2022 Senate Elections

[B00M 6415]

9 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Finding people to give and donate in that party is difficult because they don’t care about the greater good. 

Huh? What do campaign contributions, especially to trumpy candidates, have to do with the greater good? 

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, B00M said:

Huh? What do campaign contributions, especially to trumpy candidates, have to do with the greater good? 

I was just making the point that republicans are an inherently selfish party. All of their policies and beliefs revolve around things like “I have mine screw you”, “ leave me alone, get it yourself”, or “ god tells me this….. so it must be so”.

[The Dog 44041]

 

[Js1 85320]

Big Tammy apparently got Lasry to drop out and endorse Barnes in Wisconsin.

Also another poll had Warnock up 46-43 with Kemp up 48-43 on Abrams.  That Senate/Gov split is looking very very likely. 

[Biff Tannen 45678]

21 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Big Tammy apparently got Lasry to drop out and endorse Barnes in Wisconsin.

Also another poll had Warnock up 46-43 with Kemp up 48-43 on Abrams.  That Senate/Gov split is looking very very likely. 

If Herschel Walker gets 43%, I think Georgia is done as a state. 

[Pescado_Rojo 19416]

2 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

If Herschel Walker gets 43%, I think Georgia is done as a state. 

I'd bet 40% of Georgia just checks the Straight Ticket R button. 

[Js1 85320]

5 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

If Herschel Walker gets 43%, I think Georgia is done as a state. 

Lol what? That’s basically the floor for a Republican in a purple state. Georgia might have 2 Dem senators but it’s not blue state or even close. Walker could easily end up with 43-47% of the vote and that wouldn’t feel wrong. 

[Snake Diggity 4622]

270towin consensus currently has it 47-49-4.  The 4 tossups are NV, AZ, GA, and PA.  Walker, Oz, and the AZ Q team seem to be shitting the bed so far with a little over 90 days to the election.  I just don’t see how the GOP picks up the majority; if they do, it would be a really really really bad sign.  To me it’s a lot easier to see the Dems getting to 51 before the Republicans.  And I don’t see the door totally closed for the Dems on OH, WI, and UT (I have no hope for FL or NC, just like I don’t see much chance of NH going red).

Edited July 27, 2022 by Snake Diggity

[Biff Tannen 45678]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Lol what? That’s basically the floor for a Republican in a purple state. Georgia might have 2 Dem senators but it’s not blue state or even close. Walker could easily end up with 43-47% of the vote and that wouldn’t feel wrong. 

I believe my point still stands. 

[Biff Tannen 45678]

3 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

270towin consensus currently has it 47-49-4.  The 4 tossups are NV, AZ, GA, and PA.  Walker, Oz, and the AZ Q team seem to be shitting the bed so far with a little over 90 days to the election.  I just don’t see how the GOP picks up the majority; if they do, it would be a really really really bad sign.  To me it’s a lot easier to see the Dems getting to 51 before the Republicans.  And I don’t see the door totally closed for the Dems on OH, WI, and UT (I have no hope for FL or NC).

Don’t you be giving me hope. Honestly, the House is the only thing im worried about. If we lose the senate too, well, it’s for sure the end. 

[Snake Diggity 4622]

4 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Don’t you be giving me hope. Honestly, the House is the only thing im worried about. If we lose the senate too, well, it’s for sure the end. 

The House is almost certainly going to be a Republican majority.

[Biff Tannen 45678]

1 minute ago, Snake Diggity said:

The House is almost certainly going to be a Republican majority.

Shut up. Just shut up. You know the end result. 

[hookem2010 2624]

Any chance Biden announces he is not running for reelection prior to the midterms to possibly generate some excitement on the D side? Fair or not, an unpopular octogenarian in the executive can't be pushing many democratic candidates over the line in November.

[Aqua Buddha 14595]

Watch JD Vance have a big money tech job lined up after the election.  It’s almost obvious when you think about it.  Lined it up a few months ago, doesn’t want the Senate seat anymore, mails it in and loses.

Inflation might actually be hurting Republican small donors more.  They’re downscale whites who are spending their last dollars on $7 has to get to a Trump rally.  
 

The Dems might actually gain in the Senate because they nominated horrible candidates/people along with Herschel Walker having emotional problems.

Then again, the Republicans have gaslit themselves into believing the economy is the worst ever but 10 year olds having babies is fine.

[Pig Bellmont 8717]

7 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

The House is almost certainly going to be a Republican majority.

I’m not sure 

plus I think Dobbs is going to play a much bigger role in turning out people who otherwise would have sat out a midterm election. 

[BLKNSTY 289]

6 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

Any chance Biden announces he is not running for reelection prior to the midterms to possibly generate some excitement on the D side? Fair or not, an unpopular octogenarian in the executive can't be pushing many democratic candidates over the line in November.

This would doom the D's in 2024 with a lame duck prez the next two years. As much as I want to criticize the Big Guy, but he's absolutely right on how he's playing it now IMO. 

[Biff Tannen 45678]

12 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

Any chance Biden announces he is not running for reelection prior to the midterms to possibly generate some excitement on the D side? Fair or not, an unpopular octogenarian in the executive can't be pushing many democratic candidates over the line in November.

No

[Js1 85320]

8 minutes ago, BLKNSTY said:

This would doom the D's in 2024 with a lame duck prez the next two years. As much as I want to criticize the Big Guy, but he's absolutely right on how he's playing it now IMO. 

You don't give up incumbency.  You just don't.

Is there a chance he's Carter or Bush or Trump?  Sure.  But incumbent presidents rarely lose.   Why would the Dems willingly pull a 1968? 

[Snake Diggity 4622]

52 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

I’m not sure 

plus I think Dobbs is going to play a much bigger role in turning out people who otherwise would have sat out a midterm election. 

I think the state legislatures will have an impact on the House outcome.

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, Pig Bellmont said:

I’m not sure 

plus I think Dobbs is going to play a much bigger role in turning out people who otherwise would have sat out a midterm election. 

I was thinking about not voting this year and I always vote and vote democrat, but after the Supreme Court came out with that non-sense, I’ll just show up and vote straight ticket dem as a fuck you to the GOP. 
 

I hope it’s a similar boost to dems in the senate as the kavanaugh hearings were to republicans in 2018.

[LCHorn 2620]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

You don't give up incumbency.  You just don't.

Is there a chance he's Carter or Bush or Trump?  Sure.  But incumbent presidents rarely lose.   Why would the Dems willingly pull a 1968? 

Not only that but there’s no one behind him that can replicate that particular coalition UNLESS there’s something unexpected, like say the kind of national mourning that might result from dying in office.  

[gmr548 16576]

If Herschel Walker gets 43%, I think Georgia is done as a state. 

So what does that mean when he gets 48-51%?

[gmr548 16576]

270towin consensus currently has it 47-49-4.  The 4 tossups are NV, AZ, GA, and PA.  Walker, Oz, and the AZ Q team seem to be shitting the bed so far with a little over 90 days to the election.  I just don’t see how the GOP picks up the majority; if they do, it would be a really really really bad sign.  To me it’s a lot easier to see the Dems getting to 51 before the Republicans.  And I don’t see the door totally closed for the Dems on OH, WI, and UT (I have no hope for FL or NC, just like I don’t see much chance of NH going red).

2018 saw the Republicans pay for an unpopular President by getting rocked in the House, including some truly puzzling losses in pretty red districts, while actually picking up a couple Senate seats.

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Though I’d add the caveat that I’m not sure where the second D pickup comes from even if they do hold everything, and NV and NH are especially weird.

[Neonmoon 38129]

About those Georgia predictions 

 

[Js1 85320]

39 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I was thinking about not voting this year

No. Just no.

People not voting got us into this mess.  You have a vote, fucking use it. 

[Bullneck 19084]

 

 

 

 

 

[Pancho 44769]

 

[GopherRock 1765]

22 hours ago, gmr548 said:

2018 saw the Republicans pay for an unpopular President by getting rocked in the House, including some truly puzzling losses in pretty red districts, while actually picking up a couple Senate seats.

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Though I’d add the caveat that I’m not sure where the second D pickup comes from even if they do hold everything, and NV and NH are especially weird.

Wisconsin, North Carolina, (large gap), Ohio, Florida, in descending order.

This year is an inverse of 2018, except with the Supremes handing Democrats the biggest political bailout of my lifetime with the Dobbs decision.

Speaking of 2018, that hideous Senate map is up in 2024. Looking at that, and it's clear the blue team better make as much hay as they can this fall, because 2024 is all defense. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13512]

For the first time this election cycle, 538 has given the Dems the better chance to control the Senate: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo

Dems need to put their foot on the pedal to get to 51 if not 52 seats. If Fetterman (PA), Cortez Masto (NV) and Hassan (NH) can all hold on, 50 is the worse case. Biden will at least have the ability to appoint judges. Add Warnock and perhaps if WI can come to their senses, perhaps 52 is within reach.

The House is trending better for the Dems but it does seem unlikely for the Dems to hold onto control.

[Biff Tannen 45678]

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The House is trending better for the Dems but it does seem unlikely for the Dems to hold onto control

And everything will come to a grinding halt.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13512]

The big unknown for the House is what the economic conditions will be in 3 months. Much could be stabilized if not improved. Gas prices. Stock market. Inflation. 

[A-Tex Devil 2446]

 

 

12 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The big unknown for the House is what the economic conditions will be in 3 months. Much could be stabilized if not improved. Gas prices. Stock market. Inflation. 

I presume gerrymandering is the main reason Dems likely can't win the house.  Otherwise, I do not fully understand how so many districts would have flipped in the last 2 years.  It's not like the GOP is putting up more palatable candidates to the moderates.  

[Satchel 6938]

On 7/27/2022 at 12:28 PM, Snake Diggity said:

The House is almost certainly going to be a Republican majority.

Dems will keep both chambers and will increase their margin in the Senate.

[Biff Tannen 45678]

1 hour ago, Satchel said:

Dems will keep both chambers and will increase their margin in the Senate.

I'll have what you're smoking.

[Satchel 6938]

2 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I'll have what you're smoking.

Unlike most who post here, I’m a glass half full kinda guy.

[Biff Tannen 45678]

1 hour ago, Satchel said:

Unlike most who post here, I’m a glass half full kinda guy.

I'm more of a "there is no glass" kinda guy.

[Js1 85320]

Fetterman 47-36 (Shapiro 50-40) in PA

Warnock 46-42 (Kemp 47-44) in GA

Fox News polls 

[UTGrad98 2272]

I'll be voting in the midterms due to abortion vote. I normally do not. 

[Biff Tannen 45678]

1 hour ago, UTGrad98 said:

I'll be voting in the midterms due to abortion vote. I normally do not. 

Good.  Tell everyone in your orbit to vote too.  This shit is important.

[gmr548 16576]

 
 
I presume gerrymandering is the main reason Dems likely can't win the house.  Otherwise, I do not fully understand how so many districts would have flipped in the last 2 years.  It's not like the GOP is putting up more palatable candidates to the moderates.  

Redistricting actually ever so slightly improved Democrats’ position. The gain was actually pretty significant until Florida dropped a brutal gerrymander and NY’s was overturned.

[gmr548 16576]

The big unknown for the House is what the economic conditions will be in 3 months. Much could be stabilized if not improved. Gas prices. Stock market. Inflation. 

The only unknown is if Republicans merely flip the House, but leave room for it to flip back in 2024, or if it’s a true wave/wipeout for which the only short term hope for a Democratic House is, ironically, a Republican President.

[HenryJames 66048]

 

[Gil Bang 25950]

 

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

To the windooooooowww.

To the wall…

Edited July 29, 2022 by Fudge Nuggets

[Gil Bang 25950]

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

How is Fetterman not up 20+ on the islamic terrorist?

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

4 hours ago, GopherRock said:

Wisconsin, North Carolina, (large gap), Ohio, Florida, in descending order.

This year is an inverse of 2018, except with the Supremes handing Democrats the biggest political bailout of my lifetime with the Dobbs decision.

Speaking of 2018, that hideous Senate map is up in 2024. Looking at that, and it's clear the blue team better make as much hay as they can this fall, because 2024 is all defense. 

I think Ohio will be closer than NC.

[TheStoicPaisano 9922]

21 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

 

 

I hope off brand Judge Smails does play some YYT.

 

[kevwun 15781]

13 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

How is Fetterman not up 20+ on the islamic terrorist?

That's a Fox New poll.  If they have him up by 11, he might really be up by 20.

[immamac 42845]

I mean even if the Republicans win the house if the Senate gets 52 or 54 dems can't they just finally vote through the huge pile of house bills that have already been passed?