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2022 Senate Elections

Ghost of LL

By Ghost of LL
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Zonahorn
Zonahorn
Bama Chick
Bama Chick

That “majority” has been remembered as something that never actually existed. Let's clear that all up, shall we? Starting January 2009, at the beginning of the 111th Congress, in the month that Bara

Pescado_Rojo
Pescado_Rojo

I'd pay good money to watch Big John Fetterman beat Steve Bannon to death with Roger Stone. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,529

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I know it was chance of winning since it was written on the image. But there is no way in fuck that having a 60/40 split is a toss-up whether in an election or a ballgame. 

At this moment 538 has the NC race at a 65-35 in favor of Budd. But they analyze the polls and the actual vote estimate is 49.4% to 46.8% once again in favor of Budd. Since that is within the margin of error, I would say that is a toss-up or close to it.

Having a 40% (or 35%) chance of winning gives you a good chance of winning.  In gambling terms, the money would be +185 for the underdog.

As someone else wrote, Trump was a much larger underdog in 2016 using the same analysis. 

 

 

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Js1

Js1 85,627

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24 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

At this moment 538 has the NC race at a 65-35 in favor of Budd. But they analyze the polls and the actual vote estimate is 49.4% to 46.8% once again in favor of Budd. Since that is within the margin of error, I would say that is a toss-up or close to it.

Having a 40% (or 35%) chance of winning gives you a good chance of winning.  In gambling terms, the money would be +185 for the underdog.

As someone else wrote, Trump was a much larger underdog in 2016 using the same analysis. 

 

 

Also gotta follow the momentum.  She’s closing the gap, so unless all polling is wildly wrong and the three elections since Dobbs mean nothing, it shows a trend

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Pods

Pods 7,587

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Anyone who thought Fetterman wouldn't massacre Oz doesn't know any Pennsylvanians. Oz has no chance in the cities and his support in Pennsyltucky will massively underperform what other GQP candidates would have pulled.

Fetterman's health is the only potential issue here.  

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chainsaw

chainsaw 9,879

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9 minutes ago, Pods said:

Anyone who thought Fetterman wouldn't massacre Oz doesn't know any Pennsylvanians. Oz has no chance in the cities and his support in Pennsyltucky will massively underperform what other GQP candidates would have pulled.

Fetterman's health is the only potential issue here.  

I'd love to see a boxing match between the two

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GopherRock

GopherRock 1,770

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Also gotta follow the momentum.  She’s closing the gap, so unless all polling is wildly wrong and the three elections since Dobbs mean nothing, it shows a trend

This. The momentum is why we're even discussing Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, and North Carolina in this thread. 

Speaking of Florida, that same poll that shows Demings with a 48-44 lead on Marco also has 71 percent opposition to the Florida's complete ban on abortion. At what point does that start weighing on DeSantis? Dobbs and Kansas have wiped out any talk of a red wave. My optimistic side thinks that he's got nowhere to go but down, but then I realize that this is Florida we're talking about. 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19,228

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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

At this moment 538 has the NC race at a 65-35 in favor of Budd. But they analyze the polls and the actual vote estimate is 49.4% to 46.8% once again in favor of Budd. Since that is within the margin of error, I would say that is a toss-up or close to it.

Having a 40% (or 35%) chance of winning gives you a good chance of winning.  In gambling terms, the money would be +185 for the underdog.

As someone else wrote, Trump was a much larger underdog in 2016 using the same analysis. 

 

 

Ok, this makes a lot more sense.  49.4 to 46.8 would certainly be toss-up range.

I guess the odds of winning deal takes into account the rubes show up in force while the D's base will either stay home or have their votes tossed out.

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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19,442

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2 hours ago, GopherRock said:

This. The momentum is why we're even discussing Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, and North Carolina in this thread. 

Speaking of Florida, that same poll that shows Demings with a 48-44 lead on Marco also has 71 percent opposition to the Florida's complete ban on abortion. At what point does that start weighing on DeSantis? Dobbs and Kansas have wiped out any talk of a red wave. My optimistic side thinks that he's got nowhere to go but down, but then I realize that this is Florida we're talking about. 

Man, why do I feel like Marco and DeSantis will both end up winning by .07%? Because Florida. 

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Js1

Js1 85,627

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7 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Man, why do I feel like Marco and DeSantis will both end up winning by .07%? Because Florida. 

Would suck, but also that’s a horrible political environment for GOP there. 

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Beantown Express 2.0

Beantown Express 2.0 6,559

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13 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Truly sleazy lawyers probably would be wary to be around Trump these days.

But Jimmy McGill might have taken that case on.

 

I would bet a bunch of money that Trump actually told his staff to try and hire that “Saul Goodman” guy as he seems like a great lawyer, not realizing it’s a TV show.  

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Js1

Js1 85,627

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Marquette Law should be releasing a Wisconsin poll in about an hour.  Let's see what they have from their June poll when it was Barnes +2 (46-44) over Ron Johnson and Evers +7 (48-41) over Michels

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Js1

Js1 85,627

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Marquette Law should be releasing a Wisconsin poll in about an hour.  Let's see what they have from their June poll when it was Barnes +2 (46-44) over Ron Johnson and Evers +7 (48-41) over Michels

51-44 Barnes. Hello!  It actually switched from June - Evers +2 and Barnes +7

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Js1

Js1 85,627

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Good news for Barnes but what's going on with Evers?

Michels isn’t well known yet. He wasn’t initially expected to win until Trump endorsed

Evers up 48-44 among those “certain to vote”

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Js1

Js1 85,627

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2 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Also, he’s the problem with this board.  We are all educated people.  We look to data naturally. We rely on data naturally.  
 

The only data we have are these polls.  So we take them as gospel.  Then every election we do the they don’t know shit about fuck post mortem. 

That’s not true. We have had 3 elections with huge Dem over performance. AK-AL won’t shake out for a few weeks. NY-19 will be a new data point next week. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,529

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It's far to say that close races will never be polled correctly. Looking back at 2020, 538's forecast* was wrong on the following:

GA: Ossoff had a 43% chance of winning. Win margin of 1%

ME: Collins had a 41% chance. Ran away with it. (Collins never won a poll leading up to election day)

NC: Tillis had a 32% chance.  Won by 2%.

* 538 does not poll anyone but instead has a model to analyze polls and historic data and trends. Based on the win chance % definition, 538 considered Tillis at 32% as a slight underdog. 

 

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GopherRock

GopherRock 1,770

Posted
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3 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Also, he’s the problem with this board.  We are all educated people.  We look to data naturally. We rely on data naturally.  
 

The only data we have are these polls.  So we take them as gospel.  Then every election we do the they don’t know shit about fuck post mortem. 

That is also why many of us are treading carefully at polls showing small but stubborn leads given the frequency and rightward-direction of polling busts.

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Js1

Js1 85,627

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Midterm polling is not terrible.  Remember that it was pretty accurate in 2010/2018.  2014, Dems fell off a fucking cliff quickly leading up to Election Day.

Both in 2010/2014, the GCB was right in line with what came about.

Trump really threw off turnout models in 2016/2020.  A lot of non-voters/unlikely voters showed up for him and only him. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2,259

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28 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

It's far to say that close races will never be polled correctly. Looking back at 2020, 538's forecast* was wrong on the following:

GA: Ossoff had a 43% chance of winning. Win margin of 1%

ME: Collins had a 41% chance. Ran away with it. (Collins never won a poll leading up to election day)

NC: Tillis had a 32% chance.  Won by 2%.

* 538 does not poll anyone but instead has a model to analyze polls and historic data and trends. Based on the win chance % definition, 538 considered Tillis at 32% as a slight underdog. 

 

Polling doesn’t account for extra marital affairs. We would have a senate seat in North Carolina if Cunningham could just keep his pants on.

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chainsaw

chainsaw 9,879

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Just now, Voldemort86 said:

This guy really is a fucking scumbag. Even more evidence that the GOP only cares about you if your bank account is in the top 10% of this country. They dupe so many people every election cycle.

Is he running on not punishing the pharmaceutical industry? Bold strategy. Let's see how it works out for him.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,529

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20 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

This guy really is a fucking scumbag. Even more evidence that the GOP only cares about you if your bank account is in the top 10% of this country. They dupe so many people every election cycle.

Looks like Johnson is desperate for money. You don't signal your opposition to lower drug prices for seniors except in a shameless beg for Big Pharma money.

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Gengs1

Gengs1 2,583

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A candidate with a competent social media would be hammering him with memes and tweets all day regarding this but dems fail at it

someone get Fetterman more $ to expand his social media team for other candidates 

Edited by Gengs1
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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19,442

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3 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

A candidate with a competent social media would be hammering him with memes and tweets all day regarding this but dems fail at it

The DNC needs to just hire Fetterman's social media manager and let him or her just troll the fuck out of all the Republican Senate candidates. 

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