2022 Senate Elections

[WBT 20867]

14 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

I am a bit surprised that more seniors aren't GQP.  From personal observation, it's among the most reliable indicators.

It doesn't say what percentage of seniors are Republican

[atomheartbevo 90495]

On 7/7/2022 at 8:49 AM, Ghost of LL said:

That being said, a few things are conspiring to put the Democrats in much better position than they should be given the underlying fundamentals.  In a world in which they have an unpopular president presiding over an economy in recession and a dissatisfied base, the Democrats should be getting wiped out in the midterms.  They're not because of three things:

#4 How many Trump voters did COVID wipe out?

[chainsaw 10216]

6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

#4 How many Trump voters did COVID wipe out?

if someone knows where the math on this is, I'm quite interested in it

[babysdaddy 2731]

3 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

if someone knows where the math on this is, I'm quite interested in it

I did some back of the napkin math and posted it somewhere on this board a year or so ago.  It was not going to move the needle one way or the other from an election standpoint. 

[Satchel 6965]

I’m sure if we keep trying, we can wish ourselves into a full blown recession.

[chainsaw 10216]

2 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

I did some back of the napkin math and posted it somewhere on this board a year or so ago.  It was not going to move the needle one way or the other from an election standpoint. 

Which election are we talkin here? I think it can matter in a lot of those swing districts.

[henrygandorf 29214]

On 7/7/2022 at 10:43 PM, Voldemort86 said:

“In the meantime, the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s independent expenditure has been providing air cover for Oz since June, labeling Fetterman as a far-left ally of Sen. Bernie Sanders and highlighting high gas prices on television.”
 

god help any idiot who believes Fetterman is like Bernie and Biden / Fetterman are solely to blame for gas prices. The GOP is really going for that uneducated, live in a trailer, while working at Walmart vote.

yeah, this just in - republicans don't win elections by telling you about themselves and their ideas.  they win elections by lying about their opponents.

[gmr548 16681]

4 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

I am a bit surprised that more seniors aren't GQP.  From personal observation, it's among the most reliable indicators.

The wording was that the impression from Democrats was that 40% of Republicans are seniors. So, that doesn't necessarily clash with seniors leaning Republican. 

Only like 15-20% of the population is 65 or older. It would be mathematically impossible for  the GOP to have any state-level or national electoral success relying so heavily on such a small portion of the population. Republicans generally do worse as you go down the age ladder, but it doesn't start getting real ugly for them until you get under 40.

Anecdotally, older Gen Xers that came of age in the Reagan era and younger boomers that came of age after JFK (think like the 50-60 crowd) have often stood out to me as heavily Republican leaning when polls get that granular with age breakouts.

Edited July 12, 2022 by gmr548

[Bullneck 19437]

 

 

[Ghost of LL 15660]

14 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

#4 How many Trump voters did COVID wipe out?

I don't know, and I'd like to see some math on that.  It's not how many Trump voters COVID killed; it's how many Trump voters died vis-a-vis Biden voters.  And I don't think the delta was particularly high early in the pandemic.  But by the middle of 2021, that difference had to be huge.  

Nationally, I don't think it makes much of a difference.  But I could see it making a difference in a real close race (e.g., Georgia).

[gmr548 16681]

18 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I don't know, and I'd like to see some math on that.  It's not how many Trump voters COVID killed; it's how many Trump voters died vis-a-vis Biden voters.  And I don't think the delta was particularly high early in the pandemic.  But by the middle of 2021, that difference had to be huge.  

Nationally, I don't think it makes much of a difference.  But I could see it making a difference in a real close race (e.g., Georgia).

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

AZ, MI, NV, PA, and GA are the five swing states with the highest death rates. AZ stands out at a little over 400 per 100k, the rest are 350-370. The age profile and vaccine refusal of COVID victims are decidely Republican attributes, but there are also racial disparities in the death toll due to socioeconomic factors; all of these states have significant black and/or hispanic populations.

Also, these states ranged from 11k deaths (NV) to 45k (PA). Even if you assume 75% of victims were voters (maybe not that high but not crazy to think it would be above gen pop due to age) and a 60-40 tilt towards Trump voters (made up for the sake of an example - personally doubt the number could be any higher than this but I've never seen it quantified either), we're talking < 7,000 net Trump votes in PA. About 4,500 net Trump votes in AZ, which would be the highest number relative to population due to the high death rate, and I am not sure that 60% estimate would be accurate given the impact on the Latino community.

I don't think that is going to move the needle.

[atomheartbevo 90495]

DeSantis won by 33,000 votes in 2018.   

Florida had COVID 76,000 deaths.  Toss in people affected by COVID directly or indirectly (death of a spouse or other relative) who may have changed their tune on the Republican attitude that it’s no big deal deal or a conspiracy to harm Trump’s re-election chances. Seems like some of this could have an impact, even if it’s not much.  

And I’d imagine that older and more rural communities would be affected more.  

Toss in deaths from old age between 2018 and late 2022 (of course people moved to Florida in that time as well), and factor it into other states.

 

[Js1 86776]

It’s pretty overblown, I think 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

i would think the difference of votes based on the raw number of deaths probably wouldn't rank in the top 50 things influencing an election.  if you start counting the stuff @atomheartbevo is talking about -- secondary effects of the dead -- it could be real.  

 

i posted this way back when, but if you assume 1,000,000 deaths, a 75% voter rate, and a 2-1 R to D difference in deaths (the latter being very very very unsupported, most obvious because the first way struck densely populated areas very badly and the later waves hit rural America worse, see below), you are talking about a quarter million votes net gain by D's nation wide.  That's 570 votes per congressional district.  3 of the 538 folks in congress (house plus senate) fell within that margin.  

 

I think the real effect is even smaller or maybe even favors R.  1) D v R deaths are probably way closer to a 50-50 split total because early pre-vaccine deaths were urban. 2) It isn't an even distribution at all, and most R deaths occurred where there is no chance that anyone other than an R would win (see right portion of bottom graph for post-vaccine deaths).  The same is probably not true for Ds, although I don't really have any data for this, because it seems to me that D deaths would not be concentrated on areas where Ds will undoubtedly win because those were the safest areas for Covid because of extremely high vaccination rates.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Js1 86776]

What does a few death of their own voters matter if you pass hundreds of bills that limit the turnout of the other side?  Vote suppression of the other side is a great way to ensure killing your voter base doesn't hurt you in the end.

[babysdaddy 2731]

16 hours ago, chainsaw said:

Which election are we talkin here? I think it can matter in a lot of those swing districts.

I looked at florida.  There was (still is) some wishcasting by some folks that enough Republican florida voters would die that it would be back in play for Dems.  I broke down age and race deaths and then allocated those numbers based on registered R vs D by same metrics and it didn't make a difference.

[chainsaw 10216]

Just now, babysdaddy said:

I looked at florida.  There was (still is) some wishcasting by some folks that enough Republican florida voters would die that it would be back in play for Dems.  I broke down age and race deaths and then allocated those numbers based on registered R vs D by same metrics and it didn't make a difference.

In statewide elections you could be right. Florida was trending right but it has more to do with gusanos than the olds.

[SydneyCarton 49222]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

DeSantis won by 33,000 votes in 2018.   

Florida had COVID 76,000 deaths.  Toss in people affected by COVID directly or indirectly (death of a spouse or other relative) who may have changed their tune on the Republican attitude that it’s no big deal deal or a conspiracy to harm Trump’s re-election chances. Seems like some of this could have an impact, even if it’s not much.  

And I’d imagine that older and more rural communities would be affected more.  

Toss in deaths from old age between 2018 and late 2022 (of course people moved to Florida in that time as well), and factor it into other states.

 

His popularity in Florida has skyrocketed since the last election. It's early but polling shows him crushing whoever the Dems put up against him, be it Crist or the other guy. 

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

His popularity in Florida has skyrocketed since the last election. It's early but polling shows him crushing whoever the Dems put up against him, be it Crist or the other guy. 

Has there ever been a faster fall from grace than Andrew Gillum? Came close to being the governor, then a sex scandal soon after he lost, and now under indictment for conspiracy/fraud.

 

[gmr548 16681]

Has there ever been a faster fall from grace than Andrew Gillum? Came close to being the governor, then a sex scandal soon after he lost, and now under indictment for conspiracy/fraud.
 

Texas football

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Texas football

But we have Salt-N-Pepa, Jetpack guy, a carnival before the game, and a south endzone that's always empty!

Oh wait, you mean the actual product on the field too.

[Fudge Nuggets 19399]

18 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

#4 How many Trump voters did COVID wipe out?

Not enough. 

[atomheartbevo 90495]

1 hour ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Has there ever been a faster fall from grace than Andrew Gillum? Came close to being the governor, then a sex scandal soon after he lost, and now under indictment for conspiracy/fraud.

43 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Texas football

[henrygandorf 29214]

 

[DixonHur 11924]

No way his campaign lets him near a debate stage. 

But if they do...

[Voldemort86 2259]

8 hours ago, DixonHur said:

No way his campaign lets him near a debate stage. 

But if they do...

It should be viewed as a negative that ANY candidate running for public office refuses to debate their opponent. People will not care and vote for him because of the R by his name. Politics are so disgusting in this day and age.

[Longhorn_Fan68 34070]

bahahahaha. I wish I could vote for Fetterman. He's awesome

 

[Zonahorn 8079]

 

[Longhorn_Fan68 34070]

15 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

 

Now THAT is using campaign funds wisely

[Ghost of LL 15660]

Fetterman's going to troll his way to the Senate.  And I'm kind of here for it.

[HenryJames 67051]

3 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Fetterman's going to troll his way to the Senate.  And I'm kind of here for it.

It’s fucking great.

[Pancho 46000]

AARP poll released today:

Warnock - 50%
rocks for brains - 47%

 

Warnock leads with indy voters, 48-45

[GopherRock 1773]

Fetterman is such a yinzer that I can sense it from 900 miles upwind. And I'm with LL, all for the trolling of Dr Oz.

[Gil Bang 26172]

9 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

Fetterman is such a yinzer that I can sense it from 900 miles upwind. And I'm with LL, all for the trolling of Dr Oz.

I built a medical complex in York PA, so I've spent a little time there, but I don't get the "Yinzer" and the rest of the shit Fetterman tweets.  WTF does all that mean? 

[TwiceHorn 31957]

28 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

I built a medical complex in York PA, so I've spent a little time there, but I don't get the "Yinzer" and the rest of the shit Fetterman tweets.  WTF does all that mean? 

"Yinz" is a contraction of "you uns."  To them, it's like "y'all" or "youse guys."

Y'all as a contraction of you all makes so much more sense and is so much easier on the ears.

A yinzer is one who uses that semi-Appalachian western PA dialect.

[Dnaguy 12552]

6 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

"Yinz" is a contraction of "you uns."  To them, it's like "y'all" or "youse guys."

Y'all as a contraction of you all makes so much more sense and is so much easier on the ears.

A yinzer is one who uses that semi-Appalachian western PA dialect.

 

[Pescado_Rojo 19545]

8 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

"Yinz" is a contraction of "you uns."  To them, it's like "y'all" or "youse guys."

Y'all as a contraction of you all makes so much more sense and is so much easier on the ears.

A yinzer is one who uses that semi-Appalachian western PA dialect.

9 hours ago, Pancho said:

AARP poll released today:

Warnock - 50%
rocks for brains - 47%

 

Warnock leads with indy voters, 48-45

It's shameful that it's that close. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

It's shameful that it's that close. 

Similar to Texas and Alabama,  lots of stupid Republican men live in Georgia who vote R no matter what. They drive massive pick up trucks, think people should be able to bring guns to their kids soccer games, think the 10 year old raped in Ohio should’ve carried that baby to term, and don’t care that over 10 women have come forward to accuse Roy Moore of sexual misconduct.

these men don’t care about you or anything else. Their only goal in life is TO OWN THE LIBS because of “Muh guns and my bible”.

The trashiest human beings you will ever meet.

[Voldemort86 2259]

17 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

bahahahaha. I wish I could vote for Fetterman. He's awesome

 

This is gold.

[The Dog 44747]

12 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

I built a medical complex in York PA, so I've spent a little time there, but I don't get the "Yinzer" and the rest of the shit Fetterman tweets.  WTF does all that mean? 

It’s a Pittsburgh thing.

13 hours ago, Pancho said:

AARP poll released today:

Warnock - 50%
rocks for brains - 47%

 

Warnock leads with indy voters, 48-45

Kemp +7 in the same poll. He’s not beating Abrams by that much.

A lot of Kemp voters will vote for Warnock or just abstain.

[Js1 86776]

25 minutes ago, The Dog said:

It’s a Pittsburgh thing.

Kemp +7 in the same poll. He’s not beating Abrams by that much.

A lot of Kemp voters will vote for Warnock or just abstain.

Eh.  Incumbency bias for both and since Walker is insane, but Kemp drew the ire of and stood up to Trump, independents/moderates will split their votes and not feel bad about it.  Could def see both Warnock and Kemp end up winning together. 

[atomheartbevo 90495]

23 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

bahahahaha. I wish I could vote for Fetterman. He's awesome

5 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

This is gold.

This is brutal

 

[HenryJames 67051]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

This is brutal

 

 

[Gil Bang 26172]

Fucking Fetterman ain't afraid to pitch inside. 

[babysdaddy 2731]

He is going to shitpost is way to the Senate. Geno's is fucking gross.

[Js1 86776]

2 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

He is going to shitpost is way to the Senate. Geno's is fucking gross.

That’s the grossest looking sandwich I’ve ever seen. Looks like something from Vic’s Facebook friend thread 

[Sawbonz 28046]

On 7/12/2022 at 8:14 AM, gmr548 said:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

AZ, MI, NV, PA, and GA are the five swing states with the highest death rates. AZ stands out at a little over 400 per 100k, the rest are 350-370. The age profile and vaccine refusal of COVID victims are decidely Republican attributes, but there are also racial disparities in the death toll due to socioeconomic factors; all of these states have significant black and/or hispanic populations.

Also, these states ranged from 11k deaths (NV) to 45k (PA). Even if you assume 75% of victims were voters (maybe not that high but not crazy to think it would be above gen pop due to age) and a 60-40 tilt towards Trump voters (made up for the sake of an example - personally doubt the number could be any higher than this but I've never seen it quantified either), we're talking < 7,000 net Trump votes in PA. About 4,500 net Trump votes in AZ, which would be the highest number relative to population due to the high death rate, and I am not sure that 60% estimate would be accurate given the impact on the Latino community.

I don't think that is going to move the needle.

Plus Magats are moving to AZ TX and FL in numbers that match or exceed dems.   Women need to vote their uterus

[Sawbonz 28046]

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19399]

1 hour ago, Sawbonz said:

 

2020 proved that means fuck-all.  Why do people continue to put any credence into funding numbers?

[chainsaw 10216]

9 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

2020 proved that means fuck-all.  Why do people continue to put any credence into funding numbers?

To be totally honest I don't know if I can agree that fundraising is irrelevant, but I think it's not the only thing that matters and some people take it way too seriously. It's a good sign though. I'd much rather have a fundraising advantage than not.