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Sweet Jawja Special Elections

Zonahorn

By Zonahorn
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WBT

WBT 20744

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Pig Bellmont said:

GOP sending Rick Scott, Rubio, and multiple out of state politicians to start holding rallies in GA. But sure, Dems are the ones nationalizing a local election 

 

6 hours ago, Dnaguy said:

So Democrats shouldn’t spend money in Georgia with 2 senate seats on the line?

 

Question Mark What GIF by MOODMAN

I obviously didn't make the point I was trying to make very well.  When national attention falls on local races, it seems to me that it tends to benefit the Republicans.  They will essentially say that New York and California liberals are trying to tell Georgians who to vote for and it works in turning out the Republican base and turning off swing voters.  Of course Democrats should donate money but they should try to keep the visibility of outsiders down.  Things like Andrew Yang saying he's going to move to Georgia are counterproductive imo.

9 hours ago, Queen Bitch said:

“I wonder if Dems have learned that giving Stacey Abrams the financial resources she needs to successfully flip this state...”

Yes, this is the tack they should take.  Georgians running the Georgia election strategy, messaging, turn out strategy, etc.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13302

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, immortal13 said:

The fact that she is a fat cunt

c07.gif

8 minutes ago, WBT said:

I obviously didn't make the point I was trying to make very well.  When national attention falls on local races, it seems to me that it tends to benefit the Republicans.  They will essentially say that New York and California liberals are trying to tell Georgians who to vote for and it works in turning out the Republican base and turning off swing voters.

Do you think the Republicans will NOT say that if the Democrats do as you suggest?

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13302

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, WBT said:

I think that the more truth there is to it the more effective it will be

That's fair.

I guess you have to balance how many Republican voters will be motivated vs how many Democratic voters you don't reach because you didn't bring in outside help. I'm not a fan of letting fear of your opponent dictate your moves. Control the things you can control.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29199

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

@henrygandorf 's new bae

 

it's funny, i texted someone last night about this interview and basically predicted progressive twitter would have a field day with "the last minute of the interview".  i'm sure the whole thing is out there somewhere, axios does a nice job of keeping them to ~5 minutes for those easily distracted.

he already lost this election once, he's in a runoff due to a technicality.  i'm assuming he'll lose again.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19238

Posted
Posted

WBT bringing the truth.  Longhorn Lawyer alluded to it in another thread somewhere else.  The Dems don't want to put any national democratic figure and involve them in this race. They already lost by 2 points (each senate race that was the total number I think) and they lost in the 2016 special while celebrity endorsers were all over the place. 
If they want to win they don't need Hollywood endorsements, they don't need politicians talking about how the fate of the Senate is hanging on this, they don't need to do anything other than say I'm one of you- I will take care of your interests, and these other people aren't taking care of you b/c they are crooks and make that case.  

JMO. I'm fascinated to see how this plays out. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19238

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

What policies of Ossoff will actually get people to vote for him?

Sure he gained plenty of F the Cheeto votes in November but at some point you have to have something outside of "we're the good guys". 

Partisan tilt. Negative partisanship. Negative against Perdue. Hope and change. Platitude. If he wants to win the election anything other than I will make Chuck Schumer run the Senate and Hollywood loves me. 

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Loch Ness Monster

Loch Ness Monster 3533

Posted
Posted (edited)

I'm on "team blue" but I would be shocked if the Dems didn't lose both seats in GA.

Not everyone reads the deep state cabal threads online all day and just want to hear how you are gonna improve their life. 

 

Think that was actually some of the appeal of Cheeto man in 2016 even though he's obviously a conman. He gave the rubes some hope. 

Edited by Loch Ness Monster
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fattyflattie

fattyflattie 4639

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Jon Ossoff is against Medicare for All, against the Green New Deal, against abolishing ICE, against expanding the Supreme Court

 

67% of people from Georgia are concerned about climate change

63% want government run healthcare

 

This dude is gonna lose. 

No he’s not. He’s simply full of shit. 

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wildcat09

wildcat09 29453

Posted
Posted (edited)
21 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

That's fair.

I guess you have to balance how many Republican voters will be motivated vs how many Democratic voters you don't reach because you didn't bring in outside help. I'm not a fan of letting fear of your opponent dictate your moves. Control the things you can control.

You fucking traitor. What kind of Democrat are you?

Edited by wildcat09
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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

We're probably going to lose both seats. Democrats will work maybe 1/4th as hard as the GOP will.

 

I'm waiting for Nate Silver to show the race as a toss up and then I'm getting max bets on PredictIt on Republicans winning both seats. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19238

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I'm waiting for Nate Silver to show the race as a toss up and then I'm getting max bets on PredictIt on Republicans winning both seats. 

What if Q shows it as a 13 point Dem race or something?

One thing though about the polls in GA- even though most of the pollsters beclowned themselves in most of the swing states, GA was one of the states they got fairly accurate.  I'm not sure if that was dumb ass luck or something else in play there, but maybe they will be somewhat accurate?

Really though, we had the best poll humanly possible a week ago and it was GOP +2.  It's all about turnout now, obviously.  

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13302

Posted
Posted

Sanders and AOC already raising hundreds of thousands of dollars for the Warnock/Ossoff campaigns and for local grassroots organizations. The establishment Dems with their billionaires should be beating AOC and Bernie by a factor of 10 at least. Let's see how much they actually care.

Put your money where your mouth is, centrists.

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RDCanecutter

RDCanecutter 26552

Posted
Posted
On 11/11/2020 at 9:09 AM, burntorangebongos said:

People are the most important asset of any state and you don't want to invest in their education? How short sighted is that? I don't understand the logic of not prioritizing the education of your citizenry. 

Why pay to educate those poor children down the road, when every year 100,000 quiet and mildly-depressed Ohioans will come fill up your new housing developments, and push whatever paper needs pushing in your office? They come pre-educated enough to be useful, but not so much as to be uppity.

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HenryJames

HenryJames 66279

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, bad_teammate said:

Sanders and AOC already raising hundreds of thousands of dollars for the Warnock/Ossoff campaigns and for local grassroots organizations. The establishment Dems with their billionaires should be beating AOC and Bernie by a factor of 10 at least. Let's see how much they actually care.

Put your money where your mouth is, centrists.

Seriously? 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13302

Posted
Posted

From the Tweet thread Bama posted...

Right now, focus is on digital, text and phone. But Dem strategist said canvassing may pick up: “Joe Biden won Georgia without a massive door-knocking effort… That said, it is a runoff so voter awareness is lower. Safe door-knocking closer to Jan. 5 may be necessary to win.”

Joe Biden won because he was running against a deeply hated person. Ossoff and Warnock are not running against deeply hated people. We need to be on the ground NOW.

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quigley

quigley 1563

Posted
Posted
On 11/10/2020 at 8:53 PM, Loch Ness Monster said:

My mom lives in GA and voted for the first time in 20 years (for Biden) cause fuck Donald Trump.

That's not gonna be enough for people like her to show back up in January.

You're probably right. The partisan lean in GA favors the R's, and GA is quite inelastic.

That said, neither Perdue nor Loeffler have done much during their time in the Senate except insider trade. So they have negative name recognition.

D's have a great leader in GA, Abrams, who's shown in two consecutive cycles that she can mobilize voters in the state.

The cost of inaction is too great not to try to mobilize GA voters.

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babysdaddy

babysdaddy 2730

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, quigley said:

You're probably right. The partisan lean in GA favors the R's, and GA is quite inelastic.

That said, neither Perdue nor Loeffler have done much during their time in the Senate except insider trade. So they have negative name recognition.

D's have a great leader in GA, Abrams, who's shown in two consecutive cycles that she can mobilize voters in the state.

The cost of inaction is too great not to try to mobilize GA voters.

She's shown what, exactly?  She lost her race for Governor and, reading below, she's not the reason there are runoffs in Georgia.

 

David Shor's Postmortem

 

That basic pattern holds for Georgia specifically?

Yes. If you look at county-level returns in Georgia, it’s pretty clear that nonwhite voters, as a share of the electorate, decreased at a time when the nonwhite share of the state’s population probably increased. Relative to the electorate as a whole, nonwhite turnout fell. And then, among nonwhite voters who turned out, support for the Democratic nominee fell. That’s just not consistent with nonwhite turnout being the decisive factor. The only reason we won is that there were these very large swings toward us among college-educated white people in the Atlanta suburbs.

Now, you can argue for the counterfactual — maybe Black turnout and Black support would have fallen by more if we didn’t do the organizing. That’s possible. In practice though, the empirical effectiveness of all of these election practices are vastly overestimated by people in the industry. I think people in progressive politics have a love affair with the idea of mobilization, just because it seems to promise a way of winning without ideological compromise; all we have to do is turn out all of these non-voting Democrats and then we’ll win. We don’t have to make any changes or try to appeal to Republicans. But Democrats have invested tremendously in get-out-the-vote efforts over the past decade. And I think that it’s pretty clear that none of these interventions worked particularly well. It turns out the effects of canvassing are much lower than people think. The effects of sending get-out-the-vote mail is lower than people think. The effects of these large-scale organizing programs are much less than people think.

And then there’s the other problem with the mobilization theory: As education polarization increases, this truism that “if more people vote, we win” is increasingly less true. If you look at some of the county-level returns in Wisconsin, I think there’s very good evidence that the marginal nonvoters who came out this time — but not last time — leaned Republican. I think that as non-college whites become more and more conservative, the pool of nonvoters has gone from being an overwhelmingly Democratic group to relatively even. Those trends are going to continue. And frankly, if nonwhite, non-college-educated voters keep drifting away from us, it’s going to continue in another direction too.

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11669

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

Nobody posted the new polls? This thread should never be on the bottom of the page. Cloak Room disappointing me.

 

so we should read those polls as warnock 49% +/- 30, Loeffler 48% +/- 30.  something like that?  hey! we were totally right! it was well within the margin of error!

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