Jump to content

2022 Senate Elections

Ghost of LL

By Ghost of LL
in Cloak Room

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Zonahorn
Zonahorn
Bama Chick
Bama Chick

That “majority” has been remembered as something that never actually existed. Let's clear that all up, shall we? Starting January 2009, at the beginning of the 111th Congress, in the month that Bara

Pescado_Rojo
Pescado_Rojo

I'd pay good money to watch Big John Fetterman beat Steve Bannon to death with Roger Stone. 

Posted Images

Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,738

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I know it was chance of winning since it was written on the image. But there is no way in fuck that having a 60/40 split is a toss-up whether in an election or a ballgame. 

At this moment 538 has the NC race at a 65-35 in favor of Budd. But they analyze the polls and the actual vote estimate is 49.4% to 46.8% once again in favor of Budd. Since that is within the margin of error, I would say that is a toss-up or close to it.

Having a 40% (or 35%) chance of winning gives you a good chance of winning.  In gambling terms, the money would be +185 for the underdog.

As someone else wrote, Trump was a much larger underdog in 2016 using the same analysis. 

 

 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Js1

Js1 87,197

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

At this moment 538 has the NC race at a 65-35 in favor of Budd. But they analyze the polls and the actual vote estimate is 49.4% to 46.8% once again in favor of Budd. Since that is within the margin of error, I would say that is a toss-up or close to it.

Having a 40% (or 35%) chance of winning gives you a good chance of winning.  In gambling terms, the money would be +185 for the underdog.

As someone else wrote, Trump was a much larger underdog in 2016 using the same analysis. 

 

 

Also gotta follow the momentum.  She’s closing the gap, so unless all polling is wildly wrong and the three elections since Dobbs mean nothing, it shows a trend

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Pods

Pods 7,637

Posted
Posted

Anyone who thought Fetterman wouldn't massacre Oz doesn't know any Pennsylvanians. Oz has no chance in the cities and his support in Pennsyltucky will massively underperform what other GQP candidates would have pulled.

Fetterman's health is the only potential issue here.  

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
chainsaw

chainsaw 10,298

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Pods said:

Anyone who thought Fetterman wouldn't massacre Oz doesn't know any Pennsylvanians. Oz has no chance in the cities and his support in Pennsyltucky will massively underperform what other GQP candidates would have pulled.

Fetterman's health is the only potential issue here.  

I'd love to see a boxing match between the two

Link to comment
Share on other sites
GopherRock

GopherRock 1,773

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Also gotta follow the momentum.  She’s closing the gap, so unless all polling is wildly wrong and the three elections since Dobbs mean nothing, it shows a trend

This. The momentum is why we're even discussing Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, and North Carolina in this thread. 

Speaking of Florida, that same poll that shows Demings with a 48-44 lead on Marco also has 71 percent opposition to the Florida's complete ban on abortion. At what point does that start weighing on DeSantis? Dobbs and Kansas have wiped out any talk of a red wave. My optimistic side thinks that he's got nowhere to go but down, but then I realize that this is Florida we're talking about. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19,461

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

At this moment 538 has the NC race at a 65-35 in favor of Budd. But they analyze the polls and the actual vote estimate is 49.4% to 46.8% once again in favor of Budd. Since that is within the margin of error, I would say that is a toss-up or close to it.

Having a 40% (or 35%) chance of winning gives you a good chance of winning.  In gambling terms, the money would be +185 for the underdog.

As someone else wrote, Trump was a much larger underdog in 2016 using the same analysis. 

 

 

Ok, this makes a lot more sense.  49.4 to 46.8 would certainly be toss-up range.

I guess the odds of winning deal takes into account the rubes show up in force while the D's base will either stay home or have their votes tossed out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19,590

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, GopherRock said:

This. The momentum is why we're even discussing Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, and North Carolina in this thread. 

Speaking of Florida, that same poll that shows Demings with a 48-44 lead on Marco also has 71 percent opposition to the Florida's complete ban on abortion. At what point does that start weighing on DeSantis? Dobbs and Kansas have wiped out any talk of a red wave. My optimistic side thinks that he's got nowhere to go but down, but then I realize that this is Florida we're talking about. 

Man, why do I feel like Marco and DeSantis will both end up winning by .07%? Because Florida. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Js1

Js1 87,197

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Man, why do I feel like Marco and DeSantis will both end up winning by .07%? Because Florida. 

Would suck, but also that’s a horrible political environment for GOP there. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Beantown Express 2.0

Beantown Express 2.0 6,597

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Truly sleazy lawyers probably would be wary to be around Trump these days.

But Jimmy McGill might have taken that case on.

 

I would bet a bunch of money that Trump actually told his staff to try and hire that “Saul Goodman” guy as he seems like a great lawyer, not realizing it’s a TV show.  

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Js1

Js1 87,197

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Marquette Law should be releasing a Wisconsin poll in about an hour.  Let's see what they have from their June poll when it was Barnes +2 (46-44) over Ron Johnson and Evers +7 (48-41) over Michels

51-44 Barnes. Hello!  It actually switched from June - Evers +2 and Barnes +7

Edited by Js1
  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Js1

Js1 87,197

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Good news for Barnes but what's going on with Evers?

Michels isn’t well known yet. He wasn’t initially expected to win until Trump endorsed

Evers up 48-44 among those “certain to vote”

Edited by Js1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Js1

Js1 87,197

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Also, he’s the problem with this board.  We are all educated people.  We look to data naturally. We rely on data naturally.  
 

The only data we have are these polls.  So we take them as gospel.  Then every election we do the they don’t know shit about fuck post mortem. 

That’s not true. We have had 3 elections with huge Dem over performance. AK-AL won’t shake out for a few weeks. NY-19 will be a new data point next week. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,738

Posted
Posted

It's far to say that close races will never be polled correctly. Looking back at 2020, 538's forecast* was wrong on the following:

GA: Ossoff had a 43% chance of winning. Win margin of 1%

ME: Collins had a 41% chance. Ran away with it. (Collins never won a poll leading up to election day)

NC: Tillis had a 32% chance.  Won by 2%.

* 538 does not poll anyone but instead has a model to analyze polls and historic data and trends. Based on the win chance % definition, 538 considered Tillis at 32% as a slight underdog. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
GopherRock

GopherRock 1,773

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Also, he’s the problem with this board.  We are all educated people.  We look to data naturally. We rely on data naturally.  
 

The only data we have are these polls.  So we take them as gospel.  Then every election we do the they don’t know shit about fuck post mortem. 

That is also why many of us are treading carefully at polls showing small but stubborn leads given the frequency and rightward-direction of polling busts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Js1

Js1 87,197

Posted
Posted

Midterm polling is not terrible.  Remember that it was pretty accurate in 2010/2018.  2014, Dems fell off a fucking cliff quickly leading up to Election Day.

Both in 2010/2014, the GCB was right in line with what came about.

Trump really threw off turnout models in 2016/2020.  A lot of non-voters/unlikely voters showed up for him and only him. 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2,259

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

It's far to say that close races will never be polled correctly. Looking back at 2020, 538's forecast* was wrong on the following:

GA: Ossoff had a 43% chance of winning. Win margin of 1%

ME: Collins had a 41% chance. Ran away with it. (Collins never won a poll leading up to election day)

NC: Tillis had a 32% chance.  Won by 2%.

* 538 does not poll anyone but instead has a model to analyze polls and historic data and trends. Based on the win chance % definition, 538 considered Tillis at 32% as a slight underdog. 

 

Polling doesn’t account for extra marital affairs. We would have a senate seat in North Carolina if Cunningham could just keep his pants on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
chainsaw

chainsaw 10,298

Posted
Posted
Just now, Voldemort86 said:

This guy really is a fucking scumbag. Even more evidence that the GOP only cares about you if your bank account is in the top 10% of this country. They dupe so many people every election cycle.

Is he running on not punishing the pharmaceutical industry? Bold strategy. Let's see how it works out for him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,738

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

This guy really is a fucking scumbag. Even more evidence that the GOP only cares about you if your bank account is in the top 10% of this country. They dupe so many people every election cycle.

Looks like Johnson is desperate for money. You don't signal your opposition to lower drug prices for seniors except in a shameless beg for Big Pharma money.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gengs1

Gengs1 2,583

Posted
Posted (edited)

A candidate with a competent social media would be hammering him with memes and tweets all day regarding this but dems fail at it

someone get Fetterman more $ to expand his social media team for other candidates 

Edited by Gengs1
  • Hook 'Em 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19,590

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

A candidate with a competent social media would be hammering him with memes and tweets all day regarding this but dems fail at it

The DNC needs to just hire Fetterman's social media manager and let him or her just troll the fuck out of all the Republican Senate candidates. 

  • Hook 'Em 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...