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The Robert Mueller Investigation

Hugo Stiglitz

By Hugo Stiglitz
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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21102

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5 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Outside of Mueller and pre Whitaker/Barr, he was the only one in a position to make a call on the direction of the Mueller investigation.  He likely faced extreme pressure from Trump to neuter the Mueller investigation.  Trump never firing Rosenstein also says a lot even though there were multiple occasions we thought Rosenstein was being fired/dismissed.  What did Rosenstein do to hang on to his job for so long?  I don't know but I can imagine. 

Lol.  Come on Hugo.  You can imagine?  JFC

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Goredho
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Just to make sure I have the alternative facts straight...  Our government -- but I'm guessing only the deep state part of it --- is now guilty of torturing a poor, naive Russian exchange student who

Incredulity
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liberals suddenly being terrified of Russia and manic for election integrity is just pure comedy gold.

Chooky
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I don't believe for a moment that any of this is entertaining to you.  I think it gives you a bit of anxiety knowing that your best weapon against a group who you despise is a bumbling fraud as a busi

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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3 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Lol.  Come on Hugo.  You can imagine?  JFC

I still have confidence in Rosenstein to serve the public in good faith.  My point was the optics around Rod Rosenstein look shitty and that's not necessarily his fault.  When your boss is Donald Trump you're likely to get some shit on you. 

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

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9 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Outside of Mueller and pre Whitaker/Barr, he was the only one in a position to make a call on the direction of the Mueller investigation.  He likely faced extreme pressure from Trump to neuter the Mueller investigation.  Trump never firing Rosenstein also says a lot even though there were multiple occasions we thought Rosenstein was being fired/dismissed.  What did Rosenstein do to hang on to his job for so long?  I don't know but I can imagine. 

I can't find it at first glance, but there were signs, I think late last summer, where Rosenstein was positioning himself to potentially fight being fired by Trump 'without cause' during that time Sessions was still the recused AG .  RR may have had legal representation, if memory serves.  I distinctly remember it, but can't spot it yet, and it barely made a ripple in the news.  Rosenstein may end up being the survivor with the most battle scars all told.

We also know that Rosenstein has possibly been witness to Trump obstruction.  Same for multiple current and past federal officials who may be called to testify before HJC as Congress takes up questions around Trump obstruction of justice.

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Enchubben

Enchubben 5509

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1 hour ago, elfenix said:

Am I taking crazy pills?


https://r.tapatalk.com/shareLink?url=https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/index.php?/topic/7866-looks-like-we-have-another-fake-hate-crime/&share_tid=7866&share_fid=2053247&share_type=t

if you are referring to the Jessie thread being missing - there was a different thread yesterday on it that is no longer there.

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bolverk

bolverk 29402

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Very interesting piece regarding the distinctions between a criminal investigation and a counterintelligence one that questions why the Barr memo (or potentially the Mueller report) are silent on the counterintelligence side of the equation. In other words, there are still many lingering concerns/questions that can only be addressed by the findings of a counterintelligence one because the Barr summary only gives his opinions on potential criminal conspiracy.

 https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/03/barrs-summary-omits-key-aspect-muellers-report/585703/

Also, includes the shitty precedent this sets for the expansion of presidential powers.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23394

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53 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Very interesting piece regarding the distinctions between a criminal investigation and a counterintelligence one that questions why the Barr memo (or potentially the Mueller report) are silent on the counterintelligence side of the equation. In other words, there are still many lingering concerns/questions that can only be addressed by the findings of a counterintelligence one because the Barr summary only gives his opinions on potential criminal conspiracy.

 https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/03/barrs-summary-omits-key-aspect-muellers-report/585703/

Also, includes the shitty precedent this sets for the expansion of presidential powers.

What's your thinking in terms of what is going to come out?

Here is how I would cap the chances for various content in the full Mueller report:

Mueller report includes details on one or more events with a potentially collusiony appearance, but which don't establish conspiracy or coordination - Fairly likely. Trump tower meeting as an example.

...one or more events that are strongly collusiony , but which don't establish conspiracy or coordination due to some legal technicality  - Unlikely.  E.g., alfa bank/spectrum health/trump tower servers coordinating social media attacks with Russia, but can't be tied directly back to campaign for some reason.

...a web of contacts and situations that don't form a coherent organized picture of conspiracy or coordination, but demonstrate that the Trump campaign was an amateur hour clown show staffed by people motivated by their own self interests - Pretty likely. 

...evidence of potential compromising information in the possession of Russia or another foreign power, whether financial or personal or both - Quite likely. Financial ties related to international real estates deals are a given. Pee pee tape still on the board as well. 

...some events that represent clear conspiracy and coordination - Not gonna happen. E.g., cohen travels to prague to coordinate payment and strategy with Russian government hackers.

   

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wildcat09

wildcat09 29258

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14 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

What's your thinking in terms of what is going to come out?

Here is how I would cap the chances for various content in the full Mueller report:

Mueller report includes details on one or more events with a potentially collusiony appearance, but which don't establish conspiracy or coordination - Fairly likely. Trump tower meeting as an example.

...one or more events that are strongly collusiony , but which don't establish conspiracy or coordination due to some legal technicality  - Unlikely.  E.g., alfa bank/spectrum health/trump tower servers coordinating social media attacks with Russia, but can't be tied directly back to campaign for some reason.

...a web of contacts and situations that don't form a coherent organized picture of conspiracy or coordination, but demonstrate that the Trump campaign was an amateur hour clown show staffed by people motivated by their own self interests - Pretty likely. 

...evidence of potential compromising information in the possession of Russia or another foreign power, whether financial or personal or both - Quite likely. Financial ties related to international real estates deals are a given. Pee pee tape still on the board as well. 

...some events that represent clear conspiracy and coordination - Not gonna happen. E.g., cohen travels to prague to coordinate payment and strategy with Russian government hackers.

   

I'd guess it's both #2 and #3 on your list. I think we'd see evidence of a general intent by Trump's campaign to work in concert with Russia through cutouts. That's essentially what Roger Stone was charged with in his indictment. No clearly expressed agreement to coordinate but behavior establishing pretty clearly, but not beyond a reasonable doubt, that they intended to work together to help Trump get elected in exchange for Russia-favorable foreign policy concessions. I had actually dismissed the "social media coordination" angle as most likely nonsense until pretty recently. The reveal of Manafort giving private campaign polling data and the very narrow wording in Barr's letter that no U.S. person "knowingly coordinated" (with a somewhat tight definition for "coordinated") with the IRA leads me to think they might have found something there as well, even if was something they didn't think they could prove to be intentional coordination (like Manafort handing private polling data to a Russian agent who is a step or two removed from the IRA without knowing what exactly he was going to do with it).

Very generally, I think Mueller has a shitload of evidence of various crimes including largely unrelated financial dealings by Trump and his band of morons, together with a web of circumstantial evidence of conspiracy that might meet a clear and convincing threshold but not the criminal threshold of beyond a reasonable doubt. 

I also think Trump never expected to win and thus never thought he'd have to follow through with any of his promises, which is why they panicked when they actually won and tripped all over their dicks 100 times when they realized Vlad was going to want them to pay up.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45560

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5 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Very generally, I think Mueller has a shitload of evidence of various crimes including largely unrelated financial dealings by Trump and his band of morons, together with a web of circumstantial evidence of conspiracy that might meet a clear and convincing threshold but not the criminal threshold of beyond a reasonable doubt. 

Is there a cheat sheet out there detailing which indictments, convictions or guilty pleas actually have something to do with Russia?  The mind spins continuously.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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22 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

What's your thinking in terms of what is going to come out?

Here is how I would cap the chances for various content in the full Mueller report:

Mueller report includes details on one or more events with a potentially collusiony appearance, but which don't establish conspiracy or coordination - Fairly likely. Trump tower meeting as an example.

...one or more events that are strongly collusiony , but which don't establish conspiracy or coordination due to some legal technicality  - Unlikely.  E.g., alfa bank/spectrum health/trump tower servers coordinating social media attacks with Russia, but can't be tied directly back to campaign for some reason.

...a web of contacts and situations that don't form a coherent organized picture of conspiracy or coordination, but demonstrate that the Trump campaign was an amateur hour clown show staffed by people motivated by their own self interests - Pretty likely. 

...evidence of potential compromising information in the possession of Russia or another foreign power, whether financial or personal or both - Quite likely. Financial ties related to international real estates deals are a given. Pee pee tape still on the board as well. 

...some events that represent clear conspiracy and coordination - Not gonna happen. E.g., cohen travels to prague to coordinate payment and strategy with Russian government hackers.

   

I think the best predictor of what they’re going to show us comes from the Mueller indictments on record.  Any information indicating a conspiracy or Americans being compromised will be withheld from public view.  We know Flynn was compromised but still haven’t seen any details on that.  

It was clear they weren’t going to expose a conspiracy (even if it existed) in the Manafort files when they never explicitly tied him to Russia intelligence even though we know he had ongoing political and business relationships with Kilimnik and Deripaska during the 2016 election cycle.  They tied all his nefarious and criminal overseas activities to Ukraine and never Russia.  That was a big tell.  

However, I do expect them to release more detailed information on the Russians activities during the 2016 election to increase public awareness of their tactics. Maybe even some of the targeting data.

The real mystery is how much non-public evidence on obstruction are they going to let us see?  I’d love to see Trump’s first draft of the four page letter firing Comey.  That’s a huge piece of evidence we know exists but hasn’t been made public. 

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23394

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35 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

I'd guess it's both #2 and #3 on your list. I think we'd see evidence of a general intent by Trump's campaign to work in concert with Russia through cutouts. That's essentially what Roger Stone was charged with in his indictment. No clearly expressed agreement to coordinate but behavior establishing pretty clearly, but not beyond a reasonable doubt, that they intended to work together to help Trump get elected in exchange for Russia-favorable foreign policy concessions.

I'd put Stone under item #1, unless as you say there is a clearly articulated quid pro quo, more than just an alignment of foreign policy interests, but a clear quid pro quo that is established in connection. That would move it from "potentially collusiony appearance" to "strongly collusiony" in my mind.

35 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

The reveal of Manafort giving private campaign polling data and the very narrow wording in Barr's letter that no U.S. person "knowingly coordinated" (with a somewhat tight definition for "coordinated") with the IRA leads me to think they might have found something there as well, even if was something they didn't think they could prove to be intentional coordination (like Manafort handing private polling data to a Russian agent who is a step or two removed from the IRA without knowing what exactly he was going to do with it).

Could see this as well.  The footnote is included in the letter for a reason imo. I would probably assign this one to item #3.  Clown show operators acting in their own interests.  I suggested a while back that Manaforts actions wrt the polling data could have been driven by his efforts to stave off debtors, positioning himself as a valuable inside influencer in a future Trump administration, rather than an attempt to orchestrate and target election interference. Would still love to see exactly what polling data was shared, and if it could be tied to any deployment of operations by the Russians. I think it unlikely that we get that kind of detailed information at this point though. 

35 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Very generally, I think Mueller has a shitload of evidence of various crimes including largely unrelated financial dealings by Trump and his band of morons, together with a web of circumstantial evidence of conspiracy that might meet a clear and convincing threshold but not the criminal threshold of beyond a reasonable doubt. 

I am in agreement with regard to unrelated crimes in the course of financial dealings and international real estate.  I suggested that that would be the likely result of the investigation a few years ago.  I did not anticipate porn star payouts, however.  Not sure how that one didn't ping the radar. 

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shnsajax

shnsajax 3589

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4 minutes ago, Theo Huxtable said:

Is Trump's next step to now pardon everyone involved? Won't he just say "all these good people were prosecuted during an illegal witch hunt that found no collusion, so they don't deserve to be in jail"?

Since state charges have already been given to not sure there is a point to it. If he pardons without the report being released I think that could backfire on him. 

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Zavala

Zavala 1384

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2 hours ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Watch it the mafia gonna get you. Hugo is off limits for questioning how many socks he puts on each day apparently.  I regularly pout on 2 socks. Not sure what Hugo does...

Funny you mention mafia.

https://vault.fbi.gov/trump-organization/trump-organization-part-01-of-01/view

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1110732170824433664.html

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Judge Roybeanbag

Judge Roybeanbag 11810

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Michael Flynn is still an odd deal that seems like a pretty big loose end.  Judge Sullivan came down pretty hard on him and practically called him a traitor, that he "sold out his country".  I assumed most of that was/is related to his Turkish fiasco?  He still hasn't been sentenced as far as I know, and nothing much has been said of him for quite some time.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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8 minutes ago, Zavala said:

Funny you mention mafia.

https://vault.fbi.gov/trump-organization/trump-organization-part-01-of-01/view

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1110732170824433664.html

Trump a patriot? Lol, this man has never served anything but himself.

Trump an FBI informant in his early days? That’s actually half believable but he wouldn’t have done it for love of country. 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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27 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Dear lord, if “Democrats can’t accept what’s in the Mueller report!” becomes a thing, without anyone even knowing what’s in the fucking report...

Uh, yeah that’s the strategy.  Bully the piss out democrats so they back off their pursuit of “facts and evidence”

Just another example of them weaponizing not giving a fuck because there will be no self reflection or shame when they get egg on their face again.

See also pizzagate, Jade Helm, Nunes memo, Russia interference deniers, Spygate, Uranium One, Seth Rich, Benghazi suckers, whitewater, Mexico will pay for the wall, and fiscal conservatism.  

You’d think they’d stop buying bullshit at some point but nope, they’re double fisting it because those fantasy liberal tears just taste too good. 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

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5 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Trump/GOP’s political success depends on them seeing the Mueller report before the public.  They need to be able to get the talking points and spin down in advance.  

There's zero chance that Barr doesn't show it to Trump on the down low before its released.  Its possible he has even already done so.

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Chad Fuck

Chad Fuck 17566

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2 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

There's zero chance that Barr doesn't show it to Trump on the down low before its released.  Its possible he has even already done so.

Does it matter?

What is accomplished by showing a report to a guy who wants his daily briefings presented in pictures?

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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5 minutes ago, TxTower said:


Just Google “there is undoubtedly collusion” and Adam Schiff. It’s in today’s Washington Post.

Secret meetings, verified by emails, with Russian government representatives to get dirt on the democratic opponent is as colludy as it gets.  

That doesn’t mean a crime was committed by Trump or his people but it meets the collusion threshold, hopefully to anyone not blind. 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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hayden_horn

hayden_horn 11360

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14 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

There's zero chance that Barr doesn't show it to Trump on the down low before its released.  Its possible he has even already done so.

 

10 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

Does it matter?

What is accomplished by showing a report to a guy who wants his daily briefings presented in pictures?

exactly. even if he shows it to trump, trump ain't reading that shit

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26437

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4 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Secret meetings, verified by emails, with Russian government representatives to get dirt on the democratic opponent is as colludy as it gets.  

That doesn’t mean a crime was committed by Trump or his people but it meets the collusion threshold, hopefully to anyone not blind. 

Keep fucking that chicken all the way up until 2020, man.

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elguapo

elguapo 4583

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7 minutes ago, TxTower said:


Just Google “there is undoubtedly collusion” and Adam Schiff. It’s in today’s Washington Post.

Noting he has said contradicts the very narrow summary of findings that Barr has shared, but I wouldn't expect MAGA morons to understand this nuance.

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