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2022 Senate Elections

Ghost of LL

By Ghost of LL
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Zonahorn
Zonahorn
Bama Chick
Bama Chick

That “majority” has been remembered as something that never actually existed. Let's clear that all up, shall we? Starting January 2009, at the beginning of the 111th Congress, in the month that Bara

Pescado_Rojo
Pescado_Rojo

I'd pay good money to watch Big John Fetterman beat Steve Bannon to death with Roger Stone. 

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Doc Sam Beckett

Doc Sam Beckett 5854

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On 3/18/2021 at 8:19 AM, Bama Chick said:


We’re going to go from having one great Senator and one decent for a Republican Senator to battling y’all and Kentucky for the most awful pair of senators.

 

1 hour ago, Bama Chick said:

I got to get out of this place.

My daughter is looking at UT for law school.

I may just follow her.
 

 

spacer.png

 

 

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Satchel

Satchel 6965

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On 3/18/2021 at 10:19 AM, Bama Chick said:

Yeah - that event is happening right down the road and he’s bringing special guest STEPHEN MILLER.


We’re going to go from having one great Senator and one decent for a Republican Senator to battling y’all and Kentucky for the most awful pair of senators.

It will be a duel to the death between Texas and Alabama since they’re all different cheeks from the same ass.

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Js1

Js1 86756

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Zonahorn said:

If Kyrsten makes me put up with Senator Doug Ducey I'm gonna fucking lose it

Sinema’s Independence Costs Democratic Support | OH Predictive Insights – Phoenix AZ

EDIT; I just remembered she's up in 2024 oh well, too lazy to delete it.

Yeah 2024 is a LONG way off. Focus on giving Kelly his 6 year term first. 

Sinema will likely benefit from a presidential year turnout. 

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

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23 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah 2024 is a LONG way off. Focus on giving Kelly his 6 year term first. 

Sinema will likely benefit from a presidential year turnout. 

Ducey declined to run against Kelly, he'll win his full term.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15660

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On 3/18/2021 at 10:19 AM, Bama Chick said:

Yeah - that event is happening right down the road and he’s bringing special guest STEPHEN MILLER.


We’re going to go from having one great Senator and one decent for a Republican Senator to battling y’all and Kentucky for the most awful pair of senators.

Look--game gotta recognize game.  And while Alabama's are far stupider, Kentucky's are by far the most awful (even if solely by virtue of McConnell being much more powerful).

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6755

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5 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

NOT a senate race, but there is a statewide election in Wisconsin for the HBIC of Public Schools today. Will be a data point for 2022 and probably be nit picked to death regarding what party is motivated.

Dr. Jill Underly has won this totally cool, nonpartisan race. Wisconsin Dems appear to have a great structure in place after so many hand in pud moments with Scott Walker in the early 2010s

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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51 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Dr. Jill Underly has won this totally cool, nonpartisan race. Wisconsin Dems appear to have a great structure in place after so many hand in pud moments with Scott Walker in the early 2010s

Ben Wikler for the win.

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406W30th

406W30th 1111

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15 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Dr. Jill Underly has won this totally cool, nonpartisan race. Wisconsin Dems appear to have a great structure in place after so many hand in pud moments with Scott Walker in the early 2010s

When they can't gerrymander the fuck out of the race, the GOP tends to lose.

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Js1

Js1 86756

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7 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Goddamn right 

 

I have to agree with Nate.  Even though he's a shitty pundit.

However, it's more than "the stakes are existential" - Democrats have traded low propensity, white working class voters who don't show up often in midterms for high educated, suburban voters who vote every election. 

Keep passing popular legislation and 2022 midterms will look pretty good.  With the continuing bluing of the suburbs, GOP have some painful redistricting attempts - they win the 2022 battle, but they'll likely lose the long-term war by 2026/2028. 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15660

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

I have to agree with Nate.  Even though he's a shitty pundit.

However, it's more than "the stakes are existential" - Democrats have traded low propensity, white working class voters who don't show up often in midterms for high educated, suburban voters who vote every election. 

Keep passing popular legislation and 2022 midterms will look pretty good.  With the continuing bluing of the suburbs, GOP have some painful redistricting attempts - they win the 2022 battle, but they'll likely lose the long-term war by 2026/2028. 

Get out of my brain.

I agree with you that this realignment creates a lot of uncertainty.  The standard has always been that Republicans outperform in midterms because they have highly educated white suburbanites that vote in every election.  But if those voters are now Democrats, then that may be turned upside down.  But right now, it's not at all clear how that is going to work out.

But even aside from that, a lot of the Trumpublican base rests on people who are not only poorly educated and poorly engaged, but have low social engagement/trust.  They'll show up for Trump when he's on the ballot, but they're hard to engage when he's not, as evidence by the 2018 midterms and the 2021 Georgia Senate elections.  

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406W30th

406W30th 1111

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Wisconsin state Treasurer Sarah Godlewski announced her senate candidacy today.

Still no official word from Ron Johnson if he'll seek a third term, though he recently got an enthusiastic endorsement from Trump so it seems likely. Plus he's a dumb sociopathic asshole, so there's that.

She's the third candidate to announce, along with Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson and son-of-billionaire/Bucks owner Alex Lasry. 

 

 

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

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3 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Charles Booker has formed his exploratory committee in Kentucky and likely run against Rand Paul. Barely missed out on taking out Amy McGrath last go around in the primary.

God, that whole race pisses me off. Such a colossal waste. 

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3965

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On 4/14/2021 at 12:32 PM, StassneyHorn said:

Charles Booker has formed his exploratory committee in Kentucky and likely run against Rand Paul. Barely missed out on taking out Amy McGrath last go around in the primary.

He's a much better candidate but he still probably has almost no chance.

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

 

They always have McSally.  Probably going to end up Blake Masters (yes that's his name, cousin to Robin?), who comes from the VC world and will have a mountain of money behind him.  He hasn't formally declared though.

 

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6755

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2 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

He's a much better candidate but he still probably has almost no chance.

For sure uphill, but if Trump doesn’t engage and the Dem numbers come out it’s always a fighting chance. Plenty of Dems have won statewide in Republican states lately with Beshear in KY, Jon Bel Edwards in LA, Manchin  in WVA (as always) and Tester in MT in 2018. I think Sherrod Brown was 2018 in OH. Unfortunately they’re white and he isn’t, but do your best retail politics and their is a chance. There’s a lane to run with populist economic arguments and railing on rich folks in these states.

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RDCanecutter

RDCanecutter 26817

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8 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

Just want to say that John Fetterman's wife, Giselle Fetterman, is a very, very sexy. Is there any woman on the planet named Giselle who is NOT sexy?  I think such a thing violates the laws of physics. 

gisele-fetterman.jpg?w=790%26f=9c8962f8b


giselefetterman-1.jpg&f=1&nofb=1


GiseleFettermanPhoto.jpg&f=1&nofb=1


Gisele-Barreto-Fetterman.jpg&f=1&nofb=1
 

One man's sexy is another man's Sumerian Desert Demon.

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Js1

Js1 86756

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Just to recap some recent news -

  • Steve Stivers, OH-15 rep and potential OH-Sen candidate, is leaving the House early to run the Ohio Chamber of Commerce, so he's likely out
  • Ken Buck, CO-04 rep, says no to challenging Michael Bennett
  • Paul Gosar raises paltry sum, unlikely to challenge Mark Kelly
  • Best name so far for GA-SEN is former Democrat Vernon Jones (lol)
  • Mike Gallagher, WI-08, continues to say no to a bid for the seat if Johnson retires (would be a strong AF candidate) 
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Bruh Man

Bruh Man 3160

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5 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

You mean like (checks notes) the current President of the United States?

Yup exactly. It helped Biden, it will help Dems win more House/Senate seats in the midwest. It is what it is with the demos in these states.

Edited by Bruh Man
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Js1

Js1 86756

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State of the 2022 Senate Races that aren't just incumbents running again in safe seats: 

  • Alabama - Selby (R) retiring - will be filled by an R, the only 2 announced are Mo Brooks (blech) and Lynda Blanchard, Trump's ambassador to Slovenia.  No Dems have jumped in - both Terri Sewell and Doug Jones have declined.  R lock
  • Alaska - Murkowski (R) running for re-election - obviously Murkowski is in, as is Kelly Tshibaka (R).  No Dems or independents yet.  Top 4 in a jungle primary go to the general, where Alaska will utilize rank-choice voting.  R lock, as Democrats would (smartly) vote Murkowski as their second choice to ensure she wins over a Trumpy R
  • Arizona - Kelly (D) running for full term - some software engineer has announced, but no big names yet. Governor Doug Ducey publicly declined, but could change his mind.  D lean due to the best candidate (Ducey) saying no
  • Florida - Rubio (R) running for re-election.  Was a lot of early chatter of a primary by Ivanka, but she declined.  Democrats have a boat load of decent options - Stephanie Murphy, Anna Eskamani, Nikki Fried (only statewide elected Dem), Gwen Graham.  David Jolly (independent) also running.  R likely, will depend on the D candidate
  • Georgia - Warnock (D) running for full term.  Doug Collins is out. Perdue is out. Herschel Walker might be the frontrunner.  With Abrams/Warnock as the top 2, gotta give this to the Rev. D lean
  • Iowa - Grassley (R) undecided on re-election or retirement. If he retires, his grandson would likely run.  Current US Rep Axne, former Rep Fikenauer, 2020 candidate Greenfield and Iowa Auditor Rob Sands are all possible 2022 candidates. Grassley runs - R lock.  Grassley retires - R likely (depending on Dem candidate)
  • Missouri - Blunt (R) retiring.  Greitens, Schmitt are in.  Basically every R House member is looking into it.  No big name Democrats have declared - Galloway (only statewide D) declined, McCaskill declined, Kander declined. R lock
  • Nevada - Cortez-Masto (D) running for re-election. The biggest name/thread on the R side, former Governor Sandoval, declined.  The names left are has-beens, losers and retreads. D lean
  • New Hampshire - Hassan (D) running for re-election.  The 2 biggest names, 2016 loser Ayotte and current Governor Sununu, are still on the board. D lean, unless Sununu runs, then tossup
  • North Carolina - Burr (R) retiring.  The third biggest prize on the board.  Dems have some great candidates in - former NC Supreme Court Chief Justice Beasley, current state senator Jeff Jackson.  GOP has former Rep Mark Walker and former governor McCrory and Lara Trump is exploring a run.  Tossup
  • Ohio - Portman (R) retiring.  The fourth biggest prize on the board.  Tim Ryan in for the Dems - looks like he'll clear the field.  GOP primary will be nasty - Josh Mandel, Jane Timken.  Likely R
  • Pennsylvania - Toomey (R) retiring. Biggest prize on the board.  Dems have a good field - LG Fetterman, Kenyatta. Republicans have 2016/2018 losers, waiting on a couple former Reps or 2018 candidates who lost. Tossup
  • Wisconsin - Johnson (R) undecided.  Kenosha County Sheriff (R) will run if Johnson does not.  Scott Walker declined. Couple current Reps and former Reps may also run.  On the Dem side, a great slate - current state Treasurer Godlewski, SVP of the Bucks Lasre, Tom Nelson, Outagamie County Exec.  Some others may jump in (LG Mandela Barnes). Tossup regardless 

TLDR:

  GOP Dem
Not up in 2022 30 36
Lock 14 10
Likely 3 0
Lean 0 4
Tossup 3 0

 

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Bruh Man

Bruh Man 3160

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That's a good synopsis @js1

I agree w/ most of it accept I put NH lean R if Sununu runs (which I believe he is), I think NC is lean D w/ Jeff Jackson as the candidate, and I think Ohio is a toss up w/ Tim Ryan in the race. I would not be surprised if we still have a 50-50 Senate after the midterms.

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Bruh Man

Bruh Man 3160

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3 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


Counterpoint, Ohio.

The top 3 options on the Republican side right now are a woman, a Jew, and a VC married to an Indian. Not exactly the demographics that fire up the MAGA base.

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bluto

bluto 4969

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The top 3 options on the Republican side right now are a woman, a Jew, and a VC married to an Indian. Not exactly the demographics that fire up the MAGA base.

Sounds like tanner listing off the Chico Bail Bonds Bears roster.
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Js1

Js1 86756

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11 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

That's a good synopsis @js1

I agree w/ most of it accept I put NH lean R if Sununu runs (which I believe he is), I think NC is lean D w/ Jeff Jackson as the candidate, and I think Ohio is a toss up w/ Tim Ryan in the race. I would not be surprised if we still have a 50-50 Senate after the midterms.

New Hampshire - not ready to call it lean R.  Opposite party governors running for Senate hasn't really worked out well - they poll well 18 months before the election and then voters remember who they are and come home.  Hassan beat an incumbent in a meh year for Democrats nationally (2016) so she is not weak.  Sununu could just end up like 2018 Phil Bredesen or 2020 Steve Bullock.  

North Carolina is the Dems' Lucy with the football.  2014, 2016, 2020.  I would not call it lean - Democrats can and are still losing ground in western NC and haven't yet maximized gains in Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro, Wilmington yet to make up for it.  I like Jeff Jackson a lot though.

Ohio - I can't give it toss-up.  I know Sherrod Brown won in 2018, but he's an institution.  He's been a statewide elected official for a long time- 8 years as SOS and and 14 years as Senator.  I like Tim Ryan a lot, I think he and Nan Whaley (Governor candidate) will be a great ticket - he maximizes WWC turnout and she gets the suburban vote.  But it's still not there yet. 

But I do agree, the odds of 50/50 for another 2 years in extremely high.  Democrats need to capitalize in 2022 to win 1-2 seats (PA/WI) and keep GA/AZ/NV/NH.  Add DC and then 2024 doesn't look as scary (WV, MT, OH all up again). 

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TheStoicPaisano

TheStoicPaisano 9947

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Ohio has exactly three reps who aren’t 5+ terms in, and two of those were midcycle replacements (Tiberi indictment and Boehner retirement). Even Anthony Gonzalez had help in ‘18 with Renacci focusing on a failed Senate bid. I don’t know when a district last switched parties.

Between gerrymandering and Ryan/Stivers leaving, this is gonna be an interesting 18 months. R’s want to redraw things to push Ryan/Youngstown red. Dems want to shrink Stivers district to parts of Franklin County and the close southern Columbus suburbs. Stivers leaving for CofC helps. Then you have noisy MAGAts primarying Gonzalez and the Timken/Mandel/Vance triangle match. I think Timken prevails this go-around, with Vance in ‘24. 

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