2022 Senate Elections

[texastough 1129]

We're finally tackling America's obesity problem! (re: food prices)

Edited September 13, 2022 by texastough

[The Dog 44020]

 

[Gil Bang 25935]

 

Edited September 13, 2022 by Gil Bang

[Ghost of LL 15531]

4 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Economy, inflation, rail strike look like they’re converging to stop the blue momentum. All of this untimely garbage could make abortion seem like nothing.

Abortion isn't going away--Lindsay Graham and the Republicans are helping to make sure of that.

I'm pretty chill about inflation.  It's high year-over-year, but it's not really going up any further.  The increase in August was just 0.1 percent; that's after a 0.0 % increase/decrease in July.  And with respect to food--to address your concern about women going to the grocery store--that was up only 0.8% in August.  And that's just not very much.  So the damage on inflation has been done, but already people are starting to forget about it as prices have remained flat for two months now.

And, actually, while prices over all have remained flat, most people's experience is that they're going down.  That's because the price with which they most frequently engage--i.e., gas prices, which they see every time they pass a gas station--has steadily gone down since June.  So I don't think inflation is going to be a huge thing outside a one-day alarmist headline.

The rail strike is the biggest issue.  But the way the Railway Labor Act works, Congress can impose a new contract.  and if a strike actually happens, that's exactly what Congress is going to do.  That's because the PEB recommended a very pro-management contract.  So the Democrats are going to vote in favor of a very pro-management contract and . . . what are the Republicans going to do?  Vote against it and own the strike?  I don't think so.

But then guess who comes out of it looking heroic for having avoided a major economy-endangering event?  Dark motherfucking Brandon, that's who.

[chainsaw 9864]

23 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I don't think inflation is going to be a huge thing outside a one-day alarmist headline.

This is how I feel, too. Only dorks care about this shit. As long as gas prices are low, people have jobs, and the prices of everything else stop rising as fast as they were, it will "feel" to most people like the IRA worked.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13509]

Bolduc winning the GOP primary in NH last night would seem to lock for Hassan now. Never say never but the GOP guy is too Trumpy even for NH.

Bolduc has made the following claims:

• said that the popular GOP governor, Sununu, is a Chinese Communist sympathizer
• appeal the 17th amendment that allows the public to elect Senators. Instead let state legislatures decide.
• abolish the FBI

CNN wrote that Hassan has $31m for the general election and Bolduc has $600K.

[Js1 85307]

CBS has Fetterman up 5, 52-47.

That is entirely more believable than some of the +8 or more polls for Fetterman.  The recalled vote was Biden +1, which is totally in line with 2020 (Biden +1.17).  PA is still pretty polarized, but Fetterman over 50% is the story. 

They do also have Shapiro up 11 in the governor's race, but with the caveats that governor races are less national/more elastic (see: Laura Kelly, Chris Sununu, Charlie Baker, Larry Hogan, Roy Cooper, Glenn Youngkin) and he has a ton more money than Mastriano and is all over the air already. 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33868]

5 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Bolduc winning the GOP primary in NH last night would seem to lock for Hassan now. Never say never but the GOP guy is too Trumpy even for NH.

Bolduc has made the following claims:

• said that the popular GOP governor, Sununu, is a Chinese Communist sympathizer
• appeal the 17th amendment that allows the public to elect Senators. Instead let state legislatures decide.
• abolish the FBI

CNN wrote that Hassan has $31m for the general election and Bolduc has $600K.

I know the $600k is laughable in comparison, but it still boils my blood how much money is wasted on campaigns in this country. The $600k is too fucking much.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13509]

Just now, Js1 said:

CBS has Fetterman up 5, 52-47.

That is entirely more believable than some of the +8 or more polls for Fetterman.  The recalled vote was Biden +1, which is totally in line with 2020 (Biden +1.17).  PA is still pretty polarized, but Fetterman over 50% is the story. 

They do also have Shapiro up 11 in the governor's race, but with the caveats that governor races are less national/more elastic (see: Laura Kelly, Chris Sununu, Charlie Baker, Larry Hogan, Roy Cooper, Glenn Youngkin) and he has a ton more money than Mastriano and is all over the air already. 

I bet that Oz outperforms the polls. There's a growing segment of the GOP that mistrusts polls so if contacted they lie. And another segment that are embarrassed to say they like Oz or Trump.  Fetterman can't let off the gas. 

[Js1 85307]

Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I bet that Oz outperforms the polls. There's a growing segment of the GOP that mistrusts polls so if contacted they lie. And another segment that are embarrassed to say they like Oz or Trump.  Fetterman can't let off the gas. 

I mean, the 538 average is 50.7% - 41.3%. 

He will definitely outperform 41.3%.  He probably has a floor of 45% in this environment.  Even Bob Casey's opponent in 2018 managed 43% in a blue wave against a two-term Senator. 

Fetterman winning 52-47 or something would not be surprising.  It would still be indicative of a great environment for Dems (outperforming Biden by 4 points). 

[RDCanecutter 26408]

1 hour ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

I know the $600k is laughable in comparison, but it still boils my blood how much money is wasted on campaigns in this country. The $600k is too fucking much.

They didn't pile it up in a field and burn it. A bunch of graphic designers, artists, scriptwriters, and slow-motion-walking-through-fields-with-shotguns camera crews are paying rent and eating at small-town diners that eventually clog their arteries then the local hospital makes bank.

[Ghost of LL 15531]

23 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Economy, inflation, rail strike look like they’re converging to stop the blue momentum. All of this untimely garbage could make abortion seem like nothing.

 

18 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Abortion isn't going away--Lindsay Graham and the Republicans are helping to make sure of that.

I'm pretty chill about inflation.  It's high year-over-year, but it's not really going up any further.  The increase in August was just 0.1 percent; that's after a 0.0 % increase/decrease in July.  And with respect to food--to address your concern about women going to the grocery store--that was up only 0.8% in August.  And that's just not very much.  So the damage on inflation has been done, but already people are starting to forget about it as prices have remained flat for two months now.

And, actually, while prices over all have remained flat, most people's experience is that they're going down.  That's because the price with which they most frequently engage--i.e., gas prices, which they see every time they pass a gas station--has steadily gone down since June.  So I don't think inflation is going to be a huge thing outside a one-day alarmist headline.

The rail strike is the biggest issue.  But the way the Railway Labor Act works, Congress can impose a new contract.  and if a strike actually happens, that's exactly what Congress is going to do.  That's because the PEB recommended a very pro-management contract.  So the Democrats are going to vote in favor of a very pro-management contract and . . . what are the Republicans going to do?  Vote against it and own the strike?  I don't think so.

But then guess who comes out of it looking heroic for having avoided a major economy-endangering event?  Dark motherfucking Brandon, that's who.

So, going back to the rail strike, the Republicans are introducing legislation to codify a contract (as can do under the Railway Labor Act) consistent with the terms recommended by the Presidential Emergency Board.  Since it's a bit hard for me to imagine Democrats disagreeing with the recommendations of a PEB that Biden appointed and throwing the economy into a tizzy weeks before a midterm election, this thing is going to get done in Congress and we're not going to have a stupid goddamned rail strike.

[The Dog 44020]

 

[Js1 85307]

3 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

And Marco Rubio is co-sponsoring that abortion ban bill.

What a fucking moron. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13509]

either the GOP Senators are playing 4D chess, or its a complete, intentional breakdown of organization.

I'm thinking that these senators are expecting/planning McConnell to retire soon after this election. They're positioning themselves to take over as the minority leader.

It's good to note that Kentucky recently enacted a law that the governor is required to appoint the replacement from the retiring senator's party. And that party creates a list of 3 candidates that the governor must choose from.  FYI, the governor is a Democrat but the legislature is GOP controlled.

[Js1 85307]

New Wisconsin poll

Johnson 49, Barnes 48 (but Evers up 47-44). Was 52-44 Barnes so work to do in Wisconsin 

[Voldemort86 2259]

[The Dog 44020]

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

4 hours ago, Js1 said:

New Wisconsin poll

Johnson 49, Barnes 48 (but Evers up 47-44). Was 52-44 Barnes so work to do in Wisconsin 

fuck johnson

[Gil Bang 25935]

 

[RDCanecutter 26408]

8 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

 

Dude on the left misses his college ponytail.

[Js1 85307]

 

[Pancho 44756]

Rumblings coming out that Dems are freaked out about polling being incorrect.  There was an article written about it on The Hill, and Chris Hayes had a segment about it the other day.

[chainsaw 9864]

As I been saying, play to the whistle

[babysdaddy 2721]

44 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Rumblings coming out that Dems are freaked out about polling being incorrect.  There was an article written about it on The Hill, and Chris Hayes had a segment about it the other day.

Have they not seen JS1's posts?  they should read them and they'll relax

[David Dennison 18853]

56 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Rumblings coming out that Dems are freaked out about polling being incorrect.  There was an article written about it on The Hill, and Chris Hayes had a segment about it the other day.

Water is wet.

[Js1 85307]

8 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Water is wet.

*Things look good for Dems*

Democrats: 

Edited September 15, 2022 by Js1

[The Dog 44020]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

Rumblings coming out that Dems are freaked out about polling being incorrect.  There was an article written about it on The Hill, and Chris Hayes had a segment about it the other day.

It's clickbait. 

The only place where polls were "off" two years ago was Wisconsin (according to the RCP average - which I prefer over 538 because they don't fuck with the numbers). 

[Voldemort86 2259]

Polling was pretty good in 2018 ( the last midterm). Trump threw off polling in 2020 and made polling look terrible by getting every hate group under the sun to the polls when usually those people stay on the sidelines and spew their garbage to anyone who will listen.

Edited September 15, 2022 by Voldemort86

[SubliminalHorn 6786]

Can’t believe the Senate is punting the same sex marriage vote until after the midterms. Democrats suck so bad at politics 

[Js1 85307]

2 hours ago, The Dog said:

It's clickbait. 

The only place where polls were "off" two years ago was Wisconsin (according to the RCP average - which I prefer over 538 because they don't fuck with the numbers). 

538 had Dems at a 20% chance to take the Senate in 2018. They predicted 52-48 R, it ended up 53-47 R. 

I believe they only majorly missed on 2 races - IN and MO.  They had FL extremely close (Nelson had a 51.6% chance and he lost by 10,000 votes).  They did correctly have Sinema and Rosen winning their races in AZ and NV, and Heitkamp losing in ND. 

They had Dems winning the House 234-201, it ended up 235-199 (one race vacated and re-done in 2019). 

They pretty much pegged the midterms in 2018. 

We all know the 2020 problems. 

Edited September 15, 2022 by Js1

[Sbbruin 21840]

6 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

 

This is the funniest flip flop of all time.  "THE ELECTION WAS STOLEN!!!" (wins primary) "Did I say it was stolen?  What I said was, the election was stolen! NOT!"

[atomheartbevo 89644]

9 hours ago, Sbbruin said:

This is the funniest flip flop of all time.  "THE ELECTION WAS STOLEN!!!" (wins primary) "Did I say it was stolen?  What I said was, the election was stolen! NOT!"

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/15/politics/don-bolduc-election-new-hampshire-senate/index.html
 

Quote

Asked Thursday on Fox News about the 2020 race, Bolduc, a retired Army brigadier general who faces Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan in November, said he’s “done a lot of research on this” and, after speaking with New Hampshire voters, was changing his position.

“I’ve come to the conclusion, and I want to be definitive on this: The election was not stolen,” Bolduc said, adding that while he still believes there was fraud, “Elections have consequences and, unfortunately, President Biden is the legitimate president of this country.”

Quote

The comments marked a U-turn from as recently as last month, when during a primary debate he doubled down on his past false assertions.

“I signed a letter with 120 other generals and admirals saying Trump won the election, and damn it, I stand by [it],” Bolduc said during the mid-August debate.

Quote

Bolduc had in recent week shown some signs that he was beginning a pivot away from the false 2020 election claims that had been central to his candidacy. In an interview with New Hampshire Public Radio published on September 2, he repeatedly demurred when asked about those claims.

Quote

Eventually, though, after the interviewer plainly stated that there was “no evidence that the 2020 election was stolen,” Bolduc tried to distance himself from that language.

“Did I say it was stolen? I didn’t say it was stolen. I said that Granite Staters have issues, and that’s who’s important. I just want to be clear on what I’m saying,” he said.

Quote

Bolduc, though, has long been an exponent of Trump’s lies. In an interview with the New Yorker published in October 2021, he defended his decision to sign on to the letter that said Trump was the 2020 winner and insisted that his rigged election and fraud claims were sincere.

“I very much believe it and I think it exists, and I think it happens and it’s been happening for a long time in this country. When you try to steal the Presidency, a lot of people are going to go, ‘OK, wait a minute. What the hell’s going on here?,’” Bolduc said at the time.

 

[The Dog 44020]

 

[Js1 85307]

538 throwing some cold water on the polling bias freakout

 

[The Dog 44020]

What y'all need to understand is how polling companies put together their likely voter models - it relies heavily on previous voting behavior. 

Trump's backers fucked up some likely voter models since they weren't included in the sample. Why? Because they rarely if ever voted before. This wasn't that bad in 2020 but it was really bad in 2016. He got a lot of people to vote who never did before. 

Now we're seeing an enormous surge of new registrations and overwhelmingly they are voting Democrat (in the elections that have occurred so far) - especially women and those under 30. 

My (too large) gut says the shoe may be on the other foot this time...but I could be wrong of course.

Edited September 16, 2022 by The Dog

[Js1 85307]

4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

What y'all need to understand is how polling companies put together their likely voter models - it relies heavily on previous voting behavior. 

Trump's backers fucked up some likely voter models since they weren't included in the sample. Why? Because they rarely if ever voted before. This wasn't that bad in 2020 but it was really bad in 2016. He got a lot of people to vote who never did before. 

Now we're seeing an enormous surge of new registrations and overwhelmingly they are voting Democrat (in the elections that have occurred so far) - especially women and those under 30. 

My (too large) gut says the shoe may be on the other foot this time...but I could be wrong of course.

Also of this belief. That’s why the Kansas referendum polling was badly wrong.  The screens suck bc they are missing energized women and young voters who weren’t registered before or don’t turn out with regularity. They still have to show up, but they really made fools of the Kansas polls, NY-19, MN-01 polling and while they nailed AK-AL for Pelota v Palin, they overestimated Pelota v Begich in his favor. 

Gotta maintain enthusiasm and get them out to the polls. Ballots are already going out soon.

2018 polling was pretty accurate bc the screens mostly correctly left off those irregular voters who showed up in 2016 for Trump and only Trump. Similar to why 2012 polling was off in favor of the GOP, the voters who only turned out for Obama. 

Edited September 16, 2022 by Js1

[Nice Guy Eddie 13509]

23 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

 

This will be used in the future for how to not handle a flip flop.

He's going to struggle getting past this PR disaster because time is short for people to forget and he's has next to no money. Most likely he will have few or zero invites back to Fox News if he's going to make the GOP look stupid. dead on arrival. 

regardless Hassan needs to run like she's behind. The NH seat is too important to take it for granted.

[Gengs1 2583]

The Ds need to have adds that have the abortion ban is coming if Rs win.

[A-Tex Devil 2446]

19 hours ago, SubliminalHorn said:

Can’t believe the Senate is punting the same sex marriage vote until after the midterms. Democrats suck so bad at politics 

Yeah.... this is just dumb.  I know that they probably don't get the 10 to allow it to get to a vote, but it could push the needle in any Senate race where the GOP candidate hasn't said they'd support the bill.  

I wonder what the backroom deal was that Schumer made to table this.  I don't know how it could be worth it.  I don't get it.

[Js1 85307]

1 minute ago, A-Tex Devil said:

Yeah.... this is just dumb.  I know that they probably don't get the 10 to allow it to get to a vote, but it could push the needle in any Senate race where the GOP candidate hasn't said they'd support the bill.  

I wonder what the backroom deal was that Schumer made to table this.  I don't know how it could be worth it.  I don't get it.

Right? Like I'm supposed to trust these fucks in a lameduck session?  That they're allegedly going to stick to their word to pass same-sex marriage and the Electoral Count Act? 

Schumer better have gotten something really good out of this. 

[Dutchrudder 11137]

21 minutes ago, A-Tex Devil said:

Yeah.... this is just dumb.  I know that they probably don't get the 10 to allow it to get to a vote, but it could push the needle in any Senate race where the GOP candidate hasn't said they'd support the bill.  

I wonder what the backroom deal was that Schumer made to table this.  I don't know how it could be worth it.  I don't get it.

They should make a deal where the Lindsey Graham abortion bill and same-sex marriage bill are both put to a vote. Pitch it as a win-win and see if the Rs take it. 

[The Dog 44020]

3 hours ago, Gengs1 said:

The Ds need to have adds that have the abortion ban is coming if Rs win.

why? the Rs are doing it for them:

 

[Zonahorn 8079]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/peter-thiel-losing-arizona-blake-masters-funding-gop-super-pac-inflation-power-voters-republicans-filibuster-11663280414?page=1
 

Weapons grade copium from the WSJ

Edited September 17, 2022 by Zonahorn

[cactusflinthead 27598]

6 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/peter-thiel-losing-arizona-blake-masters-funding-gop-super-pac-inflation-power-voters-republicans-filibuster-11663280414?page=1
 

Weapons grade copium from the WSJ

You got the story? I ain't giving a goddamn dime to Murdoch. 

 

[Zonahorn 8079]

2 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

You got the story? I ain't giving a goddamn dime to Murdoch. 

 

On mobile so I can’t quote, the TLDR is Republican operative is really mad at McConnell for pulling funding in Arizona. There’s also some really laughable comments about Senator Kelly being vulnerable. 

[Horn Dog 9817]

6 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

You got the story? I ain't giving a goddamn dime to Murdoch. 

 

Spoiler

If Republicans lose a tantalizingly close Arizona Senate race, don’t place the blame entirely at the feet of nominee Blake Masters. Look to his AWOL booster club.

In the Republican push to retake the Senate, the Grand Canyon State ought to be a prime pickup. Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly only narrowly won his 2020 special election. Republican and unaffiliated voters make up the vast majority of the electorate, and most are angry over inflation, border chaos and rising crime. Polls are tightening and suggest Mr. Masters has cut the Kelly lead in half over the past month. He trails by about 4 points in the RealClearPolitics average.

The problem is money, or rather Mr. Masters’ lack of it. Only six weeks ago the nominee emerged from a brutal, expensive five-way primary. Spending even more heavily to ensure a Masters victory was billionaire donor Peter Thiel, who backed his former employee to the tune of $12 million. The Thiel support influenced Donald Trump to endorse Mr. Masters and to hold a rally for him in the run-up to the primary. The New York Times in February described Mr. Thiel as the new “would-be kingmaker” of the GOP.

Only where’s the would-be kingmaker now? Sitting in his counting house, the doors firmly locked. Mr. Thiel has abandoned the Arizona race, as well as the Ohio Senate candidate he spent $15 million to nominate, J.D. Vance. Mr. Trump is meanwhile using this cycle to hoover up grassroots donations that might otherwise go to competitive midterm candidates and so far refuses to commit any of the estimated $99 million in a leadership PAC to his endorsees. The Lucys have pulled the football, leaving the GOP’s Arizona project to fall on its back.

Criticism is landing on Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s Senate Leadership Fund, which recently announced it was canceling $8 million in Arizona ad reservations. But spare a thought for the outfit that has been left holding the Thiel-Trump bag. Resources aren’t infinite, and Mr. McConnell’s super PAC suddenly finds itself having to shovel unexpected millions into defending an Ohio seat that ought to be a breeze but in which (Thiel-less) Mr. Vance is struggling. It’s also defending seats in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. One Nation (affiliated with the Senate Leadership Fund) spent some $13 million in Arizona through Labor Day, and the fund will be playing on television again in October.

But it may prove too late. Mr. Kelly continues to coast on a bio that depicts him as a tough-guy former astronaut as well as a bold moderate who puts Arizona first. “I’m pushing for solutions today, even if it means taking on my own party,” brags a recent ad, in which he says he’s “bringing down gas prices by allowing more domestic oil production.” Another has him declaring his party’s defund-the-police movement “wrong,” and palling around with cops.

Yet it’s notable how much money it has already required for Mr. Kelly to maintain this political facade and defend his narrow lead. His campaign and wealthy outside groups have spent an estimated $60 million to $80 million on his behalf this year alone (as Mr. Masters burned the vast majority of his cash in his primary). Arizona TV is currently wall-to-wall with pro-Kelly and anti-Masters ads, but the Democrat is still below 50% in voter polls.

This suggests real skepticism about Mr. Kelly’s “moderate” shtick, which Arizona Republican operatives are itching to exploit. Tallies show Mr. Kelly has voted 94% with Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s progressive agenda, including his support for Joe Biden’s 2021 “Covid relief” blowout that fueled inflation. He’s voted numerous times to shut down the Keystone pipeline and to allow a ban on fracking. During debate for the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act, Mr. Kelly voted against hiring 18,000 additional Border Patrol agents and for an additional 87,000 Internal Revenue Service auditors. 

The Masters campaign has suffered from a lack of focus and discipline. It needs the dollars to redefine a candidate who emerged from a primary with marks. Yet as with many GOP campaigns, it’s struggling with Trump donor fatigue, as well as soaring inflation that has crimped household budgets and dried up small-dollar donations. Only big-donor money will match the flood of blue groups backing Mr. Kelly.

Some groups see the obvious potential for a win and are investing. A super PAC aligned with Heritage Action announced $5 million for the race, while Saving Arizona PAC staked a $1.5 million ad buy. The Club for Growth is spending and plans to spend more, while the National Republican Senatorial Committee continues to play a role.

But the big question among Arizona Republicans is: Where are the power players when you need them? Playing in the GOP primary sandbox is easy. Yet those “wins” now notched, the kingmakers are abandoning the only vote-counting that really matters, even as the stakes could not be higher? Republican voters shouldn’t forget this moment if a few months from now an expanded Democratic Senate is dismantling the filibuster.

 

 

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13509]

She says that gop small donors all have trump donor fatigue and it’s time for large donors to step up to help Masters. Never once does she attack or blame Trump for any of the problems faced by candidates like Masters.

[Poe It Up 126]

What a squandered opportunity for the Republicans here. They are running some really, really awful candidates and they’ll pay the price. 

[Js1 85307]

25 minutes ago, Poe It Up said:

What a squandered opportunity for the Republicans here. They are running some really, really awful candidates and they’ll pay the price. 

Basically. Masters, Oz, Vance, Buldoc, Budd are all ass. None of them have any appeal to the center, at all. Only Budd and Vance have a real chance of winning bc of the partisan lean of their states. 

You can’t run shitty candidates in purple states and expect to win.