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2022 Senate Elections


Ghost of LL

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1 hour ago, RDCanecutter said:

Couldn't we simply schedule a monster truck rally on election day? AH CAINT GO VOTE AH GOTTA WATCH THEM TRUCKS GO RRRAWWWRRR.

Stumpin' palooza 2022.

Best stump get's a year supply of Natty Light and a set of mud tires.

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I remember back when Reagan ran against Mondale in 1984 Regan was promising "Morning in America"  and all that shit.  I was a smartass college kid who overstepped my self-imposed boundaries by telling my grandfather that I was going to vote for Mondale.  Mondale, you may remember, had said during a debate that he was going to raise taxes  (because the deficit had exploded under Reagan) and that Reagan would, too.  Then Mondale said (paraphrasing)  "the difference here is that I'm telling you the truth about what I'm going to do."  My grandfather seized on that ONE LINE and kept saying "Mondale's going to raise taxes! He said it!"   So he voted for Reagan.  Two years later, in 1986, Reagan signed the biggest tax increase in history.  

What Republicans got out of that is that if you tell Americans the truth they will not vote for you. They want sunny performative politics and a promise that they, themselves, will not have to experience any pain.

I believe the economy is going to tank after the election.  Trump's going to seize on that, blame Biden, repeat over and over "I told you what would happen if you elected Sleepy Joe.  When I left office inflation was at 1.4% "  blah blah blah.  And that's all it's going to take. 

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7 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

I remember back when Reagan ran against Mondale in 1984 Regan was promising "Morning in America"  and all that shit.  I was a smartass college kid who overstepped my self-imposed boundaries by telling my grandfather that I was going to vote for Mondale.  Mondale, you may remember, had said during a debate that he was going to raise taxes  (because the deficit had exploded under Reagan) and that Reagan would, too.  Then Mondale said (paraphrasing)  "the difference here is that I'm telling you the truth about what I'm going to do."  My grandfather seized on that ONE LINE and kept saying "Mondale's going to raise taxes! He said it!"   So he voted for Reagan.  Two years later, in 1986, Reagan signed the biggest tax increase in history.  

What Republicans got out of that is that if you tell Americans the truth they will not vote for you. They want sunny performative politics and a promise that they, themselves, will not have to experience any pain.

I believe the economy is going to tank after the election.  Trump's going to seize on that, blame Biden, repeat over and over "I told you what would happen if you elected Sleepy Joe.  When I left office inflation was at 1.4% "  blah blah blah.  And that's all it's going to take. 

Not sure why fatty pos repped this.

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7 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

I remember back when Reagan ran against Mondale in 1984 Regan was promising "Morning in America"  and all that shit.  I was a smartass college kid who overstepped my self-imposed boundaries by telling my grandfather that I was going to vote for Mondale.  Mondale, you may remember, had said during a debate that he was going to raise taxes  (because the deficit had exploded under Reagan) and that Reagan would, too.  Then Mondale said (paraphrasing)  "the difference here is that I'm telling you the truth about what I'm going to do."  My grandfather seized on that ONE LINE and kept saying "Mondale's going to raise taxes! He said it!"   So he voted for Reagan.  Two years later, in 1986, Reagan signed the biggest tax increase in history.  

What Republicans got out of that is that if you tell Americans the truth they will not vote for you. They want sunny performative politics and a promise that they, themselves, will not have to experience any pain.

I believe the economy is going to tank after the election.  Trump's going to seize on that, blame Biden, repeat over and over "I told you what would happen if you elected Sleepy Joe.  When I left office inflation was at 1.4% "  blah blah blah.  And that's all it's going to take. 

At my job, we were comparing 2 software vendors about 6 months ago. We had an important requirement that Vendor A could do, and Vendor B said they would have it by go-live date.  Our leaders selected Vendor B because the vendor was believed and other factors.

We're going live now, and there is no timeline on when that requirement will be available, or if it will ever be available.

Since our company committed to the wrong vendor, we have to change our requirements and expectations. We're rewarding someone for at best overpromising and at worst, lying. But we cannot internally admit that a vendor selection mistake was made.

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38 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

At my job, we were comparing 2 software vendors about 6 months ago. We had an important requirement that Vendor A could do, and Vendor B said they would have it by go-live date.  Our leaders selected Vendor B because the vendor was believed and other factors.

We're going live now, and there is no timeline on when that requirement will be available, or if it will ever be available.

Since our company committed to the wrong vendor, we have to change our requirements and expectations. We're rewarding someone for at best overpromising and at worst, lying. But we cannot internally admit that a vendor selection mistake was made.

I’ve got an engineer buddy who, when some potential client would ask about an ability to provide anything, would always respond “oh, that’s off-the-shelf.”

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3 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I’ve got an engineer buddy who, when some potential client would ask about an ability to provide anything, would always respond “oh, that’s off-the-shelf.”

As a prospect, you gotta make sure that’s in the conference room pilot script.

4 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

At my job, we were comparing 2 software vendors about 6 months ago. We had an important requirement that Vendor A could do, and Vendor B said they would have it by go-live date.  Our leaders selected Vendor B because the vendor was believed and other factors.

We're going live now, and there is no timeline on when that requirement will be available, or if it will ever be available.

Enterprise software vendors can’t build anything in 6 months. With any reasonably complex solution, it takes months to do functional design, development, unit testing, system testing, integration testing, regression testing, configuration and implementation.

A good question to ask the prospective vendor is “lemme see your functional design specs and project plan”. If they can’t produce these, they’ll likely say “Oh. We’re agile. So, we don’t do that stuff.” That’s likely just a cover. The follow-up question is “ok. Cool. Lemme see you stories, product backlog, and sprint backlog.” If they can’t produce them, they can’t deliver.

This comes from 30 years experience on the vendor (product development and services) and customer side.

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3 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I’ve got an engineer buddy who, when some potential client would ask about an ability to provide anything, would always respond “oh, that’s off-the-shelf.”

As an engineer, I hate that shit.  I'm not going to highlight our weaknesses, but if I can't figure out a way to execute a project, it's a project I don't want.  Projects that start off shitty are just going downhill from there.  Life is too short to do shitty work.  I recall a rather heated argument I had with our BD guy because wanted to commit to designing an oil refinery (based on customer legacy PIDs) when no one in our office had work in the refinery market.  We found a work-around and the project evaporated anyway, but I was pissed. That kind of shit gets people killed. 

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Betting markets are insane right now. Just insane and defying all logic. 

dr. Oz has never led a single poll this entire election cycle and the MAGA idiots have Oz favored 60-40 over Fetterman in Pennsylvania. They have Kelly near 50-50 with Masters who I think hasnt let in any polls either. 

they also have Walker 55-45 over Warnock. Did millions of Georgians watch the debate?  Walker could barely put a sentence together and pulled out some phony police badge.

Fetterman, Kelly, and Warnock should still have a lead right now, the only one who I think should be in trouble is Cortez masto.

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35 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

Regardless of the result, I'll be spending 11/8 drinking like I'm watching a Texas 2nd half collapse. I should probably start hydrating now so at least my hangover is manageable if democracy's 2-year extension doesn't go through.

I’m just gonna pop a gummy and see what happens. It’s clear no one knows what’s going to happen, not even the pollsters 

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2 hours ago, hookem2010 said:

Regardless of the result, I'll be spending 11/8 drinking like I'm watching a Texas 2nd half collapse. I should probably start hydrating now so at least my hangover is manageable if democracy's 2-year extension doesn't go through.

 

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

I’m just gonna pop a gummy and see what happens. It’s clear no one knows what’s going to happen, not even the pollsters 

I am in Egypt.  I will look forward to waking up and reading the results in my NYTimes app on our Nile sailboat.

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From Politzoom.com:

I don’t agree with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell about much of anything, but on one subject we find ourselves in complete agreement. More than a month ago, reading the already-clear tea leaves, McConnell started preparing the sheeple that a likely change in the makeup of the Senate was not likely to change and blaming the issue on Candidate Quality.

The man knew of what he spoke. When the cycle started, there were widely considered to be 5 Democratic-held seats that were considered as prime, or realistic GOP pickups. Those were GA, AZ, NV, CO, and NH. In return, the only true weak GOP held seat was seen as Ron Johnson in WI. The wild cards in the deck were 3 open GOP seats, NC, PA, and OH, all GOP held, but without the incumbent advantage. And that’s where the problem lies, because Traitor Tot just couldn’t resist sticking his fat New York fingers into the mix.  In North Carolina he backed GOP state rep Ted Budd. In Pennsylvania he backed TV cruise ship doctor Mehmet Oz. In OH,  His Lowness backed billionaire Hillbilly JD Vance. In Georgia he backed former UGA football star and Trump overpaid former NFL star Herschel Walker. In NH, CO, and AZ Trump backed the usual bottom of the kitty litter box Trumpkin election deniers.

It’s turned into a Faustian nightmare for the GOP. Let’s be clear. Oz in PA, Walker in GA, and especially Vance in OH are all independently wealthy men, easily capable of at least partially funding their own campaigns. But each one carries a common bond with Trump: they’re all 3rd rate grifters who have no interest in spending their own money. So they wait for somebody else to bail them out.

Which is a nightmare for the GOP, because Traitor Tot has sucked the grassroots small donor data base dry. As a result, McConnell’s Super PAC has poured more that $20 million into the Vance campaign to prop up a billionaire. More GOP Super PAC’s are spending more than $10 million to prop up Herschel Walker in Georgia. And they’re pumping millions into Oz’s campaign just to try to keep it close.

But here’s the problem. It isn’t just these rich asshole marquis races. In New Hampshire Maggie Hassan’s race is tightening. Michael Bennet’s race in Colorado could be in play.  Nevada is in a dogfight. And despite all odds, Blake Masters is in striking distance in Arizona.  Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada is in a margin of error race with Trumptard Adam Laxalt in NV.

But none of them can get effective funding because there are lazy, useless GOPtards already in office that are already dying on  the vine. In Florida, GOP weasel Rubio is publicly squealing for money, and in Wisconsin, incumbent Ron Johnson is in the fight of his life. If the GOP wants to retake the majority in the Senate, the first thing they have to do is to protect the seats they already own. Which sucks away precious money the RNC and RSCC already doesn’t have.

Candidates like Beasley in North Caroline, Demmings in Florida, and Barnes in Wisconsin have already won the battle for the Democrats, because they have forced the GOP to spend money they don’t really have to defend seats they shouldn’t even have to contest. My guess? Democrats +2 in the Senate.

 
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2 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:


From Politzoom.com:

I don’t agree with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell about much of anything, but on one subject we find ourselves in complete agreement. More than a month ago, reading the already-clear tea leaves, McConnell started preparing the sheeple that a likely change in the makeup of the Senate was not likely to change and blaming the issue on Candidate Quality.

The man knew of what he spoke. When the cycle started, there were widely considered to be 5 Democratic-held seats that were considered as prime, or realistic GOP pickups. Those were GA, AZ, NV, CO, and NH. In return, the only true weak GOP held seat was seen as Ron Johnson in WI. The wild cards in the deck were 3 open GOP seats, NC, PA, and OH, all GOP held, but without the incumbent advantage. And that’s where the problem lies, because Traitor Tot just couldn’t resist sticking his fat New York fingers into the mix.  In North Carolina he backed GOP state rep Ted Budd. In Pennsylvania he backed TV cruise ship doctor Mehmet Oz. In OH,  His Lowness backed billionaire Hillbilly JD Vance. In Georgia he backed former UGA football star and Trump overpaid former NFL star Herschel Walker. In NH, CO, and AZ Trump backed the usual bottom of the kitty litter box Trumpkin election deniers.

It’s turned into a Faustian nightmare for the GOP. Let’s be clear. Oz in PA, Walker in GA, and especially Vance in OH are all independently wealthy men, easily capable of at least partially funding their own campaigns. But each one carries a common bond with Trump: they’re all 3rd rate grifters who have no interest in spending their own money. So they wait for somebody else to bail them out.

Which is a nightmare for the GOP, because Traitor Tot has sucked the grassroots small donor data base dry. As a result, McConnell’s Super PAC has poured more that $20 million into the Vance campaign to prop up a billionaire. More GOP Super PAC’s are spending more than $10 million to prop up Herschel Walker in Georgia. And they’re pumping millions into Oz’s campaign just to try to keep it close.

But here’s the problem. It isn’t just these rich asshole marquis races. In New Hampshire Maggie Hassan’s race is tightening. Michael Bennet’s race in Colorado could be in play.  Nevada is in a dogfight. And despite all odds, Blake Masters is in striking distance in Arizona.  Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada is in a margin of error race with Trumptard Adam Laxalt in NV.

But none of them can get effective funding because there are lazy, useless GOPtards already in office that are already dying on  the vine. In Florida, GOP weasel Rubio is publicly squealing for money, and in Wisconsin, incumbent Ron Johnson is in the fight of his life. If the GOP wants to retake the majority in the Senate, the first thing they have to do is to protect the seats they already own. Which sucks away precious money the RNC and RSCC already doesn’t have.

Candidates like Beasley in North Caroline, Demmings in Florida, and Barnes in Wisconsin have already won the battle for the Democrats, because they have forced the GOP to spend money they don’t really have to defend seats they shouldn’t even have to contest. My guess? Democrats +2 in the Senate.

 

The only thing I disagree with here is that New Hampshire and Arizona are close. Hassan and Kelly should win by 3-5 points. 

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New Alaska polling has Murkowski looking good

40.8% in the first round
42.2% in the second round after Buzz Kelley is eliminated
55.5% in the third round after Dem Patricia Chesboro is eliminated (her 16.9% basically goes entirely to Murkowski) 

Wins 55.5-44.5 over Tshabaka

Murkowki's positive/negative score is only 44/50 but Tshabaka is at 34/44 and Dems will not ever rank Tshabaka #2

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2 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I’m not a huge murkowski fan because she still voted for Trumps idiotic Supreme Court justices, but I want her to win just because she triggers the trumptards.

A Dem ain't gonna win, but she's 100000% better than Tshabaka.  She voted no on cloture for Kavanaugh and Coney, and didn't vote at all on the final vote for Kavanaugh.

No doubt she is terrible, but in this case, between her and Tshabaka, I'd take her by a million miles. 

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10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

A Dem ain't gonna win, but she's 100000% better than Tshabaka.  She voted no on cloture for Kavanaugh and Coney, and didn't vote at all on the final vote for Kavanaugh.

No doubt she is terrible, but in this case, between her and Tshabaka, I'd take her by a million miles. 

Agreed. She and collins saved Obamacare. Grateful for that.  It still upsets me that the northeast has a red senator tho while states like Wyoming and South Dakota get 2 each. Senate definitely has a rural bias.

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4 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:


From Politzoom.com:

I don’t agree with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell about much of anything, but on one subject we find ourselves in complete agreement. More than a month ago, reading the already-clear tea leaves, McConnell started preparing the sheeple that a likely change in the makeup of the Senate was not likely to change and blaming the issue on Candidate Quality.

The man knew of what he spoke. When the cycle started, there were widely considered to be 5 Democratic-held seats that were considered as prime, or realistic GOP pickups. Those were GA, AZ, NV, CO, and NH. In return, the only true weak GOP held seat was seen as Ron Johnson in WI. The wild cards in the deck were 3 open GOP seats, NC, PA, and OH, all GOP held, but without the incumbent advantage. And that’s where the problem lies, because Traitor Tot just couldn’t resist sticking his fat New York fingers into the mix.  In North Carolina he backed GOP state rep Ted Budd. In Pennsylvania he backed TV cruise ship doctor Mehmet Oz. In OH,  His Lowness backed billionaire Hillbilly JD Vance. In Georgia he backed former UGA football star and Trump overpaid former NFL star Herschel Walker. In NH, CO, and AZ Trump backed the usual bottom of the kitty litter box Trumpkin election deniers.

It’s turned into a Faustian nightmare for the GOP. Let’s be clear. Oz in PA, Walker in GA, and especially Vance in OH are all independently wealthy men, easily capable of at least partially funding their own campaigns. But each one carries a common bond with Trump: they’re all 3rd rate grifters who have no interest in spending their own money. So they wait for somebody else to bail them out.

Which is a nightmare for the GOP, because Traitor Tot has sucked the grassroots small donor data base dry. As a result, McConnell’s Super PAC has poured more that $20 million into the Vance campaign to prop up a billionaire. More GOP Super PAC’s are spending more than $10 million to prop up Herschel Walker in Georgia. And they’re pumping millions into Oz’s campaign just to try to keep it close.

But here’s the problem. It isn’t just these rich asshole marquis races. In New Hampshire Maggie Hassan’s race is tightening. Michael Bennet’s race in Colorado could be in play.  Nevada is in a dogfight. And despite all odds, Blake Masters is in striking distance in Arizona.  Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada is in a margin of error race with Trumptard Adam Laxalt in NV.

But none of them can get effective funding because there are lazy, useless GOPtards already in office that are already dying on  the vine. In Florida, GOP weasel Rubio is publicly squealing for money, and in Wisconsin, incumbent Ron Johnson is in the fight of his life. If the GOP wants to retake the majority in the Senate, the first thing they have to do is to protect the seats they already own. Which sucks away precious money the RNC and RSCC already doesn’t have.

Candidates like Beasley in North Caroline, Demmings in Florida, and Barnes in Wisconsin have already won the battle for the Democrats, because they have forced the GOP to spend money they don’t really have to defend seats they shouldn’t even have to contest. My guess? Democrats +2 in the Senate.

 

I don't know who thinks CO is in play.  It is not and never really has been.

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2 hours ago, Chewbacca said:

I don't know who thinks CO is in play.  It is not and never really has been.

Nah, the GOP truly thinks Colorado and Washington are in play.  Rick Scott, before he fumbled the fuck out of a favorable Senate map, absolutely said they were going to compete in Colorado, Washington, Connecticut, Illinois and Vermont. 

Fast forward to October 2022 and they are struggling to keep their own incumbent safe in Wisconsin (and somehow Utah!) and borking the fuck out of open seats in OH and NC and have basically conceded AZ, PA, NH.  

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2 hours ago, Chewbacca said:

I don't know who thinks CO is in play.  It is not and never really has been.

Especially with remote work. CO was safely blue before, but that margin got padded considerably. 

Same thing that is making Utah tight for Mike Lee. 

Lots of dems relocated to somewhere they could find cheaper housing and public lands to access during COVID.  

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2 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:

I just kicked in 15 bucks for Fetterman so that should seal up Pennsylvania.

They are debating tomorrow evening, and Fetterman has asked for closed-captioning on the questions due to his medical condition.  I fear that it's a bad look.  Let's hope he can explain it well. 

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1 hour ago, Gil Bang said:

They are debating tomorrow evening, and Fetterman has asked for closed-captioning on the questions due to his medical condition.  I fear that it's a bad look.  Let's hope he can explain it well. 

While Herschel Walker jabbers on like the literal crazy person he is.  Look, anyone who would hold that against Fetterman was never voting for him anyway.

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11 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:


From Politzoom.com:

I don’t agree with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell about much of anything, but on one subject we find ourselves in complete agreement. More than a month ago, reading the already-clear tea leaves, McConnell started preparing the sheeple that a likely change in the makeup of the Senate was not likely to change and blaming the issue on Candidate Quality.

The man knew of what he spoke. When the cycle started, there were widely considered to be 5 Democratic-held seats that were considered as prime, or realistic GOP pickups. Those were GA, AZ, NV, CO, and NH. In return, the only true weak GOP held seat was seen as Ron Johnson in WI. The wild cards in the deck were 3 open GOP seats, NC, PA, and OH, all GOP held, but without the incumbent advantage. And that’s where the problem lies, because Traitor Tot just couldn’t resist sticking his fat New York fingers into the mix.  In North Carolina he backed GOP state rep Ted Budd. In Pennsylvania he backed TV cruise ship doctor Mehmet Oz. In OH,  His Lowness backed billionaire Hillbilly JD Vance. In Georgia he backed former UGA football star and Trump overpaid former NFL star Herschel Walker. In NH, CO, and AZ Trump backed the usual bottom of the kitty litter box Trumpkin election deniers.

It’s turned into a Faustian nightmare for the GOP. Let’s be clear. Oz in PA, Walker in GA, and especially Vance in OH are all independently wealthy men, easily capable of at least partially funding their own campaigns. But each one carries a common bond with Trump: they’re all 3rd rate grifters who have no interest in spending their own money. So they wait for somebody else to bail them out.

Which is a nightmare for the GOP, because Traitor Tot has sucked the grassroots small donor data base dry. As a result, McConnell’s Super PAC has poured more that $20 million into the Vance campaign to prop up a billionaire. More GOP Super PAC’s are spending more than $10 million to prop up Herschel Walker in Georgia. And they’re pumping millions into Oz’s campaign just to try to keep it close.

But here’s the problem. It isn’t just these rich asshole marquis races. In New Hampshire Maggie Hassan’s race is tightening. Michael Bennet’s race in Colorado could be in play.  Nevada is in a dogfight. And despite all odds, Blake Masters is in striking distance in Arizona.  Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada is in a margin of error race with Trumptard Adam Laxalt in NV.

But none of them can get effective funding because there are lazy, useless GOPtards already in office that are already dying on  the vine. In Florida, GOP weasel Rubio is publicly squealing for money, and in Wisconsin, incumbent Ron Johnson is in the fight of his life. If the GOP wants to retake the majority in the Senate, the first thing they have to do is to protect the seats they already own. Which sucks away precious money the RNC and RSCC already doesn’t have.

Candidates like Beasley in North Caroline, Demmings in Florida, and Barnes in Wisconsin have already won the battle for the Democrats, because they have forced the GOP to spend money they don’t really have to defend seats they shouldn’t even have to contest. My guess? Democrats +2 in the Senate.

 

Sick and tired of winning

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