the record either way to remove Trump because it would define their legacy and cost them politically.  It’s easier to force Trump to resign than go through a painful public senate trial. 

These senators are not Trumpkins and if Trump resigns it gives them plausible deniability from the base. 

Of course this would only go down if the house actually impeached him which I still don’t think is going to happen.

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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11 hours ago, triplehorn said:

That makes two RNC deputy national finance chairs getting raided and having the contents of their offices hauled off and devices unlocked with fingerprints and facial scans.  Most of us know that Senate Republicans are Trump's ultimate firewall.  The feds appear poised to breach that ring.  Exposing corrupt R's covering-up their conspiracy with Trump around laundering foreign cash donations and covert quid pro quo could be the linchpin in removing Trump for his abuses and crimes.

That explains the Republican paranoia.  

We know Linda changed his tune about Trump after a golf outing.  

But I wonder if he really started losing his shit around the time of that raid past year.  

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There will never be a vote in the senate.  Upon impeachment in the House all it takes is 20 GOP Senators to tell Trump to GTFO and resign or they will remove him.   That’s it.  
 I imagine many GOP Senators wouldn’t want to go on the record either way to remove Trump because it would define their legacy and cost them politically.  It’s easier to force Trump to resign than go through a painful public senate trial. 
These senators are not Trumpkins and if Trump resigns it gives them plausible deniability from the base. 
Of course this would only go down if the house actually impeached him which I still don’t think is going to happen.


You think Trump will recognize a no win situation, eat a shit sandwich, and go quietly in to the night? I read him differently.
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On 3/17/2019 at 8:04 PM, jimmyjazz said:

Except that the system used to work.  I agree with you -- everything hinged on a certain level of honor and trust, and the Republicans no longer know the meaning of either, but it's a damn shame that our country apparently needs more specific and concrete rules to keep the inmates from taking over the asylum.

As I said last night, there is an ultimate end game here.  It will be ugly.  The numbers are in our favor.

totally agree.  we are going to see things this country has never seen.  people who have had free rein to plot against the rest of us will find it's not the cozy place it used to be.  in a very real sense, they've blown it.

i don't like to compare events with fiction, whether movie or whatever, because fiction can be as unrealistic and as impracticable as an audience will allow.  when our superhero defeats five bad guys who mostly just stood around to take the blows, we don't notice how goofy it really is.

that said, i am reminded of a tv series from way back when i used to watch tv.  many or most of you won't recognize the title mission impossible.  never mind most people called it mission implausible, the plot always seemed to feature a goal that wasn't approachable in any usual, main force sense, but relied on crafting a sequence of careful actions with meticulous timing to satisfy the assignment.  of course, all the agents were perfect and nobody sneezed at just the wrong time.  thus it wasn't reality, but we bought it, lock, stock, and bilious baloney.

what we are watching is a true-life mission impossible.  no cleavers here.  that's not available.  this is meticulous unwinding like defusing a bomb from the wrong end.

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9 minutes ago, yaqdum said:

totally agree.  we are going to see things this country has never seen.  people who have had free rein to plot against the rest of us will find it's not the cozy place it used to be.  in a very real sense, they've blown it.

i don't like to compare events with fiction, whether movie or whatever, because fiction can be as unrealistic and as impracticable as an audience will allow.  when our superhero defeats five bad guys who mostly just stood around to take the blows, we don't notice how goofy it really is.

that said, i am reminded of a tv series from way back when i used to watch tv.  many or most of you won't recognize the title mission impossible.  never mind most people called it mission implausible, the plot always seemed to feature a goal that wasn't approachable in any usual, main force sense, but relied on crafting a sequence of careful actions with meticulous timing to satisfy the assignment.  of course, all the agents were perfect and nobody sneezed at just the wrong time.  thus it wasn't reality, but we bought it, lock, stock, and bilious baloney.

what we are watching is a true-life mission impossible.  no cleavers here.  that's not available.  this is meticulous unwinding like defusing a bomb from the wrong end.

72c2f9ad16705831845ca3109c7da0c3db91a1cc

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10 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

This is a 'both sides' initiative that has my full support.  Ride 'em in, cut 'em out.  The political stripe doesn't matter.

I completely agree, but this just screams "politics", and not the kind Trump has been bitching about for several years.  It's legal whataboutism.  I'm fine with it, but I would hope the DOJ (as opposed to the Special Counsel in particular, who was charged to investigate only Trump) would actually turn a blind eye towards party affiliation going forward.  I'll believe it when I see it.  If anything, Trump's DOJ is more at his pro-Republican (or pro-Trump) beck and call than what he implicates on a near-daily basis.  Unfortunately, his base is too fucking stupid to see the forest for the trees.

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^^^^

oh shit.  there it is again.

the fine print on Cohen's affidavit under 'Code Section' and 'Offense Description' 

--->  18 U.S. Code § 371  Conspiracy to to defraud United States

 

I suppose that could be a more generic type reference applying to separate matters , but that particular offense is a common thread in Mueller's indictments that traces back to the Russian attack on our election

Edited by triplehorn
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2 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Isn't he done being charged though?

I don't think so.  He got nailed by SDNY related to the illegal Stormy payoff.  That was also an opportunity to cooperate on Russia, which he has not.  Now that that window has closed, perhaps it's time for Mueller to advance. 

Cohen getting off with only 3 years on a guilty plea over a pornstar payoff, with all his involvement in everything else??   You think bad mouthing his boss in front of Congress and the world shows he's ready to be honest and that he came clean?  fuhgeddaboudit.

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Oh God, the irony.

https://www.rawstory.com/2019/03/revealed-prosecutors-used-new-trump-law-get-access-cohens-emails/

 

Quote

CNN reported Tuesday that in February 2018, SDNY investigators requested access to Cohen’s accounts from Google — but were rebuffed from accessing most of his data as it was stored overseas.

Weeks later, however, Trump signed the CLOUD Act that now allows law enforcement to get more access to overseas data storage.

 

Quote

After the new law took effect, SDNY prosecutors went back to court to ask for a new warrant to search Cohen’s Gmail accounts, arguing in April 2018 that “providers are required to disclose data even if it is stored abroad” in another FBI affidavit.

“The judge approved the new search warrant later that day,” CNN reported, “giving investigators access to additional information from Google, including Cohen’s emails, attachments, address book and files stored on Google Drive.”

 

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1 hour ago, triplehorn said:

This is a 'both sides' initiative that has my full support.  Ride 'em in, cut 'em out.  The political stripe doesn't matter.

 

 

It was inevitable that a Dem or many Dems would get caught up in this. I don't think this will soften the position of the Dem opposition nor make them sympathetic to the Dem criminals.

When you watch the GOPs, you almost have to conclude mass complicity throughout the powerful of that party and much of the rank and file. From Nunez to Mitch to Ryan, all appearances (to me) indicate a conspiracy to smother this issue. A fearful conspiracy. A desperate conspiracy.

I, too, will be glad to see any suspected Dems investigated and punished if guilty. They can all go in the iron cage destined for the bottom of the cold Atlantic.

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4 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

He will be made an offer he can't refuse. 

Perhaps something like, resign or we will impeach you and the new DOJ will prosecute you.  You will be humiliated and jailed.  Granted, I don't think he is easily humiliated when he can tweet back, but it's difficult to twatter from prison.

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12 minutes ago, retread said:

^ Do you think state prosecutors would agree to a deal? I wonder how that transaction would work?

Perhaps but I honestly don't think he gets impeached. 

The republicans in the house will have to start publicly calling for it (fat chance) otherwise Nancy will Benghazi the shit out of him until November 2020.

Pelosi has made it very clear there needs to be bipartisan support for impeachment. 

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