2022 Senate Elections

[Voldemort86 2259]

The Maine polling average was so bad!  I wish collins would retire sooner rather than later.  We need both of the Maine seats to be blue because of how many easy red states there are. North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, and Idaho having 2 senators each is a joke. Nobody lives there pretty much.

[Voldemort86 2259]

The overly Republican trafalgar group has Budd ahead of Beasley in North Carolina 47-44.  I think this is a pretty good poll because you can probably add 1 or 2 points to the dems for it being a Republican bias.

[Pancho 44437]

Radical racist republicans using Black people as a prop since [insert any date here]
 

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

8 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

The Maine polling average was so bad!  I wish collins would retire sooner rather than later.  We need both of the Maine seats to be blue because of how many easy red states there are. North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, and Idaho having 2 senators each is a joke. Nobody lives there pretty much.

Yeah.  I specifically remember Maine.  We were all excited for weeks leading up to the election then watching results come in 

 

 

[Js1 85085]

38 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Radical racist republicans using Black people as a prop since [insert any date here]
 

 

So Oz is trying to get his base to flip? That’s every GOP fantasy 

[SydneyCarton 47836]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

So Oz is trying to get his base to flip? That’s every GOP fantasy 

Seriously saw that post and came here to say some version of "Well, that's yet another unexpected way Oz has managed to push his natural voting base towards Fetterman."

[Voldemort86 2259]

Not a positive development. We need boldac or whatever his name is to win so that the dems don’t have to worry about this seat.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

 

[Snake Diggity 4614]

On 9/7/2022 at 11:08 PM, Voldemort86 said:

The Maine polling average was so bad!  I wish collins would retire sooner rather than later.  We need both of the Maine seats to be blue because of how many easy red states there are. North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, and Idaho having 2 senators each is a joke. Nobody lives there pretty much.

If California exported people to Wyoming, Utah, and Idaho like they do to Texas, those states would be blue pretty quick.

[Js1 85085]

1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

 

I'm going to scream it until I am hoarse -

STOP COMPARING 2022 TO 2020.  Donald Trump is not on the ballot to juice his unreliable, single issue voters to turnout - that single issue being voting for Donald Trump. 

Polling correctly had Peltola beating Palin in RCV (had her 51-49 and she won 51.5-48.5) 
Polling incorrectly had Molinaro beating Pat Ryan in NY-19 by mid-to-high single digits
The closest polling to MN-01 had the R winning by 8 - he won 4
538 was screaming at us that the Kansas abortion vote was going to be "close" and the only poll released was 47 yes/43 no - no won 59/41. 

Polling has not been systematically in favor of Dems through the entirety of 2022 yet. At this point, they're just saying it without evidence because they're scared to be wrong again.  

Edited September 12, 2022 by Js1

[Texas73 420]

54 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

If California exported people to Wyoming, Utah, and Idaho like they do to Texas, those states would be blue pretty quick.

Is it clear that California's exported people to Texas are making it more blue? 

[SydneyCarton 47836]

14 minutes ago, Texas73 said:

Is it clear that California's exported people to Texas are making it more blue? 

It's clear....that it is doing the opposite. Everyone fleeing California for Texas is Red AF. 

[The Dog 43785]

The big question with the polls is how many of the MAGAs show up without Trump on the ballot compared to the new voters who are mad about the Dobbs decision. 

 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33831]

7 minutes ago, The Dog said:

The big question with the polls is how many of the MAGAs show up without Trump on the ballot compared to the new voters who are mad about the Dobbs decision. 

 

not many versus a helluva lot

[Voldemort86 2259]

11 minutes ago, The Dog said:

The big question with the polls is how many of the MAGAs show up without Trump on the ballot compared to the new voters who are mad about the Dobbs decision. 

 

In blue / purple states, I’d expect low MAGA turnout since it’s a midterm.  In red states, probably still high MAGA turnout.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33831]

1 minute ago, Voldemort86 said:

In blue / purple states, I’d expect low MAGA turnout since it’s a midterm.  In red states, probably still high MAGA turnout.

maybe. but a lot of the magas won't show up. how many, tbd

[Nice Guy Eddie 13406]

Nate Cohn (NYT) cautions about believing in the 2022 polls with some states

https://archive.ph/Nx0vp

 

[Js1 85085]

9 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Nate Cohn (NYT) cautions about believing in the 2022 polls with some states

https://archive.ph/Nx0vp

 

He sums up his whole article as “well you can’t forecast polling errors from cycle to cycle and the polls were mostly good in 2018”

It’s horrible wishy washy prognosticating. They could be, but might not be, but could, even though they didn’t last midterm, but they did in 2020, but you can’t compare errors between cycles, BUT STILL!!!

[Longhorn_Fan68 33831]

who is worse at their job and yet still get away with it?: pollsters or meteorologists?

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

3 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

who is worse at their job and yet still get away with it?: pollsters or meteorologists?

Even the same error as before has a lot bigger negative impact these days.  When you have partisanship baked in so that you have 45/45 on everything and all that matter is the remaining 10, what used to be an acceptable error now means the poll is worthless. A four point error on the poll is 40% of the availability electorate.  

[Longhorn_Fan68 33831]

7 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Even the same error as before has a lot bigger negative impact these days.  When you have partisanship baked in so that you have 45/45 on everything and all that matter is the remaining 10, what used to be an acceptable error now means the poll is worthless. A four point error on the poll is 40% of the availability electorate.  

and that makes sense

[Snake Diggity 4614]

2 hours ago, Texas73 said:

Is it clear that California's exported people to Texas are making it more blue? 

I have not dug into it, so my assumption could be incorrect although that would go against logic imho because they are migrating to urban areas in Texas and I am pretty sure those cities aren’t less blue than 10 years ago.

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

It's clear....that it is doing the opposite. Everyone fleeing California for Texas is Red AF. 

Link?

Edited September 12, 2022 by Snake Diggity

[Biff Tannen 45491]

My anecdotal opinion on the Cali migrants is it's a mix.  Red rurals moving to red rural Texas and blue urbans moving to blue urban areas.  I've seen a lot of Bay Area and San Diego migrants in the past few years in my neck of the woods.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

My anecdotal opinion on the Cali migrants is it's a mix.  Red rurals moving to red rural Texas and blue urbans moving to blue urban areas.  I've seen a lot of Bay Area and San Diego migrants in the past few years in my neck of the woods.

Same. I have some LA folks move to my street in Austin and they aren’t red. 

[SydneyCarton 47836]

14 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I have not dug into it, so my assumption could be incorrect although that would go against logic imho because they are migrating to urban areas in Texas and I am pretty sure those cities aren’t less blue than 10 years ago.

Link?

It's mostly must common sense and observing that little has changed. California is the state with the most Donald Trump voters in the country last election. The people moving to Texas have been cited as moving here for cheaper housing, jobs, looser pandemic restrictions and lower Taxes. Sound like a particular profile?

https://www.texastribune.org/2022/02/02/californians-in-texas/

Quote

Although updated government data points on the number of Californians moving to Texas have been hard to come by, partially due to the pandemic, estimates in the last four to five years are somewhere in the hundreds of thousands. Texas’ appeal comes from a variety of factors, but Friday’s panelists said the most notable lately have been looser pandemic restrictions and greater economic flexibility for businesses and corporations, along with greater affordability compared to the West Coast.

You say that these areas aren't less blue. That's a tough dent to make, even with a million folks moving to Texas from Cali in the last 6-8 years. They could 100% be red, and you split them around Dallas, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio and they still aren't making a dent. On the contrary, why are our statewide elections not really getting closer? People still have to move to a state for jobs, and we know where jobs AREN'T located. 

Some other anecdotal stuff in this one, but it has both sides. 
https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2020/01/13/texas-south-face-political-changes-as-movers-arrive
You'll struggle to convince me that the move blue in the suburbs isn't from just alienating women. If there were a million more blue folks in Texas cities, I don't think we'd be seeing this school board bullshit even remotely succeed, and yet here we are...


But this one seems pretty confdient:
https://www.texaspolicy.com/new-poll-finds-all-those-people-moving-to-texas-arent-going-to-be-voting-for-democrats/

Edited September 12, 2022 by SydneyCarton

[ChuckNorrisActionJeans 2659]

yeah, anecdotal but I had to have a conversation with a Cali family on a boat tour last month in Puerto Vallarta. 

They saw the Texas gear my crew was wearing, and made assumptions about us. Started saying how they were looking for a vacation home in Galveston bc Cali is SO terrible, the homeless, needles etc., and why all the people leaving Cali who would still vote the way they did back home when they're leaving for something better is so stupid etc.

And the dad was a hulking L.A. county deputy who made a point to mention his firearms and had sinister tatts all over his body, including his knuckles. Mom lamented that prices in Galveston had shot up so much the last couple of years. I tried to tell them, housing/taxes aren't low in places like that, property taxes can be insane, and they wouldn't have it.... "but but you don't have state income tax HERR DURR everything so much better there derp"

[RDCanecutter 26246]

19 minutes ago, ChuckNorrisActionJeans said:

yeah, anecdotal but I had to have a conversation with a Cali family on a boat tour last month in Puerto Vallarta. 

They saw the Texas gear my crew was wearing, and made assumptions about us. Started saying how they were looking for a vacation home in Galveston bc Cali is SO terrible, the homeless, needles etc., and why all the people leaving Cali who would still vote the way they did back home when they're leaving for something better is so stupid etc.

And the dad was a hulking L.A. county deputy who made a point to mention his firearms and had sinister tatts all over his body, including his knuckles. Mom lamented that prices in Galveston had shot up so much the last couple of years. I tried to tell them, housing/taxes aren't low in places like that, property taxes can be insane, and they wouldn't have it.... "but but you don't have state income tax HERR DURR everything so much better there derp"

On the bright side, these future Texans from California are possibly descended from Okies.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13406]

2 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

who is worse at their job and yet still get away with it?: pollsters or meteorologists?

Fairly impossible to say that CA transplants are majority red or blue. Most likely it's 55-45 but who knows to what side. I assume that most people moved here due to their job and that has nothing to do with social issues. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19144]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

He sums up his whole article as “well you can’t forecast polling errors from cycle to cycle and the polls were mostly good in 2018”

It’s horrible wishy washy prognosticating. They could be, but might not be, but could, even though they didn’t last midterm, but they did in 2020, but you can’t compare errors between cycles, BUT STILL!!!

I wish I could be shitty at my job then wave my hands around and convince everyone that I’m actually pretty good at my job.

[Ghost of LL 15469]

6 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Nate Cohn (NYT) cautions about believing in the 2022 polls with some states

https://archive.ph/Nx0vp

 

It's amazing to watch "data journalists" actually write long pieces that might as well just be boiled down to "our priors are right; it's the data that must be wrong."

[StassneyHorn 6535]

The margins have come down significantly in Texas. People moving from out of state have helped and young people included. It’s mostly native born Texans closing the gap.

Edited September 12, 2022 by StassneyHorn

[Voldemort86 2259]

28 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

The margins have come down significantly in Texas. People moving from out of state have helped and young people included. It’s mostly native born Texans closing the gap.

Ted Cruz won by less than 5. Terrible candidates like Romney and McCain won by 17 or 13 points respectively.

[Js1 85085]

59 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

It's amazing to watch "data journalists" actually write long pieces that might as well just be boiled down to "our priors are right; it's the data that must be wrong."

That’s exactly what it is. There were alarm bells in 2020 when Garcia (R) beat Smith (D) in a blue House district in a California special election. 

If you just ignore the actual special election data, your priors can’t be wrong! 

Edited September 12, 2022 by Js1

[Bama Chick 28596]

[Underdog 28443]

Can just smell the embalming fluid through my tablet screen from that pic. 

[Horndog 2218]

On 9/7/2022 at 3:16 PM, Aqua Buddha said:

Trump had a small stroke while in office.

He has 95 or so every time he plays golf. 

[High Plains Drifter 10970]

 

 

 

6 hours ago, Hermanator said:

It's because the system was made to protect the rich and privileged. Not for justice. 

The privileged class has a million ways to obfuscate the process while the non rich get railroaded whether guilty or innocent. 

 

Best and most succinct legal summary of all the legal bullshit on this thread.

 

 

 

[Biff Tannen 45491]

10 hours ago, ChuckNorrisActionJeans said:

yeah, anecdotal but I had to have a conversation with a Cali family on a boat tour last month in Puerto Vallarta. 

They saw the Texas gear my crew was wearing, and made assumptions about us. Started saying how they were looking for a vacation home in Galveston bc Cali is SO terrible, the homeless, needles etc., and why all the people leaving Cali who would still vote the way they did back home when they're leaving for something better is so stupid etc.

And the dad was a hulking L.A. county deputy who made a point to mention his firearms and had sinister tatts all over his body, including his knuckles. Mom lamented that prices in Galveston had shot up so much the last couple of years. I tried to tell them, housing/taxes aren't low in places like that, property taxes can be insane, and they wouldn't have it.... "but but you don't have state income tax HERR DURR everything so much better there derp"

Had a client from Alabama on the phone the other day. Just the sweetest old woman at first and then the moment she finds out I’m in texas (I even told her Austin) she starts talking about how the south should secede. Not even in a hateful way, just matter-of-factly. 

[Biff Tannen 45491]

4 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

 

That’s a sad turtle. 

[Sawbonz 27392]

4 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

 

Going all in on migrant caravans full of rapists and fentanyl I guess 

[Biff Tannen 45491]

1 minute ago, Sawbonz said:

Going all in on migrant caravans full of rapists and fentanyl I guess 

Yep. Caravan talk will ramp up about early October. 

[SydneyCarton 47836]

17 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I wish I could be shitty at my job then wave my hands around and convince everyone that I’m actually pretty good at my job.

Clearly you haven’t considered politics. 

[HenryJames 65884]

 

[Gil Bang 25894]

yeah, anecdotal but I had to have a conversation with a Cali family on a boat tour last month in Puerto Vallarta. 
They saw the Texas gear my crew was wearing, and made assumptions about us. Started saying how they were looking for a vacation home in Galveston bc Cali is SO terrible, the homeless, needles etc., and why all the people leaving Cali who would still vote the way they did back home when they're leaving for something better is so stupid etc.
And the dad was a hulking L.A. county deputy who made a point to mention his firearms and had sinister tatts all over his body, including his knuckles. Mom lamented that prices in Galveston had shot up so much the last couple of years. I tried to tell them, housing/taxes aren't low in places like that, property taxes can be insane, and they wouldn't have it.... "but but you don't have state income tax HERR DURR everything so much better there derp"

He’s LASO so there’s 100% chance he’s a piece of shit

[Snake Diggity 4614]

34 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

 

Wow, he sounds great in that clip.  Fingers crossed he’s on his way to 95%+ recovery.

Edited September 13, 2022 by Snake Diggity

[Voldemort86 2259]

Economy, inflation, rail strike look like they’re converging to stop the blue momentum. All of this untimely garbage could make abortion seem like nothing.

[F250 28674]

On 9/12/2022 at 10:26 AM, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

who is worse at their job and yet still get away with it?: pollsters or meteorologists?

$9.95ers

 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33831]

6 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Economy, inflation, rail strike look like they’re converging to stop the blue momentum. All of this untimely garbage could make abortion seem like nothing.

oh ye of little faith. the women haven't forgotten their recent relegation to lower-tier citizens.

[Voldemort86 2259]

11 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

oh ye of little faith. the women haven't forgotten their recent relegation to lower-tier citizens.

What makes me concerned is women are usually the ones who go to the grocery stores and see the sticker shock before anyone else. Grocery store prices are hammering people right now.

[chainsaw 9836]

1 minute ago, Voldemort86 said:

What makes me concerned is women are usually the ones who go to the grocery stores and see the sticker shock before anyone else. Grocery store prices are hammering people right now.

It's even worse in the EU. People aren't understanding that aspect of it.