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2022 Senate Elections

Ghost of LL

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15531

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Things are getting boring with the 2020 Senate Elections.  So let's get this one started.  Here's the list of who is up in 2022:

State
(linked to
summaries below) 		Incumbent Results Candidates
Senator Party Electoral history Last race
Alabama Richard Shelby Republican 1986
1992
1998
2004
2010
2016 		64.0% R Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • TBD
Alaska Lisa Murkowski Republican 2002 (Appointed)
2004
2010
2016 		44.4% R Incumbent running.
Arizona TBD TBD 2020 (Special) TBD Incumbent to be determined in the 2020 special election.
  • TBD
Arkansas John Boozman Republican 2010
2016 		59.8% R Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • TBD
California Kamala Harris Democratic 2016 61.6% D[a] Incumbent's intent unknown, Harris is currently the 2020 Democratic nominee for Vice President of the United States.
  • Akinyemi Agbede (Democratic)[3]
Colorado Michael Bennet Democratic 2009 (Appointed)
2010
2016 		50.0% D Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • TBD
Connecticut Richard Blumenthal Democratic 2010
2016 		63.2% D Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • TBD
Florida Marco Rubio Republican 2010
2016 		52.0% R Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • TBD
Georgia TBD TBD 2020 (Special) TBD Incumbent to be determined in the 2020 special election.
  • TBD
Hawaii Brian Schatz Democratic 2012 (Appointed)
2014 (Special)
2016 		73.6% D Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • TBD
Idaho Mike Crapo Republican 1998
2004
2010
2016 		66.1% R Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • TBD
Illinois Tammy Duckworth Democratic 2016 54.9% D Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • TBD
Indiana Todd Young Republican 2016 52.1% R Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • TBD
Iowa Chuck Grassley Republican 1980
1986
1992
1998
2004
2010
2016 		60.1% R Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • TBD
Kansas Jerry Moran Republican 2010
2016 		62.2% R Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • TBD
Kentucky Rand Paul Republican 2010
2016 		57.3% R Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • TBD
Louisiana John Neely Kennedy Republican 2016 60.6% R Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • TBD
Maryland Chris Van Hollen Democratic 2016 60.9% D Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • TBD
Missouri Roy Blunt Republican 2010
2016 		49.2% R Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • TBD
Nevada Catherine Cortez Masto Democratic 2016 47.1% D Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • TBD
New Hampshire Maggie Hassan Democratic 2016 48.0% D Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • TBD
New York Chuck Schumer Democratic 1998
2004
2010
2016 		70.6% D Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • Khaled Salem (Democratic)[4]
North Carolina Richard Burr Republican 2004
2010
2016 		51.1% R Incumbent retiring.[5]
  • Lee Brian (Republican)
North Dakota John Hoeven Republican 2010
2016 		78.5% R Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • TBD
Ohio Rob Portman Republican 2010
2016 		58.0% R Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • Mark Pukita (Republican)[6]
Oklahoma James Lankford Republican 2014 (Special)
2016 		67.7% R Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • TBD
Oregon Ron Wyden Democratic 1996 (Special)
1998
2004
2010
2016 		56.6% D Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • TBD
Pennsylvania Pat Toomey Republican 2010
2016 		48.8% R Incumbent retiring.[7]
  • TBD
South Carolina Tim Scott Republican 2013 (Appointed)
2014 (Special)
2016 		60.6% R Incumbent running.
South Dakota John Thune Republican 2004
2010
2016 		71.8% R Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • TBD
Utah Mike Lee Republican 2010
2016 		68.2% R Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • TBD
Vermont Patrick Leahy Democratic 1974
1980
1986
1992
1998
2004
2010
2016 		61.3% D Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • TBD
Washington Patty Murray Democratic 1992
1998
2004
2010
2016 		59.0% D Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • TBD
Wisconsin Ron Johnson Republican 2010
2016 		50.2% R Incumbent's intent unknown.[9]

 

Broadly speaking, the party in power is not going to have an easy time in a midterm.  And right now, there's a 87% chance that the Democratic Party is going to be the party in power.  But right now, I don't see a lot of possible Dem losses.  The most vulnerable will definitely be Hassan in New Hampshire and Masto in Nevada.  But that's about it.

The Republicans are going to have to defend open seats in Pennsylvania and North Carolina--good luck with that.  And they're probably going to have to defend an open seat in Iowa, because I can't imagine Chuck Grassley is going to run for reelection.  Beyond that, I don't think I'd be too enthusiastic about Rob Johnson's chances in Wisconsin.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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the House will tilt back a little more moderate with Biden in the White House in 2022. Democrats will still control but they'll lose the large majority they'll gain in 2020.  The Senate, however will become a GOP bloodbath with Class III.  The good news for former Republicans is the party will finally ditch the functionally retarded Trump base after the 2022 midterms and get back to coalescing around a proper, conservative, Buckley-esque platform that ditches the worship of the False Messiah in the name of proper governance.  

But yes to this point of GLL, I think 2020 Senate is probably 50-48-2 (D) and that's fine.  But the Republican Party is going to defy history and get absolutely destroyed in the Senate in 2022.  Just look at the Class III slate.  It'll end up something like 54-44-2.  Plus McConnell will end up dead or retiring his seat mid-term. 

 

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 25944

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California will be interesting, assuming Harris is Veep. 

Will Newsom appoint a placeholder, or will he appoint a Ted Lieu/Adam Schiff/Katie Porter type who will ultimately have the incumbent's advantage when running for re-election?   

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11669

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6 minutes ago, Lobo said:

the House will tilt back a little more moderate with Biden in the White House in 2022. Democrats will still control but they'll lose the large majority they'll gain in 2020.  The Senate, however will become a GOP bloodbath with Class III.  The good news for former Republicans is the party will finally ditch the functionally retarded Trump base after the 2022 midterms and get back to coalescing around a proper, conservative, Buckley-esque platform that ditches the worship of the False Messiah in the name of proper governance.  

But yes to this point of GLL, I think 2020 Senate is probably 50-48-2 (D) and that's fine.  But the Republican Party is going to defy history and get absolutely destroyed in the Senate in 2022.  Just look at the Class III slate.  It'll end up something like 54-44-2.  Plus McConnell will end up dead or retiring his seat mid-term. 

 

they'll come up with some tea party 2.0 nonsense to rally around.  they'll be fine.

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Pasken

Pasken 1309

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1 minute ago, Helobious said:

Will be a Little Big Horn-level bloodbath for whoever wins this year. Things are not going to be awesome economically in 2021 and the party in power will shoulder the blame. 

The trail of endless corruption that will come out starting after the election will keep the trash of this party out in the open for the next 2 years.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Like those two years from 2009-2011 when Democrats controlled the Senate, House, and Presidency plus about as "even" a SCOTUS as we're likely to see in a generation?  Remind me again what they did besides raise my health insurance costs and lower my coverage?  Let's get Trump out, then let's burn both parties to the fucking ground and shit on their corpses.  

We the people deserve our revenge, and those politicians...deserve to die.  

 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15531

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Just now, Lobo said:

Like those two years from 2009-2011 when Democrats controlled the Senate, House, and Presidency plus about as "even" a SCOTUS as we're likely to see in a generation?  Remind me again what they did besides raise my health insurance costs and lower my coverage?  Let's get Trump out, then let's burn both parties to the fucking ground and shit on their corpses.  

We the people deserve our revenge, and those politicians...deserve to die.  

 

Well, for one thing they did a pretty enormous stimulus package that started the recovery from the Great Recession.  They gave a bailout to the auto industry that saved Ford and General Motors.  And I think a significant majority of Americans would today disagree with your assessment of the ACA.

But you're right.  If the Democrats want to go bold--and their electoral chances rest on them taking audacious action--then they have to get rid of the filibuster.  That's what prevented them from taking more action to help the American economy out of the Great Recession in 2009-11.

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swraith

swraith 346

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No prediction on the long term impacts of getting rid of the filibuster.  But 2022 will be really bad for Democrats if they don't get rid of it and end up sitting on their hands for 2 years.  

 

Saying you want to burn both parties to the ground is fine.  But why wait? You could be working towards that end today. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19069

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44 minutes ago, Lobo said:

the House will tilt back a little more moderate with Biden in the White House in 2022. Democrats will still control but they'll lose the large majority they'll gain in 2020.  The Senate, however will become a GOP bloodbath with Class III.  The good news for former Republicans is the party will finally ditch the functionally retarded Trump base after the 2022 midterms and get back to coalescing around a proper, conservative, Buckley-esque platform that ditches the worship of the False Messiah in the name of proper governance.  

But yes to this point of GLL, I think 2020 Senate is probably 50-48-2 (D) and that's fine.  But the Republican Party is going to defy history and get absolutely destroyed in the Senate in 2022.  Just look at the Class III slate.  It'll end up something like 54-44-2.  Plus McConnell will end up dead or retiring his seat mid-term. 

 

It’s not really defying history it’s the mirror image of 2018- when the gop got trounced at the box and picked up 2 seats on the senate anyway because the map was a dream come true. This is the inverse. A big wave for the GOP slows them to keep WI, PA and NC maybe. They aren’t going on offense anywhere. 
 

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Doc Sam Beckett

Doc Sam Beckett 5792

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47 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

California will be interesting, assuming Harris is Veep. 

Will Newsom appoint a placeholder, or will he appoint a Ted Lieu/Adam Schiff/Katie Porter type who will ultimately have the incumbent's advantage when running for re-election?   

Hopefully he appoints Porter.....I'll settle for Schiff though, and the other one can take Feinstein's seat after we send her to hell 

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RayDog

RayDog 682

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I think Trumpism will still be on the ballot in 2022, since Trump won't stop tweeting and Trumpist candidates will run in big races. Trump may even keep doing rallies for the attention. 2022 will not be the usual midterm. A Trumpist or even a Trump family member could run for the New York Senate, for example, keeping the NYC media talking about Trumpism endlessly.

In addition to retirements in NC, PA and IA for the Republicans and probably Leahy and on the Democratic side. Murkowski is likely to get primaried making Alaska an essentially open seat. Wisconsin will be tough whether Johnson retires or not. 

Rubio will likely face a tough race in Florida, and could have a Trumpist primary challenger. If the Republicans win Georgia, that will be a tough race too. If Abrams runs for Governor again at the top of the state ticket that could be quite a race for both Governor and Senate.

Ohio could have a close race with the right Democratic candidate. Missouri was within 3% in 2016 in a Republican wave year, so again the right candidate could make it a race. Young only had 52% of the vote in Indiana last time, and there are rumors that Buttigieg could run there if he does not get a role in the Biden administration.. 

I expect Rand Paul will get a primary challenge, which will add to the money drain. And there might be a vote on McConnell's replacement, if he does not make it.

2022 is going to be tough on the Republicans. We may even add Puerto Rico into the mix by then.

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Js1

Js1 85311

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2022 Senate Races, post-2020 election.  

34 seats are up - 14 Democrats, 20 Republicans but also 3 (Democrats) finishing up short 2 year terms and running for full 6 year terms this time around.

There's like 15 R seats that aren't serious targets and 10 D seats that aren't serious targets.  So let's discuss the 9 actual seats that should be key to 2023 Senate control. 

REAL RACES:

  • ARIZONA - Mark Kelly (56/currently finishing John McCain's 2016 term) - this is seen as one of the big GOP targets to take back this seat.  Current Governor Doug Ducey is term-limited, so he is likely going to run for this seat. tossup/tilt D because AZ has now voted for 3 straight Democrats to federal office (Senate/POTUS/Senate)
  • FLORIDA - Marco Rubio (49/currently in 2nd term) - this one will be interesting to watch.  Does he get primaried by a Matt Gaetz/Ivanka Trump? Who do the Democrats run - someone to juice black turnout like Val Demings, someone with a big Florida last name like Gwen Graham, or someone whose background can blunt the SOCIALISMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM talks like Stephanie Murphy (born in Vietnam)? lean R for now
  • GEORGIA - Rafael Warnock (51/pending swearing in for finishing Johnny Isakson's term) - The second of the 2-year Senators.  Democrats elected their first Democrat to the Senate in decades and he will likely be running alongside Stacey Abrams.  There's expected to be some pretty nasty infighting with the Georgia GOP (Kemp will likely lose his primary for governor), so does a Doug Collins or Marjorie Taylor-Greene end up facing Warnock? tossup/tilt D because of ATL and just having voted for 3 Democrats to federal office (POTUS/Ossoff/Warnock) and a combo of Warnock/Abrams on the same ticket is going to JUICE black turnout
  • IOWA - Chuck Grassley (87/currently in seventh term) - this man is barely there, we think he's going to run for another 6 year term? he said himself a year ago he does not want to be another Byrd or Thurmond where he has to be assisted 24/7 during his duties and barely knows what he's doing and can't even enjoy the last few years of his life.  He's been grooming his grandson to take over.  I put Iowa on this list because Democrats did pretty well in this state (winning 3 of 4 House races) in 2018 with no Trump on the ballot.  Current U.S. Rep Cindy Axne, former Rep. Abby Finkenauer or current State Auditor Rob Sands would be strong contenders. lean R but could go tilt/tossup in the right environment (safe R if Grassley runs again, but I have my doubts)
  • NEVADA - Catherine Cortez Masto (56/currently in first term) - Nevada is swingy, but the only year it sent a Republican to the Senate in the last decade was 2012 and he only won by 1.2% against a bad candidate.  The Reid Machine is still strong here.  Unless former R governor Brian Sandoval leaves the UNR presidency, I don't see anyone running who isn't batshit fucking crazy. lean D
  • NEW HAMPSHIRE - Maggie Hassan (62/currently in first term) - Maggie won the closet 2016 Senate election by just over 100 votes.  A popular former governor, her biggest electoral pain would be current Governor Chris Sununu, who keeps winning as an R by big margins in fucking NH, running for this office. lean D until intentions are known, tossup if Sununu runs
  • NORTH CAROLINA - OPEN SEAT - Incumbent Burr is retiring, so this will be an open seat.  Also a potential Lara Trump run, in addition to some very conservative House Republicans and former piece of shit Governor Pat McCrory, who lost the governorship the same year Trump won the state in 2016.  The strongest candidate is probably either current state senator Jeff Jackson or current AG Josh Stein.  NC has eluded Democrats in 2016 and 2020 because the Republicans haven't fully maxed out their voters in the conservative, rural western part of the state. true tossup
  • PENNSYLVANIA - OPEN SEAT - Incumbent Pat Toomey is retiring, so another open seat. Biggest possible names are LG Fetterman and US Reps Boyle, Houlahan and Lamb.  Think Fetterman may clear this field. No really big names on the Republican side - some current US Reps, state names, etc.  true tossup
  • WISCONSIN - Ron Johnson (65/serving second term) - there's still a lot of unknown if he's even running again.  US Rep Mark Pocan (D) and Ron Kind (D) have already bowed out, so the favorites on the D side are likely Tom Nelson, Outagamie County Executive and 2010 LG nominee; Mandela Barnes, current LG; Josh Kaul, current AG. Scott Walker (*spit*) has said no to running. true tossup

Not included in the above would be some wildcards, such as:

  • A California 2022 special election to fill Feinstein's seat if she retires early - safe D
  • Two 2022 special elections for D.C. (come on motherfuckers, do it) - safe D x 2
  • Two 2022 special elections for Puerto Rico - tossup x 2 (PR is fucking weird)
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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4621

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If things go well in the country (no more crises or disasters) and the Dems don't get crazy, 2022 will be a bloodbath for the GOP.  Time will not serve anyone who aligned with Trump well.  There is a TON of pent up consumer demand that should be superfuel to the 2021-2023 economy.  And that will be added to what should be a monster stimulus package later this year.  So assuming things go well, the issue of economic health will heavily favor the Democrats.  In that scenario I don't see Kelly, Masto, Hassan, or Warnock being vulnerable.  But even in that situation I don't think Iowa or Wisconsin will be in play either; both will go red.

The Florida primary will hurt Rubio who has the Trump stain on him and will likely be primaried by at least one Trump acolyte and one anti-Trump GOP candidate, so if Florida runs a good moderate candidate they can win.

Fetterman is on a trajectory to easily win that PA spot.

North Carolina is wide open but I don't see a good Dem candidate yet.

So for now, I would guess that the Dems will pick up 2 seats with 2 others being toss-ups.  Of course, giving DC and PR senators, which I hope happens, would tilt things very heavily.  But I wouldn't expect that since Democrats recent history points to them gunning for "unity" and "healing", which means pussing out and not punishing the fascists.

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Js1

Js1 85311

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2 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

If things go well in the country (no more crises or disasters) and the Dems don't get crazy, 2022 will be a bloodbath for the GOP.  Time will not serve anyone who aligned with Trump well.  There is a TON of pent up consumer demand that should be superfuel to the 2021-2023 economy.  And that will be added to what should be a monster stimulus package later this year.  So assuming things go well, the issue of economic health will heavily favor the Democrats.  In that scenario I don't see Kelly, Masto, Hassan, or Warnock being vulnerable.  But even in that situation I don't think Iowa or Wisconsin will be in play either; both will go red.

The Florida primary will hurt Rubio who has the Trump stain on him and will likely be primaried by at least one Trump acolyte and one anti-Trump GOP candidate, so if Florida runs a good moderate candidate they can win.

Fetterman is on a trajectory to easily win that PA spot.

North Carolina is wide open but I don't see a good Dem candidate yet.

So for now, I would guess that the Dems will pick up 2 seats with 2 others being toss-ups.  Of course, giving DC and PR senators, which I hope happens, would tilt things very heavily.  But I wouldn't expect that since Democrats recent history points to them gunning for "unity" and "healing", which means pussing out and not punishing the fascists.

Why do you think Wisconsin goes red?

It elected a Democratic governor in 2018.  It gave Tammy Baldwin a huge win in 2018.  It flipped to Biden in 2020. 

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4621

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A 58D-46R Senate from 2023-2024 would be interesting.  Universal healthcare, free college, free childcare, massive climate legislation, and dramatic increases in unemployment and social security benefits would all be likely, as would income tax increases for rich folks.  What's interesting to me is that even in that extreme outcome, I don't think we'd see the kinds of things Trumpkins fear.  There would be no mandatory gun buy-backs (would stop with assault weapon bans and more extensive background checks), there would be no massive tax increases on corporations or the middle class, nor would there be a wealth tax (spending would be deficit, tax increases would be largely limited to super wealthy individuals).  There probably wouldn't even be meaningful restrictions on free speech or the internet.  I don't even think they'd ban fracking.

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Js1

Js1 85311

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Posted (edited)

Rob Portman is now #3 on the "fuck it, I'm not running" in 2022 - along with (so far) Richard Burr and Pat Toomey.

There's now a situation where we would have open races in PA, OH, NC, WI, and IA if Johnson and Grassley call it quits too. 

And it exists the possibility - freshman Senator Jim Jordan. 🤢

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Js1

Js1 85311

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Here is Ohio in the last 3 races - don't call it a lost cause, the right candidate can win.

  • 2016 - Trump 51.69 / Clinton 43.56
  • 2018 (no Trump on the ballot) - DeWine 50.4 / Cordray 46.7 (U.S. House - R 52 / D 47.27) 
  • 2020 - Trump 53.27 / Biden 45.24

Without Trump, Democrats cut into the R lead by 5 points.  A similar midterm environment in 2022 would give you a real race (in an open seat). 

LeBron ready to come home and go into politics yet?  There's a couple rumored candidates on the D side - the mayors of Cincinnati and Dayton, U.S. Rep Tim Ryan, who represents a chunk of NE part of the state bordering PA and may be a good candidate to speak to the blue collar workers in the state (plus getting the natural D consistencies of Cleveland/Cincinnati and the growing suburban R voters) 

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Js1

Js1 85311

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

There has to be a dem that could beat Jordan in an Ohio Senate race. 

Tim Ryan - he declined to run against Portman, but an open seat is a much different calculation, and also redistricting might kill him

Nan Whaley gets talked about a lot as a potential rising star (mayor of Dayton)

Please, Nina Turner, sit this one out. 

Also, I have the same idea for Ohio as I have for Wisconsin - run Sherrod Brown in '22 and give him 2 votes if he wins.  Same for Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin.  

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13050

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8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Tim Ryan - he declined to run against Portman, but an open seat is a much different calculation, and also redistricting might kill him

Nan Whaley gets talked about a lot as a potential rising star (mayor of Dayton)

Please, Nina Turner, sit this one out. 

Also, I have the same idea for Ohio as I have for Wisconsin - run Sherrod Brown in '22 and give him 2 votes if he wins.  Same for Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin.  

Why not Richard Cordray? He got a decent enough amount of votes against DeWine didn't he? Has some consumer protection skills. Run on an anti-corruption platform?

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Js1

Js1 85311

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3 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Why not Richard Cordray? He got a decent enough amount of votes against DeWine didn't he? Has some consumer protection skills. Run on an anti-corruption platform?

Eh, I'm iffy on running a candidate that lost statewide in a really good Dem midterm again.

Cook Political had/has the following (and they changed the rating from likely to lean R):

  • Cheryl Brooks Sullivan, Franklin County Tresurer
  • John Cranley, Cincy mayor
  • Zach Klein, Columbus City Attorney
  • David Pepper, Ohio Dem Party Chair
  • Aftab Pureval, Hamilton County Clerk of Courts and 2018 OH-1 nominee
  • Tim Ryan, U.S. Rep
  • Emilia Sykes, OH House Minority Leader
  • Nina Turner (blech), former state Senator and current OH-11 candidate
  • Nan Whaley, Dayton Mayor
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TheStoicPaisano

TheStoicPaisano 9922

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Jordan doesn’t have the advantage of gerrymandering if he goes state-wide, but I think he tries it, likely against Tim Ryan. I like Fudge/Beatty more, but OH seems too red for them at the moment. Pepper is solid running Ohio Ds, but I’m not sure he’s a good candidate. 
 

Columbus will bloody Jordan with the sexual assault allegations, but D still needs to put up a centrist candidate. 

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Jive Turkey

Jive Turkey 12594

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how much of any of this impacted by the possibility of Trump's Patriot Party?  seems to be the big X factor.  that is, unless the GOP simply rebrands itself as the Patriot Party to appease Trump and win seats.

if Trump actually does form the Patriot Party and Jim Jordan flies under that banner, does Ohio run a traditional GOP candidate?

i think the idea of a Patriot Party is just smoke, but the grift could be too much for Trump to say no.

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Js1

Js1 85311

Posted
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Just now, Jive Turkey said:

how much of any of this impacted by the possibility of Trump's Patriot Party?  seems to be the big X factor.  that is, unless the GOP simply rebrands itself as the Patriot Party to appease Trump and win seats.

if Trump actually does form the Patriot Party and Jim Jordan flies under that banner, does Ohio run a traditional GOP candidate?

i think the idea of a Patriot Party is just smoke, but the grift could be too much for Trump to say no.

So like Kasich (R) vs. Jim Jordan (PP) vs. Democrat? 

I like our chances.  I don't think it's likely - Trump's only move to start the actual PP party is if he's convicted by the Senate.

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Js1

Js1 85311

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I think Kasich already said he wasn't running for senator...

Before today, Rob Portman was running - Kasich wouldn't primary him.  An open race changes the calculation for many people who initially said no. 

But Kasich vs. Gym Jordan is probably a blood bath, anyhow. 

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GopherRock

GopherRock 1765

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I first thought that Ohio is to Democrats as Minnesota is to Republicans: fools gold. Then I looked, and Sherrod Brown won a second term by daylight on the same ballot as Mike DeWine, and Obama won it in 2012, so who knows what to make of that race. It's a hard lift, but it's worth looking at.

Iowa is a red state now, even if Chuck Grassley is unable or unwilling to run again. Ditto for Florida, unless Rubio gets taken out from his right flank and Trump can break the GOP there.

Ron Johnson was dragged in by the Trump wave, but that was also the last time a Republican won a statewide race there.

So 2022 election will be fought in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. Imagine that.

FYI: the senators for the next state admitted sort into Classes 1 and 2, which means appointments to fill the seat immediately after admission, specials in 2022, and full terms in 24 and 26. I'm not sure who/how appointments would be made from DC. I read the statehood acts for both Alaska and Hawaii, and both directed the territorial governor to make the initial appointments.

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Js1

Js1 85311

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My Ohio strategy is easy:

Ask Sherrod Brown who he wants to run and who he think can win the state and back that guy 100%.  No ifs ands or buts.  Only one Democrat truly knows Ohio and that is Sherrod Brown. 

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Js1

Js1 85311

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Just now, GopherRock said:

Doug Ducey won't be challenging Mark Kelly in Arizona. Considering he was the best of Kelly's challengers, this race looks a lot less competitive.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/535535-arizona-gov-ducey-says-he-wont-run-against-mark-kelly-for-senate

Yeah he wouldn’t get out of a GOP primary. Kelli Ward turning AZ into VA and CO at record pace. 

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berlinerbaer

berlinerbaer 678

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Ron Johnson is not popular. I have to believe he's being advised to retire rather than put that seat at risk. You'd expect dipshit senators in red states like Missouri or Texas (wince), but not in a state that reelected Tammy Baldwin by double digits. And yet there he is, for now.

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406W30th

406W30th 1111

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8 hours ago, berlinerbaer said:

Ron Johnson is not popular. I have to believe he's being advised to retire rather than put that seat at risk. You'd expect dipshit senators in red states like Missouri or Texas (wince), but not in a state that reelected Tammy Baldwin by double digits. And yet there he is, for now.

I'm not sure if he's going to run again or hang it up, but I'd be pretty surprised if an out-of-touch nutjob like himself would voluntarily retire. Unless the writing on the wall was size 600 Comic Sans, I doubt that dipshit could read it. 

The other thing is that people in Wisconsin barely even recognize his name, even though he's the senior senator here. Last poll I saw said something like 35+% of WI residents "have no opinion" on the guy, which is absolutely wild considering he's been in office for 10 years. He may have hurt his chances by trying to steal the election for Trump but other morons like Hawley and Cruz have provided him cover. As much as Johnson should be forced to resign, the only public calls seem to be for the former two pieces of shit.

The guy to keep an eye on is Mandela Barnes, our young, Black Lt. Governor who you may recognize from the DNC. He hasn't announced yet but I would imagine he'll run and if he does, he should sew up the nomination pretty easily. He was great on the campaign trail, even in rural areas, and he'll drive massive turnout in Milwaukee and Dane Counties which is our best road to winning. 

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13050

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8 hours ago, berlinerbaer said:

Ron Johnson is not popular. I have to believe he's being advised to retire rather than put that seat at risk. You'd expect dipshit senators in red states like Missouri or Texas (wince), but not in a state that reelected Tammy Baldwin by double digits. And yet there he is, for now.

IIRC, he was one of the biggest recipients of NRA funds. Once in, not hard to see large swaths of Wisconsin voters ticking his name. The progressive tradition of their smaller communities is a by gone time (at least it was when we lived there). A former colleagues' family lived in a small town in the north central part of the state. His dad was a sheriff and, including the surrounding woods the whole scenario shared some similarities with East Texas in terms of the political viewpoints and overall attitudes.

A conversation on another thread talked about people leaving the smaller towns and not returning, and the people who are left behind? Most of the people we knew were in that type of situation. They left 'the farm' so to speak to seek other opportunities, but the ones who remained behind felt abandoned and forgotten. Seems like it fuels resentment and is an emotion that Johnson can tap into without much effort.

Funny that socialist FDR was the one that brought electricity to their farms and allowed them to connect with the rest of the world. My late father-in-law was in high school or college, can't recall which, when it came to his family farm in the midwest. He said it was a game changer for them. We still have one of their old lamps they used in the barn.

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9927

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On 10/26/2020 at 7:42 PM, Lobo said:

Like those two years from 2009-2011 when Democrats controlled the Senate, House, and Presidency plus about as "even" a SCOTUS as we're likely to see in a generation?  Remind me again what they did besides raise my health insurance costs and lower my coverage?  Let's get Trump out, then let's burn both parties to the fucking ground and shit on their corpses.  

We the people deserve our revenge, and those politicians...deserve to die.  

 

Honestly one of the coldest takes on this board.  The 110th Congress was historically on of the most productive since 89th Congress from 65-67 when LBJ went full Superman. 

The Democrats three missed opportunities were to do something on Climate Change, ban partisan redistricting, and bring DC into the Union to pad their Senate Majority.
 

 

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