Jump to content

2022 Senate Elections

Ghost of LL

By Ghost of LL
in Cloak Room

 Share

Recommended Posts

chainsaw

chainsaw 9866

Posted
Posted

Remember when they found a trailer full of dead people in San Antonio? How long did it take for the republicans to politicize it? There was no "cooling off" period or "too soon" complaints for that. But Dems aren't allowed to mention climate change while Naples is being destroyed or gun control while Uvalde is being massacred because that's far too indecent. Our media is a complete failure and joke.

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 2.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Zonahorn
Zonahorn
Bama Chick
Bama Chick

That “majority” has been remembered as something that never actually existed. Let's clear that all up, shall we? Starting January 2009, at the beginning of the 111th Congress, in the month that Bara

Pescado_Rojo
Pescado_Rojo

I'd pay good money to watch Big John Fetterman beat Steve Bannon to death with Roger Stone. 

Posted Images

Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, chainsaw said:

Remember when they found a trailer full of dead people in San Antonio? How long did it take for the republicans to politicize it? There was no "cooling off" period or "too soon" complaints for that. But Dems aren't allowed to mention climate change while Naples is being destroyed or gun control while Uvalde is being massacred because that's far too indecent. Our media is a complete failure and joke.

The GOP gets away with things because they have no morals.

they say they’re the party of the military, police, and families to trick people into voting for them, but they don’t actually do anything for those people.

  • Hook 'Em 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Sawbonz

Sawbonz 27548

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Js1 said:

Cook Political moves PA SEN to tossup (from lean D).

I don't know how the data bears that out - Republicans are "coming home" for Oz, but he's not led a single poll and has been stuck between 40 and 44, while Fetterman is routinely at 45+ and sometimes at or above 50. 

It's not a 9-12 point Fetterman lead, but 5+ which is not toss-up. 

If PA is "tossup" then NC/FL/OH should move to toss-up as well. 

These polls are all bullshit

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Js1

Js1 85316

Posted
Posted (edited)

For those worried about Dems having enough money down the stretch - LOL

Cortez Masto - $15 million 3Q
Tim Ryan - $17 million 3Q
Mandela Barnes - $20 million 3Q

Oz is allegedly going to report $17 million, but $7 million was a loan.  Fetterman has been a fundraising machine, so I wouldn't worry.  Dems have 2x the ad time booked for the next month in PA, compared to the GOP.  

Edited by Js1
  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Js1

Js1 85316

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

Portland Timbers What GIF by Major League Soccer

 

Republicans gain ground in Senate races in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/05/johnson-oz-gain-in-senate-polling-00060326

Wisconsin will be a 2 point or less race in the end, either way.  That's just the way it is there.  Hell, wouldn't be surprised if it's less than 1% either way. 

PA is still a solid Fetterman +5 or so lead right now.  Oz is consolidating his base, but he's not getting out of the low-40s currently.  538 just moved Fetterman to "very favored" (aka, 70%+ chance). 

  • Rage+1 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Js1

Js1 85316

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i don't think god loves us enough to get johnson out.  i bet he ekes it out

It's why I don't have a lot of heartburn about Cortez Masto, Kelly, Warnock or Hassan - Americans generally re-elect incumbents unless you're scandal ridden or deeply unpopular (Trump) or just fucking lazy and a bad campaigner (Bill Nelson).  It's not 2018 when you had McCaskill, Heitkamp, Donnelly, etc. running as Dems in deep red states that were all destined to lose.  We have pretty popular incumbents running in purple/blue states. 

I have more hope for Beasley, Ryan and Fetterman because they are running in open races than I do Demings or Barnes. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It's why I don't have a lot of heartburn about Cortez Masto, Kelly, Warnock or Hassan - Americans generally re-elect incumbents unless you're scandal ridden or deeply unpopular (Trump) or just fucking lazy and a bad campaigner (Bill Nelson).  It's not 2018 when you had McCaskill, Heitkamp, Donnelly, etc. running as Dems in deep red states that were all destined to lose.  We have pretty popular incumbents running in purple/blue states. 

I have more hope for Beasley, Ryan and Fetterman because they are running in open races than I do Demings or Barnes. 

I think Demings is toast. Detrumpis is too popular. I guess he became a GOP legend by keeping Florida open during covid and using it as an excuse to yell and scream at the libs.

Edited by Voldemort86
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gengs1

Gengs1 2583

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I think Demings is toast. Detrumpis is too popular. I guess he became a GOP legend by keeping Florida open during covid and using it as an excuse to yell and scream at the libs.

Florida democrats are some of the most useless, unorganized and just shitty run organizations there are, they are just pitiful. Their adds are shit, they aren’t doing anything besides letting the Rs win.

the Rs are sending flyers, adds etc and dems aren’t doing anything.

The amount of Desantis adds is enormous and dems don’t have a clear message and aren’t getting dirty.

whoever is running it, please take them out and shoot them in the face and then shoot them again 

  • Rage+1 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dutchrudder

Dutchrudder 11138

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

I don't see an issue with that logic. I know it's hypocritical, but it makes sense for their worldview. "The ends justify the means" is not an uncommon belief among Americans, especially within politics. He's an automatic R vote every time, why wouldn't they want that? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Js1

Js1 85316

Posted
Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

Florida democrats are some of the most useless, unorganized and just shitty run organizations there are, they are just pitiful. Their adds are shit, they aren’t doing anything besides letting the Rs win.

the Rs are sending flyers, adds etc and dems aren’t doing anything.

The amount of Desantis adds is enormous and dems don’t have a clear message and aren’t getting dirty.

whoever is running it, please take them out and shoot them in the face and then shoot them again 

TDP too. Outside of Beto, LMAO they are terrible. And Beto benefited from how unpopular Cruz was in a blue year. 

MORE:

2018 was such a mirage for Texas Dems - Cruz was unpopular and Beto overperformed in a blue year.  Fletcher and Allred were benefits of the nationwide switch of highly educated suburban voters from GOP -> Dem, same as the gains in the TX House, which disappeared in 2020. 

Add in that it appears GOP is making headwins in the RGV and may end up flipping a House seat and holding another, both of which are majority-Latino - god damn TPD SUCKS ASS. 

Edited by Js1
  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Rage+1 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Js1

Js1 85316

Posted
Posted

I still think GA will go to a run-off, barring some kind of Walker implosion.  And GA/national GOP does not want a 1v1 race with all the focus on Walker's abortion issue, domestic violence issue and general dumbassery.  Especially because if Walker doesn't win outright and it's some sort of Warnock 49/Walker 46 type finish, the screams of FRAUD will be so loud, they'll just do what they did last time and fail to turn out their own voters.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
The Dog

The Dog 44023

Posted
Posted

IIRC some of these predictions are based on the assumption that undecideds will break for the party out of power in off years (so for Republicans). 

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

SurveyUSA follows this up with Warnock 50-36 and Kemp 47-45.

SurveyUSA was an R+1 sample which IMHO is closer to reality than R+6 in Georgia (Cook PVI has Georgia at R+2).

Also keep in mind that Pennsylvania has a Cook PVI of R+2 but it seems all polls are D+1 or better in their likely voter samples. So there's a good chance that Oz over-performs his poll numbers. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15531

Posted
  • Author
Posted
59 minutes ago, The Dog said:

IIRC some of these predictions are based on the assumption that undecideds will break for the party out of power in off years (so for Republicans). 

SurveyUSA was an R+1 sample which IMHO is closer to reality than R+6 in Georgia (Cook PVI has Georgia at R+2).

Also keep in mind that Pennsylvania has a Cook PVI of R+2 but it seems all polls are D+1 or better in their likely voter samples. So there's a good chance that Oz over-performs his poll numbers. 

 

What exactly is the evidence that Pennsylvania is R+2?  That doesn't make just a whole lot of sense to me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Js1

Js1 85316

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

What exactly is the evidence that Pennsylvania is R+2?  That doesn't make just a whole lot of sense to me.

Well it was 3 points to the right of the national vote (Biden +4.4 nationally, Biden +1.7 in PA) 

Cook says R+2.  538 says R+3.9

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15531

Posted
  • Author
Posted
12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Well it was 3 points to the right of the national vote (Biden +4.4 nationally, Biden +1.7 in PA) 

Cook says R+2.  538 says R+3.9

Ok--that refreshes my memory.  So that means that the Cook PVI and a poll's sample are two different things.  @The Dog kind of conflated the two.  So if the nationwide vote is D+1, then a Pennsylvania sample of R+1 would be about right.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Js1

Js1 85316

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

Ok--that refreshes my memory.  So that means that the Cook PVI and a poll's sample are two different things.  @The Dog kind of conflated the two.  So if the nationwide vote is D+1, then a Pennsylvania sample of R+1 would be about right.

basically.  it's about what these pollsters think the likely voting demographics look like.  You expect higher turnout of suburban educated voters, especially women, and lower level of rural voters/young voters/minority voters.  But Dobbs really fucked all that up, which is why everyone's likely voter models are wonky af a month out. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45678

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

basically.  it's about what these pollsters think the likely voting demographics look like.  You expect higher turnout of suburban educated voters, especially women, and lower level of rural voters/young voters/minority voters.  But Dobbs really fucked all that up, which is why everyone's likely voter models are wonky af a month out. 

This.  The polls have honestly been fucked for a long while, but Dobbs completely throws a wrench in everything.  It's our only hope in a lot of races (Beto).

Link to comment
Share on other sites
The Dog

The Dog 44023

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Ok--that refreshes my memory.  So that means that the Cook PVI and a poll's sample are two different things.  @The Dog kind of conflated the two.  So if the nationwide vote is D+1, then a Pennsylvania sample of R+1 would be about right.

They are different things.

I was trying to reconcile their "toss up" rating with the polls for PA which looks like it should be a Tilt or Lean D. Fetterman is very close to or above 50% in several polls and Oz has only broken 45% in only 2 polls since the start of September (with his highest number being 47% - Fetterman got 52% in the same poll).

So I'm guessing that they think the pollsters' samples are off and that Oz has a better shot than everyone thinks and the PVI is was the only data point I found that could possibly explain it. 

44 minutes ago, Js1 said:

But Dobbs really fucked all that up, which is why everyone's likely voter models are wonky af a month out. 

Yup. The problem is there is no way to quantify it because there have been so few elections (but a few canaries in the coal mine). We really won't know the impact until after election day. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19190

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Dutchrudder said:

He's an automatic R vote every time, why wouldn't they want that? 

MAGAt:  "I don't give a shit about how fucking stupid that boy is.  There will be a plenty of unelected pros lurking in the shadows to keep that boy straight.  They'll tell him how to vote on everythang."

one minute later, same MAGAt:  "We need Herschel in the Senate to take out the deep state and drain the damn swamp."

Link to comment
Share on other sites
cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27598

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, The Dog said:

They are different things.

I was trying to reconcile their "toss up" rating with the polls for PA which looks like it should be a Tilt or Lean D. Fetterman is very close to or above 50% in several polls and Oz has only broken 45% in only 2 polls since the start of September (with his highest number being 47% - Fetterman got 52% in the same poll).

So I'm guessing that they think the pollsters' samples are off and that Oz has a better shot than everyone thinks and the PVI is was the only data point I found that could possibly explain it. 

Yup. The problem is there is no way to quantify it because there have been so few elections (but a few canaries in the coal mine). We really won't know the impact until after election day. 

Now tell us why NV is leaning R for Kornacki. Polling there is the suck. If it's news from anyone but Ralston it kicks in the cynical gene.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Js1

Js1 85316

Posted
Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Now tell us why NV is leaning R for Kornacki. Polling there is the suck. If it's news from anyone but Ralston it kicks in the cynical gene.

Yeah I don’t trust anyone but Ralston. Whatever he says at the end of early voting will be the truth and the only truth.

With the caveat I believe this is the first NV election where every single person is being mailed a ballot as well. 

Edited by Js1
  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13511

Posted
Posted

Fetterman is going to win short of another health scare or an external factor. Perhaps a poor debate performance can hurt Fetterman but the timing (10/25) is after early voting has started.

Agree that GA is most likely going to a run-off. The Libertarian candidate will take 3-4%.  smh.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
The Dog

The Dog 44023

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

Now tell us why NV is leaning R for Kornacki. Polling there is the suck. If it's news from anyone but Ralston it kicks in the cynical gene.

Again I think it's the assumption that undecideds will break for the party out of power in a non-presidential year. And there are a LOT of undecideds in NV. Laxalt is leading the RCP average but it's only 45%. 

 

image.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...