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2022 Senate Elections

Ghost of LL

By Ghost of LL
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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11669

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28 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Masters is a total joke. He has the audacity to attack a democrat on abortion when less than 2 weeks ago he was supposedly pro life and in favor of a full abortion ban. He flip flops more than Romney did in 2012.

nate silver has an article up pointing to masters in general to the downside of Rs having trump as the face of the party.  he elevated masters to the nomination over more seasoned Rs, and masters shit for brains self is going to make this election a joke.  oz is the other.  seems like that is the real impact of having trump around is that his guys get elevated in heavy red districts and end up in office.  but where there is a purple district, he ends up giving the dems a big advantage because his folks are so unpalatable to independents.

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That “majority” has been remembered as something that never actually existed. Let's clear that all up, shall we? Starting January 2009, at the beginning of the 111th Congress, in the month that Bara

Pescado_Rojo
Pescado_Rojo

I'd pay good money to watch Big John Fetterman beat Steve Bannon to death with Roger Stone. 

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Js1

Js1 87198

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1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

nate silver has an article up pointing to masters in general to the downside of Rs having trump as the face of the party.  he elevated masters to the nomination over more seasoned Rs, and masters shit for brains self is going to make this election a joke.  oz is the other.  seems like that is the real impact of having trump around is that his guys get elevated in heavy red districts and end up in office.  but where there is a purple district, he ends up giving the dems a big advantage because his folks are so unpalatable to independents.

No Donald, please stop! We can’t take the winning anymore! 

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Js1

Js1 87198

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3 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Barnes is catching Johnson in the betting markets. Wisconsin is starting to look more and more like a true toss up and a viable flip opportunity for the dems. .

First off, betting markets are dumb AF.

Secondly, Wisconsin IS a true tossup.  As The Dog pointed out, when you trail in a fucking Trafalger poll, you're truly losing.  And Marquette is not at Seltzer-level of accurate, but they are good in the state. 

Wisconsin is absolutely the second best flip opportunity after Pennsylvania.  Johnson does not get the Trump benefit this time or the big red wave of 2010. 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15698

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5 hours ago, Js1 said:

First off, betting markets are dumb AF.

Secondly, Wisconsin IS a true tossup.  As The Dog pointed out, when you trail in a fucking Trafalger poll, you're truly losing.  And Marquette is not at Seltzer-level of accurate, but they are good in the state. 

Wisconsin is absolutely the second best flip opportunity after Pennsylvania.  Johnson does not get the Trump benefit this time or the big red wave of 2010. 

I don't understand why people don't appreciate or acknowledge just how weak a candidate Ron Johnson is.  His favorability numbers are shit.  He was elected in the 2010 wave, and then again in a very strong Republican environment in 2016 (particularly strong in the Upper Midwest).  But in both instances, he didn't win with very sizable pluralities.

In anything approaching a neutral environment, he's a loser.  And that's against a generic Democrat.  But I think Mandela Barnes is a very good candidate.  You're not hearing as much about him as you are Fetterman.  But that was a huge recruiting win.

Bottom line--any time a challenger is polling above 50% against an incumbent (as Barnes was in both the Marquette poll from two weeks ago (51%) and the Beacon Research (50%) polls), the incumbent is in a whole world of shit.  At this point, I have a real hard time characterizing this as a "toss-up."  I really think this leans D at this point.

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atomheartbevo

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1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

Bottom line--any time a challenger is polling above 50% against an incumbent (as Barnes was in both the Marquette poll from two weeks ago (51%) and the Beacon Research (50%) polls), the incumbent is in a whole world of shit.  At this point, I have a real hard time characterizing this as a "toss-up."  I really think this leans D at this point.

The incumbent should probably stop talking about trying to get old people back in the job market.

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6780

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Can report that Blake Masters is so fucked he’s running ads as an Independent for Arizona now. Just saw it now during GT Clemson game.

There was discussion earlier in the thread about disliking Dems picking their opponent by boosting MAGA over Moderate, but it’s working according to polls so far. Will have final answer in Nov tho.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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2 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Can report that Blake Masters is so fucked he’s running ads as an Independent for Arizona now. Just saw it now during GT Clemson game.

There was discussion earlier in the thread about disliking Dems picking their opponent by boosting MAGA over Moderate, but it’s working according to polls so far. Will have final answer in Nov tho.

Jaw would hit the floor if masters wins. He should have pretty much no shot.

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B00M

B00M 6735

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28 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Getting a strong Planet of the Apes vibe off of Fetterman in that clip.

caesar-planet-of-the-apes.gif

Off topic but I wonder if that neck posture contributed to the stroke. 

Edited by B00M
Made it more likely or made it worse. I know nothing about strokes
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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19 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Goddamit why did he have to have a fucking stroke.  One of the brightest political stars of the bunch.  So lucky Oz is such a worthless turd.  But they’d prolly be smart to keep Fetterman on Twitter and not behind a podium until the election is over.

They shouldn’t let him speak anymore or debate.  He’s doing horrible.

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Tuco

Tuco 5094

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7 hours ago, bluto said:

What a disgrace of a political system that your choice in PA is dr oz (holy shit, dr effing oz) or a guy who is clearly impaired from a recent stroke. 

The Churchill line about "...in the morning I will be sober, and you will still be ugly" applies.  Fetterman can recover from his brain damage.  Oz will always be Oz. 

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4714

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33 minutes ago, Tuco said:


I haven’t looked at his medical charts, nor could I understand them, but, sure, why not.

The googles are telling me only about 10% of stroke victims fully recover.  Yes he’s younger than the average stroke patient but I think expecting a full return to his previous abilities is setting up for disappointment.

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Tuco

Tuco 5094

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5 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

The googles are telling me only about 10% of stroke victims fully recover.  Yes he’s younger than the average stroke patient but I think expecting a full return to his previous abilities is setting up for disappointment.

How many of them partially recover?  Keep in mind, the President of the United States is about to turn 80.  And Senator Feinstein thinks of him when she complains about younger generations.  

I don't know what parts of Fetterman's brain were damaged.  If it was mostly motor control (including the act of speech), it really doesn't phase me in the least.  Is there any indication he's getting confused?  Memory loss, particularly new memories?  Emotional instability?  Those would concern me.  I also don't think he would be in front of a camera, at all, if that were the case.  

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Js1

Js1 87198

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2 minutes ago, Tuco said:

How many of them partially recover?  Keep in mind, the President of the United States is about to turn 80.  And Senator Feinstein thinks of him when she complains about younger generations.  

I don't know what parts of Fetterman's brain were damaged.  If it was mostly motor control (including the act of speech), it really doesn't phase me in the least.  Is there any indication he's getting confused?  Memory loss, particularly new memories?  Emotional instability?  Those would concern me.  I also don't think he would be in front of a camera, at all, if that were the case.  

Mark Kirk (R-IL) suffered a stroke in 2012 and and served the rest of his term through 2017, even running for re-election in 2016 (and got curb stomped by Tammy Duckworth).  He was recovering away from DC for almost an entire year.  I don't recall any national Republicans worrying about his year long absence to recover or calling for him to step down. 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15698

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53 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Never forget that all our discussions are based on nothing.  Don’t get overconfident about anything. 

Is this maybe a commentary on "polling averages" more than anything?  North Carolina, in particular, had a lot of late movement owing to Cal Cunningham's fucking pecker.  And I think a lot of those polling averages were still counting a lot of polls that predated those revelations.  

Beyond that, there's a garbage in/garbage out aspect to polling averages.  When you include bad polls, as RCP does, you get a bad average.

If you were to take something like fivethirtyeight's model, on the other hand, I think that would've been a lot closer.

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