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2022 Senate Elections

Ghost of LL

By Ghost of LL
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DixonHur

DixonHur 11233

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2 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I guess Motiva's Port Arthur plant building a new crude unit that came online in 2012 and doubled the refinery capacity (up to 635k bbls per day) isn't meaningful, eh?

It also cost $12B.

That was an expansion not a new facility.

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That “majority” has been remembered as something that never actually existed. Let's clear that all up, shall we? Starting January 2009, at the beginning of the 111th Congress, in the month that Bara

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I'd pay good money to watch Big John Fetterman beat Steve Bannon to death with Roger Stone. 

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28 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

good news

 

 

 

Was scrolling through this thinking how unreal it is that Herschel Walker is a candidate for Senator. 

Donald Trump
Herschel Walker
Tommy Tuberville
Dr. Oz

I'm sensing a weird pattern on that side of the aisle.

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GopherRock

GopherRock 1765

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This batch of Senate elections is all about Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Get those flipped and Manchin and Sinema don't matter.

Other than Mark Kelly, Big John is the best candidate of any Democrat anywhere on the board.  

I would say that the cheeseheads next door are dumb enough to send Ron Johnson back. However, the GOP has gone on something of a losing streak over there. Ron and TFG represent the last Republican statewide wins there.

Then the pickings get slim. North Carolina? Maybe. Cal Cunningham shanked this one away when he couldn't keep his pants zipped up.  Val Demings in Florida and Mike Franken in Iowa are great candidates, but those states have gone red unless and until proven otherwise. Ditto for Ohio. That said, I would LOVE to be wrong here. 

The Missouri GOP is going to send out Eric Greitens. In any other state, that would be prime flip territory. 

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Gil Bang

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7 hours ago, GopherRock said:

This batch of Senate elections is all about Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Get those flipped and Manchin and Sinema don't matter.

Other than Mark Kelly, Big John is the best candidate of any Democrat anywhere on the board.  

I would say that the cheeseheads next door are dumb enough to send Ron Johnson back. However, the GOP has gone on something of a losing streak over there. Ron and TFG represent the last Republican statewide wins there.

Then the pickings get slim. North Carolina? Maybe. Cal Cunningham shanked this one away when he couldn't keep his pants zipped up.  Val Demings in Florida and Mike Franken in Iowa are great candidates, but those states have gone red unless and until proven otherwise. Ditto for Ohio. That said, I would LOVE to be wrong here. 

The Missouri GOP is going to send out Eric Greitens. In any other state, that would be prime flip territory. 

Demings is really, really interesting.  She's running against a total pussy, and, as a lifelong cop, she's immune to the usual GOP "Dems want to defund the police" bullshit. But, she's a bit darker than the average cuban. 

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Sawbonz

Sawbonz 27443

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3 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

Demings is really, really interesting.  She's running against a total pussy, and, as a lifelong cop, she's immune to the usual GOP "Dems want to defund the police" bullshit. But, she's a bit darker than the average cuban. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16518

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This batch of Senate elections is all about Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Get those flipped and Manchin and Sinema don't matter.
Other than Mark Kelly, Big John is the best candidate of any Democrat anywhere on the board.  
I would say that the cheeseheads next door are dumb enough to send Ron Johnson back. However, the GOP has gone on something of a losing streak over there. Ron and TFG represent the last Republican statewide wins there.
Then the pickings get slim. North Carolina? Maybe. Cal Cunningham shanked this one away when he couldn't keep his pants zipped up.  Val Demings in Florida and Mike Franken in Iowa are great candidates, but those states have gone red unless and until proven otherwise. Ditto for Ohio. That said, I would LOVE to be wrong here. 
The Missouri GOP is going to send out Eric Greitens. In any other state, that would be prime flip territory. 

It’s also about holding AZ, GA, NV, and NH. Absolutely have to go at least 3/4 there to have any chance of even retaining the status quo; and really need to go 4/4 because these are the only two flip opportunities, and WI is probably a long shot.
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The Dog

The Dog 43813

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7 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Quinnipiac is the biggest liberal bias poll out there to be fair. I remember they had some democrats winning Florida by 6 or 7 points polls which ended up being totally wrong and disappointingly misleading.

It's relevant because their previous poll had Walker ahead by 1 (statistical tie due to margin of error). 

The Governor's race is a statistical tie in both the previous and most recent Quinnipac polls. 

It's probably an outlier that Warnock is ahead by that much but I doubt it is in the sense that Walker is imploding.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89453

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9 hours ago, The Dog said:

but I doubt it is in the sense that Walker is imploding.

His people were not even able to spin the various extra kids all that well.  They didn’t even try.

Friend in Georgia joked that people are waiting for the other shoe to drop with Walker, like the extra kids aren’t the worst thing.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

His people were not even able to spin the various extra kids all that well.  They didn’t even try.

Friend in Georgia joked that people are waiting for the other shoe to drop with Walker, like the extra kids aren’t the worst thing.

The Georgia dems aren’t as incompetent as Texas or Florida dems so I expect them to find something on Walker that both hurts and sticks. The Georgia Democratic Party does more with less. It’s still a decently Republican state, but they have been winning some battles lately.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15493

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It's really hard to say who has the worse candidate--the Republicans in Georgia or the Republicans in Pennsylvania.  Yeah, Walker is a trainwreck.  But Oz has a negative approval rating in Pennsylvania among Republicans.  That's hard to do.

That being said, it's really hard to see where the Dems can pick up the one more they need to make Manchin/Sinema irrelevant.  As much as I want to believe in Wisconsin, I just don't believe in Wisconsin.

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Sawbonz

Sawbonz 27443

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27 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

It's really hard to say who has the worse candidate--the Republicans in Georgia or the Republicans in Pennsylvania.  Yeah, Walker is a trainwreck.  But Oz has a negative approval rating in Pennsylvania among Republicans.  That's hard to do.

That being said, it's really hard to see where the Dems can pick up the one more they need to make Manchin/Sinema irrelevant.  As much as I want to believe in Wisconsin, I just don't believe in Wisconsin.

Wisconsin has to gotv in the cities. The suburbs and rural areas make the texas coast look downright moderate

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45500

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1 hour ago, Sawbonz said:

Wisconsin has to gotv in the cities. The suburbs and rural areas make the texas coast look downright moderate

WisDems has done a great job.  They definitely gotv, but who knows if it will be enough in this shitshow of a timeline.

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gmr548

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Tim Ryan is not going to beat JD Vance but seeing the May results up against July is another data point indicating that the political environment may have improved a bit for Democrats over the last couple months.
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GopherRock

GopherRock 1765

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9 hours ago, Pancho said:

 

Show me a poll like this in October and I'll believe it. Florida, Iowa, and Ohio have turned into red states and will remain that way unless and until proven otherwise.

As for the cheeseheads, I don't trust them either, but the GOP is now on a statewide losing streak over there. TFG and Ron Johnson in 2016 are the last red wins.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15493

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9 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

Show me a poll like this in October and I'll believe it. Florida, Iowa, and Ohio have turned into red states and will remain that way unless and until proven otherwise.

As for the cheeseheads, I don't trust them either, but the GOP is now on a statewide losing streak over there. TFG and Ron Johnson in 2016 are the last red wins.

I agree.  Ohio is a red state.  And I am real suspicious of Ryan's chances.

That being said, a few things are conspiring to put the Democrats in much better position than they should be given the underlying fundamentals.  In a world in which they have an unpopular president presiding over an economy in recession and a dissatisfied base, the Democrats should be getting wiped out in the midterms.  They're not because of three things:

1) Poor candidate recruitment by the GOP, and the nomination of candidates who are unattractive to independents (e.g., Vance) and low approval even within the party (e.g., Oz); 

2) Overreach by SCOTUS.  Unpopular policies have electoral consequences.  Usually that works to the detriment of the party that holds the presidency.  But now that we live under the Dictatorship of the Judges, that works to the detriment of the party that holds a majority on the Court.

3) A favorable map, which presents the GOP with very few realistic pick-up opportunities (i.e., Georgia, Arizona, very maybe New Hampshire) and the Democrats with a number of realistic opportunities (i.e., Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida).

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The Dog

The Dog 43813

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9 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Wish that was legit.  I’ve kind of given up on places like Florida, Iowa, and Ohio. At least Arizona and Georgia are trending in the dems direction tho.

 

2 hours ago, gmr548 said:


Tim Ryan is not going to beat JD Vance but seeing the May results up against July is another data point indicating that the political environment may have improved a bit for Democrats over the last couple months.

 

1 hour ago, GopherRock said:

Show me a poll like this in October and I'll believe it. Florida, Iowa, and Ohio have turned into red states and will remain that way unless and until proven otherwise.

As for the cheeseheads, I don't trust them either, but the GOP is now on a statewide losing streak over there. TFG and Ron Johnson in 2016 are the last red wins.

This poll is obviously got some bias but the only other poll on RCP had Vance up 3 (42-39) and within the margin of error - a statistical tie. This may be more of a race than y'all realize. 

1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

I agree.  Ohio is a red state.  And I am real suspicious of Ryan's chances.

That being said, a few things are conspiring to put the Democrats in much better position than they should be given the underlying fundamentals.  In a world in which they have an unpopular president presiding over an economy in recession and a dissatisfied base, the Democrats should be getting wiped out in the midterms.  They're not because of three things:

1) Poor candidate recruitment by the GOP, and the nomination of candidates who are unattractive to independents (e.g., Vance) and low approval even within the party (e.g., Oz); 

2) Overreach by SCOTUS.  Unpopular policies have electoral consequences.  Usually that works to the detriment of the party that holds the presidency.  But now that we live under the Dictatorship of the Judges, that works to the detriment of the party that holds a majority on the Court.

3) A favorable map, which presents the GOP with very few realistic pick-up opportunities (i.e., Georgia, Arizona, very maybe New Hampshire) and the Democrats with a number of realistic opportunities (i.e., Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida).

All of this - especially #1. Remember that all politics are local and some of these candidates are truly awful and have no ability to expand beyond the kooky base. 

Edited by The Dog
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13414

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I can understand WI electing a republican to the senate but Johnson is a kook on the level of MTG.  Cruz can come across just as bad but I almost give Cruz credit that everything he does is in self interest and he knows he's full of bs. Johnson appears to be a true believer in his statements.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15493

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11 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I can understand WI electing a republican to the senate but Johnson is a kook on the level of MTG.  Cruz can come across just as bad but I almost give Cruz credit that everything he does is in self interest and he knows he's full of bs. Johnson appears to be a true believer in his statements.

Johnson has always been a right-winger.  And a bit stupid.  But I distinctly feel like he wasn't publicly batshit crazy until about 2019.  That is to say that I think he has become a very bad candidate over time in a way that he wasn't when he was first elected in 2010 and re-elected in 2016.

A couple other things about Johnson:

1) He's only ever been elected in very Republican-favorable elections (which is true of the other Republican senators elected in 2010).  Pat Toomey is the only other one of that group who is in a remotely competitive state, and he notably is not running for reelection.

Johnson has never run in an environment that was even close to neutral.  But as I point out above and for reasons somewhat unique to this election cycle, this looks like it is going to end up being close to a neutral environment.  And that doesn't bode particularly well for Johnson.

2) That's because Johnson has never done particularly well even in 2010 and 2016, which were very favorable to Republicans.  In 2010, which was a wave election, he beat Feingold 52-47.  That's a pretty healthy margin.  But it's not exactly a landslide in a cycle that was R+9 over normal.  And his 2016 reelection of 50-47 over Feingold was even less impressive.  

He's not a really formidable incumbent, tbh.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13414

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7 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Johnson has always been a right-winger.  And a bit stupid.  But I distinctly feel like he wasn't publicly batshit crazy until about 2019.  That is to say that I think he has become a very bad candidate over time in a way that he wasn't when he was first elected in 2010 and re-elected in 2016.

A couple other things about Johnson:

1) He's only ever been elected in very Republican-favorable elections (which is true of the other Republican senators elected in 2010).  Pat Toomey is the only other one of that group who is in a remotely competitive state, and he notably is not running for reelection.

Johnson has never run in an environment that was even close to neutral.  But as I point out above and for reasons somewhat unique to this election cycle, this looks like it is going to end up being close to a neutral environment.  And that doesn't bode particularly well for Johnson.

2) That's because Johnson has never done particularly well even in 2010 and 2016, which were very favorable to Republicans.  In 2010, which was a wave election, he beat Feingold 52-47.  That's a pretty healthy margin.  But it's not exactly a landslide in a cycle that was R+9 over normal.  And his 2016 reelection of 50-47 over Feingold was even less impressive.  

He's not a really formidable incumbent, tbh.

good points. And in 2016, Hillary effectively ignored WI and Trump focused on it. I assume both helped Johnson.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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8 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

Dr. Oz has disappeared.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/07/dr-oz-gop-pennsylvania-senate-00044483

“In the meantime, the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s independent expenditure has been providing air cover for Oz since June, labeling Fetterman as a far-left ally of Sen. Bernie Sanders and highlighting high gas prices on television.”
 

god help any idiot who believes Fetterman is like Bernie and Biden / Fetterman are solely to blame for gas prices. The GOP is really going for that uneducated, live in a trailer, while working at Walmart vote.

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