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2022 Senate Elections

Ghost of LL

By Ghost of LL
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Zonahorn
Zonahorn
Bama Chick
Bama Chick

That “majority” has been remembered as something that never actually existed. Let's clear that all up, shall we? Starting January 2009, at the beginning of the 111th Congress, in the month that Bara

Pescado_Rojo
Pescado_Rojo

I'd pay good money to watch Big John Fetterman beat Steve Bannon to death with Roger Stone. 

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Js1

Js1 85313

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6 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Again I think it's the assumption that undecideds will break for the party out of power in a non-presidential year. And there are a LOT of undecideds in NV. Laxalt is leading the RCP average but it's only 45%. 

 

image.png

The RCP average was off 8 points to the right in 2018. It’s just a hard state to poll. Maybe the hardest. 

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The Dog

The Dog 44020

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21 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The RCP average was off 8 points to the right in 2018. It’s just a hard state to poll. Maybe the hardest. 

actually it was 5 but good point:

image.thumb.png.521c7cfb7bdd05c370aa6c40ee8192cf.png

(it's Trafalgar that was off by 8...)

also that was an off year with a Republican in the white house.

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Js1

Js1 85313

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Just now, The Dog said:

actually it was 5 but good point:

image.thumb.png.521c7cfb7bdd05c370aa6c40ee8192cf.png

(it's Trafalgar that was off by 8...)

also that was an off year with a Republican in the white house.

Okay, how about 2010? 

image.png.c0432cc1c9816e9cf8aba194af8d3f79.png

2016

image.thumb.png.2df4c4307384a4134ccffcb443ec0084.png

2020

image.thumb.png.dda83f6f0e67bcdddf4aa41abc6ccd65.png

It's a systematic issue in NV. 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15531

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Okay, how about 2010? 

image.png.c0432cc1c9816e9cf8aba194af8d3f79.png

2016

image.thumb.png.2df4c4307384a4134ccffcb443ec0084.png

2020

image.thumb.png.dda83f6f0e67bcdddf4aa41abc6ccd65.png

It's a systematic issue in NV. 

That's why I have always said--Nevada is the Republicans' Florida.  The polls always make them think they're going to win; the election results always say different.

But sure--keep fucking that chicken.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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59 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

That's why I have always said--Nevada is the Republicans' Florida.  The polls always make them think they're going to win; the election results always say different.

But sure--keep fucking that chicken.

I still think Js1 is right and if I was betting money on it, I’d still go with Cortez masto winning by a point or two. However, it is concerning that probably 10 Nevada polls in a row have been red. I wish Nevada really was the republicans Florida, but we all know that the one more likely to flip of the 2 is Nevada. I think registered voter trends are also going the repubs way in both of those states.

Nevada seems so close that my confidence in the pick would be just 60%.

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Js1

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The polls with Laxalt leading are only concerning if you know nothing about Nevada, how the polls always overestimate GOP support and that for the first time, every registered voter in NV is getting a ballot.

Could he win? Sure.

The polls showing him winning have a lot of things that give me pause about that being the actual result - independents hate him and Latinos hate him. 

 

As he said today - it call comes down to turnout, but how you model turnout when everyone gets a ballot?

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Js1

Js1 85313

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Also we know exactly what will happen:

The polls show Laxalt winning.  He will lose by 2-4 points.

The polls show Beasley and Budd tied.  Budd will win by 3-5 points, at least.

NV and NC know how to blue ball the GOP and Dems, respectively. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Also we know exactly what will happen:

The polls show Laxalt winning.  He will lose by 2-4 points.

The polls show Beasley and Budd tied.  Budd will win by 3-5 points, at least.

NV and NC know how to blue ball the GOP and Dems, respectively. 

I think Beasley is the sleeper race of the cycle. I know you haven’t forgotten, but many people have that Cunningham was going to win the last North Carolina senate race if it wasn’t for his affair.

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Js1

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FYI, not that it matters for his resignation, but the shitty NE governor will pick an interim who will serve until the next scheduled general election (not 2022, it's too close) in 2024 to run to finish Sasse's term and then run again in 2026 for the full term.   Kinda like Martha McSally (appointed and had to run to finish a term) or Warnock (won the special for the rest of the term and had to run again this year for the full 6 years) 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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41 minutes ago, Js1 said:

FYI, not that it matters for his resignation, but the shitty NE governor will pick an interim who will serve until the next scheduled general election (not 2022, it's too close) in 2024 to run to finish Sasse's term and then run again in 2026 for the full term.   Kinda like Martha McSally (appointed and had to run to finish a term) or Warnock (won the special for the rest of the term and had to run again this year for the full 6 years) 

Ricketts is pure shit and weird as fuck. Perfect fit for Nebraska.

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Royalfan5

Royalfan5 2354

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

FYI, not that it matters for his resignation, but the shitty NE governor will pick an interim who will serve until the next scheduled general election (not 2022, it's too close) in 2024 to run to finish Sasse's term and then run again in 2026 for the full term.   Kinda like Martha McSally (appointed and had to run to finish a term) or Warnock (won the special for the rest of the term and had to run again this year for the full 6 years) 

It’s going to be Pete once Jim Pillen gets elected and appoints him, which at least will get him out of the state part of the time. Of course if Carol Blood pulled off a major upset it would be hilarious to see how it played out.

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Gengs1

Gengs1 2583

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2 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

He's the next president at UF.

image.png.90f6f8710388e589d0521bbc2c401377.png

These morons probably used the same consulting firm who recommended the last 3 football coaches and how that work out.

they will pay a lot of money to fire him soon 

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Tuco

Tuco 5076

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It’s going to be Pete once Jim Pillen gets elected and appoints him, which at least will get him out of the state part of the time. Of course if Carol Blood pulled off a major upset it would be hilarious to see how it played out.

Blood selects Ernie Chambers. Enough Republican heads explode to turn Nebraska blue.
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Beantown Express 2.0

Beantown Express 2.0 6559

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22 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

 

Sorry, but to an old dude like me, what the fuck does this mean?  If I am not "getting it" then I am positive most of the target audience in AZ isn't either.  It is amazing how bad both sides are at politics (except for Fetterman's folks as his stuff has been fantastic so far).  I guess I have to add all the Republican fear ads that for someone reason work on people (with Fox News and others backing up their claims).  At this point I have to vote for Greg Abbott here in TX or the brown people and Hunter Biden's dick are going to strangle me in my sleep.  I will let you figure out which one is doing the strangling. 

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Js1

Js1 85313

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29 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

 

The right cannot meme to save their lives 

9 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Can he run for President sometime in the next few elections.  

I actually don’t think he would want to. It’s not for everyone. He’s def a dream candidate for president or VP under something like Big Gretch 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13511

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I'm not overly familiar with the details of the WI senate race but Barnes seems to have some/enough baggage that I think Johnson will keep his seat. 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/07/politics/kfile-mandela-barnes-signaled-support-abolish-ice/index.html

Of course, its ok that Walker made mistakes in his past but if Barnes ever attended a Defund the Police rally, he's labeled for life.

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