Texas results

[cmontexas 3253]

Why do Mexicans like Trump is the new why do Mexicans like Morrissey 

[APMP 685]

Read that Biden took lead in Tarrant. While Texas was ultimately disappointing for Dems this time around, winning Tarrant is probably still a good sign for the future.

[South Austin 52144]

7 hours ago, cmontexas said:

Why do Mexicans like Trump is the new why do Mexicans like Morrissey 

Morrisey for Governor 2022!

[Neonmoon 38127]

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

Must hurt to always look constipated.

[Dnaguy 11775]

Any word on the Texas House seat.. 23? 22? Idk, the one that’s still too close to call and splits between Dallas and Tarrant County.

[gmr548 16513]

 

The most dangerous thing about Austin is the chances of catching face AIDS from Dan Patrick

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

23 hours ago, Macklemore said:

Bingo. Don’t forget about Hawley too. Both will be non-threatening to white suburban women and give college educated voters cover for voting for 2 polished, Ivy League educated senators. Kristin Noem from South Dakota being the nominee would peel off a lot of women. She’d have a good chance getting elected too. If Tucker Carlson enters the race, game over for the Dems.

Kristin Noem would be pretty ideal I’m a lot of ways for something on the ticket. Probably needs to be the top of the ticket now though to move the needle now that Kamala has broken that glass ceiling. Prairie practical populism? 
 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

What happened to Hurd's seat? That seemed like it was obvious it would fall to democrats but the GOP won relatively easily. Was potentially just tied to the Hispanic shift to the right in many of the border counties?

[berlinerbaer 670]

Did this swing to the right by Hispanics in Texas extend to down-ballot candidates or just the top of the ticket? I decided to look at election results in the three border CDs in South Texas compared to 4 years ago. Unfortunately for Democrats, these races also massively lurched to the right by about 15 points this time around, suggesting that it isn't just Trump driving the trend and that there is reason to expect a more evenly split Hispanic vote going forward.

 

CD         Democrat      2016        2020 Margin     Diff

28th      Cuellar           +35          +19                     16

15th      Gonzalez       +19          +3                       15

34th      Vela                +25          +11                     14

 

[TexasEd 8064]

Bad Dem Plays for Texas and most of the country:

• Confiscate guns (Should be reasonable gun laws)
• Defund the Police (Should be retraining and expand mental health services)
• Unlimited abortion access

Take those off the platform and you get a hell of a lot more votes but the core dems want that in there.

[workswithseed 2036]

9 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

Bad Dem Plays for Texas and most of the country:

• Confiscate guns (Should be reasonable gun laws)
• Defund the Police (Should be retraining and expand mental health services)
• Unlimited abortion access

Take those off the platform and you get a hell of a lot more votes but the core dems want that in there.

Wasn't it a Missouri rep who didn't like how the lefter parts of the Dems hurt her chances? I might be wrong since I don't see anything like I'm saying trying to find it.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

5 hours ago, TexasEd said:

Bad Dem Plays for Texas and most of the country:

• Confiscate guns (Should be reasonable gun laws)
• Defund the Police (Should be retraining and expand mental health services)
• Unlimited abortion access

Take those off the platform and you get a hell of a lot more votes but the core dems want that in there.

Shows there is a communication problem because these not views of any of the democrats running. I assume deeper review will find false social media information being shared.

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4968]

On 11/5/2020 at 5:16 PM, troph said:

That could be an anti-immigrant view. I’m not like them I did it right. I get that.

I have no judgment, I want to understand.

The evangelical piece is interesting too, is Catholicism declining and evangelicalism increasing among Texas Latinos?

Don't forget that there are a lot of Tejanos who's ancestors became Texans in 1836. It's still an anti immigrant stance in that case, but not so much an "I've got mine, screw the rest" type thing. We shouldn't assume that just because someone is of hispanic heritage that they are an emigrant or descended from immigrants.

[troph 24562]

12 hours ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

Don't forget that there are a lot of Tejanos who's ancestors became Texans in 1836. It's still an anti immigrant stance in that case, but not so much an "I've got mine, screw the rest" type thing. We shouldn't assume that just because someone is of hispanic heritage that they are an emigrant or descended from immigrants.

that's a good point, thank you.

[bolverk 29399]

On 11/5/2020 at 12:47 PM, JimmyJames said:

My initial post on this was wrong. DFW did fine. 
 

What turned this into a big Republican win instead of a toss up as predicted by the polls was the Hispanic vote. Heavy movement all over the state in favor of trump. Hispanics breaking heavy for trump with greater turnout all over the state turned this from a toss up to an easy Republican win. I had assumed the opposite. 
 

I spent a little time this morning to update this map with more complete results.

It obviously shows how much better Trump did along the border from Brownsville up to El Paso and extending into the Permian Basin. I point out the Permian because of the oil thing and how Dems didn't really make up a lot of ground in Harris County. Moreover, Houston's suburban counties didn't shit leftward nearly as much as those in North and Central Texas.

Just as notable was the almost uniform leftward shift in the Hill Country (though Chip effin' Roy still somehow won by a larger margin, so this map simply shows a repudiation of Trump and not Republicans).

One other more subtle shift away from Trump can be seen in almost all the smaller core metro counties (except for those along the border and Permian Basin). Potter Co. (Amarillo), Lubbock, Wichita, Taylor Co. (Abilene), Tom Green Co. (San Angelo), Bowie Co. (Texarkana), Gregg Co. (Longview), Smith Co. (Tyler), McClennan Co. (Waco), Bell Co. (Temple/Killeen), Brazos Co. (College Station/Bryan), and Victoria Co. all subtly shifted away from Trump. Now, obviously, Biden didn't win these, but they reflect the larger national trend of metro areas being more Dem friendly...maybe.

But, again, core metro counties that moved toward Trump are either along the Border or are mostly oil dependent: El Paso, Webb Co. (Laredo), Hidalgo (McAllen/Edinburg), Cameron (Brownsville/Harlingen), Nueces (Corpus), Ector (Odessa), Midland, and Jefferson (Beaumont/Port Arthur).

I'm not sure if I'm adding anything to the discussion, but these are the notable aspects I've taken away from the 2020 presidential map in Texas. 

Edit: One final point, Hill Co. (Hillsboro) is the only one stretching from Bexar all the way up the I-35 corridor to the Oklahoma border where Trump's support increased, which supports the "Blue Spine" theory for how Texas is trending.

Edited November 8, 2020 by bolverk

[bolverk 29399]

Here's another way to think of it in simplistic terms. Let's say you drive from Wichita Falls to San Angelo to San Antonio to Victoria to Galveston. During just about the entire drive, in almost every place on your left Trump lost support and on your right he gained support.

 

[JimmyJames 12271]

20 minutes ago, bolverk said:

I spent a little time this morning to update this map with more complete results.

It obviously shows how much better Trump did along the border from Brownsville up to El Paso and extending into the Permian Basin. I point out the Permian because of the oil thing and how Dems didn't really make up a lot of ground in Harris County. Moreover, Houston's suburban counties didn't shit leftward nearly as much as those in North and Central Texas.

Just as notable was the almost uniform leftward shift in the Hill Country (though Chip effin' Roy still somehow won by a larger margin, so this map simply shows a repudiation of Trump and not Republicans).

One other more subtle shift away from Trump can be seen in almost all the smaller core metro counties (except for those along the border and Permian Basin). Potter Co. (Amarillo), Lubbock, Wichita, Taylor Co. (Abilene), Tom Green Co. (San Angelo), Bowie Co. (Texarkana), Gregg Co. (Longview), Smith Co. (Tyler), McClennan Co. (Waco), Bell Co. (Temple/Killeen), Brazos Co. (College Station/Bryan), and Victoria Co. all subtly shifted away from Trump. Now, obviously, Biden didn't win these, but they reflect the larger national trend of metro areas being more Dem friendly...maybe.

But, again, core metro counties that moved toward Trump are either along the Border or are mostly oil dependent: El Paso, Webb Co. (Laredo), Hidalgo (McAllen/Edinburg), Cameron (Brownsville/Harlingen), Nueces (Corpus), Ector (Odessa), Midland, and Jefferson (Beaumont/Port Arthur).

I'm not sure if I'm adding anything to the discussion, but these are the notable aspects I've taken away from the 2020 presidential map in Texas. 

Edit: One final point, Hill Co. (Hillsboro) is the only one stretching from Bexar all the way up the I-35 corridor to the Oklahoma border where Trump's support increased, which supports the "Blue Spine" theory for how Texas is trending.

At least with respect to trump, DFW and central Texas did great. Houston did pretty good. Bidens debate comment probably hurt there. The valley was a disaster. Dems need to do a deep dive on that one. 

[JimmyJames 12271]

1 minute ago, bolverk said:

Here's another way to think of it in simplistic terms. Let's say you drive from Wichita Falls to San Angelo to San Antonio to Victoria to Galveston. During just about the entire drive, in almost every place on your left Trump lost support and on your right he gained support.

 

Doesn’t Texas still have the option of splitting up into different states? Maybe we should look into that. I’m only kinda joking. 

[RDCanecutter 26275]

On 11/5/2020 at 11:42 PM, cmontexas said:

Why do Mexicans like Trump is the new why do Mexicans like Morrissey 

Give a listen and tell me it's not ten times better than the original.

[RDCanecutter 26275]

On 11/6/2020 at 3:11 PM, Neonmoon said:

 

You can keep all your stats, he knows how skurred it makes him.

[RDCanecutter 26275]

18 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Here's another way to think of it in simplistic terms. Let's say you drive from Wichita Falls to San Angelo to San Antonio to Victoria to Galveston. During just about the entire drive, in almost every place on your left Trump lost support and on your right he gained support.

 

Maybe it's not about people. Maybe it's the big trees that lost love for Trump, but the little scrub brush, they can't get enough.

(yeah yeah I've been in the Abilene/San Angelo wastelands. Is joke.)

[Nueces River Rat 5529]

On 11/5/2020 at 8:20 PM, JimmyJames said:

Everyone should watch John Sayle’s movie “Lone Star.” Not only is it a great move, but it can somewhat explain the difference we are seeing here between Hispanics in Texas versus those in California and Arizona. The lady who owns the prosperous Mexican restaurant in town despises “wetbacks,” even though she used to be one. 

Prop 187 turned California Democratic because of the Hispanics there. Prop 187 would probably get a lot of support among Hispanics in Texas. 

I’m not saying they are Necessarily wrong. It’s just reality. 

I grew up in the RGV during the 70’s and 80’s and even first generation Mexican Americans and beyond used the term Wetback to describe illegal immigrants.   It wasn’t until I left the area in 1990 to go to college and I used the term  in a conversation that I found it was an offensive term.  I was like that is what almost EVERYONE down home and just 10 miles from the Rio Grande called them. 
 

For what it’s worth since I still keep up with my valley home , I think what you might be seeing with the increase in the Trump/GOP vote amongst Hispanics is some of them questioning why Democrats will bend over backwards to pander to illegal immigrants and not give one bit of time to local concerns when it comes to the cost of allowing or incentivizing illegal immigration.  The burden for the local taxpayers is almost never addressed for a population who by per capita income is one of the lowest in the nation.  They saw all of these AOC social justice like types make repeated trips down there over the last few years along with  the national media to highlight how mean Trump was to immigrants but never asked the locals if they mind flipping the costs or the AOC social justice types if THEY saw the burden it was placing on the local taxpayers and if THEY had a solution to resolve it.  And not just during that media frenzy, but for years and decades leading up to it.   And one just has to look around the RGV and how much it’s grown over the past few decades to see rural communities who once were one town high schools, now have two or more and the primary language spoken is Spanish. Starr County who gave Trump 48% of the vote fits this to a “T”.  The growth down there is not fueled by the same demographic who is doing the same in Austin, San Antonio, Houston, DFW.   In fact if I had to guess out of my class of 300 that graduated in 1990 from a local high school down there, half if not more did not return home if they left for college.  Or if they went to college down there, they left for Grad school or jobs outside of the RGV and didn’t com back. 
 

The other thing I hear from friends who themselves are very vocal Democrats is the newer immigrants whom have arrived over the last decade are not to quick to assimilate like their own relatives did when they immigrated.    They will start moving into a neighborhood and the pride of ownership just isn’t there that was installed into the immigrants of the past.  If you spoke only a Spanish, it was urgent their kids learned English and not just let the schools take this on.   In other words their parents insisted they do these things in order to be accepted by the Anglos and the parents did it themselves if they had a place of business during that time. Now I see some store fronts down there in some of the older downtown business districts that resemble the border town on the other side of the river.      So yes some of the Gen X and older folks  might be signaling they’ve had enough and  are now voting that way because they do not understand why the newer immigrants are not held to the same standards or expectations.  This is not suggesting they want them discriminated against, but once up a time their was a two way street where immigrants saw the need to assimilate and the governments and locals expected the same.  
 

Someone also noted the law and order angle. Many  of the locals are in law enforcement or certainly have friends and family directly or indirectly in law enforcement.   Since 9/11, the numbers of CBP and Homeland Security jobs have skyrocketed along the border and I’d bet my bottom dollar the rhetoric over the past few months influenced some votes, especially when INS and ICE were in the spotlight. We can argue all day if it was earned or not, but the rank and file who just work the inspection lines at the bridges or the checkpoints probably didn’t appreciate being compared to some of the worse human beings on the planet all in the name of trying to score points from a group of people who can’t vote and maybe don’t want to and are content with that as long as they can send money home.