2022 Senate Elections

[tx 3 putt 78,759]

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

On 11/1/2022 at 3:42 PM, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

They discuss in there why they were outside the 80% confidence interval for house races.  The main thing for me though is that MOE is basically the same as actual margin of won these days.  Polling is just getting harder to be useful.  This race is going to be 51% +/- 3%?  Well, that’s super insightful. 

Hey guys! My science brain says this will be something between a blowout one way and a blowout the other. 

[Js1 87,289]

Further evidence of “we don’t know what we’re doing or what will happen” so we are supposed to listen to them?

Edited November 3, 2022 by Js1

[TheStoicPaisano 9,953]

I should try Gold Jacket/Green Jacket mode at my job. Not responsible for outcomes unless they can be spun positively.

Edited November 3, 2022 by TheStoicPaisano

[Biff Tannen 46,203]

31 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Further evidence of “we don’t know what we’re doing or what will happen” so we are supposed to listen to them?

Exactly.  I stopped after 2016.  It's dumb.  

[TheStoicPaisano 9,953]

Not falling for Franken’s banana in the tailpipe. I assume Grassley & His Pidgin roll. Now I want cookies.

 

[Gengs1 2,583]

18 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

The olds don’t care, they will vote for the guy who is raping their grandkids in front of them as long as fox tells them it’s not happening 

Edited November 4, 2022 by Gengs1

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,743]

I'm at a loss for words that Walker, Laxalt, Oz and Masters could all win. Even Bolduc is looking better in the polls. I guess we're approaching a let-it-burn event in american history. 

Then we get Trump announcing a few weeks later in an attempt to shut out DeSantis. the simulation continues to trend to crazy.

Edited November 4, 2022 by Nice Guy Eddie

[Gengs1 2,583]

8 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I'm at a loss for words that Walker, Laxalt, Oz and Masters could all win. Even Bolduc is looking better in the polls. I guess we're approaching a let-it-burn event in american history. 

Then we get Trump announcing a few weeks later in an attempt to shut out DeSantis. the simulation continues to trend to crazy.

Yea looking more like they will win, dems really fucked up by letting John debate. The Dems aren’t showing up to vote and Rs will come out in droves next week.

The dems getting slaughtered on Gov races as well 

Edited November 4, 2022 by Gengs1

[Js1 87,289]

Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I'm at a loss for words that Walker, Laxalt, Oz and Masters could all win. Even Bolduc is looking better in the polls. I guess we're approaching a let-it-burn event in american history. 

Cool it on Bolduc. There’s not been a non right wing aligned poll that has him surging. UMass was pretty god damn accurate in NH in 16/20 and has Hassan up 10. 

They had Biden by 10 and he won by 7. They had Trump and Clinton tied in 2016 (she won by 0.4) and Hassan up 1 (she won by 0.14) in their final polls.  They had Shaheen up 19 in 2020 (she won by 16)

[Js1 87,289]

1 minute ago, Gengs1 said:

Yea looking more like they will win, dems really fucked up by letting John debate. The Dems aren’t showing up to vote and Rs will come out in droves next week.

 

None of what you just said is true. Why are you posting false data? Dems have about a 500k vote lead on the GOP in PA and are returning their ballots at a higher rate.  They have almost 3/4 of a million votes already in.  Marist just released a new poll showing Fetterman up 51-45. The “Oz surge” is also purely from right wing polls. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,743]

26 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

Yea looking more like they will win, dems really fucked up by letting John debate. The Dems aren’t showing up to vote and Rs will come out in droves next week.

The dems getting slaughtered on Gov races as well 

Rs coming out in droves remains to be seen. Voter enthusiasm or apathy usually cut both ways to some extent.  Beto had all of the enthusiasm in '18 but that enthusiasm had the reverse impact of convincing Cruz voters that they had to stay home (edit: get out to the polls.) I think apathy can spread in the same manner.

But we'll see. Maybe Rs set records while Dems stay home. Who knows.

Edited November 4, 2022 by Nice Guy Eddie

[Js1 87,289]

13 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

 

The dems getting slaughtered on Gov races as well 

No they really aren't.   Again, what the fuck is your deal posting disinformation? 

Dems are poised to pick up MA, MD and PA with ease.  All of those are going to be 10+ point wins, and possibly 20+ for MA/MD. 

Michigan, MN, NM, CO, NY, CT, RI and Maine are not competitive for the GOP and all of those are going to be 8+ point wins.   Laura Kelly looks extremely strong in Kansas as an incumbent and is not favored to lose. 

NV, AZ  and WI are toss-ups (gasp, who would expect that from those states!) That's 2 for the Dems and 1 for the GOP. Oregon has a third party spoiler which is complicating that race, which makes it unique. 

Texas and Florida (red states!), GA (Kemp is a strong incumbent because he didn't suck off Trump's election denial claims), NH and VT (extremely popular Republican governors) are R holds and Dems are not seriously contesting NH/VT at all, considering they are favored in the Senate races there. 

Oklahoma and South Dakota are big sleepers for the Dems. 

[Js1 87,289]

37 minutes ago, Js1 said:

None of what you just said is true. Why are you posting false data? Dems have about a 500k vote lead on the GOP in PA and are returning their ballots at a higher rate.  They have almost 3/4 of a million votes already in.  Marist just released a new poll showing Fetterman up 51-45. The “Oz surge” is also purely from right wing polls. 

To follow up on my own post - 

60% of the polling released in October for PA was right-wing nonsense (Trafalgar, Insider Advantage, Susquehanna, Coefficient, etc.) that had Oz at 48%.

The non-politically aligned polling (Monmouth, Marist, NYT, Fox) had Fetterman up 4-6

 

Someone is wrong.  Someone is right.  But why should I trust Trafalgar (makes up numbers bc of "shy Trump voters"), Sean Hannity's polling outfit, and other nakedly partisan right-wing polls?  They don't even trust polls, yet they're flooding the zone with as many as possible to muddle the picture and give the narrative they're winning so they can claim "FRAUD" when they don't. 

Polling is expensive and difficult, so the fact that these right-wing orgs can pump out multiple polls, per week, all over the country, reeks.  They are being funded by dark money GOP donors to craft a narrative, if they are even polling scientifically at all. 

Edited November 4, 2022 by Js1

[hobbes2702 13,509]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

None of what you just said is true. Why are you posting false data? Dems have about a 500k vote lead on the GOP in PA and are returning their ballots at a higher rate.  They have almost 3/4 of a million votes already in.  Marist just released a new poll showing Fetterman up 51-45. The “Oz surge” is also purely from right wing polls. 

Where do you find the vote lead and return rates?

[Js1 87,289]

1 minute ago, hobbes2702 said:

Where do you find the vote lead and return rates?

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022

[hobbes2702 13,509]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022

Explain that to me like you would a moron. 
Maybe it’s hard to read since I’m on my phone. 

[Js1 87,289]

I pay attention to the polls that ask about “already voted”

The Marist poll has already voted in PA as 78-20 Fetterman which the data backs up (71.5 D to 24.7 R) with substantial R crossover for Fetterman 

[Js1 87,289]

2 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

Explain that to me like you would a moron. 
Maybe it’s hard to read since I’m on my phone. 

They track EV based on models and, in states that have it, party registration data. Including gender and race. It’s a model but it’s a pretty accurate model - it’s not a “Candidate X is getting Y amount of the vote” but at what rate the parties are turning people out so far 

Their modeling of the black vote in GA in the 2021 runoffs told the story more than any polling did. 

Edited November 4, 2022 by Js1

[Guest]

Want to know how bad Dems are on messaging? I follow politics. I follow the markets. It was literally yesterday when I found out that the latest GDP numbers were posted on October 27 and came in solid.

Three months ago there was so much argument and mocking if anyone dared to say we aren't in a recession despite the two quarters of negative GDP. Then this figure hits and it is *crickets* right before a mid-term where you're getting hammered on the economy. 2.6% growth with unemployment at 3.7%. And not a word.

 

 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

13 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Want to know how bad Dems are on messaging? I follow politics. I follow the markets. It was literally yesterday when I found out that the latest GDP numbers were posted on October 27 and came in solid.

Three months ago there was so much argument and mocking if anyone dared to say we aren't in a recession despite the two quarters of negative GDP. Then this figure hits and it is *crickets* right before a mid-term where you're getting hammered on the economy. 2.6% growth with unemployment at 3.7%. And not a word.

 

 

That’s the frustrating thing. The combination of their base being old and old people being the best voters, Fox News, their voters being nearly entirely driven by rage, hate, and anger which is easy to manufacture, and they’re just so much better at the politics game.

It’s a lot harder than it should be to beat the GOP. The GOP doesn’t do anything for you unless your income is in the top 10% but they keep on winning. It seems like they control the narrative so easy and when they’re in power, people make excuses for them, but when the dems are in power they are so quick to get blamed for things.

[Beantown Express 2.0 6,598]

10 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

That’s the frustrating thing. The combination of their base being old and old people being the best voters, Fox News, their voters being nearly entirely driven by rage, hate, and anger which is easy to manufacture, and they’re just so much better at the politics game.

It’s a lot harder than it should be to beat the GOP. The GOP doesn’t do anything for you unless your income is in the top 10% but they keep on winning. It seems like they control the narrative so easy and when they’re in power, people make excuses for them, but when the dems are in power they are so quick to get blamed for things.

"Don't care, INFLATION!!!!" is all the right wing would scream no matter how good the other economic numbers are and the people would nod along with the right wing.   You really can't win an argument or persuade ignorant people with facts and the truth.  You have people running around screaming there is a horrible crime wave when the stats don't really show that and about 99% of the people that vote Republican are probably not affected by much of the crime happening (in urban areas) since they live in the burbs or the out in the country yet they are frightened by the thought of being shot to death by a gang member.  

[Voldemort86 2,259]

5 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

"Don't care, INFLATION!!!!" is all the right wing would scream no matter how good the other economic numbers are and the people would nod along with the right wing.   You really can't win an argument or persuade ignorant people with facts and the truth.  You have people running around screaming there is a horrible crime wave when the stats don't really show that and about 99% of the people that vote Republican are probably not affected by much of the crime happening (in urban areas) since they live in the burbs or the out in the country yet they are frightened by the thought of being shot to death by a gang member.  

1 month before the 2020 election, Trump told those who live in the suburbs that a horde of brown / black people will come around the corner wherever they live and invade their suburbs.  It didn’t win him the election, but they altered the message a bit to vaguely say the word CRIME and it’s enough to scare voters into thinking they’re in danger if they don’t vote red.

[StassneyHorn 6,790]

GDP was definitely discussed in the Biden thread as well as the Inflation is stealing my kids lunch money and raping my face thread in 6th Street Journal. It doesn’t matter. All the guys that pretend to be well off suddenly all live paycheck to paycheck and eat cans of beans over lit trash cans at night.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

22 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Hey guys! My science brain says this will be something between a blowout one way and a blowout the other. 

Oh, you thought an 8 senator range was useless? Well see how you like 10!

 

 

 

[StassneyHorn 6,790]

Blake Masters campaign has bombarded a stretch of road I go down every day with signs asking you “Are you better off now than you were in 2020?” And I just have a holy shit, yes I’m way fucking better now reaction

[Satchel 6,983]

This might surprise a lot of Democratic Catholics:

https://twitter.com/Church_Militant/status/1588159294368874497?s=20&t=kEfaLbNpIZcOuu5Yc_93Qg

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

12 minutes ago, Satchel said:

This might surprise a lot of Democratic Catholics:

https://twitter.com/Church_Militant/status/1588159294368874497?s=20&t=kEfaLbNpIZcOuu5Yc_93Qg

Saw something recently from a Catholic authority (bishop or some such) admonishing folks for doing this stuff.  AZ I think there was a flyer going around calling itself the Catholic Digest and basically just being a right wing circular.  I found it interesting.  Nothing quite like “God says do this” to turn off your decision making process. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

46 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Blake Masters campaign has bombarded a stretch of road I go down every day with signs asking you “Are you better off now than you were in 2020?” And I just have a holy shit, yes I’m way fucking better now reaction

I basically don’t give a fuck. I realize that sort of an elitist perspective that not everybody has the luxury to consider. But if I was doing worse or doing better than I was 2020 would not influence my vote one iota when my decisions are between people that are trying to permanently poison or political system and those that aren’t. 

[Guest]

44 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Blake Masters campaign has bombarded a stretch of road I go down every day with signs asking you “Are you better off now than you were in 2020?” And I just have a holy shit, yes I’m way fucking better now reaction

Lol. I keep monthly track of my net worth. It's up nearly 30% since Biden was inaugurated. My business has finally rebounded back to what it was as Covid has declined. We aren't governed by middle of the night tweets. Infrastructure passed. Out of Afghanistan. CHIPs Act. A president that actually wants to do something about mass shootings. Unemployment is at 3.7%.

But please, keep telling me how awful everything is Republicans.

[Js1 87,289]

25 minutes ago, Satchel said:

This might surprise a lot of Democratic Catholics:

https://twitter.com/Church_Militant/status/1588159294368874497?s=20&t=kEfaLbNpIZcOuu5Yc_93Qg

Truly truly hate the gatekeepers of faith

[Biff Tannen 46,203]

3 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

GDP was definitely discussed in the Biden thread as well as the Inflation is stealing my kids lunch money and raping my face thread in 6th Street Journal. It doesn’t matter. All the guys that pretend to be well off suddenly all live paycheck to paycheck and eat cans of beans over lit trash cans at night.

Dammit, someone find the mspaint eating leaves out of maga hat pic.  @THUJONE

[tx 3 putt 78,759]

7 hours ago, Gengs1 said:

The olds don’t care, they will vote for the guy who is raping their grandkids in front of them as long as fox tells them it’s not happening 

 

FURTHER proof, boomers are the worst generation. 

they reaped all the benefits of unions, then yelled like hell to get rid of them

they reaped the benefits of social security, then yelled to 'pull it up by the roots !' 

[StassneyHorn 6,790]

Went to Catholic school my whole life and it’s a riot when I’ll connect with friends and the parents are drinking and asking “Have you heard about all this social justice being taught nowadays?”

Why yes I do. I had a semester my freshman, sophomore, and Senior year about it. You paid for it.

[The Original Greaser Bob 2,901]

8 hours ago, Js1 said:

None of what you just said is true. Why are you posting false data? Dems have about a 500k vote lead on the GOP in PA and are returning their ballots at a higher rate.  They have almost 3/4 of a million votes already in.  Marist just released a new poll showing Fetterman up 51-45. The “Oz surge” is also purely from right wing polls. 

Hmm.  I had decided not to vote at all, given the inevitability of GOP takeover.  Maybe if I have some time on the 8th I'll rethink it. 

[Bullneck 19,573]

9 hours ago, Gengs1 said:

Yea looking more like they will win, dems really fucked up by letting John debate. The Dems aren’t showing up to vote and Rs will come out in droves next week.

The dems getting slaughtered on Gov races as well 

[Bama Chick 28,596]

My favorite flavor of CR poster are the ones who don’t pay attention to what actual Democrats are actually saying but do pay attention to how the horse race clickbait online media frame and Republicans what “Democrats are saying”.

And then get mad online and blame Democrats for their messaging.

[Longhorn_Fan68 34,108]

44 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

My favorite flavor of CR poster are the ones who don’t pay attention to what actual Democrats are actually saying but do pay attention to how the horse race clickbait online media frame and Republicans what “Democrats are saying”.

And then get mad online and blame Democrats for their messaging.

information-gathering by headline.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

1 hour ago, Bama Chick said:

My favorite flavor of CR poster are the ones who don’t pay attention to what actual Democrats are actually saying but do pay attention to how the horse race clickbait online media frame and Republicans what “Democrats are saying”.

And then get mad online and blame Democrats for their messaging.

For real tho, of the many topics you lecture us on, this is one where you should be the last person talking. 
 

 

[StassneyHorn 6,790]

Not really

[Bama Chick 28,596]

For real tho, of the many topics you lecture us on, this is one where you should be the last person talking. 
 
 

The majority of the posters in the CR are recovering republicans and while I appreciate that y’all have seen the light, a lot of y’all repeatedly revert back to your former Republican mindset and views on Democrats.

As someone who has proudly never cast a vote for a republican, it is easy for me to observe when that happens.

Despite the fact that many of you have been conditioned to see the media as “liberal”, it isn’t. It’s mission is to drive engagement and outrage.

And the decades of Republicans screaming about the liberal bias has made the media decision makers overly sensitive and thus they over correct to kowtow to the right to appear fair.

That’s why we’re inundated with repetitive deep dives on what idiots in Indiana diners think and why every current event is framed “Why XYZ is bad for The Democrats and Joe Biden”. It’s why it took years for the media to quit calling Trump’s lies what they are instead of “distortions” and “untruths” and “exaggerations”.

Imagine if a man had broken into Mitch McConnel’s home and beat Elaine Chao with a hammer and that man had scores of statements worshiping Obama and admitted to police he did it to send a message to Republicans.

That shit would still be the top story.

So, yeah, many of the posters here are misdirecting their anger.

It’s always somehow Democrats fault that the media and voters are more distracted by the outrageous shiny things rather than the boring truth.

I could list chapter and verse of hand wringing and concern trolling posts on this board over manufactured culture issues that get blamed on Democrats (CRT, defund the police, etc.) messaging instead of blaming the Republican false framing and the media who amplifies that false framing in a pathetic attempt to appear unbiased.

[tx 3 putt 78,759]

 

[CTC2 2,868]

It was a nice run.

[henrygandorf 29,229]

15 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Want to know how bad Dems are on messaging? I follow politics. I follow the markets. It was literally yesterday when I found out that the latest GDP numbers were posted on October 27 and came in solid.

Three months ago there was so much argument and mocking if anyone dared to say we aren't in a recession despite the two quarters of negative GDP. Then this figure hits and it is *crickets* right before a mid-term where you're getting hammered on the economy. 2.6% growth with unemployment at 3.7%. And not a word.

 

 

now do crime. 

[UTGrad98 2,343]

7 hours ago, CTC2 said:

It was a nice run.

He is not wrong. After democracy is gone they won't even need to steal elections moving forward. Doing that gives people in general too much credit. False narratives will continue to work. It will be their fail safe though. But we are not smart enough to get to that point.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

Dems need Clark firewall to be between 40-45k to have a chance to win I’m guessing. Mail can come in for up to 7 more days. Nevada could come down to 1 point or less.

[Js1 87,289]

Early in person is over, so Dems will just paid their lead with mail the next few days. If Dems add 4k per day Saturday, Sunday and Monday (what they’ve been doing per day), that’s ~41k. They only lost the in person vote yesterday by like 1k - Dems turned out. 

The firewall was 48k in 2018 when Rosen won by 5%. If ED is less red than normal (Dems usually hold their own in Clark on Election Day), CCM probably has a 1-3% advantage right now 

[Exposition 93]

Apologies if this has been answered already upthread... Does Nevada definitively know the D vs. R breakdown of the mail-in ballots, or they are using historical statistics to project the %split? 

[Js1 87,289]

7 minutes ago, Exposition said:

Apologies if this has been answered already upthread... Does Nevada definitively know the D vs. R breakdown of the mail-in ballots, or they are using historical statistics to project the %split? 

They definitely know. Jon Ralston can pretty much nail who will win based on the early vote totals because Clark/Washoe is the vast majority of the vote 

The big question is the unaffiliated votes and who it favors, but also depends on age. Like young unaffiliated is likely going to vote Dem. But what about middle age and older unaffiliated?  

Edited November 5, 2022 by Js1

[Pancho 46,372]