2022 Senate Elections

[Aqua Buddha 14600]

That Ralston dude in Nevada knows his shit:

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

That Ralston dude in Nevada knows his shit:

 

That’s shocking. I figured CCM was done for.  If she wins then my senate prediction would go to 50-50 with dems winning PA / AZ but losing Georgia.

[Voldemort86 2259]

Looks like their might be a massive snowstorm heading for Nevada on Tuesday. Could effect things.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13521]

5 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Looks like their might be a massive snowstorm heading for Nevada on Tuesday. Could effect things.

Another good reason to early vote.

we need to flip the naming of voting. Early voting today = voting. Voting on Election Day is procrastination or late voting.

[Aqua Buddha 14600]

Why people don't early vote is a mystery to me.  I haven't voted on actual election day in over 20 years.  

[Left Coast 863]

Weather outlook Tuesday: 

 

Rough on the West Coast, including Nevada. Doesn’t look like Vegas will be too impacted, but Reno and the empty (red) parts of NV will be hit hard. 
 

Looks like weather won’t be a factor in the other key states.

[Js1 85527]

10 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

That Ralston dude in Nevada knows his shit:

 

The 538 tool says if Dems win NV, they have a 75% chance of keeping the Senate.

[CTC2 2798]

3 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Another good reason to early vote.

we need to flip the naming of voting. Early voting today = voting. Voting on Election Day is procrastination or late voting.

My mother for years would vote on the first day of early vote. I asked her why and she said “if I die before Election Day I want my vote to count”. 
I do the same thing. 

[Js1 85527]

Just now, CTC2 said:

My mother for years would vote on the first day of early vote. I asked her why and she said “if I die before Election Day I want my vote to count”. 
I do the same thing. 

They do run it against death records and some states throw your vote out. Others allow it to be challenged. Better off dying the day before Election Day so the county doesn’t have updated records by the time of counting lol

[Bama Chick 28596]

Why people don't early vote is a mystery to me.  I haven't voted on actual election day in over 20 years.  

Because some of our shithole states don’t allow it.

[tx 3 putt 77336]

51 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Because some of our shithole states don’t allow it.

 

if Texas early voting shows a heavy Dem turnout, 10000000000% Texas will soon get rid of early voting 

[Aqua Buddha 14600]

2 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

Because some of our shithole states don’t allow it.

For some reason, my shithole state (Arkansas) is really good about it.  Two weeks prior to election day, every county has multiple spots.  Very easy.

I wish every state had the same standards.  It's like baseball.  Same game but all the playing fields are different.

[YGIFS 19452]

1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

if Texas early voting shows a heavy Dem turnout, 10000000000% Texas will soon get rid of early voting 

I'm honestly fucking stunned they let it go on this year with Paxton and Patrick somewhat vulnerable.  It even expanded to include Sundays.  

I'm quite certain it will be dialed back in 2024 under the guise of "We just don't have the resources to monitor that many polling places for two whole weeks prior to Election Day and ensure ballot integrity."  -says Governor who can't the fuck up about our $26bn surplus, most of which will be "lost" on our "wall project."  

To your point about turnout, I'm very interested to see how it breaks down by party registration and then independents/undeclared.  Texas GOP is real worried about apathetic turnout for them.  Not enough to lose a statewide race, but enough to make some of them look way too close for comfort.  And only 4 House districts are remotely competitive this cycle out of 36.  But they are in areas where more and more folks are voting Republican the last 6 years.  If Democrats get to something like 75% turnout, it's game over for GOP.  But we know what's a long ways away from happening, particularly in a mid-term.  And I know there's some thinking on here that if you're not a lifetime, straight-ticket Democrat voter, then by intensive logic-you must be an evil Republican deep down inside. 

The most efficient way (meaning cheapest and fastest) to get over the 50%+1 hurdle is to continue to attract 5-10% of Republicans, 40% of Independents/Unaffiliated, and then 30-40% of Libertarians.  All the while stoking the thoughts by some older Republicans that the elections are still going there way, so they didn't bother to vote in person and certainly don't want to use scary dropboxes or vote by mail.  I see the demographic shifts favor the Democrat party, but the turnout of blue wave just focusing on existint Democrats is not working all that well.  It's making progress but it's a decade away, if not longer.  Literally several hundreds of thousands of Texas 3rd party and former Republicans turned out and voted for Biden in 2020.  With no organization, no outreach, if nothing else continuing to be shunned by both parties.  But they organically rose up, bundled money, put up signs and put a dent in Trump's lead.  Same thing can happen with Mike Collier.  Mike has done a really good job reaching out to voters who stopped pulling Republican primary ballots in 2018 or 2020.  Now many of those do that for other nefarious reasons.  But Collier's campaign realized "Patrick is a fucking douchebag who doesn't lead on shit.  More Republicans hate him than hate Trump.  Let's reach out to people that aren't voting in GOP primaries anymore or who stopped their donations to the party in the last 4-6 years and message them."  And I think he's going to have the most successful showing of any statewide Democrat in Texas (save for possibly AG).  Or he can try the old route and try and get Democrat turnout at a record high, unsuccessfully for the 37th time.  

1 million+ Texas voters will cast a general election ballot by tomorrow night.  Who are no longer party affiliated or were never.  Ignore them at your peril.  

[WBT 20653]

34 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

I see the demographic shifts favor the Democrat party, but the turnout of blue wave just focusing on existint Democrats is not working all that well.  It's making progress but it's a decade away, if not longer. 

Just like the next aggy championship

[Ghost of LL 15539]

I'm out here in Nevada this week, helping my friend who is trying to get reelected as the state's attorney general, and holy shit the political ads.  I don't think I've seen a single ad that isn't a political ad.  And every last one of them is negative--"X is too extreme for Nevada" or "Y isn't right for Nevada families."  I don't think I've ever seen a cycle like this where there genuinely isn't single positive ad out there.

[Neonmoon 38130]

8 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Another good reason to early vote.

we need to flip the naming of voting. Early voting today = voting. Voting on Election Day is procrastination or late voting.

Last Minute Voter or Deadline Voter

 

[Pato del Muerto 52571]

5 hours ago, Js1 said:

The 538 tool says if Dems win NV, they have a 75% chance of keeping the Senate.

Though there’s only a 10% chance of that. 

[Js1 85527]

3 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Though there’s only a 10% chance of that. 

The Oracle of Nevada has spoken.  Masto will win

[Ghost of LL 15539]

18 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Though there’s only a 10% chance of that. 

A 43% chance of CCM winning in Nevada.  And frankly, I think that's low.  But regardless, a 43% chance is a decent chance.

[babysdaddy 2728]

4 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

Because some of our shithole states don’t allow it.

3 out of 50 don't have it and it is ridiculous.

Alabama

Connecticut

New Hampshire

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

16 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

That Ralston dude in Nevada knows his shit:

 

I loved this tweet:

I should probably take his advice and stay far away from media tomorrow and the day after.

[Js1 85527]

1 minute ago, babysdaddy said:

3 out of 50 don't have it and it is ridiculous.

Alabama

Connecticut

New Hampshire

It's on the ballot this year in Connecticut. 

Quote

The amendment would amend the Connecticut Constitution to allow the Connecticut General Assembly to pass laws to provide for early voting in-person. Currently, the state constitution does not allow for early voting. 

Also you forgot Mississippi. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

At least it’s states whose result is already pre-determined. You won’t see Alabama go blue or Connecticut go red in a presidential race.

[Mo Horn 8853]

8 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

3 out of 50 don't have it and it is ridiculous.

Alabama

Connecticut

New Hampshire

Missouri isn't on that list because they do have no excuse absentee voting, which is really early voting. However, in Jackson County, the KC area, there are only 3 places to go do it and they're only open 8:30 - 5:00 Monday thru Friday so not very convenient. 

[YGIFS 19452]

what a weird crossover of states, that's got to be the only thing they all have in common-AL, MS, CT, NH?  Other than no pro sports teams and shitty food.  

AZ and NV close at 9:00-CST.  Oregon at 10:00p-CST.  Can't really think of any other westerly races I'm watching.  I guess McMullin in Utah, 9:00p our time.

[Satchel 6948]

On 11/4/2022 at 4:13 PM, StassneyHorn said:

Went to Catholic school my whole life and it’s a riot when I’ll connect with friends and the parents are drinking and asking “Have you heard about all this social justice being taught nowadays?”

Why yes I do. I had a semester my freshman, sophomore, and Senior year about it. You paid for it.

Me too. The social justice principles of the RCC were a focal point of my spiritual formation. If you didn’t know better, you’d think the Church was comprised of former Protestants who love all of the thou shall nots. 

[Js1 85527]

7 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

what a weird crossover of states, that's got to be the only thing they all have in common-AL, MS, CT, NH?  Other than no pro sports teams and shitty food.  

AZ and NV close at 9:00-CST.  Oregon at 10:00p-CST.  Can't really think of any other westerly races I'm watching.  I guess McMullin in Utah, 9:00p our time.

Senate-wise, it's those too.  Oregon Gov/House races.  CA House races but those will take a week + with the mail. 

[StassneyHorn 6627]

Salt Lake City and McMullin Senate results will be fun to see.

What the margins look like in Montana’s 2 districts should be interesting.

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, YGIFS said:

what a weird crossover of states, that's got to be the only thing they all have in common-AL, MS, CT, NH?  Other than no pro sports teams and shitty food.  

AZ and NV close at 9:00-CST.  Oregon at 10:00p-CST.  Can't really think of any other westerly races I'm watching.  I guess McMullin in Utah, 9:00p our time.

The 10-11 pm hour might be most interesting results wise.

[YGIFS 19452]

Looks I picked the wrong night to quit sniffing glue.  

[Voldemort86 2259]

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/final-ratings-for-the-2022-election/
 

final ratings from Sabato. They did move Nevada from toss up to lean dem. I disagree with them on Pennsylvania. I think the dems win there. I think the senate will be 50-50 if the dems hold Nevada.

[Texas73 421]

28 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/final-ratings-for-the-2022-election/
 

final ratings from Sabato. They did move Nevada from toss up to lean dem. I disagree with them on Pennsylvania. I think the dems win there. I think the senate will be 50-50 if the dems hold Nevada.

I can't believe GA is voting in Walker. People are ragarded. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

11 minutes ago, Texas73 said:

I can't believe GA is voting in Walker. People are ragarded. 

If dems win Nevada. I think Georgia will go to Walker in a run off. I still think a Georgia run off is inevitable in the Senate.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

rotten fuckin luck to have such a great candidate in PA and have him get a fuckin stroke. 

In a sane world, warnock wins by about 30.  of course, that was the world i thought i lived in in 2016.

[Voldemort86 2259]

Johnson, Vance, Walker, Oz and masters have no business winning, but this a strange world that we live in now.

I think dems retain senate by a sliver.

Edited November 8, 2022 by Voldemort86

[StassneyHorn 6627]

Some notes

GA women outvoting men by 285,000 in early vote.

Michigan women have outvoted Michigan men by 200,000 in early vote 

Registered Democrats outvoted Registered Republicans by 535,000 in Pennsylvania early voting

Registered Democrats outvoted Registered Republicans by 146,000 in North Carolina early voting

 

[StassneyHorn 6627]

One thing I haven’t thought of, and it may be better for the ex-Patriate thread, is South Dakota makes it very easy to claim domicile. It’s a small enough state where the switch to working abroad, being a nomad, wfh could affect a state that small extremely quickly.

[StassneyHorn 6627]

I mention that because Kristi Noem has terrible numbers in all her elections, and along with the Medicaid vote there could be a sneaky flip in a perfect world.  I understand it’s a senate thread and nobody else cares ha

Democrats never work the technicalities like this and this could be something in the future for them to push hard or do it quietly in nomad message boards and Reddit. South Dakota had no income tax too

[babysdaddy 2728]

Go ahead and move to SD. Let us know how much it sucks

[StassneyHorn 6627]

You literally have to show a receipt you spent one day there every 4-5 years you fucking idiot

like did you skip over every single context clue written about not having to actually be there?

Edited November 8, 2022 by StassneyHorn

[Humble Beast 258]

Some D polling firm called Data for Progress “flooding the zone” with final polls. 
 

Walker +1

Masters +1

Laxalt +2

Johnson +6

Budd +6

Vance +10

Hassan +3

 

[StassneyHorn 6627]

flooding the zone is when you have multiple shit firms, this is one org. Put some more effort into it next time

[Aqua Buddha 14600]

16 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Some notes

GA women outvoting men by 285,000 in early vote.

Michigan women have outvoted Michigan men by 200,000 in early vote 

Registered Democrats outvoted Registered Republicans by 535,000 in Pennsylvania early voting

Registered Democrats outvoted Registered Republicans by 146,000 in North Carolina early voting

 

Pussy riot.

[tx 3 putt 77336]

 

[Js1 85527]

1 minute ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

Big, if true

[Biff Tannen 45712]

Just wanted to drop in and say that Chuck Grassley will be 95 years old at the end of his term.  Ninety.  Fucking.  Five.

[YGIFS 19452]

Appropriate that Grassley was the Chair of the Senate Committee on Aging.

26 fucking years ago, when he was aging in in his 60's.  Can we assume he will now serve as the Chair on the Senate Committee on Aged. 

[G650 14273]

On 11/11/2022 at 5:22 PM, Biff Tannen said:

Just wanted to drop in and say that Chuck Grassley will be 95 years old at the end of his term.  Ninety.  Fucking.  Five.

I'm not sure he gonna make it.

[chainsaw 9873]

On 11/11/2022 at 4:22 PM, Biff Tannen said:

Just wanted to drop in and say that Chuck Grassley will be 95 years old at the end of his term.  Ninety.  Fucking.  Five.

Hopefully not

[Mo Horn 8853]

11 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Hopefully not

Won't matter. Crazy GOP governor will appoint a crazy GOPer