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2022 Senate Elections

Ghost of LL

By Ghost of LL
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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26271

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42 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I can't see anything wrong with how you described her.  That's exactly who we should want leading.  That's why I hate this world.  

I agree, but she’s already got us.

38 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

She's a better candidate than Beto, IMO.  

Without question. But it’s the same basic issue. 

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Zonahorn
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Bama Chick
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That “majority” has been remembered as something that never actually existed. Let's clear that all up, shall we? Starting January 2009, at the beginning of the 111th Congress, in the month that Bara

Pescado_Rojo
Pescado_Rojo

I'd pay good money to watch Big John Fetterman beat Steve Bannon to death with Roger Stone. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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Is the NC race really that bad tho?  Cunningham would’ve won last year if he could just keep his pants on and Beasley will turn out the black vote, out ran Biden in 2020, and has won statewide several times before. I think there’s a good chance Beasley is being ujderpolled or Budd overpolled.

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Js1

Js1 85085

Posted
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11 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Is the NC race really that bad tho?  Cunningham would’ve won last year if he could just keep his pants on and Beasley will turn out the black vote, out ran Biden in 2020, and has won statewide several times before. I think there’s a good chance Beasley is being ujderpolled or Budd overpolled.

2-3 points under the current polling could be a tied race.  I think it will be closer than FL and more likely to flip than OH.  But it's been fools gold for us in the past.

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Js1

Js1 85085

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9 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org
 

a nasty trafalgar poll from Nevada.

Trafalgar admits they add "shy Trump" voters and no one ever polls NV correctly because of the 24-hour workforce. 

RCP average underestimated Biden's share by 1.5 in 2020
RCP average underestimated Rosen's share by 4 points in 2018
RCP average understimated HRC's share by 2.5 points in 2016
RCP average underestimated Obama's share by 2.2 in 2012
RCP average underestimated Berkley's share by 0.7 in 2012
RCP average underestimated Reid's share by 4.8 points in 2010

Nevada is too hard to poll.  They always underestimated Dem vote share, sometimes significantly. 

Until the GOP wins a statewide race in Nevada (haven't since 2014 governor), I will not worry about Nevada because no one can figure out how to poll it. 

Edited by Js1
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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That’s a good point. Backed up by facts. The main person I listen to in Nevada is Ralston, but can’t listen to him until about 2 weeks before Election Day so this crap is all we have to go off of until then.

meanwhile…… cook political moved Arizona from toss up to lean D.  I knew masters was shit and probably wouldn’t win. Arizona would be crazy to elect that guy. The candidates in Arizona and New Hampshire are amazingly bad.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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Idiots on predict it think the senate is shifting the GOP’s way. The only races I’m worried about right now is Nevada and Georgia.  New Hampshire, Arizona, and Pennsylvania should be 5+ point leads at this point.

I think you guys are right tho. I’ll believe Nevada goes red when I actually see it. Georgia probably is closer to 50-50 now with Kemp being o strong and Abrams bombing.

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Js1

Js1 85085

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4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

The recalled sample in this poll is Trump +8. Trump won in 2020 by… 8.03. If Vance won every single undecided (which from the poll, is mostly women and voters under 50), he’d win 54-46 which is what Trump won and not great nationwide 

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Willfully Horn

Willfully Horn 7913

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What effect do you political mavens think Liz Cheney will have, say in PA, and GA, as she campaigns for the D candidates. Will she sway some of those moderates for whom standing up to Trump is enough?

I give the lady credit, and want to believe she’d be as tenacious defending the Republic against any threat, and that she isn’t just a Trump hater.

https://www.texastribune.org/2022/09/24/liz-cheney-texas-tribune-festival/amp/

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15469

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55 minutes ago, Willfully Horn said:

What effect do you political mavens think Liz Cheney will have, say in PA, and GA, as she campaigns for the D candidates. Will she sway some of those moderates for whom standing up to Trump is enough?

I give the lady credit, and want to believe she’d be as tenacious defending the Republic against any threat, and that she isn’t just a Trump hater.

https://www.texastribune.org/2022/09/24/liz-cheney-texas-tribune-festival/amp/

Zero.  None.  Nada.  Zilch.  Bupkis.  

Liz Cheney has no constituency.  Absolutely nobody is going to hear her and decide, "you know, I did like Trump and the Republicans, but now, I just don't know."  Nobody.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13406

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Posted
1 hour ago, Willfully Horn said:

What effect do you political mavens think Liz Cheney will have, say in PA, and GA, as she campaigns for the D candidates. Will she sway some of those moderates for whom standing up to Trump is enough?

I give the lady credit, and want to believe she’d be as tenacious defending the Republic against any threat, and that she isn’t just a Trump hater.

https://www.texastribune.org/2022/09/24/liz-cheney-texas-tribune-festival/amp/

 

6 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Zero.  None.  Nada.  Zilch.  Bupkis.  

Liz Cheney has no constituency.  Absolutely nobody is going to hear her and decide, "you know, I did like Trump and the Republicans, but now, I just don't know."  Nobody.

She still received 30% of the WY primary voters so it's incorrect to say that she has zero pull in the GOP. I think most republicans think of her as a traitor and worse than Hillary but not all of them.

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4614

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9 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Been saying it for weeks, but if Masters wins there is something wrong with this country. Guy is one of the worst senate candidates of all time. Kelly should win by 5-10 points.

If Walker, Masters, or Oz becomes a Senator, we are turbofucked.  Each of those would start off their career as on the list for worst Senator ever.

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52336

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10 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Been saying it for weeks, but if Masters wins there is something wrong with this country. Guy is one of the worst senate candidates of all time. Kelly should win by 5-10 points.

Something is wrong with this country if the worst senate candidate ever only loses by 5-10 points. 

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Js1

Js1 85085

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44 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Luther strange gives him a run for his money. Trump called him to support the GOP “healthcare” plan and he sucked trumps dick better than Melania or stormy Daniels ever did.

Meh. If your standard is “sucks Trump’s dick” you have a low standard. Tuberville doesn’t know how our government actively works or is organized. Luther Strange was a lawyer and Alabama AG. 

Whole different universe than Tuberville/Walker. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13406

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Dems seem to be sleeping somewhat on the NV senate race. Small population so the winning total doesn't require much. Also, as much as Dems want to believe the Vegas union workers will bring it home for the Dem candidate, that group of workers was slammed with covid shutdowns and mask mandates. Who knows the impact.

I cancelled 2 vegas trips over the last 2 years when the Dem governor declared that masks were required indoors. I could have easily worn a mask but I didn't want to spend my vacation wearing a mask. I preferred to stay home and postpone it for some date in the future.

I'm not calling the race for the GOP but you have to be careful pouring money into PA to win by 10 and narrowly lose NV.

 

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Js1

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19 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Dems seem to be sleeping somewhat on the NV senate race. Small population so the winning total doesn't require much. Also, as much as Dems want to believe the Vegas union workers will bring it home for the Dem candidate, that group of workers was slammed with covid shutdowns and mask mandates. Who knows the impact.

I cancelled 2 vegas trips over the last 2 years when the Dem governor declared that masks were required indoors. I could have easily worn a mask but I didn't want to spend my vacation wearing a mask. I preferred to stay home and postpone it for some date in the future.

I'm not calling the race for the GOP but you have to be careful pouring money into PA to win by 10 and narrowly lose NV.

 

CCM raised a record amount for a NV Senate candidate in 2Q.  After setting another record in 1Q. 

She's not hurting for money.  She's been all over the airwaves in English and Spanish since the summer. 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15469

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51 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Dems seem to be sleeping somewhat on the NV senate race. Small population so the winning total doesn't require much. Also, as much as Dems want to believe the Vegas union workers will bring it home for the Dem candidate, that group of workers was slammed with covid shutdowns and mask mandates. Who knows the impact.

I cancelled 2 vegas trips over the last 2 years when the Dem governor declared that masks were required indoors. I could have easily worn a mask but I didn't want to spend my vacation wearing a mask. I preferred to stay home and postpone it for some date in the future.

I'm not calling the race for the GOP but you have to be careful pouring money into PA to win by 10 and narrowly lose NV.

 

Nevada : Republicans :: Florida : Democrats.

I'm not super-worried about it.

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11763

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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Dems seem to be sleeping somewhat on the NV senate race. Small population so the winning total doesn't require much. Also, as much as Dems want to believe the Vegas union workers will bring it home for the Dem candidate, that group of workers was slammed with covid shutdowns and mask mandates. Who knows the impact.

I cancelled 2 vegas trips over the last 2 years when the Dem governor declared that masks were required indoors. I could have easily worn a mask but I didn't want to spend my vacation wearing a mask. I preferred to stay home and postpone it for some date in the future.

I'm not calling the race for the GOP but you have to be careful pouring money into PA to win by 10 and narrowly lose NV.

 

This. 
Name id challenger who has served in the state is not good.

While Laxalt is an election denier, he’s not 9th circle of hell crazy.

He’s deacon / republican / white guy handsome that everyone who votes R loves.

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