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2022 Senate Elections

Ghost of LL

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Zonahorn
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Bama Chick
Bama Chick

That “majority” has been remembered as something that never actually existed. Let's clear that all up, shall we? Starting January 2009, at the beginning of the 111th Congress, in the month that Bara

Pescado_Rojo
Pescado_Rojo

I'd pay good money to watch Big John Fetterman beat Steve Bannon to death with Roger Stone. 

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Doug Collins doesn't want to run against Trump's hand-picked candidates.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/26/politics/doug-collins-not-running-senate-georgia-governor/index.html

Quote

Former Rep. Doug Collins, a top ally of former President Donald Trump, announced Monday he will not run for office in 2022, taking out a potential top-tier candidate for a crucial Georgia race that could determine the future control of the Senate.

For months, Collins weighed a bid against Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, but Trump has signaled his support for football great Herschel Walker, effectively freezing the GOP primary field as Walker makes his decision.

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But Collins had no appetite for a brutal primary fight like in 2020, when he ran against Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler, after she was appointed rather than himself to the job by Gov. Brian Kemp. Loeffler beat Collins, and then lost to Warnock by two points. Collins also officially declined on Monday to run against Kemp, who drew Trump's ire for certifying his loss in the state against Joe Biden.

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Florida GOP Sen. Rick Scott, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, had discussed the last cycle with Collins, when the NRSC -- under a different staff and leadership -- torched Collins' campaign in order to secure the primary for the incumbent Loeffler. Scott assured Collins that the NRSC would not get involved in the open 2022 primary. In March, the Republican consulting firm OnMessage, which counts Scott among its top clients but is not affiliated with any Georgia Senate candidate, released a poll showing Collins in the strongest position in the GOP primary.

 

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Js1

Js1 85112

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On 2/17/2021 at 10:27 AM, 406W30th said:

Milwaukee Bucks' Executive Alex Lasry Enters U.S Senate Race

33-year old son of a billionaire, who never lived in Wisconsin until his dad bought the basketball team and made the taxpayers pay for the stadium. Sounds about right.

He's only the second candidate to announce, but he has the support of a couple of prominent Black leaders in Milwaukee (County Exec David Crowley and the President of the Milwaukee County Common, Chevy Johnson), which I'm guessing means that Mandela Barnes will not be running. That's a real shame because Barnes is fucking awesome and is a name recognized statewide. (He's currently our lieutenant governor.)

Lasry will lose to Ron Johnson if he wins the nomination. 

Lasry with the first big in-state endorsement: 

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2021/05/06/teamsters-endorse-democrat-alex-lasry-2022-u-s-senate-race/4964634001/

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Alex Lasry will get the first major labor endorsement in the 2022 U.S. Senate race.

Wisconsin Teamsters Joint Council 39 will formally endorse Lasry at a news conference Thursday morning in Milwaukee, according to an advisory from the Lasry campaign.

Teamsters Joint Council 39 represents more than 18,000 workers at four locals across Wisconsin, the Lasry campaign said.

 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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Pennsylvania should be lean dem if Fetterman wins dem nomination. If Johnson runs again in Wisconsin, I’d put that one as tilt D just because of how much of a douche Johnson is.

grassley just needs to retire or pass away before the 2022 midterms.

dems really need to go +1 in the senate in 2022 because they will lose West Virginia in 2024 for sure.

Edited by Voldemort86
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Js1

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1 hour ago, GopherRock said:

Whether it's against Chuck Grassley or not, the Dems will have at least 1 really good candidate in 2022. 

 

 

She wasn't a farmer but Theresa Greenfield was 100x better as a candidate than Joni Ernst and lost.  It was not close.

Joni Ernst didn't even know the price of soybeans in Iowa.  Greenfield was talking about that shit like it was second nature.

Ernst is in the US Senate. Greenfield is not.

Iowa gives no fucks - Grassley could shit himself and then wipe his ass with a corn cob and still win if he runs. 

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Voldemort86

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Posted
Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Js1 said:

She wasn't a farmer but Theresa Greenfield was 100x better as a candidate than Joni Ernst and lost.  It was not close.

Joni Ernst didn't even know the price of soybeans in Iowa.  Greenfield was talking about that shit like it was second nature.

Ernst is in the US Senate. Greenfield is not.

Iowa gives no fucks - Grassley could shit himself and then wipe his ass with a corn cob and still win if he runs. 

I know it’s cruel but I hope Grassley gets sick or something before Election Day.  The guy isn’t going to serve out his fucking term. He’s 88 years old this is fucking ridiculous. Either retire or die asshole.

Edited by Voldemort86
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Voldemort86

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4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Stephanie Murphy declined to run against Marco Rubio. She may wait until Voldemort is up in 2024. Primary is Val Demings’ and no one else 

Florida is a difficult state to understand. “Voldemort” is undefeated in statewide races there. He’s won 3 huge huge races.

Trump won Florida twice and performed better than expected both times.

yet…..Obama won Florida twice?

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Js1

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Posted
Posted
Just now, Voldemort86 said:

Florida is a difficult state to understand. “Voldemort” is undefeated in statewide races there. He’s won 3 huge huge races.

Trump won Florida twice and performed better than expected both times.

yet…..Obama won Florida twice?

Scott barely won in GOP friendly years of 10 and 14. Being rich has perks, he just floods the airways. 

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Bateshorn

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Posted
Posted
On 4/26/2021 at 12:39 PM, Bruh Man said:

That's a good synopsis @js1

I agree w/ most of it accept I put NH lean R if Sununu runs (which I believe he is), I think NC is lean D w/ Jeff Jackson as the candidate, and I think Ohio is a toss up w/ Tim Ryan in the race. I would not be surprised if we still have a 50-50 Senate after the midterms.

The problem for Sununu is his brand is anti-Trump.  How that plays in a Senate race is difficult to predict.

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Js1

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11 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

The problem for Sununu is his brand is anti-Trump.  How that plays in a Senate race is difficult to predict.

This. Would the Trumps come out against him? Also no guarantee his in-state popularity extends into a senate campaign. Big difference and states don’t split much anymore.  See: 2018 senate races when all those Dems lost in red states.  Phil Bredesen and Steve Bullock are good examples - popular governors but couldn’t get past their state’s partisan lean for a federal election  

Sununu, Baker, Phil Scott, Hogan, JBE, Laura Kelly have know their appeal for gov wouldn’t match their appeal for senate. 

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Voldemort86

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42 minutes ago, Js1 said:

This. Would the Trumps come out against him? Also no guarantee his in-state popularity extends into a senate campaign. Big difference and states don’t split much anymore.  See: 2018 senate races when all those Dems lost in red states.  Phil Bredesen and Steve Bullock are good examples - popular governors but couldn’t get past their state’s partisan lean for a federal election  

Sununu, Baker, Phil Scott, Hogan, JBE, Laura Kelly have know their appeal for gov wouldn’t match their appeal for senate. 

If Bullock can’t win Montana’s senate seat, I doubt sununu or Baker can win New Hampshire / Massachusetts senate seats.

when it comes to the senate, people want a candidate from “ their side” representing them and hardly ever will compromise on that.

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Fudge Nuggets

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4 hours ago, GopherRock said:

Whether it's against Chuck Grassley or not, the Dems will have at least 1 really good candidate in 2022. 

 

 

Call me jaded or whatnot, but after ten seconds I felt this was the male version of MJ Hager that subbed a combine for the Harley.  Any word on if this guy survived any helicopter crashes?

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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3 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Call me jaded or whatnot, but after ten seconds I felt this was the male version of MJ Hager that subbed a combine for the Harley.  Any word on if this guy survived any helicopter crashes?

Hagar was a good house candidate but stunk as a senate candidate. We definitely need to do better.

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406W30th

406W30th 1111

Posted
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Another entry into the crowded Wisconsin Dem primary – State Senator Chris Larson.

I've been hoping he was going to run. He and Nelson are the most progressive of the candidates, and I like them both, but Larson has more name recognition and will drive more turnout in Milwaukee and Madison. I still worry about Lasry buying his way into the general but I'm glad I have a clear favorite now.

 

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Js1

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25 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Good.  Need to flip a couple of seats to make Manchin and Sinema moot.

This, though Florida is probably in the second tier for 2022. 

First tier flippable races - NC, WI, PA
Second tier flippable races - FL, OH
Third tier flippable races - IA (if Grassley does not run)

23 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

Good luck to her, and I'd love to be completely wrong on this, but Florida is going to be a hard damn lift. It's now a red state unless and until proven otherwise.

It's a 50/50 state.  Everyone calls Nevada a purple state when they have very similar results - close ass races.  If Nevada is purple tilt blue, Florida is also purple, but tilt red. 

2010 - R wins governor race by 1.2, Rubio wins in a three way race where the D/I vote was +1 over Rubio's vote share (49.9-48.9)

2014 - R (incumbent) wins governor race by 1

2018 - R wins Senate race by 0.12, R wins governor race by 0.4

 

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Jive Turkey

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Bill Nelson (D) defeated Connie Mack (R) in 2012, 55.2% to 42.2%.  that's the last time a Florida Dem won a Senate race in Florida.

Marco Rubio (R) defeated Patrick Murphy (D) in 2016, 52% to 44.3%

Rick Scott (R) defeated Bill Nelson (D) in 2018, 50.05% to 49.93%.

this is gonna be tight.

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Js1

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Yeah, I think it'll be a very close race.  That's just how it's been outside of presidential years.  2010/2018 were literally coin flips (if you combine the D/I vote in 2010 against Rubio) and the governor races in 10/14/18 were tight as hell, and 2 of those were heavy Republican midterm environments. 

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Biff Tannen

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48 minutes ago, Js1 said:

This, though Florida is probably in the second tier for 2022. 

First tier flippable races - NC, WI, PA
Second tier flippable races - FL, OH
Third tier flippable races - IA (if Grassley does not run)

It's a 50/50 state.  Everyone calls Nevada a purple state when they have very similar results - close ass races.  If Nevada is purple tilt blue, Florida is also purple, but tilt red. 

2010 - R wins governor race by 1.2, Rubio wins in a three way race where the D/I vote was +1 over Rubio's vote share (49.9-48.9)

2014 - R (incumbent) wins governor race by 1

2018 - R wins Senate race by 0.12, R wins governor race by 0.4

 

Florida Rs also put up shadow candidates to siphon votes from Dems.  It's fucking cheating.

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2 hours ago, Jive Turkey said:

Bill Nelson (D) defeated Connie Mack (R) in 2012, 55.2% to 42.2%.  that's the last time a Florida Dem won a Senate race in Florida.

Marco Rubio (R) defeated Patrick Murphy (D) in 2016, 52% to 44.3%

Rick Scott (R) defeated Bill Nelson (D) in 2018, 50.05% to 49.93%.

this is gonna be tight.

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6 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Val doesn't have a chance in hell because socialism and shit.

I don't think she runs unless she's seeing some favorable numbers for her, and unfavorable for Marco.

Remember, this week the Republicans in Florida have taken on the cruise ship industry.  That's a lot of voters and companies that will be fucked over by DeSantis, and Lil Marco is in full support of it.

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Fudge Nuggets

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12 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I don't think she runs unless she's seeing some favorable numbers for her, and unfavorable for Marco.

Remember, this week the Republicans in Florida have taken on the cruise ship industry.  That's a lot of voters and companies that will be fucked over by DeSantis, and Lil Marco is in full support of it.

That will mean fuck all two weeks from now much less 18 months from now.

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1 minute ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

That will mean fuck all two weeks from now much less 18 months from now.

If the cruise ships bail, that's going to be a lot of really pissed off employees, not to mention all of the olds that live in Florida and like to ride those cruise ships. 

She's pretty damned sharp.  Like I said, she doesn't run if she's not seeing some favorable numbers.

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Js1

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Just now, Fudge Nuggets said:

I hope she wins, but won’t hold my breath. What do you think the over / under on donations surly posters send to her campaign in a futile cause will be?

Can’t be worse than Harrison or McGrath or Hegar. That was wasted money on a futile cause 

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6 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Bitch please.  They won't be confused at all and we both know why.

I normally would agree, but I seriously doubt she runs without some numbers to back it up.

Most of us don't get to see a lot of the poll numbers that drive these kinds of decisions.

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berlinerbaer

berlinerbaer 670

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3 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I hope she wins, but won’t hold my breath. What do you think the over / under on donations surly posters send to her campaign in a futile cause will be?

This race will be within 5 points just like they always are in FL. Donations won't be futile.

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Gengs1

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Val will lose by 3-5 pints, dems don’t have a clear message and Rs will run circles around them.

Dade, Broward and Miami Dade will be voter suppressed like there is no tomorrow, plus Trump will lead the crazy parades and Rs will show up to vote.

You can put Florida is the Solid Red, helol they voted for a guy who stole from Medicare and support at Sex Trafficker…

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Walden Ponderer

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2 hours ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Republicans aren't going to vote for a black woman, fucking please.  She's gonna get trucked. 

Whether Republicans would vote for her or not is not the question. The question is whether they will be motivated to come out and vote for Rubio. That is a much less certain proposition. I'm not betting on her to win, but I'm not so sure I would bet against her, either, at least not without more data.

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2 hours ago, Walden Ponderer said:

Whether Republicans would vote for her or not is not the question. The question is whether they will be motivated to come out and vote for Rubio. That is a much less certain proposition. I'm not betting on her to win, but I'm not so sure I would bet against her, either, at least not without more data.

Not to mention that group in the middle that, over the past 20 years, has swung Florida elections back and forth.

Trump is not infallible, even in Florida.  In two years, he cost the Republicans the House, the Senate, and the White House.  The fact that the Rs are pushing through so many ridiculous bills against voting across the country after the past two years of losing is the proverbial Bat Signal that they realize they are in danger of being the minority party for years to come.

It's extremely telling how, rather than trying to increase the amount of people voting Republican, they've decided to go all in on trying to make it harder for others to vote.  They've completely given up on the "big tent" approach, because they've realized/acknowledged that their policies turn a shitload of people off.

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Js1

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I partially agree Val sees something to run, because her seat is safe (D+12) and it's a VRA district (majority-minority) so she's not in danger of getting drawn out. There's easier seats to redraw in Florida (FL-7, FL-9, FL-13, FL-26, FL-27) without having the DOJ/Marc Elias all over you for screwing around with VRA districts.  FL GOP is less focused on her seat and more on shoring up to the 2 Hispanic majority seats they snatched in 2020 (FL-26 and 27). 

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45499

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On 6/10/2021 at 11:18 AM, atomheartbevo said:

 They've completely given up on the "big tent" approach, because they've realized/acknowledged that their policies turn a shitload of people off.

Point of order: they don’t really have policies as much as they do talking points that they have no intention of following through on because their goal is to stay in power by scaring the rubes into voting for them. 

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