2022 Senate Elections

[Fudge Nuggets 19461]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

I think it’s fine. Everyone has to do what they feel gives them the best chance to win and what their polling says. 

No need to bed wet about it 

Al Gore would have been President if he had Bill Clinton campaigning for him.

[babysdaddy 2731]

1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Some sobering points from one of the prime nerds. 
 

 

 

 

I don't think this takes into account how utterly shitty the R nominees are in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona.  Senate will stay Blue and pick up seats.

[WBT 20986]

38 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

I don't think this takes into account how utterly shitty the R nominees are in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona.  Senate will stay Blue and pick up seats.

How should it account for that other than naming them in the polls asking people who they will vote for?

[babysdaddy 2731]

Just now, WBT said:

How should it account for that other than naming them in the polls asking people who they will vote for?

It can't.  It is historical data.  And if these candidates were run of the mill Rs then I might buy the concerns but, specifically for the races I mentioned above, the candidates are historically awful (in my opinion).

[Js1 87200]

38 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

It can't.  It is historical data.  And if these candidates were run of the mill Rs then I might buy the concerns but, specifically for the races I mentioned above, the candidates are historically awful (in my opinion).

I mean, the model can't account for it, that's for sure.  I wish 538 was doing Senate predictions before 2014, when Todd Akin (MO) and Richard Mourdock (IN) were running when Romney won their states and lost.  Or 2010, when Ken Buck (Colorado) and Sharron Angle (NV) were so shitty, they couldn't even get elected in a red wave year in swing states.

2018 was Bill Nelson losing in a blue wave because he was a lazy campaigner. 

Candidate quality does matter.  Oz, Walker, Masters and Buldoc are about on-par with all of those really shitty Rs who couldn't win when all the history said they should.  Ron Johnson has run in 2010 (red year), 2016 (Trump on the ballot and won the state) and 2022 - this will be his first race in an environment that's pretty against him. 

Senate Toss Up Outcomes, 1998-2016 | Cook Political Report

Edited August 30, 2022 by Js1

[The Dog 44861]

[Nice Guy Eddie 13739]

The makeup of the Senate and the states should make for a minimum GOP majority of 52-48 if not closer to 60. The GOP really shoots themselves in the foot with their candidate choices. They even have some Dem senators from deep red states. 

Dems have their screwups as well but the GOP takes it to a different level.

[babysdaddy 2731]

16 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The makeup of the Senate and the states should make for a minimum GOP majority of 52-48 if not closer to 60. The GOP really shoots themselves in the foot with their candidate choices. They even have some Dem senators from deep red states. 

Dems have their screwups as well but the GOP takes it to a different level.

Cal Cunningham says 'sup

[chainsaw 10298]

59 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

[Js1 87200]

1 minute ago, chainsaw said:

To be fair, polls in NY-19 were anywhere from 6-11 points off to the right. Everyone needs to adjust their live voter screen.  There was an R+8 poll literally the day before NY-19 😂

[chainsaw 10298]

Just now, Js1 said:

To be fair, polls in NY-19 were anywhere from 6-11 points off to the right. Everyone needs to adjust their live voter screen.  There was an R+8 poll literally the day before NY-19 😂

I wonder if the trend will hold into November though. Plus it's not a given that the GOP won't adapt by then.

[atomheartbevo 90660]

1 hour ago, chainsaw said:

I wonder if the trend will hold into November though. Plus it's not a given that the GOP won't adapt by then.

I have every confidence that some Republicans are going to remind everybody they can for the next few months that they are banning abortion everywhere they can.  And I wouldn’t put it past them to talk more publicly about wanting to ban some contraception, as well as sodomy/homosexuality.

Because that’s who they are.

Edited August 30, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[chainsaw 10298]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I have every confidence that some Republicans are going to remind everybody they can for the next few months that they are banning abortion everywhere they can.  And I wouldn’t put it past them to talk more publicly about wanting to ban some contraception, as well as sodomy/homosexuality.

Because that’s who they are.

I disagree. When they are being competent, they know when and how to shut up. It's how they got Kavanaugh and Barrett on the supreme court

[Voldemort86 2259]

5 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I disagree. When they are being competent, they know when and how to shut up. It's how they got Kavanaugh and Barrett on the supreme court

Barrett was luck. They needed RBG to croak to pull that off. I’ll give them kavanaugh.  All Trump cares about is himself and winning so he engineered a retirement from Kennedy to boost the GOP in the 2018 elections and unfortunately it saved them some governorships and won some senate seats.

[Biff Tannen 46173]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but incredibly, isn't polling still done via fucking phone?  Like, it literally relies on people answering their phone in 2022?  How is that in any way a logical or feasible way to conduct a poll?

[chainsaw 10298]

1 minute ago, Voldemort86 said:

Barrett was luck. They needed RBG to croak to pull that off. I’ll give them kavanaugh.  All Trump cares about is himself and winning so he engineered a retirement from Kennedy to boost the GOP in the 2018 elections and unfortunately it saved them some governorships and won some senate seats.

I agree that luck made it possible, but the GOP did not take the political hit they should have taken because they were smart enough to rush the whole process.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

28 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but incredibly, isn't polling still done via fucking phone?  Like, it literally relies on people answering their phone in 2022?  How is that in any way a logical or feasible way to conduct a poll?

there are different polls done different ways.  then weighted based on those ways.

[Biff Tannen 46173]

1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

there are different polls done different ways.  then weighted based on those ways.

[Voldemort86 2259]

46 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I agree that luck made it possible, but the GOP did not take the political hit they should have taken because they were smart enough to rush the whole process.

Democrats should have a lot of leeway with the general population when it comes to the Supreme Court after McConnell stole scalia’s seat and they rushed ACB. If a vacancy comes up that is.

 

[cactusflinthead 27628]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

To be fair, polls in NY-19 were anywhere from 6-11 points off to the right. Everyone needs to adjust their live voter screen.  There was an R+8 poll literally the day before NY-19 😂

They are scrubbing as fast as they can

 

[Gengs1 2583]

16 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

They are scrubbing as fast as they can

 

This is where the dems need to get in the offensive, channel the dark Brandon 

[Voldemort86 2259]

40 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

They are scrubbing as fast as they can

 

It’s a sign of weakness. A desperate ploy because they are losing.

[Pods 7637]

9 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

 

Quote

The General refused to bow to those elitist cucks with their “science” and epidemiology and doctorates of medicine. Because while most Granite Staters emphasize the “Live Free” portion of the state’s motto, Bolduc demands that respect be paid to the “Or Die” bit.

Needs to be a Hassan campaign ad. 

[Pato del Muerto 53537]

So they are as hard right as possible to win the primary, then try to act normal for the general, when they don’t have to worry about losing the hard right vote. 

[cactusflinthead 27628]

6 hours ago, Js1 said:

Masters

This fucker. I was trying to remember who had done a hard scrub the last couple of days.

Republican Senate candidates have indicated that abortion rights could be a weakness for them in the November elections. Blake Masters, who is running against Democratic Senator Mark Kelly in Arizona, altered his campaign website this week to delete some language expressing support for severe abortion restrictions.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/aug/27/democrats-senate-midterms-republicans

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

12 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

This fucker. I was trying to remember who had done a hard scrub the last couple of days.

Republican Senate candidates have indicated that abortion rights could be a weakness for them in the November elections. Blake Masters, who is running against Democratic Senator Mark Kelly in Arizona, altered his campaign website this week to delete some language expressing support for severe abortion restrictions.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/aug/27/democrats-senate-midterms-republicans

 

Not going to work

[atomheartbevo 90660]

 

[atomheartbevo 90660]

 

[The Royal We 3100]

6 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

That thing looks about as official as the badge sticker and certificate my boys got when the Cub Scouts visited the fire station.  We are really going to have to institute some aptitude tests that are taken when a candidate files to run for election. Aren't we?

[Pescado_Rojo 19590]

I think they meant "Special" Deputy...if you know what I mean. 

[South Austin 53230]

It's like the driver's license my kids got at Leggo Land.

[StassneyHorn 6780]

It’s a Junior Ranger badge from Yellowstone.

[atomheartbevo 90660]

45 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

It’s a Junior Ranger badge from Yellowstone.

My kids have some of the junior ranger badges from the national parks, and they actually had to work to get those, including doing a bunch of exercises from out of a book (quizzes, puzzles, etc. about features in the parks, etc,).

I’m sure he didn’t have to do that.

[Pato del Muerto 53537]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

I’m sure he didn’t have to do that.

I’m sure he couldn’t have. 

[Js1 87200]

Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

I’m sure he couldn’t have. 

Like Herschel Walker could solve a puzzle or a quiz meant for a 7 year old. 

[South Austin 53230]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Like Herschel Walker could solve a puzzle or a quiz meant for a 7 year old. 

Pretty sure he can't even color in between the lines.

[DigglerontheHoof 21557]

Like that stupid motherfucker can read.

[Pescado_Rojo 19590]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Like Herschel Walker could solve a puzzle or a quiz meant for a 7 year old. 

That should be the whole debate. "Gentlemen, in front of you is a 500 piece jigsaw puzzle made for kids age 10 and up. You have 10 minutes to complete the puzzle. Go."

[Voldemort86 2259]

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-rating-changes-arizona-pennsylvania-to-leans-democratic/
 

election pundit Sabato has moved both Pennsylvania and Arizona from toss up to leans democrat. It’s starting to look like the GOPs only chance to flip the senate is Nevada / Georgia. 

[SubliminalHorn 7009]

7 hours ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I think they meant "Special" Deputy...if you know what I mean. 

[tx 3 putt 78714]

14 hours ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Like that stupid motherfucker can read.

 

no way he can read, no fucking way 

[Voldemort86 2259]

Barnes is catching Johnson in the betting markets. Wisconsin is starting to look more and more like a true toss up and a viable flip opportunity for the dems. Hopefully Ohio and North Carolina trend in this direction as well. Florida is probably fucked because of the content stream of Fox News watching olds moving there and Detrumpis will probably pull Rubio over the line.

Edited September 2, 2022 by Voldemort86

[Voldemort86 2259]

The guy is definitely a bonafide creep and has no business being a US senator. Much less a 3rd term one. Also keep in mind, his first 2 elections were under more favorable conditions for his party 2010 where democrats had a hang over from the 2008 party and they all missed the next election and 2016 where the whole country seemed to have Obama / democrat fatigue and wasn’t excited about Hilary taking over.

[The Dog 44861]

14 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Barnes is catching Johnson in the betting markets. Wisconsin is starting to look more and more like a true toss up and a viable flip opportunity for the dems. Hopefully Ohio and North Carolina trend in this direction as well. Florida is probably fucked because of the content stream of Fox News watching olds moving there and Detrumpis will probably pull Rubio over the line.

I mean, if you're a Republican incumbent and you're trailing in Trafalgar...

RCP wasn't even paying attention to this (listing as a top race) until the last month or so. 

Good news for Johnson is  all of these are within the margin of error. 

Bad news is that Barnes is polling at or above 50%. 

Johnson trailed in the polls in 2016 but Trump drug him across the finish line - remember that the majority of undecideds and first time voters broke hard for Trump and the Republicans that year. Trump isn't on the ballot to help him this time.

[Voldemort86 2259]

4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I mean, if you're a Republican incumbent and you're trailing in Trafalgar...

RCP wasn't even paying attention to this (listing as a top race) until the last month or so. 

Good news for Johnson is  all of these are within the margin of error. 

Bad news is that Barnes is polling at or above 50%. 

Johnson trailed in the polls in 2016 but Trump drug him across the finish line - remember that the majority of undecideds and first time voters broke hard for Trump and the Republicans that year. Trump isn't on the ballot to help him this time.

Not to mention…… there’s no Hilary to abandon Wisconsin either while Trump simultaneously did tons of Nuremberg nazi rallies all over the state to win votes.

[Voldemort86 2259]

Masters is a total joke. He has the audacity to attack a democrat on abortion when less than 2 weeks ago he was supposedly pro life and in favor of a full abortion ban. He flip flops more than Romney did in 2012.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13739]

CNN report that Ohioan GOPers are upset that JD Vance has gone silent. Never a good sign when fingers are being pointed 2 months until election day.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/01/politics/ohio-senate-race-vance-republicans/index.html

Quote

“J.D. is running a campaign where the faithful in the state, the county chairmen, the precinct executives, the executive committee and the Republican Party are saying, ‘where’s J.D.?’” said Bill Cunningham, a conservative radio talk show host in Cincinnati for the past 40 years. “And they want him to do things. People want to meet him. They want to. This is a new guy, new kid on the block.”

Cunningham added: “He’s been spoken to by at least one US senator and at least one governor he respects to kick him in the ass.”

Privately, the blame game has intensified. One senior GOP strategist pointed the finger at the National Republican Senatorial Committee for not providing Vance with a campaign infrastructure to help with fundraising, communications and strategy in the immediate aftermath of his May primary win. (NRSC spokesman Chris Hartline told CNN, “We’ve worked very closely with the Vance campaign and will continue to do whatever is needed to help him win big in November.”)

Some blame the growing pains of a first-time candidate; two GOP sources say he likes to keep a light schedule, especially on weekends.

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

13 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

CNN report that Ohioan GOPers are upset that JD Vance has gone silent. Never a good sign when fingers are being pointed 2 months until election day.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/01/politics/ohio-senate-race-vance-republicans/index.html

 

Still not there yet on believing.  If it’s close in October, I’ll probably buy in. Need to burn some more time and see if it stays close.

[Gengs1 2583]

3 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Still not there yet on believing.  If it’s close in October, I’ll probably buy in. Need to burn some more time and see if it stays close.

The caravans are coming tenfold back but this time with Afghans jihadist 

[High Plains Drifter 11191]

On 8/31/2022 at 9:17 AM, atomheartbevo said:

My kids have some of the junior ranger badges from the national parks, and they actually had to work to get those, including doing a bunch of exercises from out of a book (quizzes, puzzles, etc. about features in the parks, etc,).

I’m sure he didn’t have to do that.

 

back when, my daughter was all excited to get one those from Big Bend, until she realized that it actually involved "learning", during spring break no less!