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Nate Silver is full of shit

Victor Lazlo

By Victor Lazlo
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aggie08

aggie08 21434

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

We should all put TTom on ignore. He is unwell and nothing good is going to come out of interacting with him.

This. And not in a funny or snide way at all. He needs to take a deep breath, and be left alone for the near future.

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hobbes2702

hobbes2702 12846

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, TtomTerrific said:


The ones flying Black Lives Matter flags and keeping ballot monitors from the building and covering the widows with newspapers and otherwise blocking whatever the fuck they are doing from view. You unbelievable criminal endorsing cunt?

You are now going right at the franchise. JUST AS WAS PREDICTED YOU WOULD WITH THIS “FLOOD THE SYSTEM MAIL IN, NO ACCOUNTABILITY bullshit. Actively strong arming those who shouldn’t be needed anyway to watch this, but everyone knows what you are up to.....you are going at the foundational tenet of our system of Government. This is why McConnell put 300 federal judges on the bench and three very important ones on the Supreme Court.

You assholes have openly supported the fire bombings, shooting of police, beating of innocent bystanders who didn’t have the right color and now want the police called on me for Something I guess

Fuck You

War

dog oops GIF
 

Ttom is big mad apparently 

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CowboyFred

CowboyFred 1151

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, TtomTerrific said:


The ones flying Black Lives Matter flags and keeping ballot monitors from the building and covering the widows with newspapers and otherwise blocking whatever the fuck they are doing from view. You unbelievable criminal endorsing cunt?

You are now going right at the franchise. JUST AS WAS PREDICTED YOU WOULD WITH THIS “FLOOD THE SYSTEM MAIL IN, NO ACCOUNTABILITY bullshit. Actively strong arming those who shouldn’t be needed anyway to watch this, but everyone knows what you are up to.....you are going at the foundational tenet of our system of Government. This is why McConnell put 300 federal judges on the bench and three very important ones on the Supreme Court.

You assholes have openly supported the fire bombings, shooting of police, beating of innocent bystanders who didn’t have the right color and now want the police called on me for Something I guess

Fuck You

War

so you guys can keep trying to steal shit and remove any semblance of a democracy in our government?

you're still an all talk pussy, fuck you bitch.

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TtomTerrific

TtomTerrific 200

Posted
Posted
Yeah, I mean.....I don't have any idea where I got the idea that this election is going to result in violence.   I dreamed it in my head, I guess.

Perhaps you’ve missed the boarded up businesses.

Of course. Right now the “right team” still hasn’t been told they’re going to lose.

Although there were those opportunists who were looking forward to a “free shit shopping spree” that the police would neither stop nor the media even cover , cuz institutional racism and orange guys and “Proud Boyz. And the “Ooooombaloomba”. That kinda sucked for them.

But, yeah. Generally Trump supporters don’t really fire bombs businesses Free of recourse. So. No need for the plywood on the buildings. Until this goes to court for the next month
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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104628

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Continental Op said:

I got a temp ban for telling someone to go fuck themselves on one of the protest threads when they said something I saw with my own two eyes on the news didn't happen.  Ttom definitely needs to be put in timeout. 

Doesn't matter.  There are millions of TToms out there.  A fair number will act on the goading of their god.  "Stochastic terrorism" -- a time-honored tactic, predictable in its results.

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Bat Guano

Bat Guano 359

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Dnaguy said:

Seltzer poll in Iowa wasn’t garbage.

Whatever she did, should be the standard.

 

Precisely this. Seltzer called it Trump by 7 in Iowa a day or two before the election; Iowa turned out to be Trump by 8. Which brings it back around to Nate Silver; discussing the Seltzer poll he said it was an outlier, acknowledged that Seltzer is considered the gold standard of IA polling, then said that even very good pollsters can be wrong sometimes. Good call, Nate. He's a bit too much in love with his own model, and doesn't exhibit enough garbage in/garbage out skepticism.

The bigger issue is something I've seen from my dips into the right-wing internet mediasphere. It's not prevalent, and I've never seen it talked about in the mainstream media, but every once in a while you'll see a reference to Trump supporters lying to pollsters. Of course this is said approvingly, but it's also infrequent, in passing, and very much on the down-low; they don't want everyone to catch on to it. I imagine if you go into the comment threads on some of these sites, you'd find more of it, but I certainly don't have the stomach or the time for that nonsense. I think it's a real thing, though; this is the second time in a row the pollsters - most of them, anyway, one exception noted above - missed, and this miss was even bigger than the first one. Coincidence? Random chance/noise? Possibly. But it seems unlikely.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Bat Guano said:

Trump supporters lying to pollsters. Of course this is said approvingly, but it's also infrequent, in passing, and very much on the down-low; they don't want everyone to catch on to it. I imagine if you go into the comment threads on some of these sites, you'd find more of it, but I certainly don't have the stomach or the time for that nonsense. I think it's a real thing, though; this is the second time in a row the pollsters - most of them, anyway, one exception noted above - missed, and this miss was even bigger than the first one. Coincidence? Random chance/noise? Possibly. But it seems unlikely.

It fits their agenda of anti-science, for sure. I believe it's happening. To what extent, who knows, but it's happening.

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4th&Five

4th&Five 41461

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, TtomTerrific said:


Perhaps you’ve missed the boarded up businesses.

Of course. Right now the “right team” still hasn’t been told they’re going to lose.

Although there were those opportunists who were looking forward to a “free shit shopping spree” that the police would neither stop nor the media even cover , cuz institutional racism and orange guys and “Proud Boyz. And the “Ooooombaloomba”. That kinda sucked for them.

But, yeah. Generally Trump supporters don’t really fire bombs businesses Free of recourse. So. No need for the plywood on the buildings. Until this goes to court for the next month

Nah, they just shoot up Wal-Mart's and mail out pipe bombs.  Totally victimless crimes like that.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89449

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Patricio Swayze said:

I bet this keyboard badass is a total pussy in real life.

These people pre-pandemic:  WE ARE TOUGH, DON'T FUCK WITH US OR THE USA, BECAUSE WE PUT THE "US" IN "USA"

When the pandemic kicked in:  "WE CAN'T EAT AT APPLEBEES OR GO TO SUPERCUTS, AND WE CAN ONLY BUY ONE 24-PACK OF TOILET PAPER A DAY, THIS IS OPPRESSION, HELP I'M BEING OPPRESSED!"

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MC Fresh Breath

MC Fresh Breath 4074

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

Man, don't do this. Seriously. Legitimately concerned that this dude is gonna snap and shoot up a post office or some shit.

 

Even if he's not going to do that, picking on people who are obviously suffering mentally should be something most of us just don't do, regardless of the politics.

It is pretty easy to ignore rather then provoke.

 

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ConferenceRoom

ConferenceRoom 6130

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

I remember TTom from way back on one of the TOSs. I think he had a Keith Olberman avatar, right? He was verbose and annoying, but I don't remember him being crazier than a shit house rat. This is not funny and is sad to watch. 

Likewise. Spent a lot of time on baseball threads with him. Is this the same guy? Really?

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JBJ

JBJ 3649

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

So, anyway, the polling error is not just sui generis to the elusive shy Trump voter.  The House and Senate polls were shit.  Yes, I know Nate Silver is a modeler and what I’m about to say is a critique of pollsters.

For example,  Susan Collins won Maine by 9%.   Every single poll on RCP had Gideon winning.   The three most recent had Gideon by 7, 6, and 4.   Most polls throughout had Gideon in the plus 4 to 5 range, and Quinnipiac’s last poll (in September - they apparently thought it was a blowout and stopped polling) had Gideon plus 12.

The industry missed the race by about 15 points, the “best” polls missed by 10 points, and one of the biggest name pollsters probably (only qualifying this since their result wasn’t as close to Election Day) missed by 21!

This was one of the most visible battleground Senate elections in the nation.   Tens of millions were spent on that race.   This is insane.

Probably herding (aka polls are choosing not to release outliers or manipulating their methodology to get to closer to the consensus)  

11 of the 14 polls fall within a 5 point range.  That's not impossible - but also not likely to occur naturally.

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TexArcher

TexArcher 37519

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, TtomTerrific said:

Fuck you

Leave my country and if you are in Texas. Leave my state before you are removed

You support criminal, insurgents and terroristic behavior. If I find you, I’ll remove you, film it and post it here

 

Neither you nor any of the other fake-tough-guy-Trumpkin-mark-morons is going to remove me or anyone else from this state.  If you don't like the way this state is trending, then you get the fuck out.  Take your dumb ass to Mississippi where you'll fit in better.

You're all talk.

You're all hat, no cattle.

Take the loss, pussy.

 

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TexArcher

TexArcher 37519

Posted
Posted
On 11/4/2020 at 9:30 AM, gyroprotagonist said:

4kzvk3.jpg

seriously, how else can they explain this shit?

This is what I said for the entire last 18 months, man.  He's always had and always will have a silent bloc of people who don't answer polling calls and don't talk about it at work because they don't want the argument, but they will vote for him.  Maybe they want their tax cut, maybe they want abortion to be illegal, maybe they're racists, or maybe they'd vote for Anton Chigurh if he had the R next to his name.  They might even understand that he's a piece of shit, but there's something they're getting from him that's enough to overlook the rest.  And they'll vote for the next piece of shit Republican, too.

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TommyGufano

TommyGufano 6021

Posted
Posted
On 11/5/2020 at 10:59 AM, TtomTerrific said:


The ones flying Black Lives Matter flags and keeping ballot monitors from the building and covering the widows with newspapers and otherwise blocking whatever the fuck they are doing from view. You unbelievable criminal endorsing cunt?

You are now going right at the franchise. JUST AS WAS PREDICTED YOU WOULD WITH THIS “FLOOD THE SYSTEM MAIL IN, NO ACCOUNTABILITY bullshit. Actively strong arming those who shouldn’t be needed anyway to watch this, but everyone knows what you are up to.....you are going at the foundational tenet of our system of Government. This is why McConnell put 300 federal judges on the bench and three very important ones on the Supreme Court.

You assholes have openly supported the fire bombings, shooting of police, beating of innocent bystanders who didn’t have the right color and now want the police called on me for Something I guess

Fuck You

War

Take the loss, pussy

tenor.gif

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Woland

Woland 729

Posted
Posted

Pollsters are asking the wrong questions. They should be asking about worldwide immigration and the loss of white-Christian rule in the United States. Do you believe in QAnon would also be a good guestion to determine Trump voters.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18981

Posted
Posted
On 11/5/2020 at 12:24 PM, Brisketexan said:

Yeah, I mean.....I don't have any idea where I got the idea that this election is going to result in violence.   I dreamed it in my head, I guess.

Except it has not. Go ahead and ignore that. Trump lost in the most agonizing way possible most likely to lead to problems and there’s been nothing. 
same as it ever was same as it was ever going to be. 
I set the over under in election related deaths at 1.5 and bet the under. Shocking. 
but you managed to find a drunk on a bender willing to pop off on the internet and are now trying to claim the breakdown of society. 
Another data point wrong. Another time you take credit for being wrong by declaring yourself right. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18981

Posted
Posted
On 11/5/2020 at 12:28 PM, aggie08 said:

This. And not in a funny or snide way at all. He needs to take a deep breath, and be left alone for the near future.

He needs to call his sponsor and go to a meeting. I say that not to be a dick but because that’s what is happening. Prayers his way. Seriously. He’s not well and probably can’t help it right now. 

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aggie08

aggie08 21434

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

He needs to call his sponsor and go to a meeting. I say that not to be a dick but because that’s what is happening. Prayers his way. Seriously. He’s not well and probably can’t help it right now. 

100%. It's like people picking on and prodding Derka when he was in a truly dark place a few years ago. For what point or purpose?

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hobbes2702

hobbes2702 12846

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Except it has not. Go ahead and ignore that. Trump lost in the most agonizing way possible most likely to lead to problems and there’s been nothing. 
same as it ever was same as it was ever going to be. 
I set the over under in election related deaths at 1.5 and bet the under. Shocking. 
but you managed to find a drunk on a bender willing to pop off on the internet and are now trying to claim the breakdown of society. 
Another data point wrong. Another time you take credit for being wrong by declaring yourself right. 

The FBI arrested a guy going to shoot up the Philly count. So go fuck yourself for continually downplaying this obvious fucking problem

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18981

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

100%. It's like people picking on and prodding Derka when he was in a truly dark place a few years ago. For what point or purpose?

I was always team derka. I used to be mad at him for taking the bait before I understood he just couldn’t not take said bait. Then it’s compassion instead of disappointment or frustration that you feel. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18981

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

The FBI arrested a guy going to shoot up the Philly count. So go fuck yourself for continually downplaying this obvious fucking problem

0 deaths and counting. The black lives matter mostly peaceful protests some people called them riots had what- something like 10 deaths over the span of a month?  The point isn’t one group is deadly and the other isn’t- the point is neither of them are deadly. We just don’t have a revolutionary populace that kills each other over politics, some occasional Bernie bro shooting up a GOP baseball game or nut shooting at Gabby G notwithstanding. It’s not what we do here in the main. 
 

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hornian

hornian 5205

Posted
Posted
On 11/5/2020 at 10:57 PM, Brisketexan said:

I said the race was a toss-up for the last two months.

I was called a kook, a loon, etc.

The modern polling model is broken, and it is particularly unsuited to poll cult membership as opposed to political leanings.

I blame robo calls. 
 

Seriously. I used to answer unknown local numbers and get polled from time to time. Mostly local election stuff. Then robocalls exploded, stared spoofing local numbers, and now I don’t answer unknown numbers anymore. Haven’t been polled in years. I can’t be the only one. 

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WBT

WBT 20422

Posted
Posted
On 11/5/2020 at 10:57 PM, Brisketexan said:

I said the race was a toss-up for the last two months.

I was called a kook, a loon, etc.

The modern polling model is broken, and it is particularly unsuited to poll cult membership as opposed to political leanings.

Except that it wasn't a toss up.  Closer than the polls said for sure but not particularly close.  2000, 2004, and 2016 were toss-ups.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9935

Posted
Posted

Trump got out the vote. Dems got out the vote better. I don't think the pollsters expected the increased turnout for Trump.

It was close(r) because of how the votes were counted. With Trump in the Oval Office, this moment of rest (for Trump to do the right thing and concede) is honorable, but increases the chances of Trumpian bullshitery. 

But we were warned of the red mirage (due to how the results were tallied and reported) before the election by some - and they should be thanked. 

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DigglerontheHoof

DigglerontheHoof 21065

Posted
Posted
On 11/5/2020 at 11:30 AM, TtomTerrific said:

Fuck you

Leave my country and if you are in Texas. Leave my state before you are removed

You support criminal, insurgents and terroristic behavior. If I find you, I’ll remove you, film it and post it here

Boy, you're not gonna do dick.  Go get you shine box 

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Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand

Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13546

Posted
Posted

Despite (lack of) mobile formatting- much like my own posts-, good article from Arizona.

http://www.tucsonsentinel.com/opinion/report/112120_election_foothills_op/rise-garys-how-gop-lost-foothills-turned-pima-deep-blue/

"I’m talking about the Garys, the Jims and the Helens. These are whites who worked pretty hard on their degrees and spent quite a bit sending their kids to college. They’re not so eager to follow a party when it insists known reality doesn’t exist and if Trump says “Up is platypus” then up is platypus, or you are an enemy of the American people.

The Garys and Helens still might believe tax cuts pay for themselves and that Medicare for All is an anathema. They just refuse to turn their reality over to a 74-year-old despot-in-the-making conjuring new realities on Twitter and in landscaping company parking lots to match his latest tantrums.

The Garys live in the Foothills, and 2020 looks like that area finishes a big-time realignment of its political persuasion. These are highly educated voters, who once voted Republican but have severed their ties with the Party of Trump. For the Foothills denizens, it looks like Trump was the last straw of many loaded on their political backs.

Nate Cohn of the New York Times and Perry Bacon of Politico have done precinct-level analyses of Georgia and found similar results to one another but with a slightly different take. Cohn found what put President-elect Joe Biden over the top in the Peach State was the support of affluent whites, who were well-educated — the Garys and the Helens."

 

"Something else had happened in the mid-00s. The Pima County Republican Party changed. Gone were the moderates and in were the true conservative purists. They were lead by Melvin. They made a lot of noise and made it clear that RINOs were no longer welcome in the party.

Well, it's happened again. The party is no longer what it was, so Republicans become former Republicans when they start asking:

"What do you mean Barack Obama wasn't born here?"

"Can you please show me where it says death panels?"

"Default on our debt? Excuse me?"

"Please explain Benghazi to me and show the scandal."

"This wall of yours will do what, allegedly?"

"Having sex with a porn star while his wife is at home nursing his son?"

"What in the name of Anna Kournikova are you doing around all these Russians?"

"You are saying the virus that killed my mother is a hoax, but voter fraud is real?"

"Know what? Get off my damned xeriscaping and take you stupid red hat with you."

 

 

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