Surly Official 2020 Election "Wanna make a bet?" Thread

[immamac 44445]

Only wagers and acceptance of the wagers or clarification of terms will be kept in this thread all other content will be deleted.

Surly will escrow up to 1k in individual bets, but if you want to bet beyond that there are escrow services available. 

There is no "house", I will not be taking an escrow fee. 

Bets also do not have to be money. Bets can range from time off, to username changes, to avatar changes, to being restricted to a certain board etc etc.

There are no rules on prop bets that will and won't be allowed, just need to be related to the election in some way shape or form to be in this thread.

[BradInATX 9208]

Where is that bitch @Caddox at?

Edited November 3, 2020 by immamac
This is acceptable, because lol

[BradInATX 9208]

But if anyone wants some light just for fun type action, I'll bet on Biden performing better in Texas than in Ohio. I've got enough money on the table on PredictIt where I'm not looking sling real cash around with you guys but I'll throw down $20 or something equivalent.

I will, however, take as much of Caddox's free money as he wants to give me, if he ever comes back to man up to the bet he challenged everyone to.

Edited November 3, 2020 by BradInATX

[Wulaw Horn 19600]

28 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

But if anyone wants some light just for fun type action, I'll bet on Biden performing better in Texas than in Ohio. I've got enough money on the table on PredictIt where I'm not looking sling real cash around with you guys but I'll throw down $20 or something equivalent.

I will, however, take as much of Caddox's free money as he wants to give me, if he ever comes back to man up to the bet he challenged everyone to.

Total share of vote?  Or closeness to victory?  I ask because I think Ohio will have less third party voters than texas so what happens if Biden gets say- 47.5 in Ohio, and 47.2 in Texas, but is closer to winning texas than Ohio?  

[GRHorn 105]

Anyone wanna do a parlay? I’ll take Texas-Ga-Florida Trump sweep.  They’re all 3 tossups. Let’s go 8-1. 

[BradInATX 9208]

53 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Total share of vote?  Or closeness to victory?  I ask because I think Ohio will have less third party voters than texas so what happens if Biden gets say- 47.5 in Ohio, and 47.2 in Texas, but is closer to winning texas than Ohio?  

Margin of victory is what I was thinking

[Wulaw Horn 19600]

9 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Margin of victory is what I was thinking

I will take your bet. Give me Ohio for $20. 

[BradInATX 9208]

Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

I will take your bet. Give me Ohio for $20. 

You're on. I think we can skip the escrow for $20 if you're good with it and just Venmo or whatever.

[VolenteHawk 495]

8 hours ago, GRHorn said:

Anyone wanna do a parlay? I’ll take Texas-Ga-Florida Trump sweep.  They’re all 3 tossups. Let’s go 8-1. 

Betonline currently has -170, -170, -500 for true odds of about +200...so I’m not sure you find a taker.

 

[GRHorn 105]

1 hour ago, VolenteHawk said:

Betonline currently has -170, -170, -500 for true odds of about +200...so I’m not sure you find a taker.

 

So, is the polling wrong or are a bunch of Trumpers on betonline? I’ve heard they dominate predictit. 

[VolenteHawk 495]

22 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

So, is the polling wrong or are a bunch of Trumpers on betonline? I’ve heard they dominate predictit. 

Predictit has limits so low it’s basically a crowdsource opinion piece. Betonline is (apparently) handling a lot of volume, so I’d say it’s a truer reflection of reality. If I had to guess, I’d say that the difference between polls and betting markets in closely contested states has to do with the likelihood of legal challenge that gets votes thrown out or otherwise not counted. #nocr

 

[Wulaw Horn 19600]

1 hour ago, GRHorn said:

So, is the polling wrong or are a bunch of Trumpers on betonline? I’ve heard they dominate predictit. 

Also, those aren’t really independently moving events. You shouldn’t be getting 8-1 more like 2-1. If Florida stays red Georgia is way more likely to stay red- if Georgia and Florida are fed NC is waaaaaaay more likely to stay red. Not totally independent events. 

[WBT 21043]

Not just nonindependent, highly correlated

[GRHorn 105]

3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Also, those aren’t really independently moving events. You shouldn’t be getting 8-1 more like 2-1. If Florida stays red Georgia is way more likely to stay red- if Georgia and Florida are fed NC is waaaaaaay more likely to stay red. Not totally independent events. 

It was worth a try. Disappointed no one wants to bet. I’ll take Texas straight up against anybody that wants it. $$, avatar choice, 3 month ban. Whatever 

[VolenteHawk 495]

1 hour ago, GRHorn said:

It was worth a try. Disappointed no one wants to bet. I’ll take Texas straight up against anybody that wants it. $$, avatar choice, 3 month ban. Whatever 

Your "worth a try" is my "blatantly trying to rip people off with terrible odds".  Texas is -450 and you're offering even.  That's stupid and it would take a stupid person to accept.  Like if I told you I'd take Biden Texas if you laid 10/1, you would be similarly stupid to accept that, regardless of confidence level, because you can do so much better literally anywhere else.

 

[Baboontyme 2891]

I don't trust the polls. I think Biden is an underdog. 1000:1. I would like to put $100 on him to get to 270. Any takers? 

[immamac 44445]

1 hour ago, Baboontyme said:

I don't trust the polls. I think Biden is an underdog. 1000:1. I would like to put $100 on him to get to 270. Any takers? 

 tonight or ever?

[GRHorn 105]

3 hours ago, VolenteHawk said:

Your "worth a try" is my "blatantly trying to rip people off with terrible odds".  Texas is -450 and you're offering even.  That's stupid and it would take a stupid person to accept.  Like if I told you I'd take Biden Texas if you laid 10/1, you would be similarly stupid to accept that, regardless of confidence level, because you can do so much better literally anywhere else.

 

why wouldn’t I try to get the best odds I could?
 

I’ve been told Texas is a toss up. RCP average is Trump +1.3. It’s fine nobody here wants to take Texas straight up.  Confidence seemed to be overflowing, but nobody can pull the trigger. 

[ztejas 44299]

19 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

why wouldn’t I try to get the best odds I could?
 

I’ve been told Texas is a toss up. RCP average is Trump +1.3. It’s fine nobody here wants to take Texas straight up.  Confidence seemed to be overflowing, but nobody can pull the trigger. 

I don't think +1.3 is a toss-up in a state that will have over 10 million ballots cast. And that's assuming the polling is accurate - which it probably isn't - just like it wasn't in 2016.

[Wulaw Horn 19600]

On 11/2/2020 at 9:57 PM, BradInATX said:

You're on. I think we can skip the escrow for $20 if you're good with it and just Venmo or whatever.

Buy $20 worth of ramen etc for the food bank locally, take a picture and post it on here. You can even caption that fuck Ohio if you want. 

[BradInATX 9208]

4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Buy $20 worth of ramen etc for the food bank locally, take a picture and post it on here. You can even caption that fuck Ohio if you want. 

???

You're losing right now, although this bet was a fart in the wind in general as neither state was close.

Edited November 4, 2020 by BradInATX

[Wulaw Horn 19600]

5 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

???

You're losing right now, although this bet was a fart in the wind in general as neither state was close.

Ohio is at 8 and texas is at 5+, right?  How did I not win?  Am I confused/an idiot?  Oh fuck- I am. I had that wrong. What you want with my 20?  Sorry man. 

[BradInATX 9208]

Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

Ohio is at 8 and texas is at 5+, right?  How did I not win?  Am I confused/an idiot?  Oh fuck- I am. I had that wrong. What you want with my 20?  Sorry man. 

Send it to the ACLU 

[Wulaw Horn 19600]

4 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Send it to the ACLU 

Fucker. Ok. Will send you a pm. 

[BradInATX 9208]

9 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Fucker. Ok. Will send you a pm. 

I figured you'd be cool with that as a Libertarian or whatever. I thought about making you send it to BLM or ANTIFA but I thought I'd keep it civil.

Edited November 4, 2020 by BradInATX

[Wulaw Horn 19600]

29 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I figured you'd be cool with that as a Libertarian or whatever. I thought about making you send it to BLM or ANTIFA but I thought I'd keep it civil.

I used to like the ACLU more when they supported all lower case l liberalism, but I’m down for whatever you want. Will do and capture picture. 

[achooloco 1087]

So ... getting paid out on betonline (didn’t want to clog up the main thread unless this one gets no traction) or bovada, what’s the preferred method?  I’d prefer not to run amok with the laws/irs and I’d be fine paying  my taxes on this election win but will they find out if I take crypto payout? If I take wire transfer payout? I’ve bet online for a couple years and while I’ve won pretty well, I always went degenerate and by the end of football season ended up at zero by super bowl so never had anything to cash out. Fuck it, couple hundred to be entertained for 6 months was worth it.

But now that I actually won, I’m stuck on how to get paid and not break laws. Or break laws and not get caught (not that I’m advocating for that, just honestly never been paid so not sure what regular online gamblers do). I don’t do crypto but betonline said do cash app and it does have a Bitcoin area that seems straightforward but I’m worried that either

A) I buy Bitcoin and get paid out immediately but somehow my money evaporates into the ether cause I’m not familiar with Bitcoin and I’m screwed with $0 or

B ) I get Bitcoin and come April 2021 irs fucks me cause I don’t have paperwork to show I bought and immediately sold out of crypto.