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2022 Senate Elections

Ghost of LL

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gmr548

gmr548 16580

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Keep in mind that these are their “deluxe” projections that factor in ratings from outlets like Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, etc. switching to the Classic, which uses only objective indicators - polling, in addition to economic and demographic data, historical voting patterns, etc. - is generally more favorable to Democrats. By their own word, the Deluxe version is sort of the downside forecast for Democrats because it factors in the subjective consensus that generally favors Republicans.

That said, we do live in a stupid country and I do tend to expect the downside.

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That “majority” has been remembered as something that never actually existed. Let's clear that all up, shall we? Starting January 2009, at the beginning of the 111th Congress, in the month that Bara

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I'd pay good money to watch Big John Fetterman beat Steve Bannon to death with Roger Stone. 

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WBT

WBT 20620

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1 hour ago, C-Man said:

First off, I could look at that GIF for hours. That is Scarlett at her absolute zenith.

And second, didn't 538 do rather poorly with 2020 projections?

I think they did pretty well in 2020 but I don't really get most of the criticism they receive in general.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeights-2020-forecasts-did-and-what-well-be-thinking-about-for-2022/

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11669

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1 hour ago, WBT said:

I think they did pretty well in 2020 but I don't really get most of the criticism they receive in general.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeights-2020-forecasts-did-and-what-well-be-thinking-about-for-2022/

They discuss in there why they were outside the 80% confidence interval for house races.  The main thing for me though is that MOE is basically the same as actual margin of won these days.  Polling is just getting harder to be useful.  This race is going to be 51% +/- 3%?  Well, that’s super insightful. 

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45691

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1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

They discuss in there why they were outside the 80% confidence interval for house races.  The main thing for me though is that MOE is basically the same as actual margin of won these days.  Polling is just getting harder to be useful.  This race is going to be 51% +/- 3%?  Well, that’s super insightful. 

This.  Political polls are probably more useless than preseason football polls these days.  The Rs are using the R-positive ones to try and depress turnout. 

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Js1

Js1 85425

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26 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

They discuss in there why they were outside the 80% confidence interval for house races.  The main thing for me though is that MOE is basically the same as actual margin of won these days.  Polling is just getting harder to be useful.  This race is going to be 51% +/- 3%?  Well, that’s super insightful. 

It's the equivalent of Cook Political moving as many races to tossup as they can. 

"Well it was a tossup, it just went left/right at the last minute!" 

Case in point: 2018 New Jersey Senate Race was declared a tossup by Cook Political on October 26, 2018 (11 days pre-Election Day).  Could it be? Could Dems lose New Jersey in a blue wave year?

Menendez won by 11+ points.  An 11 point race is not a tossup and never has been.  Public sentiment in NJ did not move 10+ points towards Menendez in less than 2 weeks in late October. 

But hey, it generated A LOT of clicks! 

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Chewbacca

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16 hours ago, Mo Horn said:

Everything I'm reading is starting to say many races are now leaning right. Yea, it's all speculation, but it looks like both house and senate are going to flip. 

Republicans are flooding the zone with polls, trying to make things look bad and discourage voting.  I don't believe the outlook is any different than it was a couple weeks ago.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45691

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1 minute ago, Chewbacca said:

Republicans are flooding the zone with polls, trying to make things look bad and discourage voting.  I don't believe the outlook is any different than it was a couple weeks ago.

This.  Don't fall for their bullshit.  It's meant to depress turnout, hence why I asked @Mo Horn if he had voted.  Also, there is no way to poll Dobbs turnout.  If we lose the House, it's probably over anyway, but the Senate, hold on to your butts, shit's going to get turned up to 11.

As for myself, I have directly made sure at least 3 other people vote that might not have without my prodding.  Knock doors, do whatever you want, but if everyone could make sure at least one other person votes that might not have, it's the biggest difference maker.

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Mo Horn

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Just now, Biff Tannen said:

This.  Don't fall for their bullshit.  It's meant to depress turnout, hence why I asked @Mo Horn if he had voted.  Also, there is no way to poll Dobbs turnout.  If we lose the House, it's probably over anyway, but the Senate, hold on to your butts, shit's going to get turned up to 11.

As for myself, I have directly made sure at least 3 other people vote that might not have without my prodding.  Knock doors, do whatever you want, but if everyone could make sure at least one other person votes that might not have, it's the biggest difference maker.

Totally agree. Sadly the poll for senate in Missouri is probably right and my vote won't matter... but I'll cast it anyway

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Js1

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2 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

Hope you're right.

Idk, depends if you actually believe some of these polls from right wing spam pollsters, like Sean Hannity, who say GOP will win  the 18-34 year old demo and the female vote and 20% of the black vote (which doesn't ever happen). 

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6 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

Republicans are flooding the zone with polls, trying to make things look bad and discourage voting.  I don't believe the outlook is any different than it was a couple weeks ago.

I also don't really buy that everyone is turning right all the sudden. What's changed in the last six weeks to drive that shift. 

The fact that Dems aren't up double digits is astounding to me. One party literally tried to overthrow an election and said they will continue to do as much. Two years later, let's put them back in power because 8% inflation?! When unemployment is 3.5%?!

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Mo Horn

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Just now, FirstTimeCaller said:

I also don't really buy that everyone is turning right all the sudden. What's changed in the last six weeks to drive that shift. 

The fact that Dems aren't up double digits is astounding to me. One party literally tried to overthrow an election and said they will continue to do as much. Two years later, let's put them back in power because 8% inflation?! When unemployment is 3.5%?!

Easy answer. A large percentage of American voters are idiots

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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19424

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1 hour ago, Chewbacca said:

Republicans are flooding the zone with polls, trying to make things look bad and discourage voting.  I don't believe the outlook is any different than it was a couple weeks ago.

It also gives power to their election tampering lie when they can point to bullshit polls that show them leading and then they lose. 

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Js1

Js1 85425

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3 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Most people have zero clue what any of this means.  Zero.

"I have a job, but things cost a bit more and gas is slightly higher?!?!!? *sigh* I guess that's the end of democracy and rights for women, look what Biden made me do" 

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13050

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2 hours ago, Mo Horn said:

...and my vote won't matter... but I'll cast it anyway

Yes, you have to. Even in my redder than red county, there are Republicans voting for democratic candidates in the booth. Entirely anecdotal, but I've had several admit to me that they just could not vote for the crazy turn the party was taking but they weren't going to broadcast it. I think the only reason I was told was because they knew I was a pretty solid R voter for a long time but had my fill.

Knowing that, it may just be that there are some races a little closer than what is shown. I voted in the R primary since there were so few D candidates but no R got my vote in the general.

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4625

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7 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

This.  Don't fall for their bullshit.  It's meant to depress turnout, hence why I asked @Mo Horn if he had voted.  Also, there is no way to poll Dobbs turnout.  If we lose the House, it's probably over anyway, but the Senate, hold on to your butts, shit's going to get turned up to 11.

As for myself, I have directly made sure at least 3 other people vote that might not have without my prodding.  Knock doors, do whatever you want, but if everyone could make sure at least one other person votes that might not have, it's the biggest difference maker.

I don’t think they’re meant to suppress turnout so much as set up for election fraud claims.  

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Aqua Buddha

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7 hours ago, Chewbacca said:

Republicans are flooding the zone with polls, trying to make things look bad and discourage voting.  I don't believe the outlook is any different than it was a couple weeks ago.

This.

No one was voting for Warnock or something three weeks ago and now voting for Herschel.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89735

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7 hours ago, Chewbacca said:

Republicans are flooding the zone with polls, trying to make things look bad and discourage voting.  I don't believe the outlook is any different than it was a couple weeks ago.

Yep.  I’ve even gotten a few texts that were pushing out bullshit polls to discourage voting.

Nothing has changed over the past few weeks, other than Walker made himself sound even dumber.  Abortion is still on  the ballot and some Republicans won’t back off from pushing that fact, making it clear they want no abortions.  People who didn’t like Biden still don’t like him, and Republican talking heads were still being assholes on Fox News and social media,

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89735

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18 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I don’t think they’re meant to suppress turnout so much as set up for election fraud claims.  

They can try that, but it didn’t work in 2020.

I think they are trying to suppress turnout.  2020 proved it was easier to outright win an election than steal one.

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Js1

Js1 85425

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38 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

They can try that, but it didn’t work in 2020.

I think they are trying to suppress turnout.  2020 proved it was easier to outright win an election than steal one.

Considering Dems have banked a lot of early votea (like they represent over 60% of the early vote), it may just depress the GOP voters 

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