2022 Senate Elections

[Sawbonz 27,567]

47 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

 

[UrbanAchiever 278]

Each side spent around $6 million. There’s simply no way to spin the magnitude of this defeat for the anti-choice movement. 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

I’m so much more upbeat about this election now. I want to go vote right now. Lets go! Make the GOP pay for killing Roe.

[Ted Dantzler 151]

As a JOCO/KC resident Its good to have an actual vote on abortion instead of having to vote for a state senator etc who makes the policy.

Abortion rights is probably like #6-9 on on list of priorities for me but I think women should have the right to have an abortion. Being a 30 something year old male in JOCO(I live on the Kansas side of KC about 2 miles from the state line)  I will say that alot of local females I follow on the gram were blowing up the social media with VOTE NO for the past month or so.

I am still shocked that 2/3 of the votes in a primary (not general) election were pro womens rights...IN KANSAS.

I think the GOP is the dog who chased a car for years and finally caught the car and realized its alot bigger than they thought.

Edited August 3, 2022 by Ted Dantzler

[Js1 85,372]

Blake Masters' super PAC has a poll showing Kelly up 49-44.  He's down 5 in his own internal, so uh, I'd say Kelly looks pretty damn good for November. 

[Pescado_Rojo 19,421]

14 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

I am very skeptical that the Walker Warnock debate will actually happen but if it does that shit is gonna be like watching me fuck: sad and hilarious. 

And over in 5 minutes? 

[Gil Bang 25,971]

Good news

 

HARRISBURG — The state Supreme Court has upheld Pennsylvania’s mail ballot law, preserving for the time being a popular voting method that passed the legislature with bipartisan support but was later challenged by Republican elected officials.

In a 5-2 decision released Tuesday, the justices rejected the GOP argument that the legislature did not have the power under the state constitution to allow Pennsylvanians to vote by mail without an excuse.

The 2019 law, known as Act 77 and employed for the first time during the contentious 2020 presidential election, ushered in the most sweeping expansion of voting access in Pennsylvania in decades.

More challenges to the law are on the horizon. Republican elected officials who brought the suit said Tuesday that they plan to appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.

A handful of Republican state lawmakers are also pursuing another avenue to have the entire law thrown out. That separate challenge, working its way through the state court system, was sparked by a federal ruling that found mail ballots that a voter failed to date, as required by state law, must still be counted.

The timeline to resolve the additional legal challenges is unclear, but supporters of the law said Tuesday’s ruling will preserve voters’ options ahead of the critical midterm election.

“This ruling assures that mail-in voting remains in place and Pennsylvanians will be able to cast their ballot legally in person or by mail without any disruption or confusion,” Gov. Tom Wolf, a Democrat, said in a statement.

A lower appellate court earlier this year struck down Act 77, saying that permitting no-excuse mail voting required amending the state constitution, a lengthy process in which voters decide the matter through a ballot question.

But in Tuesday’s majority opinion for the state Supreme Court, Justice Christine Donohue wrote that the Pennsylvania General Assembly “is endowed with great legislative power, subject only to express restrictions in the Constitution.”

While the expansion of voting rights is not guaranteed to be permanent, the legislature made a lawful policy decision, “based on the authority afforded it by our Charter, to afford all qualified voters the convenience of casting their votes by mail,” Donohue wrote.

All five of the justices who upheld Act 77 were elected as Democrats. Both of the dissenting justices were elected as Republicans.

Before the law’s passage, Pennsylvania had one of the most restrictive absentee ballot laws in the country.

In late 2019, Wolf and the Republican General Assembly struck a deal to allow 50 days of no-excuse mail voting before each election in exchange for eliminating straight-ticket voting. All but two GOP lawmakers voted for the bill.

Despite the early support, Republican sentiment on the law shifted throughout the 2020 election cycle as former President Donald Trump played up baseless fears of fraud via mail voting, claims which allies repeated in Pennsylvania.

GOP lawmakers in the state House and Senate — such as state Sen. Doug Mastriano, R-Franklin, his party’s gubernatorial nominee — have introduced legislation to repeal the law, but so far none of the proposals have received a vote in the General Assembly.

 

 

In fall 2021, a county commissioner and 14 state House Republicans — 11 of whom voted for the law in 2019 — filed separate suits claiming the law was unconstitutionally implemented as a statute when it should have been sent to the voters as a constitutional referendum.

That argument was first used in a 2020 lawsuit brought by U.S. Rep. Mike Kelly, R-Butler, that attempted to toss out 2.6 million votes cast by mail, likely handing the state’s 20 electoral votes to Trump. The high court rejected Kelly’s case on procedural grounds, arguing that it could not post-facto reject millions of ballots cast in good faith under what was at the time a legal method of voting.

 

 

[Biff Tannen 45,691]

19 hours ago, Ted Dantzler said:

I think the GOP is the dog who chased a car for years and finally caught the car and realized its alot bigger than they thought.

I said this last night.  I really hope this is as mobilizing of an issue nationwide as it appears to have been in Kansas.  AND I really hope those Kansans show up again in November and in 2024.

[Horn Dog 9,875]

1 hour ago, Gil Bang said:

Good news

 

HARRISBURG — The state Supreme Court has upheld Pennsylvania’s mail ballot law, preserving for the time being a popular voting method that passed the legislature with bipartisan support but was later challenged by Republican elected officials.

In a 5-2 decision released Tuesday, the justices rejected the GOP argument that the legislature did not have the power under the state constitution to allow Pennsylvanians to vote by mail without an excuse.

The 2019 law, known as Act 77 and employed for the first time during the contentious 2020 presidential election, ushered in the most sweeping expansion of voting access in Pennsylvania in decades.

More challenges to the law are on the horizon. Republican elected officials who brought the suit said Tuesday that they plan to appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.

A handful of Republican state lawmakers are also pursuing another avenue to have the entire law thrown out. That separate challenge, working its way through the state court system, was sparked by a federal ruling that found mail ballots that a voter failed to date, as required by state law, must still be counted.

The timeline to resolve the additional legal challenges is unclear, but supporters of the law said Tuesday’s ruling will preserve voters’ options ahead of the critical midterm election.

“This ruling assures that mail-in voting remains in place and Pennsylvanians will be able to cast their ballot legally in person or by mail without any disruption or confusion,” Gov. Tom Wolf, a Democrat, said in a statement.

A lower appellate court earlier this year struck down Act 77, saying that permitting no-excuse mail voting required amending the state constitution, a lengthy process in which voters decide the matter through a ballot question.

But in Tuesday’s majority opinion for the state Supreme Court, Justice Christine Donohue wrote that the Pennsylvania General Assembly “is endowed with great legislative power, subject only to express restrictions in the Constitution.”

While the expansion of voting rights is not guaranteed to be permanent, the legislature made a lawful policy decision, “based on the authority afforded it by our Charter, to afford all qualified voters the convenience of casting their votes by mail,” Donohue wrote.

All five of the justices who upheld Act 77 were elected as Democrats. Both of the dissenting justices were elected as Republicans.

Before the law’s passage, Pennsylvania had one of the most restrictive absentee ballot laws in the country.

In late 2019, Wolf and the Republican General Assembly struck a deal to allow 50 days of no-excuse mail voting before each election in exchange for eliminating straight-ticket voting. All but two GOP lawmakers voted for the bill.

Despite the early support, Republican sentiment on the law shifted throughout the 2020 election cycle as former President Donald Trump played up baseless fears of fraud via mail voting, claims which allies repeated in Pennsylvania.

GOP lawmakers in the state House and Senate — such as state Sen. Doug Mastriano, R-Franklin, his party’s gubernatorial nominee — have introduced legislation to repeal the law, but so far none of the proposals have received a vote in the General Assembly.

 

 

In fall 2021, a county commissioner and 14 state House Republicans — 11 of whom voted for the law in 2019 — filed separate suits claiming the law was unconstitutionally implemented as a statute when it should have been sent to the voters as a constitutional referendum.

That argument was first used in a 2020 lawsuit brought by U.S. Rep. Mike Kelly, R-Butler, that attempted to toss out 2.6 million votes cast by mail, likely handing the state’s 20 electoral votes to Trump. The high court rejected Kelly’s case on procedural grounds, arguing that it could not post-facto reject millions of ballots cast in good faith under what was at the time a legal method of voting.

 

 

Explain to me like I am a 5yr old how a law, passed by the Penn legislature on a bipartisan basis, and upheld by the Penn SC, could be successfully appealed to the USSC to be declared unconstitutional given article 1, section 4 of the constitution?  Oh right.. this GOP USSC.

[gmr548 16,580]

Explain to me like I am a 5yr old how a law, passed by the Penn legislature on a bipartisan basis, and upheld by the Penn SC, could be successfully appealed to the USSC to be declared unconstitutional given article 1, section 4 of the constitution?  Oh right.. this GOP USSC.

Not just bipartisan, Republican controlled legislatures in both chambers.

It’s a farcical idea. Meaning the SCOTUS will 100% intervene.

[The Dog 44,060]

lolz

(Take with a grain of salt)

Oh and SIAP but here’s a pro-Masters poll showing him behind:

[Zonahorn 8,079]

2 hours ago, The Dog said:

lolz
 

 

(Take with a grain of salt)

Oh and SIAP but here’s a pro-Masters poll showing him behind:

 

 

 

 

 

Likely voters, internal pac, and senator Kelly at 49. Looking good.

[The Dog 44,060]

[Sawbonz 27,567]

 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/06/tim-ryan-turned-his-race-surprise-senate-battleground-00050187
 

an overall positive report about the senate race in Ohio. I think Trump made Florida, Ohio, and Iowa more red, but it was kind of offset by making other places blue.

The GOP has some good points in the article too, but it’s still great that Tim Ryan is forcing the GOP and McConnell to take the race in Ohio seriously and invest resources into it that they can’t put elsewhere.

[Patrick Bateman 3,916]

It's Florida so Demings would probably need to be up by 4-5 points to really feel okay.... but it's something.  Make an already scrambling GOP fundraising unit have to protect another.

 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

2 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

It's Florida so Demings would probably need to be up by 4-5 points to really feel okay.... but it's something.  Make an already scrambling GOP fundraising unit have to protect another.

 

I wish it really was, but I won’t get my hopes up. 
 

the cook political report who is usually pretty accurate and conservative in their calls once said in the 2020 election cycle that Florida was lean democrat or towards Biden. We all know that similar to Ohio, Biden never had a shot here.

the rule is if you’re a democrat and Obama isn’t on the ballot, assume the worst in Florida when it comes to politics.

[Sawbonz 27,567]

Dobbs fucked the GQP

[gmr548 16,580]

It's Florida so Demings would probably need to be up by 4-5 points to really feel okay.... but it's something.  Make an already scrambling GOP fundraising unit have to protect another.
 

Val Demmings is not winning Florida. If she does, Democrats have already added multiple seats to their majority elsewhere.

The latter is good, because even if she does get more votes than Rubio, who honestly sees the State of Florida certifying a Democratic statewide win?

[gmr548 16,580]

It's Florida so Demings would probably need to be up by 4-5 points to really feel okay.... but it's something.  Make an already scrambling GOP fundraising unit have to protect another.
 

Val Demmings is not winning Florida. If she does, Democrats have already added multiple seats to their majority elsewhere.

The latter is good, because even if she does get more votes than Rubio, who honestly sees the State of Florida certifying a Democratic statewide win?

[Snake Diggity 4,625]

7 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Val Demmings is not winning Florida. If she does, Democrats have already added multiple seats to their majority elsewhere.

The latter is good, because even if she does get more votes than Rubio, who honestly sees the State of Florida certifying a Democratic statewide win?

Yep, if Demings wins that likely means 53+ democratic Senators plus McMullin in UT.  Not happening.  Certainly things are trending better for the Democrats, and at this point it’s reasonable to expect them to keep control of the Senate.  But hoping for more than that is probably foolish based on how misleading polls have been over the last 7 years.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,515]

Here is why I think Rubio wins FL:

• 2016, Rubio won by ~8 points while Trump only beat Hillary by 1 in FL. 
  • Caveat: Gary Johnson did take 2% of the vote in the POTUS race.
• In 2020, Trump beat Biden by 3. (no significant 3rd party results)

If FL realized static-to-more Trump support over those 4 years, is it realistic to think that Rubio will have lost a large amount of support?

 

[GopherRock 1,765]

Florida and Ohio are both red states unless and until proven otherwise. If polling comes out on October 15 showing those margins, I might buy it.

Still, the fact that Florida and Ohio are even in the discussion shows how big the Kansas bombshell was.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

15 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

Florida and Ohio are both red states unless and until proven otherwise. If polling comes out on October 15 showing those margins, I might buy it.

Still, the fact that Florida and Ohio are even in the discussion shows how big the Kansas bombshell was.

My guess is Oct 15 polls showed FL statewide D wins in each of the last 3 elections.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

44 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

Florida and Ohio are both red states unless and until proven otherwise. If polling comes out on October 15 showing those margins, I might buy it.

Still, the fact that Florida and Ohio are even in the discussion shows how big the Kansas bombshell was.

I remember while watching the 2020 election, just how demoralized I was at the time they were counting the votes in Florida. Biden actually won the Tampa Bay Area and duval county. He was outrunning Clinton in pretty much every county besides Miami dade. Until I slowly realized,  Trump was actually outrunning his 2016 self in pretty much every county too.

fuck Florida. 

[Js1 85,372]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Here is why I think Rubio wins FL:

• 2016, Rubio won by ~8 points while Trump only beat Hillary by 1 in FL. 
  • Caveat: Gary Johnson did take 2% of the vote in the POTUS race.
• In 2020, Trump beat Biden by 3. (no significant 3rd party results)

If FL realized static-to-more Trump support over those 4 years, is it realistic to think that Rubio will have lost a large amount of support?

 

Trump ain’t on the ballot this time. Rubio may win bc his brand is popular in FL but low information, infrequent R voters showed up for Trump only, period. 

[GopherRock 1,765]

12 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I remember while watching the 2020 election, just how demoralized I was at the time they were counting the votes in Florida. Biden actually won the Tampa Bay Area and duval county. He was outrunning Clinton in pretty much every county besides Miami dade. Until I slowly realized,  Trump was actually outrunning his 2016 self in pretty much every county too.

fuck Florida. 

Obligatory

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,515]

Florida seems to have embraced the Orange God/NASCAR/screw-the-libs mentality even while their citizens know that GOP policies are ruining the state.

We all know the concept of fuck-you money. There's a higher concept called fuck-me money. This is where I can make a decision that costs me more money but I do it solely to hurt you. This is where the Florida voter seems to be.

Example, you would think that FL would care about their quality of their coastal waterways since like 99% (or whatever) of the residents live within an hour of the coast: https://wusfnews.wusf.usf.edu/environment/2022-03-18/florida-tops-list-for-the-most-polluted-lakes-in-the-u-s-study-finds

[Js1 85,372]

3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Florida seems to have embraced the Orange God/NASCAR/screw-the-libs mentality even while their citizens know that GOP policies are ruining the state.

We all know the concept of fuck-you money. There's a higher concept called fuck-me money. This is where I can make a decision that costs me more money but I do it solely to hurt you. This is where the Florida voter seems to be.

Example, you would think that FL would care about their quality of their coastal waterways since like 99% (or whatever) of the residents live within an hour of the coast: https://wusfnews.wusf.usf.edu/environment/2022-03-18/florida-tops-list-for-the-most-polluted-lakes-in-the-u-s-study-finds

Their junior senator is railing against the lowered cost of insulin for Medicare recipients……

Despite being responsible for committing the largest Medicare fraud in history. 

[Biff Tannen 45,691]

10 hours ago, Sawbonz said:

Dobbs fucked the GQP

This is my hope.  I won't believe it til I see it, but Kansas should be scaring the shit out of them.

[Bateshorn 9,928]

1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

My guess is Oct 15 polls showed FL statewide D wins in each of the last 3 elections.

This.  I'll believe a Dem can win statewide when they actually fucking do it.  Move on, Dems, and focus on a girl you can actually get.,

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,515]

By all results Florida is trending red not blue. Obviously a trend is a trend until it changes.

Honesty I can't find evidence of impartial polls in FL, or they're extremely limited or dated. Like governor polls from February.

[The Dog 44,060]

It's Florida so Demings would probably need to be up by 4-5 points to really feel okay.... but it's something.  Make an already scrambling GOP fundraising unit have to protect another.
 

I’d want to see more but it was an R+4 sample in an R+3 state.

Likely an outlier, but not trash.

[A-Tex Devil 2,446]

If Dems can’t capitalize on what was learned from KS, it will be disappointing.  Every house and senate candidate should imply that a vote against them is a vote for preventing 10 year old rape victims from getting abortions.  Make it the same as the KS referendum in voters mind, particularly those inclined to sit it out unless they are personally worried about something….   You know, millennials and Gen Z. Until those under 40 think it’s as important to vote as those over 60, we are turbofucked. 

Edited August 8, 2022 by A-Tex Devil

[Neonmoon 38,129]

 

 

[Js1 85,372]

2 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

 

 

This is true.

Sherrod Brown also won in Ohio by 6.8 points in 2018.  Which is still insane, as Dems lost a Senate race in FL but won in Ohio.

Could easily see that happen in 2022 as well. 

[Gengs1 2,583]

Winning Florida is a dream won’t happen, Rubio will win by 5 points or more, the state is getting redder and more ppl are moving to it.
 

Demings is no where to be found and Rubio pac has been pumping shit ton of commercials from sheriffs on how Deming supports Pelosi and will defund the police. 
 

hell always remember that Florida elected a guy who stole billions from Medicare and keeps on reelecting him 

[HenryJames 66,082]

 

[Thrawn 538]

I can’t say that I see Rubio losing this one, but I can say that even though I personally voted against him last time. I didn’t have an overly negative opiojoon of him. I just mostly didn’t want the Republicans to have that vote in the Senate.

Now, I can’t fucking stand him. He has proven himself to be a troll and a boot licker. Just an all around asshole. Not quite like Rafael, but close. Very much a fit for the Trumplicans that I’m sure love him.

Hopefully there are plenty of others that feel the same way I do. Probably not enough. Although, I will be giving money to Val and hoping for the best. 

[atomheartbevo 89,716]

4 hours ago, Js1 said:

Their junior senator is railing against the lowered cost of insulin for Medicare recipients……

Despite being responsible for committing the largest Medicare fraud in history. 

You'd think people in Florida would give a shit about the price of insulin.

[atomheartbevo 89,716]

4 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

This.  I'll believe a Dem can win statewide when they actually fucking do it.  Move on, Dems, and focus on a girl you can actually get.,

Still, if they can force the Republicans to spend a lot of money on these kinds of races, that's not a bad thing.

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

 

 

And Obama won it in 2008 and 2012.  Ohio is Ohio.

[Horn Dog 9,875]

3 hours ago, HenryJames said:

 

Yea but she’s not a fetus so who gives a shit!

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

My opiojoon isn’t worth much, but my guess is FL ends up two points redder than it was in 2020. 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

9 hours ago, Gengs1 said:

Winning Florida is a dream won’t happen, Rubio will win by 5 points or more, the state is getting redder and more ppl are moving to it.
 

Demings is no where to be found and Rubio pac has been pumping shit ton of commercials from sheriffs on how Deming supports Pelosi and will defund the police. 
 

hell always remember that Florida elected a guy who stole billions from Medicare and keeps on reelecting him 

Florida has elected Rick Scott 3 times in the last 12 years. Let that sink in. Very cringeworthy.

[Js1 85,372]

8 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Florida has elected Rick Scott 3 times in the last 12 years. Let that sink in. Very cringeworthy.

And the worst part is he BARELY wins.  

Fucking GOP magic in Florida - by 1.15% in 2010, 1.07% in 2014, and 0.13% in 2018. 

[Pescado_Rojo 19,421]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

And the worst part is he BARELY wins.  

Fucking GOP magic in Florida - by 1.15% in 2010, 1.07% in 2014, and 0.13% in 2018. 

It's almost like the side that's constantly whining about election fraud is somehow commiting election fraud....

[Voldemort86 2,259]

35 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

It's almost like the side that's constantly whining about election fraud is somehow commiting election fraud....

We hardly ever hear the GOP complain about elections in Florida.  Hmm I wonder why?  Besides wanting to get rid of the woman in charge of Miami dade county votes.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,103]

 

[Js1 85,372]

Pennsylvania Senate Race: Fetterman leads Oz in new poll (abc27.com)

Fetterman 47-30, 52-38 with leaners

They just don't fucking like Oz - 26/38 favorability and only gets 63% of Trump voters.  Fetterman 45/19 and get's 17% of Republicans

Comes one day after Fox News poll had it 47-36 so pretty close. 538 has projected 50-46.8 with a 67% chance for Fetterman to be the junior senator from Pennsylvania in January 2023.