2022 Senate Elections

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

16 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Pennsylvania Senate Race: Fetterman leads Oz in new poll (abc27.com)

Fetterman 47-30, 52-38 with leaners

They just don't fucking like Oz - 26/38 favorability and only gets 63% of Trump voters.  Fetterman 45/19 and get's 17% of Republicans

Comes one day after Fox News poll had it 47-36 so pretty close. 538 has projected 50-46.8 with a 67% chance for Fetterman to be the junior senator from Pennsylvania in January 2023.

this race is the clearest "who would you rather share a beer with" in history.  

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19101]

 

[Gil Bang 25951]

11 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Florida has elected Rick Scott 3 times in the last 12 years. Let that sink in. Very cringeworthy.

 

 

[RDCanecutter 26428]

1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

this race is the clearest "who would you rather share a beer and a shot, and hey you got any more o' them pickled eggs Lucille-- I dunno Johnny I'll hafta look with" in history.  

fif yinz

[Ghost of LL 15531]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Pennsylvania Senate Race: Fetterman leads Oz in new poll (abc27.com)

Fetterman 47-30, 52-38 with leaners

They just don't fucking like Oz - 26/38 favorability and only gets 63% of Trump voters.  Fetterman 45/19 and get's 17% of Republicans

Comes one day after Fox News poll had it 47-36 so pretty close. 538 has projected 50-46.8 with a 67% chance for Fetterman to be the junior senator from Pennsylvania in January 2023.

Is that 26/38 favorability among Trump voters?  Because last I saw, Oz was underwater among Republicans.  And that's really extraordinary--I don't think I've ever seen a nominee for a statewide office underwater among his own party's voters.

[Js1 85321]

5 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Is that 26/38 favorability among Trump voters?  Because last I saw, Oz was underwater among Republicans.  And that's really extraordinary--I don't think I've ever seen a nominee for a statewide office underwater among his own party's voters.

Don't think they broke it down by party, that's overall.  It's still pretty bad. 

[Neonmoon 38129]

Fetterman is smartly attacking Oz on two things Republicans hate

Foreigners and People from New Jersey

 

[Js1 85321]

Dobbs Decision Tilts NC Senate Race Toward Beasley - Chism Strategies

46-42 Beasley over Budd.

49% opposition to Dobbs decision

[Gil Bang 25951]

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

glad to see kelly crushing it.  this board was very amped about his first election and it ended up being kind of tepid.  glad he's picked up steam since then.

[Neonmoon 38129]

On 8/9/2022 at 3:51 PM, Js1 said:

Dobbs Decision Tilts NC Senate Race Toward Beasley - Chism Strategies

46-42 Beasley over Budd.

49% opposition to Dobbs decision

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

1 minute ago, Neonmoon said:

keep it in your pants, cal.

[Js1 85321]

8 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

People hate on NC, and rightly so, bc of 2020 (god damnit Cunningham, keep it in your pants).

But Beasley is a 2-time statewide winner, including in a very red year in 2014, and only lost her 2020 race by 450 votes.  I bet she wins that if Cunningham kept it in his pants.  She needs to run the Obama 2008 / Warnock 2021 playbook - turnout voters in the cities and suburbs and the rural black voters. 

She lost by 450 votes (.008%) while Biden lost the state by 1.35% and Cunningham lost by 1.8%.  She outran both of them. 

Beasley 2,695,550
Biden 2,684,292
Cunningham 2,569,965

Edited August 11, 2022 by Js1

[gmr548 16576]

I’ll be honest, I have paid very little attention to NC and didn’t know Democrats are running a black woman.

The opportunity to elect NC’s first black senator, and a woman running right after Dobbs… That’s going to be quite the contrast to your typical southern Republican.

[Js1 85321]

6 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I’ll be honest, I have paid very little attention to NC and didn’t know Democrats are running a black woman.

The opportunity to elect NC’s first black senator, and a woman running right after Dobbs… That’s going to be quite the contrast to your typical southern Republican.

Budd is also pretty far right, like among the furthest right House members. NC is not a Tennessee or Kentucky. 

[GopherRock 1765]

17 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I’ll be honest, I have paid very little attention to NC and didn’t know Democrats are running a black woman.

The opportunity to elect NC’s first black senator, and a woman running right after Dobbs… That’s going to be quite the contrast to your typical southern Republican.

From the jump, I've had North Carolina firmly entrenched with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the top tier of Democratic pickup opportunities, and that was before seeing Cheri Beasley only losing by 380 votes with both Cal Cunningham and Donald Trump on that ballot. I've had it PA/WI/NC, (large gap) OH/FL if things go the right way, (large gap) all the rest.

Tim Ryan's latest polling in Ohio is trying to make an argument of why I should move it out of the lottery ticket tier. Iowa doesn't get promoted unless Chuck Grassley buys the farm. Republicans dodged a massive bullet in Missouri by putting Eric Grietens out to pasture. And if Val Demings winning in Florida would be the biggest shocker of the cycle.

[Voldemort86 2259]

49 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

From the jump, I've had North Carolina firmly entrenched with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the top tier of Democratic pickup opportunities, and that was before seeing Cheri Beasley only losing by 380 votes with both Cal Cunningham and Donald Trump on that ballot. I've had it PA/WI/NC, (large gap) OH/FL if things go the right way, (large gap) all the rest.

Tim Ryan's latest polling in Ohio is trying to make an argument of why I should move it out of the lottery ticket tier. Iowa doesn't get promoted unless Chuck Grassley buys the farm. Republicans dodged a massive bullet in Missouri by putting Eric Grietens out to pasture. And if Val Demings winning in Florida would be the biggest shocker of the cycle.

I used to take North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, heck even Iowa seriously,  but Trump has changed the states so much and made them pretty red.  Thank god Virginia, Colorado, Arizona, and Georgia are shifting the right way to counteract it.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

NC was number 1 I thought last time before Cal submarined it.  I can see it as still gettable.  

[gmr548 16576]

From the jump, I've had North Carolina firmly entrenched with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the top tier of Democratic pickup opportunities, and that was before seeing Cheri Beasley only losing by 380 votes with both Cal Cunningham and Donald Trump on that ballot. I've had it PA/WI/NC, (large gap) OH/FL if things go the right way, (large gap) all the rest.
Tim Ryan's latest polling in Ohio is trying to make an argument of why I should move it out of the lottery ticket tier. Iowa doesn't get promoted unless Chuck Grassley buys the farm. Republicans dodged a massive bullet in Missouri by putting Eric Grietens out to pasture. And if Val Demings winning in Florida would be the biggest shocker of the cycle.

I was confident democrats were going 3/3 in NC in 2020, and vocal about that. Rickperryoops.gif

It’s essentially the same coalition as Georgia, so the opportunity is there, hard for me to put it in the same tier as Biden states after it went and voted for a second Trump term. Hopefully that’s too simplistic.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

8 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I was confident democrats were going 3/3 in NC in 2020, and vocal about that. Rickperryoops.gif

It’s essentially the same coalition as Georgia, so the opportunity is there, hard for me to put it in the same tier as Biden states after it went and voted for a second Trump term. Hopefully that’s too simplistic.

i was looked at urban/rural divide there and it is surprisingly way more rural that most states with a shot with D.  trending urban, of course, so maybe things will be a little easier than 2 or 4 years ago.

[HenryJames 66048]

 

[David Dennison 18856]

 

[The Dog 44043]

 

[Gatorubet 30234]

On 8/9/2022 at 12:50 PM, Neonmoon said:

Fetterman is smartly attacking Oz on two things Republicans hate

Foreigners and People from New Jersey

 

I worry about a massacre. 

[Patrick Bateman 3913]

Just about 12 weeks from voting date.... In other words, this is the battle.  It's not early anymore.  Movement can be made but things will start being baked in in the next 6-8 weeks.  Moving time.  That Nevada poll is low key worrisome.

 

[StassneyHorn 6575]

All registered Nevadans receive a ballot in the mail. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Just about 12 weeks from voting date.... In other words, this is the battle.  It's not early anymore.  Movement can be made but things will start being baked in in the next 6-8 weeks.  Moving time.  That Nevada poll is low key worrisome.

 

Nevada worse than I hoped,  NC better than I hoped.

 

Florida, NC, and Ohio I’m trying not to get my hopes up at all tho.

[Js1 85321]

6 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Nevada worse than I hoped,  NC better than I hoped.

 

Florida, NC, and Ohio I’m trying not to get my hopes up at all tho.

You fucks worry about Nevada every cycle and it always comes through. It’s notoriously the hardest state to poll bc of Clark County and the 24 hour service industry. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

You fucks worry about Nevada every cycle and it always comes through. It’s notoriously the hardest state to poll bc of Clark County and the 24 hour service industry. 

A lot of chatter about GOP voter registrations catching up in Clark county to reduce the firewall and Hispanics turning their back on the dems.

[HenryJames 66048]

 

[Js1 85321]

53 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

 

Buying crudite at “Wedners”

What a gd damn moron 

[Neonmoon 38129]

Next, he will travel to Scranton in search of a good Croque monsieur 

 

 

[ConferenceRoom 6141]

Packaged guacamole. Fucking goddamn yankees. 

[RDCanecutter 26428]

3 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Next, he will travel to Scranton in search of a good Croque monsieur 

 

 

And wander along the Schuykill in his scarf, absently browsing the used booksellers.

[Firemans4Horn 18048]

1 hour ago, HenryJames said:

 

 

He hired Nathan Fielder to run his campaign

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13512]

On 8/13/2022 at 7:55 PM, HenryJames said:

 

Fetterman should be giving the person, behind this ad, a huge raise. I know the guy's a real doctor but effectively Oz played a snake oil salesman with an MD on TV. For the few people that somehow thought Oz was a helpful doctor on TV, this shows how he was the opposite including how he backtracked when testifying to congress.

Good for him but Fetterman looks to be running up the score. Fetterman's real opponent is his cardiovascular system. 

 

[babysdaddy 2721]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

You fucks worry about Nevada every cycle and it always comes through. It’s notoriously the hardest state to poll bc of Clark County and the 24 hour service industry. 

Florida: Democrats, Nevada: Republicans

[Js1 85321]

9 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

Florida: Democrats, Nevada: Republicans

At this point, yeah, pretty much. 

GOP in Nevada haven't won a big 3 statewide race (Gov, Senate, President) since 2014.  Dems haven't won a big 3 statewide race in Florida since 2012.

Dems will lose a big 3 race in Nevada when they win a big 3 race in Florida.  Both states will be close, but will stick to their trends. 

[Firemans4Horn 18048]

 

[chainsaw 9867]

15 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

Two dollar crown of broccoli? Likely bullshit unless you're going organic which have always been that price.

$4 asparagus is believable, $4 carrots is not (unless you're getting organic, with same caveat as the broccoli)

pre-packaged baby diarrhea guac at $4 has always been around that price.

produce section salsa maybe has gone up by a dollar, but $6 seems like whole foods territory. cry me a river and pick up the Pace.

None of this is Joe Biden's fault

Edited August 15, 2022 by chainsaw
formatting

[Nice Guy Eddie 13512]

Don't be surprised if Oz goes full hardcore Trumpist soon. He's throwing everything against the wall to see what sticks. 

[ConferenceRoom 6141]

I bet that guac sticks. 

[Horn Dog 9844]

He needs to answer what the blue collar trumpkins are really wondering....  How much is the arugula??

 

 

[Gengs1 2583]

17 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Don't be surprised if Oz goes full hardcore Trumpist soon. He's throwing everything against the wall to see what sticks. 

I mean he has not other options then that or beg trump to campaign with him or for him. 

[chainsaw 9867]

Must be kind of demoralizing to Beto that he has to visit every county on a grueling 50 day tour just to have a puncher's chance against Abbott, meanwhile Fetterman's 10 point lead is only getting larger and all he's been doing is memeing from bed as he recovers from a stroke.

[Horn Dog 9844]

1 minute ago, chainsaw said:

Must be kind of demoralizing to Beto that he has to visit every county on a grueling 50 day tour just to have a puncher's chance against Abbott, meanwhile Fetterman's 10 point lead is only getting larger and all he's been doing is memeing from bed as he recovers from a stroke.

Yes, but what is really demoralizing is that the average Ohioan may be smarter than the average Texan. 

[chainsaw 9867]

4 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

Yes, but what is really demoralizing is that the average Ohioan may be smarter than the average Texan. 

If they're so smart why do they live in Ohio? Say what you will but nobody needs to buy up billboards in Columbus begging people to move to Austin. If anything we should be begging people not to move here.

[Guest]

I've never in my life heard the term crudite (had to look up how to spell it). I'm sure this play well with PA voters.

"Damn right Oz! My crudite expenses are through the damn roof. Thanks a lot Brandon!"

[chainsaw 9867]

Just now, FirstTimeCaller said:

I've never in my life heard the term crudite (had to look up how to spell it). I'm sure this play well with PA voters.

"Damn right Oz! My crudite expenses are through the damn roof. Thanks a lot Brandon!"

Same here. I rewound that shit like four times trying to figure out what he said and assume he was talking about a film crew (like a craft services table for them). He's definitely connecting with those yinzers.

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Must be kind of demoralizing to Beto that he has to visit every county on a grueling 50 day tour just to have a puncher's chance against Abbott, meanwhile Fetterman's 10 point lead is only getting larger and all he's been doing is memeing from bed as he recovers from a stroke.

A couple of more serious points on this:

1. If Beto had Fetterman's social media team, I think he could meme the hell out of Abbott. Those guys have an easy mark, but they are rolling with it.

2. If Beto looked like Fetterman, I think he's be in the lead right now. Fetterman doesn't look like a "lib" -- he looks (and is) a big dude who looks like a badass. I think that goes a long way with some people, especially in the rural counties.