The Robert Mueller Investigation

[GW Hayduke 1957]

15 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

Communication of plan and strategy that was going on directly with Kilimnik by Gates and Manafort. 

The meeting below discussed is in May. https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/documents/report_volume5.pdf page 80 of the report, 94 of the PDF:

 "At the meeting, Manafort walked Kilimnik through the internal polling data from Fabrizio in detail.453 According to Gates, Kilimnik wanted to know how Trump could win.454 Manafort explained his strategy in the battleground states and told Kilimnik about polls that identified voter bases in blue-collar, democratic-leaning states which Trump could swing.455 Manafort said these voters could be reached by Trump on issues like economics, but the Campaign needed to implement a ground game.456 Gates recalled that Manafort further discussed the "battleground" states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota.457"

It's pretty clear, to me, he was doing what he was doing in order to inflate his value and try to collect on $10mm in owed debts from Ukrainian oligarchs given he was broke. In my opinion, his goal was not "share info in order to influence the election" although I don't think intent matters much here.  The Trump campaign literally did zero vetting to understand Manafort's significant liability given his financial situation. 

The question is, of course, was Manafort doing this with Trump's knowledge/blessing?  I don't think that was ever answered and as I understand it, within a day or 2 of Trump's first national security briefing in August, Manafort was out.

Guys, it is pretty clear that Trump's campaign manager gave polling data to the russians for his own financial gain and it had nothing to do with helping Trump get elected.  It is just a coincidence that his job title was 'trump campaign manager' tasked with getting Trump elected.  It is also just a coincidence that the russians were running troll farms (likely based on polling data) to get trump elected.

[Anastasis 23699]

Manafort told Gates to share the information with Kilimnik so that he could pass it along to two Ukrainians and to OVD.  The two Ukranians owed Manafort money he had been unable to collection, and he was trying to posture on those invoices.  He owed OVD a shit load and was bogged down in lawsuits over it, trying to inflate his potential future value. These financial relationships were at the middle of the exchange. A political grifters doing grifter things to try to extricate himself from a really bad financial situation with really bad people. Now Manafort should 100% be in prison for the rest of his life, but bootstrapping that poll data (mix of dated public and top line internals) as the lynchpin in the Orange Man's conspiracy with Russia is a stretch, imo.

Or you can just read Mueller's account:

Manafort instructed Rick Gates, his deputy on the Campaign and a longtime employee, to provide Kilimnik with updates on the Trump Campaign—including internal polling data, although Manafort claims not to recall that specific instruction. Manafort expected Kilimnik to share that information with others in Ukraine and with Deripaska. Gates periodically sent such polling data to Kilimnik during the campaign...

The Office could not reliably determine Manafort’s purpose in sharing internal polling data with Kilimnik during the campaign period. Manafort did not see a downside to sharing campaign information, and told Gates that his role in the Campaign would be “good for business” and potentially a way to be made whole for work he previously completed in the Ukraine. As to Deripaska, Manafort claimed that by sharing campaign information with him, Deripaska might see value in their relationship and resolve a “disagreement”—a reference to one or more outstanding lawsuits. Because of questions about Manafort’s credibility and our limited ability to gather evidence on what happened to the polling data after it was sent to Kilimnik, the Office could not assess what Kilimnik (or others he may have given it to) did with it. The Office did not identify evidence of a connection between Manafort’s sharing polling data and Russia’s interference in the election, which had already been reported by U.S. media outlets at the time of the August 2 meeting. The investigation did not establish that Manafort otherwise coordinated with the Russian government on its election-interference efforts. 

    

Edited November 9, 2021 by Anastasis

[Sawbonz 28081]

1 hour ago, GW Hayduke said:

It is also just a coincidence that the russians were running troll farms (likely based on polling data) to get trump elected.

Well, that and feeding the HRC campaign disinformation through a foreign former spy chief at the same time. It’s almost like they wanted to sow chaos in our election. Hard to imagine I know

[GW Hayduke 1957]

21 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Manafort told Gates to share the information with Kilimnik so that he could pass it along to two Ukrainians and to OVD.  The two Ukranians owed Manafort money he had been unable to collection, and he was trying to posture on those invoices.  He owed OVD a shit load and was bogged down in lawsuits over it, trying to inflate his potential future value. These financial relationships were at the middle of the exchange. A political grifters doing grifter things to try to extricate himself from a really bad financial situation with really bad people. Now Manafort should 100% be in prison for the rest of his life, but bootstrapping that poll data (mix of dated public and top line internals) as the lynchpin in the Orange Man's conspiracy with Russia is a stretch, imo.

Or you can just read Mueller's account:

Manafort instructed Rick Gates, his deputy on the Campaign and a longtime employee, to provide Kilimnik with updates on the Trump Campaign—including internal polling data, although Manafort claims not to recall that specific instruction. Manafort expected Kilimnik to share that information with others in Ukraine and with Deripaska. Gates periodically sent such polling data to Kilimnik during the campaign...

The Office could not reliably determine Manafort’s purpose in sharing internal polling data with Kilimnik during the campaign period. Manafort did not see a downside to sharing campaign information, and told Gates that his role in the Campaign would be “good for business” and potentially a way to be made whole for work he previously completed in the Ukraine. As to Deripaska, Manafort claimed that by sharing campaign information with him, Deripaska might see value in their relationship and resolve a “disagreement”—a reference to one or more outstanding lawsuits. Because of questions about Manafort’s credibility and our limited ability to gather evidence on what happened to the polling data after it was sent to Kilimnik, the Office could not assess what Kilimnik (or others he may have given it to) did with it. The Office did not identify evidence of a connection between Manafort’s sharing polling data and Russia’s interference in the election, which had already been reported by U.S. media outlets at the time of the August 2 meeting. The investigation did not establish that Manafort otherwise coordinated with the Russian government on its election-interference efforts. 

    

And Deripaska is a Russian oligarch.  Why would a Russian oligarch place any value on internal Trump campaign polling data in the lead up to a presidential election?  How would it make Manafort “whole?”

This isn’t rocket science.

Mueller wasn’t able to trace the polling data past Kilimnik. But we do know he was a Russian/Ukrainian political consultant and a “Russian intelligence officer”  per the Senate Intelligence Committee’s 2020 report.  We also do know that he was tasked with giving it to Deripaska, the Russian oligarch. 

In order to conclude the motive wasn’t related to helping trump get elected, we have to accept as coincidence that manfort’s job title was ‘trump campaign manager,’ that it was a coincidence he happened to give it to a Russian intelligence officer while Russia was coincidentally running troll farms to get trump elected, and that a Russian oligarch would value polling data on US citizens in the lead up to a presidential election for reasons unrelated to that election.

I hear Russian oligarchs often use US citizen polling data to boost their hits on tiktok.

I also hear Manafort often gives US citizen polling data out randomly as payment. It always befuddles Jane at the juice bar

[Guest Lobo]

It's curious to me that the Russians would "back" a Trump presidency.  And help manipulate the campaign/elections through unethical means.  Because a Trump Presidency was bad for Russia.  Trump is way too strong a leader, it intimidated Russia and Putin.  Trump is the ultimate Alpha Male, unable to be tamed by any exterior forces.  Why would Russia support such a candidate, a bold and strong visionary that would be impossible to manipulate?  Makes zero sense.  

Trump just exudes leadership and boldness while Putin gives off a beta cuck sense of uncertainty.  

[Anastasis 23699]

6 minutes ago, GW Hayduke said:

And Deripaska is a Russian oligarch.  Why would a Russian oligarch place any value on internal Trump campaign polling data in the lead up to a presidential election?  How would it make Manafort “whole?”

This isn’t rocket science.

The "made whole" component of Mueller's text related to the money he was owed by the Ukranians.  The potential motivation wrt Manafort is described in the following sentence:

As to Deripaska, Manafort claimed that by sharing campaign information with him, Deripaska might see value in their relationship and resolve a “disagreement”—a reference to one or more outstanding lawsuits.

 

Here is how the NYT described the context when it came to light in 2019:

Mr. Manafort asked Mr. Gates to tell Mr. Kilimnik to pass the data to two Ukrainian oligarchs, Serhiy Lyovochkin and Rinat Akhmetov, the person said. The oligarchs had financed Russian-aligned Ukrainian political parties that had hired Mr. Manafort as a political consultant.

A representative for Mr. Akhmetov said he did not request or receive any data from Mr. Kilimnik and has had no contact with either Mr. Kilimnik or Mr. Manafort since before the 2016 presidential campaign. Mr. Lyovochkin did not respond to a request for comment.

Why Mr. Manafort wanted them to see American polling data is unclear. He might have hoped that any proof that he was managing a winning candidate would help him collect money he claimed to be owed for his work on behalf of the Ukrainian parties.

About the same time, Mr. Manafort was also trying to curry favor with Oleg V. Deripaska, a Russian billionaire close to the Kremlin and an associate of Mr. Kilimnik. In July 2016, Mr. Manafort, then the Trump campaign chairman, told Mr. Kilimnik that he could offer Mr. Deripaska “private briefings,” according to emails reported by The Washington Post. Mr. Deripaska had claimed Mr. Manafort owed him millions from a failed business venture, and Mr. Manafort may have been trying to use his status in the campaign to hold him at bay.

 

If the polling data was the lynchpin of the conspiracy, maybe some knowledge of what was actually contained in the information that was shared is further enlightening (from SIC).

Additionally, according to Gates, Manafort instructed Gates to begin sending Kilimnik certain Trump Campaign polling data and other Campaign updates as a result of this meeting between Manafort and Kilimnik.388 Gates further stated that he periodically sent the data via WhatsApp, an encrypted messaging application, and del~ted the messages to Kilimnik daily.389 Gates described the data as "topline" data, which included the results of internal polling including state, dates, generic, decided. GOP, and other such numbers. Gates said that this was a copy and paste from summary sheets provided by Trump Campaign pollster and longtime Manafort associate Anthony Fabrizio.390 Gates recalled that it was not the entire raw data set, nor was it cross tabs. 391

If the intent was to provide detailed information to Russia to influence the outcome of the election, seems like they would be sharing their raw data or at least minimally analyzed data rather than mix of public data and internal top line data. Either way, Manafort should be rotting in a jail cell. But this particular exchange, the indications of intent and motivation behind it and the nature of the data being shared (vs. what was not shared), doesn't scream Orange Man-Russia Conspiracy to influence the election by sharing targeting information with troll farms. The more straightforward fitting of the data points seems to me to be that Manafort was a political grifter in a really tight financial spot, had attached himself to the Trump campaign (has there ever been an in depth analysis of Barracks angle there?), and was trying to grift his way out of a bad spot with bad people by influence peddling. Like I said, he should be rotting in jail.   

[wildcat09 29556]

11 hours ago, Sawbonz said:

Is it common to hire (former) foreign spy chiefs to gather the disinformation from a third country hostile to the US’s interests? This is the first I’ve ever seen 

When the dossier first became public knowledge, npr had the former Moscow cia station chief on and asked him about the veracity/reliability of the dossier. He said that there would be some true info and some planted falsehoods, mixed so you would not know which was which. He also said all info given to Steele was likely vetted by the Kremlin. He also said Steele would have known this to be the case when he compiled the info. 
 

Do you honestly believe the parties paying for this info would not be aware of that? Do you honestly believe that HRC and the highest levels of her campaign were unaware of what was happening?

 

 

Retired intelligence officers are unfortunately becoming increasingly common actors in the political sphere. An unfortunate side effect of the expansion of intelligence activities during the war on terror. Hell, the Trump administration hired ex-Mossad guys to spy on Americans. As to the information being from a third country hostile to the US interests, well, that's where Trump was doing business. Trump wasn't doing a lot of business in the developed world, he was doing it in places like Russia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan. If you wanted to look into his shady business dealings, you'd be encountering info from shady people in shady places.

 

[wildcat09 29556]

26 minutes ago, GW Hayduke said:

And Deripaska is a Russian oligarch.  Why would a Russian oligarch place any value on internal Trump campaign polling data in the lead up to a presidential election?  How would it make Manafort “whole?”

This isn’t rocket science.

Mueller wasn’t able to trace the polling data past Kilimnik. But we do know he was a Russian/Ukrainian political consultant and a “Russian intelligence officer”  per the Senate Intelligence Committee’s 2020 report.  We also do know that he was tasked with giving it to Deripaska, the Russian oligarch. 

In order to conclude the motive wasn’t related to helping trump get elected, we have to accept as coincidence that manfort’s job title was ‘trump campaign manager,’ that it was a coincidence he happened to give it to a Russian intelligence officer while Russia was coincidentally running troll farms to get trump elected, and that a Russian oligarch would value polling data on US citizens in the lead up to a presidential election for reasons unrelated to that election.

I hear Russian oligarchs often use US citizen polling data to boost their hits on tiktok.

I also hear Manafort often gives US citizen polling data out randomly as payment. It always befuddles Jane at the juice bar

[GW Hayduke 1957]

5 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

If the polling data was the lynchpin of the conspiracy, maybe some knowledge of what was actually contained in the information that was shared is further enlightening (from SIC).

The polling data doesn’t need to be lynchpin in anything.  But we do know the 2020 senate intelligence committee report on page 70 that the data was encrypted when transferred and deleted daily.  Page 78 notes that the polling data was “significant to the Trump Campaign and was relied upon by the Campaign’s data operation.” It goes on to state that the campaign used the polling data to allocate 98% of their resources.  Page 80 they describe how Manafort described campaign strategy in battleground states with the Russian intelligence officer.  That is the part Jane at the juice bar really has a hard time with

[Sawbonz 28081]

31 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Retired intelligence officers are unfortunately becoming increasingly common actors in the political sphere. An unfortunate side effect of the expansion of intelligence activities during the war on terror. Hell, the Trump administration hired ex-Mossad guys to spy on Americans. As to the information being from a third country hostile to the US interests, well, that's where Trump was doing business. Trump wasn't doing a lot of business in the developed world, he was doing it in places like Russia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan. If you wanted to look into his shady business dealings, you'd be encountering info from shady people in shady places.

 

Sure. But those are just rationalizations. Bottom line is

 

HRC —>Campaign—->PerkinsCoie—>consultant—->Steele(foreigner)—>Russian nationals—->Kremlin 

 

Trump—>campaign(manafort)—->Kilimnik(foreigner)—>Russian nationals—>Kremlin 

election laws are supposed to prevent this shit and obviously do not

[wildcat09 29556]

The difference is that HRC wasn’t actually trying to get help from Vladimir Putin (they despise each other) and anyone who thinks she was should be committed to a mental institution for their own safety.

[Neonmoon 38130]

5 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

The difference is that HRC wasn’t actually trying to get help from Vladimir Putin 

This is the difference. It's a big difference, not small like many are trying to make it. 

But in the world of teams, no one gives a shit anymore. Go team

[jimmyjazz 46972]

I don't give a damn if HRC and her campaign are investigated for their actions vis a vis Russian intelligence, etc., except for the fact that Mueller passed on damning evidence against Trump, so the precedent has been set.

[Sawbonz 28081]

59 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

The difference is that HRC wasn’t actually trying to get help from Vladimir Putin (they despise each other) and anyone who thinks she was should be committed to a mental institution for their own safety.

I mean she literally got help from the Kremlin. Are you saying she didn’t want that help? Or are you saying that the fact that she wanted the help but not specifically from Putin changes in any way the legality of what she err her campaign’s law firm’s consultant did?

[wildcat09 29556]

Yes, I'm saying she didn't want help from the Kremlin. Jesus fucking christ, what is it with you people and Hillary? She's not a criminal mastermind. She hasn't had a bunch of people killed. She's just a lame centrist with a fairly average intellect whose campaign hired people to conduct opposition research, just like every other political campaign in the past probably hundred years if not longer. She "got help" from Russia, as you disingenuously characterize it, because her opponent was doing dirty business in Russia and anyone conducting any investigation into that business was going to end up getting some questionable information from sources tied to the Kremlin. That's not remotely similar in character to the actual help that Trump actively solicited and received. 

[Sawbonz 28081]

9 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

She "got help" from Russia, as you disingenuously characterize it, because her opponent was doing dirty business in Russia and anyone conducting any investigation into that business was going to end up getting some questionable information from sources tied to the Kremlin.

She knew, or should have known if you believe the candidate is the captain of the ship, that any information sourced from current or former Russian government officials or business leaders would be vetted through and blessed by the Kremlin, which in fact was the case. If you are arguing she was too incompetent to know this was going on, I just don’t buy it

 

edit if you’re saying her advisers told her she needed dirt on Trump from Russia and she told him to get it but I don’t wanna know how or where from, I would buy that

Edited November 9, 2021 by Sawbonz

[wildcat09 29556]

2 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

She knew, or should have known if you believe the candidate is the captain of the ship, that any information sourced from current or former Russian government officials or business leaders would be vetted through and blessed by the Kremlin, which in fact was the case. If you are arguing she was too incompetent to know this was going on, I just don’t buy it

 

edit if you’re saying her advisers told her she needed dirt on Trump from Russia and she told him to get it but I don’t wanna know how or where from, I would buy that

There's also that whole thing where the dossier was quietly turned over to the FBI for further investigation rather than publicly released and used for campaign purposes before the election.

[babysdaddy 2731]

9 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

There's also that whole thing where the dossier was quietly turned over to the FBI for further investigation rather than publicly released and used for campaign purposes before the election.

[wildcat09 29556]

6 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

Are you from an alternate universe where Hillary’s campaign publicly released the Steele dossier before the election?

[Sawbonz 28081]

21 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

There's also that whole thing where the dossier was quietly turned over to the FBI for further investigation rather than publicly released and used for campaign purposes before the election.

I thought it was leaked prior to the election? If not, that seems like a huge mistake on the Clinton campaign’s part

[Incredulity 11861]

By October 2016, Steele had compiled 33 pages (16 reports), and he then passed on what he had discovered to David Corn, a reporter from Mother Jones magazine. On October 31, 2016, a week before the election, Mother Jones reported that a former intelligence officer, whom they did not name, had produced a report based on Russian sources and turned it over to the FBI.^[82] The article disclosed some of the dossier's allegations:

The first memo, based on the former intelligence officer's conversations with Russian sources, noted, "Russian regime has been cultivating, supporting and assisting TRUMP for at least 5 years. Aim, endorsed by PUTIN, has been to encourage splits and divisions in western alliance." It maintained that Trump "and his inner circle have accepted a regular flow of intelligence from the Kremlin, including on his Democratic and other political rivals". It claimed Russian intelligence had "compromised" Trump during his visits to Moscow and could "blackmail him". It also reported that Russian intelligence had compiled a dossier on Hillary Clinton based on "bugged conversations she had on various visits to Russia and intercepted phone calls."

— David Corn, "A Veteran Spy Has Given the FBI Information Alleging a Russian Operation to Cultivate Donald Trump", Mother Jones (October 31, 2016)^[82]

[babysdaddy 2731]

1 hour ago, wildcat09 said:

Are you from an alternate universe where Hillary’s campaign publicly released the Steele dossier before the election?

oh, you're being a pedant, got it.  

[Anastasis 23699]

2 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

There's also that whole thing where the dossier was quietly turned over to the FBI for further investigation rather than publicly released and used for campaign purposes before the election.

LOL.  

Steele and Simpson were shopping that shit all over town.  Steele was desperate to get into into the public space to influence the election, and readily admitted as such.  He knew it was total garbage, but he had his own personal bias and his tasking. They shopped both the Dossier and the alfa bank conspiracy to the FBI, contacts at the State Department, and the multiple media contacts. Hillary was fucking tweeting about the alfa conspiracy for christsake. We know how the whole FBI thing went with the dossier.  Shit really went to 11 after the election of course, when FBI officials were trying to get into into the main body of the ICA (it got relegated to the Appendix cause Brennan probably knew it was total horseshit), and then Comey briefed it to Trump, which gave cover for Buzzfeed and CNN to make it public, triggering a deep rooting of the brain worms. All total horseshit, all originating from the web of DNC contractors and lawyers at PC with very clear intentions.  

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-s-intel-officials-probe-ties-between-trump-adviser-and-kremlin-175046002.html

U.S. intel officials probe ties between Trump adviser and Kremlin

Michael Isikoff

September 23, 2016

 

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/10/veteran-spy-gave-fbi-info-alleging-russian-operation-cultivate-donald-trump/

A Veteran Spy Has Given the FBI Information Alleging a Russian Operation to Cultivate Donald Trump

David Corn

OCTOBER 31, 2016

 

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/cover_story/2016/10/was_a_server_registered_to_the_trump_organization_communicating_with_russia.html

Was a Trump Server Communicating With Russia?

OCT. 31 2016 5:36 PM

Franklin Foer

 

 

Edited November 9, 2021 by Anastasis

[Anastasis 23699]

1 hour ago, Sawbonz said:

I thought it was leaked prior to the election? If not, that seems like a huge mistake on the Clinton campaign’s part

No, no, no you see. It was just quietly turned over the FBI by patriotic political operatives under no sort of false pretenses. How dare you suggest otherwise. 

Edited November 9, 2021 by Anastasis

[Anastasis 23699]

30 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

oh, you're being a pedant dishonest, got it.  

 

[Sawbonz 28081]

Bottom line Putin plays chess, our POLITICOs play chutes and ladders

[wildcat09 29556]

Ana’s theory of the case continues to be so laughably stupid that Bill Barr didn’t even consider pursuing it.

[Neonmoon 38130]

1 hour ago, Sawbonz said:

Bottom line Putin plays chess, our POLITICOs play chutes and ladders

More like Hungry Hungry Hippo

[Anastasis 23699]

1 hour ago, wildcat09 said:

Ana’s theory of the case continues to be so laughably stupid that Bill Barr didn’t even consider pursuing it.

Everything substantive in that post can be supported directly by citable primary data sources (OIG, SIC, congressional testimony, FBI 302s, FOIA releases, etc.). 

 

 

[Anastasis 23699]

 

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

5 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

 

Clearance sale. 
 

There’s a toy store in New Braunfels that has the same brand of toys, but Liz Warren, Bernie, Fauci etc. 

[Neonmoon 38130]

Does it have a kung fu grip?

[Longhorn_Fan68 34079]

24 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Does it have a kung flu grip?

fify

[Fudge Nuggets 19407]

White people will buy the dumbest shit.

[4doorsMoreWhores 107]

Yeah, like $30 million goose chases 

[Biff Tannen 46061]

Nope. Not gonna touch that.  You're just an idiot.

[jimmyjazz 46972]

32 minutes ago, 4doorsMoreWhores said:

Yeah, like $30 million goose chases 

You're OK with a profit, though, right?

[Anastasis 23699]

2 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Does it have a kung fu grip?

Many, furiously. 

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13619]

Tucker needs to know if it has a cock.

[JimmyJames 12271]

I got nothing.

[Anastasis 23699]

3 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

I got nothing.

If you had any common sense you would clown on @wildcat09

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13619]

36 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

If you had any common sense you would clown on @wildcat09

Lol.

[Sawbonz 28081]

8 hours ago, Anastasis said:

 

[JimmyJames 12271]

11 hours ago, Anastasis said:

If you had any common sense you would clown on @wildcat09

Yeah but I don’t so the point is moot.

[DDD Dad 14571]

 

 

 

[Longhorn_Fan68 34079]

24 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

 

 

 

[TwiceHorn 31987]

As usual, that's kind of a clickbaity tweet.

It's not a "new version."  It's the same old report with a few redactions removed.

Apparently, they would have been misdemeanor charges with some pretty fair defenses, so legit not worth bringing.

[Anastasis 23699]

28 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

Probably because Mueller had no idea where he was half the time. 

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

 

[TwiceHorn 31987]

Well, if Josh Hawley is crowing about it, it must be true!