2022 Senate Elections

[Voldemort86 2259]

On 6/19/2022 at 11:14 AM, Snake Diggity said:

Current predictions for contested senate races:

NH: Hassan vs Bolduc: Hassan has tons more money than Bolduc and she should be able to hang on.

NV: Masto vs Laxalt: Will be close but Masto has a lot more money and should barely squeak by.

AZ: Kelly vs Lamar/Masters/Brnovich: Kelly is a good candidate and the GOP candidates are tearing each other up.  Hard to see Kelly losing unless there’s election dispute shenanigans that let the state leg interfere.

GA: Warnock vs Walker: if Warnock doesn’t win it’s the end of the world.  Warnock is a normal, functioning human being.  Walker is literally unable to speak coherently.

PA: Fetterman vs Dr Oz: Fetterman is a good candidate and Oz is a very odd fit for the maga crowd (not to mention the senate in general).  Fetterman should win handily unless he has more health problems.

FL: Demings vs Rubio: It’ll be close but Rubio will hang on.

OH: Ryan vs Vance: this currently shows leaning red but I think that GOP primary took a lot out of Vance.  It will be close.  For now smart money is on Vance but Ryan has a chance.

UT: McMullin (IND) vs Lee: The Dems got behind McMullin and this race is tightening.  Trump doesn’t appear to be all that popular in Utah.  I like McMullin and so maybe I’m just pipe dreaming but I’m hopeful there’s a chance.  Wouldn’t bet on it for now but it’s worth watching.

WI: Barnes vs Johnson: Johnson is the incumbent and Trumpers will show up for him.  Barnes is a decent candidate but not a moderate.  Close but for now it’s looking like Johnson.

NC: Beasley vs Budd: I don’t think Beasley has much of a chance here.

So that tallies up to the Dems picking up one seat.

Wish you were right, but I disagree on some of these. 
 

Nevada has been slipping further and further red. The dems always seem to pull it out, but people in Nevada have been scarred by the pandemic and are angry. Laxalt is a tough draw and should beat her.

rubio, Vance, and lee all win easily. 7-10 points.  Johnson is a psycho, but people in Wisconsin are sociopaths so he will win by 5. 
 

everything else I pretty much agree with.

[Bullneck 19434]

Mo Brooks is getting primaried?  Do I have that right? Only 3% of the vote counted, and all of it rural.

Republican Primary Runoff

Updated just now

3% REPORTED 

 

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Katie Britt	9,804	+64.4%64.4%
Mo Brooks	5,411	+35.6%35.6
Total reported	15,215

[The Dog 44734]

6 minutes ago, Bullneck said:

Mo Brooks is getting primaried?  Do I have that right? Only 3% of the vote counted, and all of it rural.

Republican Primary Runoff

Updated just now

3% REPORTED 

 

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Katie Britt	9,804	+64.4%64.4%
Mo Brooks	5,411	+35.6%35.6
Total reported	15,215

 

[Bullneck 19434]

 

See, that's how you do it.  Just say you don't accept the results.

[Bama Chick 28596]

Mo didn’t get primaried.

He was running for Richard Shelby’s vacant senate seat.

So he’s no longer in national politics.

But Katie Britt is just a prettier, less trashy, sneakier, smarter version of Boebert and Greene.

[Disco Strangler 1911]

So, Kay Bailey Hutchison?

[Satchel 6965]

https://twitter.com/LukeWarfordTX/status/1534253673412538369?s=20&t=301lew1wWDb1Ffzb6lAKUw

[Satchel 6965]

 

23 minutes ago, Satchel said:

https://twitter.com/LukeWarfordTX/status/1534253673412538369?s=20&t=301lew1wWDb1Ffzb6lAKUw

 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19276]

 

[Bullneck 19434]

^^^ Are any of these personalities Democrats?  If so, it might not be a total loss if he gets elected.

[Longhorn_Fan68 34070]

14 hours ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

 

holy shit, that's actually accidentally genius. It would actually make some sense if Jesus had DID.

[Longhorn_Fan68 34070]

meanwhile, Fetterman continuing to take that clown Oz to school

 

[tx 3 putt 78396]

[Voldemort86 2259]

How does roe being struck down change the political landscape in the upcoming senate races?

[Longhorn_Fan68 34070]

22 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

How does roe being struck down change the political landscape in the upcoming senate races?

hopefully a lot more D's win and R's lose.

[Pescado_Rojo 19545]

The Women 18-45 group is going to be interesting to watch this cycle. If they don't swing hard for Democrats this cycle, it's time to start looking at real estate in Belize or South America. 

[Dnaguy 12552]

9 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

The Women 18-45 group is going to be interesting to watch this cycle. If they don't swing hard for Democrats this cycle, it's time to start looking at real estate in Belize or South America. 

I hear Belize is nice and they speak English.

[George Clooney 378]

22 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

How does roe being struck down change the political landscape in the upcoming senate races?

https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-biden-covid-health-presidential-e50db07385831e67f866ec45402be8b9

The GOP is gaining in the suburbs and exurbs nearly everywhere, and I don't think Roe being struck down will flip many back. These voters are more concerned about gas prices, inflation, and crime. The Dems' only hope is to increase voter turnout in urban areas, but I think they'll fail to do so. That being said, Fetterman should win PA, and I think Kelly has a good chance at beating (likely) Masters. Cortez Masto is polling favorably against Laxalt (which is kind of surprising). Budd vs. Beasley in NC should be close, but I think Budd will end up winning. Herschel Walker seems to unfortunately have an edge on Warnock. Ron Johnson vs. (likely) Mandela Barnes will be very close, and I think the same is true of Vance vs. Tim Ryan in Ohio. Bolduc vs. Hassan in NH should be very close as well, but I'd give the edge to Hassan. Bennet vs. O'Dea would be very close in CO, but Bennet vs. Ron Hanks would likely give Bennet more breathing room. Every other race should be an easy win for the incumbent. 

Despite the very bad environment for the Dems, current polling indicates they won't suffer a net loss of seats. It's still likely that gas prices will continue to climb for a while, and inflation will likewise at least hold steady. Biden is a wet rag who doesn't inspire hope in Dem candidates, so the polls will likely slowly shift red in the coming months. Fortunately, many of the GOP Senate candidates are pretty weak orators who also don't inspire much confidence, so the gains might just be limited to the House for them.

 

[atomheartbevo 90489]

59 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

hopefully a lot more D's win and R's lose.

Abortion has now gone from being a few sentences in a speech or on campaign website to all but being on the ballot.

And as shitty as many Democrats are at campaigning,  Republicans can’t help themselves but talk about birth control, gay marriage, gay relationships in general.  Greedy motherfuckers don’t know how to take a win and go home and be quiet - start talking about birth control, etc., and the Republicans are going to flip some states to Dems.

[gmr548 16681]

1 hour ago, George Clooney said:

 the gains might just be limited to the House for them.

 

This would not be out of line with 2018 - where Democrats flipped a huge number of house seats, including decidedly red seats in SC, OK, etc. - but Republicans actually netted two Senate seats. I think the Democrats are probably capped at netting one Senate seat - PA is the only one that feels really winnable, I don't see how Democrats get over the line in WI or NC in this environment and with the candidates at play. But otherwise it's mostly Republicans playing defense this cycle and it isn't too crazy to imagine narrow wins for Democratic incumbents in light blue (NH and NV) or purple (AZ and GA) states. 

[The Dog 44734]

 

[The Dog 44734]

BTW I'd take that poll with a grain of salt. It's a shocking swing and is only one poll.

That said, I expect this to at least be a lifeline to Democrats who are in tight races. Republicans are spiking the ball here and it isn't a good look.

[atomheartbevo 90489]

15 minutes ago, The Dog said:

BTW I'd take that poll with a grain of salt. It's a shocking swing and is only one poll.

That said, I expect this to at least be a lifeline to Democrats who are in tight races. Republicans are spiking the ball here and it isn't a good look.

It’s not just spiking the ball, it’s talking about going after contraception.  That’s taking it to another level of shooting their dicks off or something.

[Longhorn_Fan68 34070]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It’s not just spiking the ball, it’s talking about going after contraception.  That’s taking it to another level of shooting their dicks off or something.

let them. I hope they continue to shit in their own faces and young people never vote R ever in their lives. burn that party to the ground. it's either that or the whole US. pick one

Edited June 27, 2022 by Longhorn_Fan68

[Voldemort86 2259]

15 hours ago, George Clooney said:

https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-biden-covid-health-presidential-e50db07385831e67f866ec45402be8b9

The GOP is gaining in the suburbs and exurbs nearly everywhere, and I don't think Roe being struck down will flip many back. These voters are more concerned about gas prices, inflation, and crime. The Dems' only hope is to increase voter turnout in urban areas, but I think they'll fail to do so. That being said, Fetterman should win PA, and I think Kelly has a good chance at beating (likely) Masters. Cortez Masto is polling favorably against Laxalt (which is kind of surprising). Budd vs. Beasley in NC should be close, but I think Budd will end up winning. Herschel Walker seems to unfortunately have an edge on Warnock. Ron Johnson vs. (likely) Mandela Barnes will be very close, and I think the same is true of Vance vs. Tim Ryan in Ohio. Bolduc vs. Hassan in NH should be very close as well, but I'd give the edge to Hassan. Bennet vs. O'Dea would be very close in CO, but Bennet vs. Ron Hanks would likely give Bennet more breathing room. Every other race should be an easy win for the incumbent. 

Despite the very bad environment for the Dems, current polling indicates they won't suffer a net loss of seats. It's still likely that gas prices will continue to climb for a while, and inflation will likewise at least hold steady. Biden is a wet rag who doesn't inspire hope in Dem candidates, so the polls will likely slowly shift red in the coming months. Fortunately, many of the GOP Senate candidates are pretty weak orators who also don't inspire much confidence, so the gains might just be limited to the House for them.

 

It just doesn’t add up to me. I personally think that inflation would be just as bad, if not worse if we had Trump in office instead of Biden. The problems we are experiencing today were an inevitable reaction or hang over if you will of the pandemic and all of the shut downs.

The other side of the coin is what solutions are republicans proposing? How would they make it better?  Do we live in a country where 80-90% of people vote based off emotion and not logic or thinking things through?

[Dnaguy 12552]

2 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

It just doesn’t add up to me. I personally think that inflation would be just as bad, if not worse if we had Trump in office instead of Biden. The problems we are experiencing today were an inevitable reaction or hang over if you will of the pandemic and all of the shut downs.

The other side of the coin is what solutions are republicans proposing? How would they make it better?  Do we live in a country where 80-90% of people vote based off emotion and not logic or thinking things through?

Brah?!

You know the answer.

1.) None

2.) Uh, yeah.

The pandemic is over. If you talk about it, then you’re just making an excuse.

But also Remember the mask mandates, virtual learning, and vaccine mandates!

Also wasn’t that like 10 years ago?

January 6th was a protest with some folks getting carried away.

january 6th was actually an inside job by liberals and Antifa.

What’s January 6th?

Uvalde was a tragedy, but what can you do?

Uvalde was bad but we have mental health issues not gun issues.

Uvalde was not what they say it was.

Whats a Uvalde?

Its Bidens fault for _________.

 

 

[Gap03 3374]

2 hours ago, Dnaguy said:

Brah?!

You know the answer.

1.) None

2.) Uh, yeah.

The pandemic is over. If you talk about it, then you’re just making an excuse.

But also Remember the mask mandates, virtual learning, and vaccine mandates!

Also wasn’t that like 10 years ago?

January 6th was a protest with some folks getting carried away.

january 6th was actually an inside job by liberals and Antifa.

What’s January 6th?

Uvalde was a tragedy, but what can you do?

Uvalde was bad but we have mental health issues not gun issues.

Uvalde was not what they say it was.

Whats a Uvalde?

Its Bidens fault for _________.

 

Absolutely.  

We don't engage in intellectually honest analysis of tough issues.  We deal in 5-second sound bites repeated over and over to drown out reasonable discussion.

[SydneyCarton 49213]

6 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

It just doesn’t add up to me. I personally think that inflation would be just as bad, if not worse if we had Trump in office instead of Biden. The problems we are experiencing today were an inevitable reaction or hang over if you will of the pandemic and all of the shut downs.

The other side of the coin is what solutions are republicans proposing? How would they make it better?  Do we live in a country where 80-90% of people vote based off emotion and not logic or thinking things through?

Is this a serious question?

[George Clooney 378]

9 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

It just doesn’t add up to me. I personally think that inflation would be just as bad, if not worse if we had Trump in office instead of Biden. The problems we are experiencing today were an inevitable reaction or hang over if you will of the pandemic and all of the shut downs.

The other side of the coin is what solutions are republicans proposing? How would they make it better?  Do we live in a country where 80-90% of people vote based off emotion and not logic or thinking things through?

The Biden admin did contribute to inflation with the American Rescue Plan Act, but yes much of it was beyond their control. However, they have been woefully bad in regard to energy policy, and it’s definitely fair to blame them for the astronomical rise in gas prices.

[Js1 86764]

24 minutes ago, George Clooney said:

The Biden admin did contribute to inflation with the American Rescue Plan Act, but yes much of it was beyond their control. However, they have been woefully bad in regard to energy policy, and it’s definitely fair to blame them for the astronomical rise in gas prices.

Ah yes, that damn button under the Resolute Desk that automatically pushes up gas prices. He just keeps pushing it! 

[Pescado_Rojo 19545]

26 minutes ago, George Clooney said:

The Biden admin did contribute to inflation with the American Rescue Plan Act, but yes much of it was beyond their control. However, they have been woefully bad in regard to energy policy, and it’s definitely fair to blame them for the astronomical rise in gas prices.

I'm gonna need you to show your work here. 

[Pig Bellmont 8856]

lol at suburban women caring more about gas prices than IVF being criminalized, or going to jail for child endangerment/murder in case of a miscarriage. 
 

Or I guess I could have said “tell me you don’t have any women in your life without telling me you don’t have any women in your life”

[MonkeyDoughnut 10757]

4 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I'm gonna need you to show your work here. 

I mean...you can bad mouth oil companies and throw them under the bus and tell them you're speeding up the changeover to electric cars and renewable energy....but when you need them to ramp up production quickly to stabilize crude prices don't be surprised if they opt to hold steady and not risk a sudden price drop by doing so.   

[DixonHur 11923]

4 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

I mean...you can bad mouth oil companies and throw them under the bus and tell them you're speeding up the changeover to electric cars and renewable energy....but when you need them to ramp up production quickly to stabilize crude prices don't be surprised if they opt to hold steady and not risk a sudden price drop by doing so.   

That's a red herring.  They couldn't significantly ramp up production even if they wanted to.  The oil companies permanently closed 5 or so refineries during the peak of COVID and the remaining ones are running at 95% capacity 24/365.

[Gap03 3374]

Additional generic polling data is rolling in.  If the red / purple states continue to do stupid shit on the abortion front, November could be interesting.

 

[George Clooney 378]

26 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I'm gonna need you to show your work here. 

https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/a-sobering-view-of-high-fuel-prices-green-energy-and-bidens-plans-to-help-europe
 

Imperfect article, but essentially the transition to renewable energy is rocky and Russia’s invasion has complicated things. Again, it’s not all on Biden’s admin, but the swing voters just care about prices and he doesn’t inspire confidence in the lay public.

[Al_4_ISU 12609]

On 6/8/2022 at 9:17 AM, Gil Bang said:

Iowa could get interesting.  Grassley is what, 90?  

Mike Franken won the Dem primary last night.  Retired 3-star admiral from Sioux City.

Grassley has been catching shit in town halls.  Looks like Iowans realize that he's a senile old fuck, and they're starting to push back a bit.  It's a longshot, but I've got my fingers crossed. 

I haven't been more excited to vote for someone in well over a decade.  Franken is running a really smart campaign right now.  This ad in particular is fucking brilliant.

https://twitter.com/FrankenforIowa/status/1537543733088071685?s=20&t=AIHB_niM_ykf4DoVZTqqLg

Edited June 28, 2022 by Al_4_ISU

[Al_4_ISU 12609]

One of Grassley's biggest weaknesses is the worst kept secret in Iowa is that the only reason he's running is so he can retire shortly after the start of the next term, and the Republican Governor of Iowa can handpick his successor.  It just so happens that his grandson, Pat, is the Speaker of the Iowa House.

Franken hasn't started in on the nepotism angle, but it's one I think can still be effective in a state that was oddly and proudly independent and "purple" prior to Trump.

[George Clooney 378]

23 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

lol at suburban women caring more about gas prices than IVF being criminalized, or going to jail for child endangerment/murder in case of a miscarriage. 
 

Or I guess I could have said “tell me you don’t have any women in your life without telling me you don’t have any women in your life”

I’m generally a pessimist when it comes to the DNC’s ability to hammer rhetoric, but I’m happy to be proven wrong. The onus is now on the party to communicate that rhetoric to each candidate’s campaign.

I’m also gay, so yes the only anger I’ve heard from women in my life has come from friends. We also have to face the reality that most of this anger people like us hear day to day is coming from women (and men secondarily) who are solidly middle class and up. I’ve said the Dems will do fine in Senate races, but the House races are currently mysterious at best.

[George Clooney 378]

3 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

One of Grassley's biggest weaknesses is the worst kept secret in Iowa is that the only reason he's running is so he can retire shortly after the start of the next term, and the Republican Governor of Iowa can handpick his successor.  It just so happens that his grandson, Pat, is the Speaker of the Iowa House.

Franken hasn't started in on the nepotism angle, but it's one I think can still be effective in a state that was oddly and proudly independent and "purple" prior to Trump.

Tbh I missed Iowa because I just assumed Grassley had a safe path to victory there. Speaking of the Governor, do you think she’s DeSantis’ number one pick for VP in two years?

[Al_4_ISU 12609]

10 minutes ago, George Clooney said:

Tbh I missed Iowa because I just assumed Grassley had a safe path to victory there. Speaking of the Governor, do you think she’s DeSantis’ number one pick for VP in two years?

I think she's 100% angling for something at the Federal level.  I'm not sure what that is.

She's starting to push so hard to the right - particularly in her war on public education - that she's more vulnerable than expected.  She's only won election once, and did it by a razor thin margin in 2018 against an absolute wet blanket of a Democrat candidate.  I don't know that the current Dem candidate can overcome rural racism, but she's got a better chance than the guy in '18.

Reynolds dodged a bullet when our Democrat State Auditor didn't run for governor this cycle.  He's a young white guy from BFE northeast Iowa that likes to deer hunt.  Difficult to paint as a big city liberal who doesn't understand rural voters.

[MonkeyDoughnut 10757]

50 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

That's a red herring.  They couldn't significantly ramp up production even if they wanted to.  The oil companies permanently closed 5 or so refineries during the peak of COVID and the remaining ones are running at 95% capacity 24/365.

And why do you think those shut down, a couple of which could have been restarted but are not going to be.  They see the writing on the wall (or yelled at them).. the transition is happening and they don't feel a need to "help out".

[gmr548 16681]

let them. I hope they continue to shit in their own faces and young people never vote R ever in their lives. burn that party to the ground. it's either that or the whole US. pick one

As a relative youth still, aware of how much the status quo sucks and got us here:

[DixonHur 11923]

1 hour ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

And why do you think those shut down, a couple of which could have been restarted but are not going to be.  They see the writing on the wall (or yelled at them).. the transition is happening and they don't feel a need to "help out".

They haven't built a meaningful refinery since the 70's so I guess that writing has been on the wall for a while.

#butBiden

Edited June 28, 2022 by DixonHur

[Longhorn_Fan68 34070]

33 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

As a relative youth still, aware of how much the status quo sucks and got us here:

both is not possible. one will give way to the other. either the R party dies as it should, or America does. there really cannot be both

[Mdhorn 6148]

Chelsea went scorched earth:

And she saved some of her harshest commentary for House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who claims that if Republicans retake control of Congress in the midterm elections, they will work to “save as many lives as possible.”

Handler had a quick fact-check.

“Just as long as that life doesn’t need baby formula, affordable health care or a place to learn without getting shot,” she said, then added:

“By the way, Kevin McCarthy, since you mentioned it, let’s talk about what it means to be pro-life. Universal health care, that’s pro-life. Restricting guns, that’s also pro-life. Fighting climate change, that’s also pro-life. Listening to doctors during a pandemic, also pro-life. Not forcing women to give birth like livestock: pro-life. But your party opposes all of those things.”

“Calling Republicans pro-life is like calling O.J. Simpson pro-wife,” she concluded.

 

[elfenix 34636]

wonder what the 'learn english!' crowd thinks about dr. oz's knowledge of alphabet*

 

*joke's on me not a one of them has cracked a dictionary since junior high

 

[Gil Bang 26170]

good news

 

 

 

[The Dog 44734]

16 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

good news

 

 

 

Dang!

Pretty big swing from the last Quinnipac poll: (Kemp and Abrams are tied in that same poll btw)

Edited June 29, 2022 by The Dog

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19276]

23 hours ago, DixonHur said:

They haven't built a meaningful refinery since the 70's so I guess that writing has been on the wall for a while.

#butBiden

I guess Motiva's Port Arthur plant building a new crude unit that came online in 2012 and doubled the refinery capacity (up to 635k bbls per day) isn't meaningful, eh?

It also cost $12B.

Edited June 29, 2022 by PenelopeWitherspoon