2022 Senate Elections

[GopherRock 1765]

10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Basically. Masters, Oz, Vance, Buldoc, Budd, Johnson are all ass. None of them have any appeal to the center, at all. Only Budd and Vance have a real chance of winning bc of the partisan lean of their states. 

You can’t run shitty candidates in purple states and expect to win. 

FIFY

[Fudge Nuggets 19144]

On 9/16/2022 at 10:38 AM, A-Tex Devil said:

Yeah.... this is just dumb.  I know that they probably don't get the 10 to allow it to get to a vote, but it could push the needle in any Senate race where the GOP candidate hasn't said they'd support the bill.  

I wonder what the backroom deal was that Schumer made to table this.  I don't know how it could be worth it.  I don't get it.

Why are y’all so eager to let the GQP fire up the culture war machine?  Did you not learn fuck all last year when CRT was their play and got them the VA governor seat?

[Pato del Muerto 52336]

GQP candidates appear to me to be an accurate reflection of their voting pool, as it should be. If they can’t win a general election, it’s the party that they should be looking to change. Instead it’s the rules they want changed to make their candidates more electable by a minority. 

Edited September 17, 2022 by Pato del Muerto

[cactusflinthead 27594]

 

[Bozo_Casanova 26271]

49 minutes ago, Poe It Up said:

What a squandered opportunity for the Republicans here. They are running some really, really awful candidates and they’ll pay the price. 

Those are the candidates they choose because that’s who/what the party is right now. 
My god son’s grandfather is the chair of a large GOP county organization. Three months ago he was complaining that Biden’s socialist agenda was driving up gas prices. Now he’s complaining that Joe Biden is using the powers of his office to  drive down gas prices to hold Congress so he can implement his socialist agenda, with stops along the way to accuse Hillary of murder, peer into the contents of Hunter’s laptop and grumble about how Putin, who this man was praising in February, wouldn’t have even invaded Ukraine if the deep state RINOs had not stolen the 2020 election. 
The only thing surprising to me is that the Senate nominees aren’t even angrier and even more devoid of substance. Look at Masters- he’s smart, articulate and clean cut. How did he get nominated without literally frothing at the mouth?

Edited September 17, 2022 by Bozo_Casanova

[Pato del Muerto 52336]

7 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

The senate doesn’t have to follow ADA for reasonable accommodations?

[Poe It Up 126]

32 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Those are the candidates they choose because that’s who/what the party is right now. 
My god son’s grandfather is the chair of a large GOP county organization. Three months ago he was complaining that Biden’s socialist agenda was driving up gas prices. Now he’s complaining that Joe Biden is using the powers of his office to  drive down gas prices to hold Congress so he can implement his socialist agenda, with stops along the way to accuse Hillary of murder, peer into the contents of Hunter’s laptop and grumble about how Putin, who this man was praising in February, wouldn’t have even invaded Ukraine if the deep state RINOs had not stolen the 2020 election. 
The only thing surprising to me is that the Senate nominees aren’t even angrier and even more devoid of substance. Look at Masters- he’s smart, articulate and clean cut. How did he get nominated without literally frothing at the mouth?

There’s some truth to that, but some of it also comes down to bad luck. Parnell’s scandal opened the door for OZ and Walker’s a legitimate sports hero to many despite his mental handicap. To your point, though, one theme I have noticed more than any other in discussions with Republicans is the amount of distrust, it’s at an all time high. 

[cactusflinthead 27594]

44 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

The senate doesn’t have to follow ADA for reasonable accommodations?

Yes, but apparently they have a long way to go to be anywhere near compliant.

"In a biennial report on ADA inspections by the Office of Congressional Workplace Rights for the 114th Congress, released in 2019, more than 2,000 barriers to accessibility were identified, with multiuser restrooms, signage and drinking fountains among the most highly cited for compliance deficiencies. Soap dispensers that require two hands and bathroom doors that hang open were present in both the House and Senate at the time of the report."

https://www.rollcall.com/2020/07/29/congress-still-playing-catch-up-on-accessibility-despite-progress-30-years-after-ada/

[babysdaddy 2718]

[Js1 85085]

What a rag. Not fit for wiping your ass in the woods 

[Biff Tannen 45491]

4 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Those are the candidates they choose because that’s who/what the party is right now. 
My god son’s grandfather is the chair of a large GOP county organization. Three months ago he was complaining that Biden’s socialist agenda was driving up gas prices. Now he’s complaining that Joe Biden is using the powers of his office to  drive down gas prices to hold Congress so he can implement his socialist agenda, with stops along the way to accuse Hillary of murder, peer into the contents of Hunter’s laptop and grumble about how Putin, who this man was praising in February, wouldn’t have even invaded Ukraine if the deep state RINOs had not stolen the 2020 election. 
 

[atomheartbevo 89396]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

Basically. Masters, Oz, Vance, Buldoc, Budd are all ass. None of them have any appeal to the center, at all. Only Budd and Vance have a real chance of winning bc of the partisan lean of their states. 

You can’t run shitty candidates in purple states and expect to win. 

Prior to 2016, none of them would have made it out of their primaries - Republicans would have seen to that. But MAGA is gonna MAGA.

[Bozo_Casanova 26271]

1 hour ago, babysdaddy said:

 

Yeah, well maybe. But what I know for sure is that he’s a great example of some of the worst aspects of a political coalition that not only undermines the political stability of our nation but also just criminalized the necessary Medical steps that were taken to protect my wife’s health when our baby died in the womb at 13 weeks, the most traumatic and lowest moment of our lives. 

There are a ton of people just like us, and we are ALLLLLL going to show up ANGRY on November 8th. It’s not going to matter in some states, but my guess is that in places where it’s close lightweight opportunists like Mehmet Oz are going to get their fucking teeth kicked in. 

Edited September 17, 2022 by Bozo_Casanova

[aggie08 21414]

21 hours ago, Poe It Up said:

To your point, though, one theme I have noticed more than any other in discussions with Republicans is the amount of distrust, it’s at an all time high. 

Gee, it's almost like feeding people non-stop conspiracy theories, emotional grievances, and lies is a bad thing.

[Poe It Up 126]

1 hour ago, aggie08 said:

Gee, it's almost like feeding people non-stop conspiracy theories, emotional grievances, and lies is a bad thing.

I actually think Covid being handled so poorly played a huge role as well. 

[Gil Bang 25894]

[Biff Tannen 45491]

1 hour ago, Poe It Up said:

I actually think Covid being handled so poorly played a huge role as well. 

[Hefeweizen 5307]

46 minutes ago, Poe It Up said:

I actually think Covid being handled so poorly played a huge role as well. 

The party in charge at the start of Covid seemed really well organized with its messaging out of the executive branch.  No way that created any issues.  Neither did the 50 states each adopting a policy based on their political climate.

[Js1 85085]

53 minutes ago, Poe It Up said:

I actually think Covid being handled so poorly played a huge role as well. 

You mean calling it a liberal hoax and all the disinformation from POTUS and the republicans such as:

Drink bleach

Sunlight will kill it

It’ll disappear after the election because it’s fake 

Masks don’t work 

etc. etc. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

You mean calling it a liberal hoax and all the disinformation from POTUS and the republicans such as:

Drink bleach

Sunlight will kill it

It’ll disappear after the election because it’s fake 

Masks don’t work 

etc. etc. 

don’t forget the hated Rush Limbaugh telling millions of his followers that the coronavirus is basically a version of the flu and the dems are conspiring with the media to use this to in his own words “GET TRUMP”.

Im so glad that moron is gone.

[aggie08 21414]

 

29 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It’ll disappear after the election because it’s fake 

God, this one disappointed the fuck out of me seeing how many of my otherwise smart friends/family repeated it, truly believing that the world was banding together so Donald Trump would lose an election.

And, of course, when it didn't disappear, there wasn't even two seconds of self-reflection on how manipulated they allowed themselves to be. Just seamlessly onto the next conspiracy.

Edited September 18, 2022 by aggie08

[Poe It Up 126]

51 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

The party in charge at the start of Covid seemed really well organized with its messaging out of the executive branch.  No way that created any issues.  Neither did the 50 states each adopting a policy based on their political climate.

 

45 minutes ago, Js1 said:

You mean calling it a liberal hoax and all the disinformation from POTUS and the republicans such as:

Drink bleach

Sunlight will kill it

It’ll disappear after the election because it’s fake 

Masks don’t work 

etc. etc. 

It wasn’t just one side, the CDC’s mea culpa admits to as much. Closing schools and masking little kids was plain silly, especially for those of us with toddlers. I can’t tell you how many times I witnessed little kids trying to rearrange those snot rags, all the while rubbing their face with dirty hands. All we could do was laugh. 

[Biff Tannen 45491]

[Poe It Up 126]

1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

Personally, I loved masks. There were no stop and chats at the grocery store. 

[Pato del Muerto 52336]

7 hours ago, Js1 said:

You mean calling it a liberal hoax and all the disinformation from POTUS and the republicans such as:

Drink bleach

Sunlight will kill it

It’ll disappear after the election because it’s fake 

Masks don’t work 

etc. etc. 

you didn’t even bother with the nano tracking chips or mass human sterilization project that was the vaccine.  
 

and obviously Poe doesn’t think like this, but I prefer to be cautious with stuff like this so it doesn’t bother me when agencies and government start from a position of let’s assume it’s bad until we know the extent of it. 
 

that’s why the bomb squad is called, responds, and takes care of empty backpacks from time to time.  We don’t say it’s probably not a bomb and ignore it. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

Arizona Trafalgar poll had lake +4 and Kelly +2.  I highly doubt masters gets within 5 of Kelly. The guy is an awful candidate.

[Neonmoon 38127]

18 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

don’t forget the hated Rush Limbaugh telling millions of his followers that the coronavirus is basically a version of the flu and the dems are conspiring with the media to use this to in his own words “GET TRUMP”.

Im so glad that moron is gone.

It was such a pleasure knowing that fat fuck choked to death on his own blood. 

[tx 3 putt 76296]

6 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

It was such a pleasure knowing that fat fuck choked to death on his own blood. 

that man did more to tear down this country than any foreign enemy. He was the original grifter, made millions and millions to trash this country 

[Tuco 5076]

"J.D. is kissing my ass he wants my support so bad," Trump said.

I love that Trump endorses dipshits in the most dipshitastic way imaginable.  Not, "I know he is a great leader and will advocate strongly for Ohio." Not, "He represents conservative values that made our country what it is."  Nope, Trump just comes right out and says it.  The only qualification that JD needs to be in the Senate is that he is willing to debase himself for Emperor Trump.   I mean, that's got to appeal to independent voters, right? 

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, Tuco said:

"J.D. is kissing my ass he wants my support so bad," Trump said.

I love that Trump endorses dipshits in the most dipshitastic way imaginable.  Not, "I know he is a great leader and will advocate strongly for Ohio." Not, "He represents conservative values that made our country what it is."  Nope, Trump just comes right out and says it.  The only qualification that JD needs to be in the Senate is that he is willing to debase himself for Emperor Trump.   I mean, that's got to appeal to independent voters, right? 

That’s the state of the GOP right now. Suck up to the orange god or else.

[The Dog 43785]

Goofiness in Georgia polling today:

 

[The Dog 43785]

Warnock up 2 in the likely voter model for Marist - not included above.

[Js1 85085]

4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Warnock up 2 in the likely voter model for Marist - not included above.

I mean, in a modeled R+9 electorate for the AJC poll, Walker is only up 2 and under 50.   The last time Georgia was +9 was 2014.  Not even 2016 was +9 for the GOP (Trump +5).   The environment is not 2014. 

The moral of the story from (almost) every Georgia senate poll:

It's going to a run-off.  End of story.  Whining about Walker being up 1 or up 2 or whatever doesn't matter - it's going to a run-off. 

Edited September 20, 2022 by Js1

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

I mean, in a modeled R+9 electorate for the AJC poll, Walker is only up 2 and under 50.   The last time Georgia was +9 was 2014.  Not even 2016 was +9 for the GOP (Trump +5).   The environment is not 2014. 

The moral of the story from (almost) every Georgia senate poll:

It's going to a run-off.  End of story.  Whining about Walker being up 1 or up 2 or whatever doesn't matter - it's going to a run-off. 

A run off seems good for dems. The main reason I say that is Kemp would be off the ballot then after his presumed win over Abrams. I just hope the senate makeup for the run off is 50+ D so that we can afford to lose it.

Edited September 20, 2022 by Voldemort86

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

the walker warnock one is interesting because it is really is just a measure of how strong baseline R is.  the individual candidate has zero going for him beyond name recognition and did not hide that he's not qualified and doesn't have any ideas.  no trump on the ballot to change numbers one way or the other.

[The Dog 43785]

I can't see the AJC poll (paywall bastards) but who here can tell me the obvious problem with the likely voter model from the Marist poll?

[Js1 85085]

Men don't vote at a higher share than women in midterms (+4 in 2014 and +6 in 2018) 
R+8 would be insane, that's not this environment at all (37 R-35 D-28 I in 2014 and 37 D - 33 R - 30 I in 2018) 

Women are also 53% of registered voters in GA - this is public information.  

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13406]

Biden's increasing approval rating is not good news for the GOP. Biden still might be dragging down some candidates but it's a much different story from 3 months ago.

[The Dog 43785]

45 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Men don't vote at a higher share than women in midterms (+4 in 2014 and +6 in 2018) 
R+8 would be insane, that's not this environment at all (37 R-35 D-28 I in 2014 and 37 D - 33 R - 30 I in 2018) 

Women are also 53% of registered voters in GA - this is public information.  

 

Yup. And to be more specific - women voted 54 and 55% in the last two elections in Georgia. The likely voter sample is 51-49 men. That's not going to happen. 

That doesn't necessarily mean this is a bad poll - the registered voter mix is in line with the demographics of Georgia electorate.

So treat it as a "registered voters" poll and ignore the rest.

I'd be interested in seeing the AJC data but it's paywalled so whatever.

[Satchel 6908]

6 hours ago, The Dog said:

Goofiness in Georgia polling today:

That Hershel is polling better than 13% is astonishing.

 

[Biff Tannen 45491]

On 9/19/2022 at 3:36 PM, Tuco said:

"J.D. is kissing my ass he wants my support so bad," Trump said.

I love that Trump endorses dipshits in the most dipshitastic way imaginable.  Not, "I know he is a great leader and will advocate strongly for Ohio." Not, "He represents conservative values that made our country what it is."  Nope, Trump just comes right out and says it.  The only qualification that JD needs to be in the Senate is that he is willing to debase himself for Emperor Trump.   I mean, that's got to appeal to independent voters, right? 

Same as "I love the poorly educated!"

I was thinking about that this morning.  He 100% told these people to their faces that they were stupid and they cheered him on.  That was eye-opening as fuck.

Edited September 20, 2022 by Biff Tannen
fixed

[Biff Tannen 45491]

Also, why is Abrams getting her ass kicked so bad?  She would have won in 2018 if Kemp hadn't cooked the books, or at least come very close.  

[Js1 85085]

13 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Also, why is Abrams getting her ass kicked so bad?  She would have won in 2018 if Kemp hadn't cooked the books, or at least come very close.  

Unfortunately, people like Kemp got a lot of “moderate” credentials by not kowtowing to Trump. That Kemp “stood up” to him and not overturning GA results in 2020 won him some indie/moderate support. 

[Biff Tannen 45491]

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Unfortunately, people like Kemp got a lot of “moderate” credentials by not kowtowing to Trump. That Kemp “stood up” to him and not overturning GA results in 2020 won him some indie/moderate support. 

Which is going to be a very similar situation in 2024 if we end up with Desantis.  A TON of "moderates" or "anti-trump" people are looking for any reason to vote R again and if it isn't dotard, that's all they need.

[Voldemort86 2259]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/north-carolinas-senate-race-break-182102464.html
 

interesting article about Beasley and the senate race in North Carolina nobody is talking about yet.

[Bozo_Casanova 26271]

3 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Also, why is Abrams getting her ass kicked so bad?  She would have won in 2018 if Kemp hadn't cooked the books, or at least come very close.  

It's the Beto problem.  She is tenacious, and a good political strategist, and an admirable person and a leader, but she just isn't a great candidate to flip a statewide race. 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33831]

 

[Biff Tannen 45491]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

It's the Beto problem.  She is tenacious, and a good political strategist, and an admirable person and a leader, but she just isn't a great candidate to flip a statewide race. 

I can't see anything wrong with how you described her.  That's exactly who we should want leading.  That's why I hate this world.  

[Chewbacca 7729]

26 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

It's the Beto problem.  She is tenacious, and a good political strategist, and an admirable person and a leader, but she just isn't a great candidate to flip a statewide race. 

She's a better candidate than Beto, IMO.  

[Longhorn_Fan68 33831]

24 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

She's a better candidate than Beto, IMO.  

agreed, and both are heads and shoulders better than anything the gqp has put forward

Edited September 21, 2022 by Longhorn_Fan68