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2022 Senate Elections

Ghost of LL

By Ghost of LL
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softlynow

softlynow 1783

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9 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Apparently Budd has Trump’s endorsement 

I didn't know anything about him, but I'm completely unsurprised by the fact that he voted against certifying the 2020 election results, and owns a gun store. I found it humorous that he met his wife on a mission in the Soviet Union in 1991. 

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Zonahorn
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That “majority” has been remembered as something that never actually existed. Let's clear that all up, shall we? Starting January 2009, at the beginning of the 111th Congress, in the month that Bara

Pescado_Rojo
Pescado_Rojo

I'd pay good money to watch Big John Fetterman beat Steve Bannon to death with Roger Stone. 

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tx 3 putt 76401

Posted
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9 minutes ago, softlynow said:

I didn't know anything about him, but I'm completely unsurprised by the fact that he voted against certifying the 2020 election results, and owns a gun store. I found it humorous that he met his wife on a mission in the Soviet Union in 1991. 

DrOa6tQtmcdFXD37iwC6ER_WU--6b31fEG0XiK2Y

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Js1

Js1 85112

Posted
Posted
Just now, Walden Ponderer said:

I'd say the odds are pretty good, yes. Pending GOTV efforts, of course, because overcoming voter suppression is the entire name of the game in that race.

No COVID + Fair Fight getting out the vote + Abrams/Warnock ticket? 

Yeah, very good odds for him.  If anyone is going to overcome voter suppression, it is Queen Stacey. 

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Walden Ponderer

Walden Ponderer 12639

Posted
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I want to see NC get "ungerrymandered". The Triangle plus Asheville outnumbers everybody else; it ought to be reflected in the leg. Managing to elect a non-right wing nutso for Senate in 2022 would be a good start. Roy Cooper is a good guy, but one good guy -- even if he's the governor -- can't hold back the tide of crazy without some help.

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Js1

Js1 85112

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2 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Could've sworn Herschel was living in Texas these days. 

He is.  He's been living in Texas for a long time.  He's uniquely suited against carpetbagger claims, since he is from Georgia and played at Jawja.

But he's also been out of the state for decades.  Have to thread the needle with attacking him for that, while also that it's his home state and he played ball at Jawja. 

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Js1

Js1 85112

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47 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

Whomever run against Kelly will lose. If Republicans put up Gosar I will laugh maniacally 

It's funny - I saw a tweet showing that Kelly and Sinema have almost the exact same approval rating right now.  Kelly is +16 (51-35) and Sinema is +14 (50-36).  How they get there and how they look for re-election is very different.

Kelly is +81 with Dems, -47 with GOP and +13 with independents.  More likely to be vulnerable-ish to a GOP challenger.

Sinema is +9 with Dems, +22 with GOP and +6 with independents.  More likely to be vulnerable-ish to a Dem primary.  Not sure what Republicans wants to run against her. 

 

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

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5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It's funny - I saw a tweet showing that Kelly and Sinema have almost the exact same approval rating right now.  Kelly is +16 (51-35) and Sinema is +14 (50-36).  How they get there and how they look for re-election is very different.

Kelly is +81 with Dems, -47 with GOP and +13 with independents.  More likely to be vulnerable-ish to a GOP challenger.

Sinema is +9 with Dems, +22 with GOP and +6 with independents.  More likely to be vulnerable-ish to a Dem primary.  Not sure what Republicans wants to run against her. 

 

Kelly got more votes than Joe Biden, he'll be just fine against any Republican challenger.

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Js1

Js1 85112

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Zonahorn said:

Kelly got more votes than Joe Biden, he'll be just fine against any Republican challenger.

Oh I agree he’ll be fine. Just that he’s a more traditional Dem to run against (popular with Dems, not so with GOP) and Sinema is the opposite (so-so with Dems, but popular with GOP).

How and who you run against them is vastly different.  Kelly looks more attractive for the GOP as someone to run against in Biden’s first midterm than a Dem senator in a presidential year who is +22 with your own party. 

Arizona is weird, man. An atheist bisexual woman is +22 with Republicans but a male astronaut is -47 and in the end, their approvals are within 2 points of each other. 

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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19331

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Oh I agree he’ll be fine. Just that he’s a more traditional Dem to run against (popular with Dems, not so with GOP) and Sinema is the opposite (so-so with Dems, but popular with GOP).

How and who you run against them is vastly different.  Kelly looks more attractive for the GOP as someone to run against in Biden’s first midterm than a Dem senator in a presidential year who is +22 with your own party. 

Arizona is weird, man. An atheist bisexual woman is +22 with Republicans but a male astronaut is -47 and in the end, their approvals are within 2 points of each other. 

Arizona is going to be fascinating to watch between now and '24. Demographics are changing way faster than Texas with the influx of Californians and the smaller starting population size. I think Sinema's centerist persona worked for her in 2018 when Az was reddish-purple, but I think she could get smoked in a D primary by someone like Galligo in '24 as the state moves from a swing state to solid blue. 

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Js1

Js1 85112

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Arizona is going to be fascinating to watch between now and '24. Demographics are changing way faster than Texas with the influx of Californians and the smaller starting population size. I think Sinema's centerist persona worked for her in 2018 when Az was reddish-purple, but I think she could get smoked in a D primary by someone like Galligo in '24 as the state moves from a swing state to solid blue. 

I agree.  She's very susceptible to a primary challenge, but also has 3 years to recover with Democrats.  But then would someone like Gallego be able to win Arizona as an unabashed progressive candidate, but with military credentials and being Hispanic? I believe non-affiliated voters can vote in the Dem primary, so would they save her?  They are second in the state in terms of registration (34.9R - 32D - 32.2 indie)

It's a fascinating state to watch for the next 2 elections. More so than Georgia. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
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5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I agree.  She's very susceptible to a primary challenge, but also has 3 years to recover with Democrats.  But then would someone like Gallego be able to win Arizona as an unabashed progressive candidate, but with military credentials and being Hispanic? I believe non-affiliated voters can vote in the Dem primary, so would they save her?  They are second in the state in terms of registration (34.9R - 32D - 32.2 indie)

It's a fascinating state to watch for the next 2 elections. More so than Georgia. 

Is Georgia going to get redder because of the bullshit election laws?  That crap about no feeding people in line pissed me off.

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Js1

Js1 85112

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Posted
Just now, Voldemort86 said:

Is Georgia going to get redder because of the bullshit election laws?  That crap about no feeding people in line pissed me off.

Trust in Stacey.  She will turn them out.

Atlanta is also growing still.  Fourth fastest growing metro area the last decade.  Phoenix was third.  

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Js1

Js1 85112

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Meghan McCain wouldn't make it out of a GOP primary in Arizona.  The McCain name is *DEAD* to Trumplicans in Arizona - anyone who actually still likes McCain has switched to indie or Dem at this point. 

I'm not even sure Cindy McCain would endorse Meghan for the GOP nominee. 

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Js1

Js1 85112

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

LFG

Cool.  He will lose to Rand Paul 65-35.  Don't waste your money in Kentucky in 2022. 

Focus on the immediate goals - Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina.  

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9905

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Js1 said:

Cool.  He will lose to Rand Paul 65-35.  Don't waste your money in Kentucky in 2022. 

Focus on the immediate goals - Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina.  

Restating this.  
 

DO NOT WASTE YOUR MONEY ON KENTUCKY.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89449

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https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/01/politics/jd-vance-ohio-senate-race/index.html

Quote

The Republican primary for Ohio's open Senate seat is about to get even more crowded with the expected entry Thursday of best-selling author J.D. Vance -- setting up a messy fight for the GOP nomination in a state that voted for Donald Trump twice.

Vance joins a field that already includes Josh Mandel, the former state treasurer; Jane Timken, the former chair of the Ohio Republican party; and businessmen Bernie Moreno and Mike Gibbons. The primary race to succeed retiring Sen. Rob Portman, a relatively moderate Republican, could turn on who appears to be the most authentically pro-Trump candidate.

Quote

"There has never been a Republican primary for statewide office in Ohio this wide open and this chaotic," said one Republican strategist familiar with Ohio. "Each one of these candidates has their own claim to the Republican base."

And even before Vance announces, the knives are out for the 36-year-old venture capitalist. Earlier this week, Ohio Republicans received anonymous text messages blasting Vance as a "Never Trumper." The texts are similar to a flurry of messages sent to voters in April,denouncing Vance shortly after he announced he was exploring a Senate run.

Quote

Vance will enter the Senate race as something of a wild card. Known primarily for his best-selling memoir Hillbilly Elegy, the Yale Law School graduate and venture capitalist has emerged as an authoritative voice on the White-working class that makes up the base of Trump's support in the GOP.

But Vance's political fate could come down to how he talks about his transformation on Trump, who he publicly opposed in 2016 before reversing his position in 2020. 

Quote

During the 2016 campaign, Vance wrote in USA Today, "Trump's actual policy proposals, such as they are, range from immoral to absurd." The same year, as it became clear Trump would become the GOP presidential nominee, Vance wrote in The Atlantic that "Trump is cultural heroin," who "makes some feel better for a bit."

"He cannot fix what ails them, and one day they'll realize it," added Vance.

He's connected to Peter Thiel, so watch him carefully.

It's funny - I've surveyed some of my more rural relatives, and some of them loathed the movie for the stereotypes, and some loved it because it was "honest".

 

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Js1

Js1 85112

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1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/01/politics/jd-vance-ohio-senate-race/index.html

He's connected to Peter Thiel, so watch him carefully.

It's funny - I've surveyed some of my more rural relatives, and some of them loathed the movie for the stereotypes, and some loved it because it was "honest".

 

JD Vance grew up in Ohio, went to Harvard, wrote a book calling Appalachian people hillbillies and that they’re lazy with no work ethic and didn’t vote for Trump in 2016 but yeah…

 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

Cringe Reaction GIF

 

This will only make him more popular in Kentucky. Remember when Detrumpis said on Fox News that “we don’t need to monkey this up” when his opponent was a black guy in Gillum?  Well…..Detrumpis is governor of Florida right now.

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