Texas results

[Texaspython 231]

Based on expectations, obviously, not a good night for Dems. I haven’t had a chance to look too closely at anywhere else other than Tarrant. Dems picked up 2 constable seats and Biden may win based on yet uncounted absentee and mail votes. Tarrant Dems wanted to do much more and it’s easy to be disappointed but the trends are still continuing towards a Democratic County.

[immamac 42519]

The real story here is who stayed home with the high turnout. It's a big confirmation that Texas Blacks and Texicans are completely disenfranchised from politics. They are apathetic to the world around them because they have just accepted their fate seemingly. The big question for the next 4 years is how do we get those people to turnout in 70%+ numbers. White people gonna white people and we all know white people are greedy or racist me-first type mother fuckers until they go to college.

[Nueces River Rat 5529]

The real story is how much vote Trump took in South Texas.  He won Zapata County,  came close in Starr  County who hasn't voted for a Republican since Reconstruction.   Or at the very least a Republican had not been very competitive since then.   Trump also won Jim Wells County (home of Ballot Box 13) and almost won neighboring Duval (Land of the Duke) .  Again, much like Starr....   He also got 40% or more in Hidalgo, Willacy and Cameron counties.   I can guarantee you this was not the result of Anglo vote coming out in these counties.  The Trump rallies I saw in the RGV  were mostly 20 to 50 year old Hispanics which should scare the shit out of the Democrats.     I don't but the apathy angle in some locales especially in the RGV because many of the city and school board elections were on the ballot too.  Also gone is the "palanca" and one has to wonder if this played a factor? 

Trump underperformed compared to other Republicans in some of the burbs...  Cornyn did better in Williamson, Hays and Ft Bend Counties than Trump.    Reminds me of Beto vs Cruz in some respects as personality of the candidate can just be turn off to a certain number of voters and they will vote against Him/Her regardless if they have a (R) or (D) by their names.  Cruz rubbed some wrong in these counties while the other down ballot GOP candidates did much better.  

[JimmyJames 12271]

Based on a preliminary look, the two regions that fucked us were DFW and RGV, both for totally different reasons. 
 

Houston, Austin and their suburbs actually did very well overall. Dallas county itself did very well but every single DFW suburb and Fort Worth itself seems to have sucked. And the RGV was horribad but not as determinative as DFW. 
 

Will post more soon. 

[Michael Knight 12898]

lol the Eric and Rudy clown show

 

https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6207171646001

[David Dennison 18658]

Gerrymandered for another ten years.

Yay.

[Texaspython 231]

Running Candace Valenzuela for a swing district is really going to haunt us. That was ripe for the taking but nominating an extreme lefty was foolish. 

[JimmyJames 12271]

My initial post on this was wrong. DFW did fine. 
 

What turned this into a big Republican win instead of a toss up as predicted by the polls was the Hispanic vote. Heavy movement all over the state in favor of trump. Hispanics breaking heavy for trump with greater turnout all over the state turned this from a toss up to an easy Republican win. I had assumed the opposite. 
 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

Looking at the totals from the Valley, Biden performed ridiculously low. I look at the counties to the west and south of, not counting Nueces (Corpus)

From 2016 to 2020, Trump found 86K more votes, while Biden only grew Hillary's total by 10K.

Hillary won this area 70-30, where Biden won 58-42. Did the lie about Biden and fracking scare everyone down there?

 

[JimmyJames 12271]

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Looking at the totals from the Valley, Biden performed ridiculously low. I look at the counties to the west and south of, not counting Nueces (Corpus)

From 2016 to 2020, Trump found 86K more votes, while Biden only grew Hillary's total by 10K.

Hillary won this area 70-30, where Biden won 58-42. Did the lie about Biden and fracking scare everyone down there?

 

There’s no way it was fracking. The change is everywhere. 

[JimmyJames 12271]

Not that it really matters but I thought DFW had gone more for trump based on results for the Dallas 5th court of appeals which I thought were final but turned out to be preliminary. Tough to find info on those races.
 

DFW actually arguably did better for Biden than Houston and its surrounding suburbs. Which makes me think it’s the Hispanics breaking for trump which made Texas a Republican cakewalk. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

I'll be interested to hear more why Trump attracted some Hispanics so much. Since it's such a huge shift it shouldn't be hard for a reporter to conduct interviews.

Aside from the Hispanic votes, I've heard from friends that normally take zero interest in politics but who isn't paying attention this week. There is so much misinformation out there. In the past few days, I've had several friends call me with "I've heard..." and then everything they say is wrong. Like all of the rumors that WI and MI had more votes than voters. 

I could see misinformation being more prevalent in some Hispanic communities than average due to fewer legitimate news sources for them in Spanish. Rumors could fly more in non-English concentrated communities.

[A-Tex Devil 2445]

Disappointed that not a single House of Rep seat touching Austin flipped.  I thought Wendy had a chance.  Party line voters because Chip Roy is awful.

[JimmyJames 12271]

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I'll be interested to hear more why Trump attracted some Hispanics so much. Since it's such a huge shift it shouldn't be hard for a reporter to conduct interviews.

Aside from the Hispanic votes, I've heard from friends that normally take zero interest in politics but who isn't paying attention this week. There is so much misinformation out there. In the past few days, I've had several friends call me with "I've heard..." and then everything they say is wrong. Like all of the rumors that WI and MI had more votes than voters. 

I could see misinformation being more prevalent in some Hispanic communities than average due to fewer legitimate news sources for them in Spanish. Rumors could fly more in non-English concentrated communities.

Something definitely happened. Not saying it’s illegitimate or anything but Texas dems need to figure it out because it’s a crazy turn of events. 

[Texaspython 231]

Tarrant is about to go to Biden

[JimmyJames 12271]

The polls typically don’t reach all the Hispanic vote. I figured that because of that, and because Texas was a toss up, that the unpolled Hispanic vote would send Biden over the top.

In fact, the exact opposite occurred. The unpolled Hispanic vote turned Texas into a Republican cakewalk. 

[Gap03 3286]

16 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Not that it really matters but I thought DFW had gone more for trump based on results for the Dallas 5th court of appeals which I thought were final but turned out to be preliminary. Tough to find info on those races.
 

DFW actually arguably did better for Biden than Houston and its surrounding suburbs. Which makes me think it’s the Hispanics breaking for trump which made Texas a Republican cakewalk. 

If you're still curious about state races, I think this is one of the most comprehensive listings:

https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/general-election-results/?_ga=2.15754419.482636149.1604603606-1967108788.1600195117

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

19 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Something definitely happened. Not saying it’s illegitimate or anything but Texas dems need to figure it out because it’s a crazy turn of events. 

I hear ya and think the same.  It was a huge shift so something appealed or pushed away voters. It's not like Trump was down in McAllen courting votes.

[South Austin 52144]

As a Democrat, I'd love nothing more than to break the Republican stronghold on the Texas Supreme Court.  But as a lawyer, I'm not heartbroken that the Republican incumbent justices all kept their seats.  I just don't think the Democratic Party put up strong enough candidates this year. 

Maybe the tide has been turning enough over the past two statewide elections for the Dems to start backing and putting more money behind better candidates in judicial and non-judicial races. 

[Constant 6722]

41 minutes ago, Texaspython said:

Tarrant is about to go to Biden

It’s fun to feel like you didn’t throw your vote down a well this time. 

[troph 24562]

My initial post on this was wrong. DFW did fine. 
 
What turned this into a big Republican win instead of a toss up as predicted by the polls was the Hispanic vote. Heavy movement all over the state in favor of trump. Hispanics breaking heavy for trump with greater turnout all over the state turned this from a toss up to an easy Republican win. I had assumed the opposite. 
 

Why? What is it that makes trump attractive? Strong man? Pro life? Immigration rhetoric? Socialism smear on Biden?

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

1 hour ago, JimmyJames said:

My initial post on this was wrong. DFW did fine. 
 

What turned this into a big Republican win instead of a toss up as predicted by the polls was the Hispanic vote. Heavy movement all over the state in favor of trump. Hispanics breaking heavy for trump with greater turnout all over the state turned this from a toss up to an easy Republican win. I had assumed the opposite. 
 

one thing about this map that is misleading is that yes, in Harris county, Trump received a higher percentage of the votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. But so did Biden compared to Hillary.  In fact Biden had a higher % point win over Trump than Hillary did.  

 

[Texaspython 231]

Many Texas Hispanics are joining these evangelical churches that tell them who to vote for.

[Macklemore 2870]

South Texas and the Valley have a lot of jobs dependent on oil and gas. Biden basically saying he wants to kill the industry that provides a lot of high paying jobs not requiring a college degree was fucking stupid. The aftereffects of Beto’s senate run and presidential run can’t be understated. He ran as a moderate espousing Texas values and came close to knocking Cruz out. During the primary he revealed his true colors and became the gun grabbing liberal caricature that Republicans have cultivated. Fucking stupid. People here love to hunt. Getting duped by voting for a guy who wants to confiscate your AR is going to reverberate for a long time. Watch - Latinos will be a major component of the multi-ethnic, socially conservative, worker’s party GOP that is being formed. The GOP ran the most diverse slate of Congressional candidates in its history and had a slew of women elected. The GOP is not a dying, old white man party anymore.

[troph 24562]

I love guns. I have guns. The gun issue is bullshit. I’m not saying you are wrong. I’m saying protecting kids and citizens from being sprayed with gunfire in 30 seconds killing dozens and having a thriving hunting culture are not mutually exclusive and 90% of our people know that.

O&G makes sense but it’s also true that wind and solar are big here too. There will be replacement jobs. This one makes sense and Biden messed that up for sure.

[DonkeyCigars 144]

I heard this before, but essentially Hispanics have similar culture of Trump voters (Nuclear/cisgendered family values, value hard work, value family, similar cultural interests in value of beer, football, foods, etc., and very patriarchal where the father/male figure is an elder and leader which could lead to some machismo culture which might lead to mild misogyny and prejudice against others).

Edited November 5, 2020 by DonkeyCigars

[squeegeedegg 723]

As a hispanic, I have no reservations with the generalization that voting "latinos" would feel disenfranchised by the love BLM is getting from the Dems, almost as if in solidarity with the All Lives Matter crowd.  Adding to that, voting Texicans are hardly to be considered culturally anything but regular brisket-on-flour-tortilla Texans like any other rural white person.  Rough analogy but they are not the same Hispanics you see in the urban centers

[Macklemore 2870]

44 minutes ago, troph said:

I love guns. I have guns. The gun issue is bullshit. I’m not saying you are wrong. I’m saying protecting kids and citizens from being sprayed with gunfire in 30 seconds killing dozens and having a thriving hunting culture are not mutually exclusive and 90% of our people know that.

O&G makes sense but it’s also true that wind and solar are big here too. There will be replacement jobs. This one makes sense and Biden messed that up for sure.

Reasonable gun control as you are saying was not the issue. Beto outright said that he supported the confiscation of ARs which lots of us use here for hunting. Opposed to voting for Henry Cuellar, a known commodity, someone voting for Beto took a leap of faith based on the image he cultivated as being a moderate, pro 2nd Amendment Congressman who wanted to work with the other side of the aisle. With Biden-Harris, do you think the same person would take another leap of faith after getting duped by Beto. That is the issue. Also, there are a ton of people who work in law enforcement and border patrol. The majority of those LEOs are Latino. Democrats had a major image problem with that demographic because of their support for defunding the police and other nonsense over the summer. 

Edited November 5, 2020 by Macklemore

[Macklemore 2870]

22 minutes ago, squeegeedegg said:

As a hispanic, I have no reservations with the generalization that voting "latinos" would feel disenfranchised by the love BLM is getting from the Dems, almost as if in solidarity with the All Lives Matter crowd.  Adding to that, voting Texicans are hardly to be considered culturally anything but regular brisket-on-flour-tortilla Texans like any other rural white person.  Rough analogy but they are not the same Hispanics you see in the urban centers

Good post. Latinos in Texas are Texans first like the rest of us. Why would it be surprising if they started voting like the majority of Texans?

Edited November 5, 2020 by Macklemore

[Texaspython 231]

22 minutes ago, squeegeedegg said:

As a hispanic, I have no reservations with the generalization that voting "latinos" would feel disenfranchised by the love BLM is getting from the Dems, almost as if in solidarity with the All Lives Matter crowd.  Adding to that, voting Texicans are hardly to be considered culturally anything but regular brisket-on-flour-tortilla Texans like any other rural white person.  Rough analogy but they are not the same Hispanics you see in the urban centers

This

[Texaspython 231]

1 minute ago, Macklemore said:

Latinos in Texas are Texans first like the rest of us. Why would it be surprising if they started voting like the majority of Texans? Good post

Well, there are a few reasons why it’s different, you should hear how a good number of white Trumpers really feel about Latinos.

 

I think the point is, the National dem message doesn’t quite resonate here. It needs to be tweaked.

[BradInATX 9208]

The Democratic approach to immigration is sort of an Ouroboros isn't it?

"We want to lift up first and second-generation immigrants to give them a chance to succeed and build the American dream for their family, so that they can be comfortable and prosperous and start acting like the rest of us white assholes with money".

Edited November 5, 2020 by BradInATX

[workswithseed 2036]

39 minutes ago, Texaspython said:

Well, there are a few reasons why it’s different, you should hear how a good number of white Trumpers really feel about Latinos.

 

I think the point is, the National dem message doesn’t quite resonate here. It needs to be tweaked.

Wait, legal, or illegal? I love how racist supposed Texans are till you see them buy food, or going on to any type of event in Texas where many Mexicans live. If you're afraid of Mexicans-Americans in Texas, well you might as well leave right now, cause, they've most likely lived there a lot longer than you.

[Texaspython 231]

1 minute ago, workswithseed said:

Wait, legal, or illegal? I love how racist supposed Texans are till you see them buy food, or going on to any type of event in Texas where many Mexicans live. If you're afraid of Mexicans-Americans in Texas, well you might as well leave right now, cause, they've most likely lived there a lot longer than you.

You’re cutting a wide swath that my post didn’t indicate. But I get it, you’re a Trump loving repub who’s angry right now.

[workswithseed 2036]

9 minutes ago, Texaspython said:

You’re cutting a wide swath that my post didn’t indicate. But I get it, you’re a Trump loving repub who’s angry right now.

I'm not angry, and you definitely weren't specific by your use of latinos and what people say about them.

Edited November 5, 2020 by workswithseed

[troph 24562]

I get that Texans are Texans but let's not act like 85% of Texans vote for Trump.  There's a lot of nuance here.  East coast and West coast liberals might not translate here but Ann Richards owned this state for a while and she's a lot of things but modern day Republican she never was.  There are a lot of Ann Richards democrats still around.

 

Edited November 5, 2020 by troph

[gmr548 16513]

multi-ethnic... worker’s party GOP

[fattyflattie 4636]

Definitely not scientific, but the Mexican and Mexican American cowboys on our lease in Jim Wells were very pro-Trump.  I found it very weird, but they also say “wets” and other associated racial slurs like no other so who knows. I didn’t pry into specifics, I was kind of taken aback. 

[gmr548 16513]

Definitely not scientific, but the Mexican and Mexican American cowboys on our lease in Jim Wells were very pro-Trump.  I found it very weird, but they also say “wets” and other associated racial slurs like no other so who knows. I didn’t pry into specifics, I was kind of taken aback. 

I mean at this point we know the result. Trump surge in south Texas is real. Is is permanent for the GOP? Obviously way too early to say. Give that Trump turns out a boatload of low propensity voters, I’m not inclined to think so, but it’s really only a question we can answer a couple cycles from now.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

4 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I mean at this point we know the result. Trump surge in south Texas is real. Is is permanent for the GOP? Obviously way too early to say. Give that Trump turns out a boatload of low propensity voters, I’m not inclined to think so, but it’s really only a question we can answer a couple cycles from now.

Anyone can see that Trump motivates some people to attend rallies and stand in line to vote. Do you see Pence or Cotton motivating that same person. yeah, me neither.

[gmr548 16513]

Anyone can see that Trump motivates some people to attend rallies and stand in line to vote. Do you see Pence or Cotton motivating that same person. yeah, me neither.

Cotton is dangerous bc white suburbanites will definitely go right back to the GOP for him

[Ghost of LL 15492]

25 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I mean at this point we know the result. Trump surge in south Texas is real. Is is permanent for the GOP? Obviously way too early to say. Give that Trump turns out a boatload of low propensity voters, I’m not inclined to think so, but it’s really only a question we can answer a couple cycles from now.

I wonder if we don't have a new paradigm in which high turnout favors the GOP due to its dominance among low-propensity, poorly educated voters.

[troph 24562]

Definitely not scientific, but the Mexican and Mexican American cowboys on our lease in Jim Wells were very pro-Trump.  I found it very weird, but they also say “wets” and other associated racial slurs like no other so who knows. I didn’t pry into specifics, I was kind of taken aback. 

That could be an anti-immigrant view. I’m not like them I did it right. I get that.

I have no judgment, I want to understand.

The evangelical piece is interesting too, is Catholicism declining and evangelicalism increasing among Texas Latinos?

[Macklemore 2870]

45 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Cotton is dangerous bc white suburbanites will definitely go right back to the GOP for him

Bingo. Don’t forget about Hawley too. Both will be non-threatening to white suburban women and give college educated voters cover for voting for 2 polished, Ivy League educated senators. Kristin Noem from South Dakota being the nominee would peel off a lot of women. She’d have a good chance getting elected too. If Tucker Carlson enters the race, game over for the Dems.

Edited November 5, 2020 by Macklemore

[BradInATX 9208]

wrong thread

Edited November 5, 2020 by BradInATX

[gmr548 16513]

I wonder if we don't have a new paradigm in which high turnout favors the GOP due to its dominance among low-propensity, poorly educated voters.

Maybe. I’m not sure I buy that these previously infrequent/non voters swept up in Cult 45 being loyal GOP voters moving forward. But I’m also very skeptical of educated white voters that have shifted remaining democratic. Maybe in the short term since the Democrats didn’t get the trifecta. But as whites become a smaller portion of the country, as minorities slowly entrenched in the halls of power, and especially if the Democrats get full control and pass some progressive legislation, they’ll go home. BT actually put it well - they’re naturally Republican by class interest.

[Constant 6722]

Joe Biden is going to win Tarrant County. I don’t have stats, but it’s gotta be the first time since ‘76. First time in my voting life I feel like I’ve accomplished something at the Presidential level. 

[JimmyJames 12271]

Since I don’t live in an area that speaks predominantly Spanish and wouldn’t understand most of it if I did, I’m wondering if the Trump campaign and the republican operatives didn’t move their 2016 facebook type operation into those outlets filling it with unanswered propaganda. 

I can see movement on some level among Hispanics in Texas and Florida at some level but the levels we are seeing are absolutely huge. They turned a couple counties on the Texas border republican and Miami/Dade was overwhelmingly trumpkin. The numbers are huge. 

It’s at least something to look at. 

[JimmyJames 12271]

And I mean at the margins. They still voted dem overall but the movement to republican was huge.

[JimmyJames 12271]

3 hours ago, fattyflattie said:

Definitely not scientific, but the Mexican and Mexican American cowboys on our lease in Jim Wells were very pro-Trump.  I found it very weird, but they also say “wets” and other associated racial slurs like no other so who knows. I didn’t pry into specifics, I was kind of taken aback. 

Everyone should watch John Sayle’s movie “Lone Star.” Not only is it a great move, but it can somewhat explain the difference we are seeing here between Hispanics in Texas versus those in California and Arizona. The lady who owns the prosperous Mexican restaurant in town despises “wetbacks,” even though she used to be one. 

Prop 187 turned California Democratic because of the Hispanics there. Prop 187 would probably get a lot of support among Hispanics in Texas. 

I’m not saying they are Necessarily wrong. It’s just reality.