Sweet Jawja Special Elections

[wildcat09 29,353]

 

It's amazing we still haven't heard a peep about this from the board's anti-religious discrimination folk. 

[tantric superman 4,667]

I guess I want to believe.

But I'm not going to make myself believe.

[Wulaw Horn 19,069]

3 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

 

It's amazing we still haven't heard a peep about this from the board's anti-religious discrimination folk. 

I don’t understand what your point is. Seriously, have you ever attended a church of any kind in your life?  Nobody, but nobody gets more fired up about differences, even slight differences, in theology than church goers and anyone siding against Israel is basically burn at the stake heresy in most churches. I’m surprised people aren’t openly running commercials about him being the Antichrist. 
btw-the above I’m talking about isn’t about secular politics it’s about how things go in most of the churches I’ve been been to or know about. And I’m not arguing this is as it should be!  I’m just saying it is. I mean- you are basically talking about the group of people who boycott and march in front of Joel Osteens church because they think he’s a giant pussy who won’t proclaim him faith. 

was just speaking with the wife and she was telling me one of the people we used to go to Sunday school with refuses to take the vaccine (she’s a nurse) bc of “reasons”. I just looked at her and was like- damn it- church people are the worst and shook my head. 
but seriously- you are making it seem like hypocrisy and it isn’t- it’s consistent and hard wired belief. And it’s no different than the flip side of the twitter mob of liberals waiting to attack anyone who doesn’t 100% toe the line on all things worshiped at the church of secular humanism. 
this is a human impulse and problem. 
 

[wildcat09 29,353]

Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

I don’t understand what your point is. Seriously, have you ever attended a church of any kind in your life?  Nobody, but nobody gets more fired up about differences, even slight differences, in theology than church goers and anyone siding against Israel is basically burn at the stake heresy in most churches. I’m surprised people aren’t openly running commercials about him being the Antichrist. 
btw-the above I’m talking about isn’t about secular politics it’s about how things go in most of the churches I’ve been been to or know about. And I’m not arguing this is as it should be!  I’m just saying it is. I mean- you are basically talking about the group of people who boycott and march in front of Joel Osteens church because they think he’s a giant pussy who won’t proclaim him faith. 

was just speaking with the wife and she was telling me one of the people we used to go to Sunday school with refuses to take the vaccine (she’s a nurse) bc of “reasons”. I just looked at her and was like- damn it- church people are the worst and shook my head. 
but seriously- you are making it seem like hypocrisy and it isn’t- it’s consistent and hard wired belief. And it’s no different than the flip side of the twitter mob of liberals waiting to attack anyone who doesn’t 100% toe the line on all things worshiped at the church of secular humanism. 
this is a human impulse and problem. 
 

My point is that the posters who whined about liberals hating ACB because we hate religion were completely and totally full of shit.

[Wulaw Horn 19,069]

19 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

My point is that the posters who whined about liberals hating ACB because we hate religion were completely and totally full of shit.

It’s not really the same. And did anyone on here actually whine about that?
And what I dig about you is that you are intellectually honest enough to be a big boy and say that you hate religion aren’t you?  God doesn’t exist and anyone believing in him is a low (or high) grade moron without enough testicular fortitude to get through the day without a crutch, right? And then they use this bigoted belief to ruin the world. If that’s not your belief it is a shit load of peoples. I’m for people owning shit and being honest wherever possible. 
I thought you were talking about cake baking by the way and was going to circle back to ask where the state action is in this thing but I read you wrong in that regard I guess. 

[wildcat09 29,353]

4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

It’s not really the same. And did anyone on here actually whine about that?
And what I dig about you is that you are intellectually honest enough to be a big boy and say that you hate religion aren’t you?  God doesn’t exist and anyone believing in him is a low (or high) grade moron without enough testicular fortitude to get through the day without a crutch, right? And then they use this bigoted belief to ruin the world. If that’s not your belief it is a shit load of peoples. I’m for people owning shit and being honest wherever possible. 
I thought you were talking about cake baking by the way and was going to circle back to ask where the state action is in this thing but I read you wrong in that regard I guess. 

A number of posters whined about it in the ACB thread. 

I don't know what I've ever said that would give you the idea I hate religion. I'm agnostic, not an atheist. I've been pretty consistent over the years in not giving a shit about a person's religion so long as they don't push it on others. If one's religion helps make them a better person to others that's good, if it makes them worse that's bad. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,069]

2 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

A number of posters whined about it in the ACB thread. 

I don't know what I've ever said that would give you the idea I hate religion. I'm agnostic, not an atheist. I've been pretty consistent over the years in not giving a shit about a person's religion so long as they don't push it on others. If one's religion helps make them a better person to others that's good, if it makes them worse that's bad. 

Fair enough. Like I said I dig that you are intellectually honest and I believe you. 
the description I gave about some people’s feelings about religion isn’t a majority or even a plurality, but it’s pretty pervasive- maybe 10% of the electorate?  15?  Something like that. 
It’s certainly growing from the time I was a kid. Or at least becoming something mainstream that people say without being ostracized. 
 

[Wulaw Horn 19,069]

Also- we’ve got a poll off again. Emerson and trafalger on one side and others on the other. I see a 12 point spread on RCP in this race between Loeffler down 7 and up 5 in various polls conducted within 4 or 5 days of each other. 
interesting. 

[Walden Ponderer 12,639]

18 hours ago, tantric superman said:

I nominate Equus as our official shaggy play.

Well, duh. I mean, we're all hung like horses, right? Amiright?

[BradInATX 9,208]

23 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Also- we’ve got a poll off again. Emerson and trafalger on one side and others on the other. I see a 12 point spread on RCP in this race between Loeffler down 7 and up 5 in various polls conducted within 4 or 5 days of each other. 
interesting. 

For reference, here are polls that did Georgia in both the POTUS race and are polling for senate

Survey USA - missed by <1% (too blue) - has Ossoff +4 and Warnock +5

Emerson - missed by 2% (too red) - has Ossoff -1 and Warnock -2

Wick - missed by 4% (too red) - has Ossoff -3 Warnock -1 

InsiderAdvantage - missed by 3% (too red) - Ossoff -1 Warnock -1

Ward/Hart - Nailed the presidential race - Ossoff +1 Warnock +1

So basically if you adjust every poll for its skew in the POTUS race, they all come out blue (or tied in one case) for both races.
 

This looks like a nail biter to me. The data seems to look like both the Dems will squeak by. My heart says "don't fall for it" though. This is obviously going to be a turnout race. Normally I'd assume an R win because a lot of low-frequency D voters probably just came out to vote against Trump and won't bother with this. But there is a contingent that won't vote because they think all the Republicans in GA are RINOs helping Biden steal the election.

Who knows. If I have to guess I'm guessing a narrow R win for both. But that's speculation based off of nothing but gut feeling.

Edited December 22, 2020 by BradInATX

[The Dog 44,034]

16 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Also- we’ve got a poll off again. Emerson and trafalger on one side and others on the other. I see a 12 point spread on RCP in this race between Loeffler down 7 and up 5 in various polls conducted within 4 or 5 days of each other. 
interesting. 

That's why you just take the average. In the end RCP's polling averages methodology is pretty sound and I'd say better than 538 - largely because they don't "adjust" the margin like Silver does. Currently both Republicans are ahead by 1 point in the RCP average.

[Wulaw Horn 19,069]

6 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

For reference, here are polls that did Georgia in both the POTUS race and are polling for senate

Survey USA - missed by <1% (too blue) - has Ossoff +4 and Warnock +5

Emerson - missed by 2% (too red) - has Ossoff -1 and Warnock -2

Wick - missed by 4% (too red) - has Ossoff -3 Warnock -1 

InsiderAdvantage - missed by 3% (too red) - Ossoff -1 Warnock -1

Ward/Hart - Nailed the presidential race - Ossoff +1 Warnock +1

So basically if you adjust every poll for its skew in the POTUS race, they all come out blue (or tied in one case) for both races.
 

This looks like a nail biter to me. Gun to my head, both the Dems will squeak by. That's what the data looks like. My heart says "don't fall for it" though. This is obviously going to be a turnout race. Normally I'd assume an R win because a lot of low-frequency D voters probably just came out to vote against Trump and won't bother with this. But there is a contingent that won't vote because they think all the Republicans in GA are RINOs helping Biden steal the election.

Who knows.

Great post agree completely. 

[BradInATX 9,208]

3 minutes ago, The Dog said:

That's why you just take the average. In the end RCP's polling averages methodology is pretty sound and I'd say better than 538 - largely because they don't "adjust" the margin like Silver does. Currently both Republicans are ahead by 1 point in the RCP average.

RCP skewed 1.3% too Trumpy in the general. So if they're showing a 1% lead for team red, it's probably a dead heat. It's going to be a pure turnout race.

Edited December 22, 2020 by BradInATX

[The Dog 44,034]

14 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

This looks like a nail biter to me. Gun to my head, both the Dems will squeak by. That's what the data looks like. My heart says "don't fall for it" though.

I've been thinking they split - Perdue and Warnock. Perdue nearly won the general election outright. The race between Warnock and Loeffler is much closer. 

Edited December 22, 2020 by The Dog

[The Dog 44,034]

6 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

RCP skewed 1.3% too Trumpy in the general. So if they're showing a 1% lead for team red, it's probably a dead heat. It's going to be a pure turnout race.

Depends on the state you look at. I thought they were more accurate with most battlegrounds (other than Wisconsin that nobody got right).

[BradInATX 9,208]

3 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Depends on the state you look at. I thought they were more accurate with most battlegrounds (other than Wisconsin that nobody got right).

The pollsters actually didn't doo too terribly outside of the midwest and Florida. Problem is that those are some of the most important states. But they did ok in GA, NC, and the Sun Belt.

[Buzzrock 14,918]

22 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I've been thinking they split - Perdue and Warnock. Perdue nearly won the general election outright. The race between Warnock and Loeffler is much closer. 

I think this is likely. 

[Js1 85,319]

1 hour ago, Buzzrock said:

I think this is likely. 

I'd buy it.

The track record for appointed incumbents isn't great.  

If they split, it would be something like Warnock 52 - Loeffler 48 and Perdue 51 - Ossoff 49.  

Edited December 22, 2020 by Js1

[washparkhorn 9,939]

headwinds on the horizon . . . 

 

[Biff Tannen 45,678]

15 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

headwinds on the horizon . . . 

 

How do they know 40 and younger is 21% of the runoff?  1) The runoff hasn't happened yet and 2) young people don't exactly answer phone calls which are somehow still the preferred way to poll people.  They don't know shit about how many young voters are going to turn out.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

If you are depending on a poll for insight when it’s within 5 points, you might as well flip a coin. Polls sucked ass this year just like they sucked ass in 2016.  

I wish that as soon as 2018 ended, I would have guessed the 2020 state by state results.  I imagine NC and GA would be the only ones I’d miss, far better that any poll. 

[washparkhorn 9,939]

 

1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

How do they know 40 and younger is 21% of the runoff?  1) The runoff hasn't happened yet and 2) young people don't exactly answer phone calls which are somehow still the preferred way to poll people.  They don't know shit about how many young voters are going to turn out.

Early voting numbers - https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html

 

[Biff Tannen 45,678]

2 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

 

Early voting numbers - https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html

 

So far there are 50k people who didn't vote in the general and there are still more early voting dates to come.  I know two people under 40 in Georgia that haven't voted yet and plan to vote early.  I guess it's better than nothing, but I think polls are essentially worthless these days.  The polling apparatus is completely antiquated.

[Satchel 6,938]

12 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

My point is that the posters who whined about liberals hating ACB because we hate religion were completely and totally full of shit.

I get your point. There’s was quite a bit of whining about ACB being objectified because of her faith. For the the record, black church going Georgians, the majority of whom have been theologically formed in the prophetic tradition of the black church, don’t have an Israel obsession.

[Mole 4,330]

18 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

A number of posters whined about it in the ACB thread. 

That’s because some of the stuff in that thread was pure bigotry. It’s pretty much inevitable whenever religion is discussed here (or anywhere on the internet) that there will be a fair share of anti-religious bigotry. This is distinct from anyone who thinks religion is stupid/harmful/whatever and certainly distinct from acknowledging the obvious hypocrisies that come up. The bigotry is always amplified when then ugly union of politics and religion comes up.  

Living in Georgia, the attacks against Warnock are ubiquitous and pretty ugly. The mailers are out of control. At least Purdue has backed off the anti-Semitic ads this time around (so far), so let’s celebrate the progress.

I’m not sure if I’d call the attacks against Warnock religiously-based even though they’re using his sermons and support of Jeremiah Wright. The attacks are wholly dishonest, but I still wouldn’t characterize the attacks as specifically religiously bigoted or religious discrimination.

From one perspective, it sounds like they’re attacking him for actually preaching the Gospel, but it isn’t religiously based in the same way the ACB stuff was. The attacks are about fabricated versions of his politics as revealed through out of context clips of his preaching. They aren’t attacking his religion so much as using his public words to construct an anti-American straw man. The stuff that came up about ACB involved complete and dishonest misreadings of the practices of her religious group wrapped in old fashioned anti-Catholic bigoted tropes. It was drawing conclusions based specifically on religious affiliations.

ACB was deemed unqualified by a few on that thread because of her religious affiliations and beliefs; Warnock has been deemed anti-American by his opponent because his public words — that happen to largely be sermons — can be edited to sound so. Maybe it’s too fine of a line to draw, but I see them as different kinds of ugliness and dishonesty.

If you want to call the attacks on Warnock terrible, dishonest, and disgusting, I agree; if you want to call them based on bigotry, I’d also agree; if you want to call the attacks religiously bigoted, I’m not so sure. 
 

I’d add that I’m in general agreement with the main point of the letter. I just see it more as a race issue than a religion issue. I can understand how black ministers might not see any distinction.

Edited December 23, 2020 by Mole

[Zonahorn 8,079]

Nate Cohn on Twitter: "Early voting tapered off a bit in Georgia yesterday, which can't be considered any great surprise as we head into the holidays Nonetheless, Democrats continue to outrun their standing from this point of the general, thanks to a stronger Black turnout https://t.co/dR41yCDjHc" / Twitter

I want to believe

[Gil Bang 25,949]

 

[Wulaw Horn 19,069]

On 12/23/2020 at 4:20 AM, Mole said:

That’s because some of the stuff in that thread was pure bigotry. It’s pretty much inevitable whenever religion is discussed here (or anywhere on the internet) that there will be a fair share of anti-religious bigotry. This is distinct from anyone who thinks religion is stupid/harmful/whatever and certainly distinct from acknowledging the obvious hypocrisies that come up. The bigotry is always amplified when then ugly union of politics and religion comes up.  

Living in Georgia, the attacks against Warnock are ubiquitous and pretty ugly. The mailers are out of control. At least Purdue has backed off the anti-Semitic ads this time around (so far), so let’s celebrate the progress.

I’m not sure if I’d call the attacks against Warnock religiously-based even though they’re using his sermons and support of Jeremiah Wright. The attacks are wholly dishonest, but I still wouldn’t characterize the attacks as specifically religiously bigoted or religious discrimination.

From one perspective, it sounds like they’re attacking him for actually preaching the Gospel, but it isn’t religiously based in the same way the ACB stuff was. The attacks are about fabricated versions of his politics as revealed through out of context clips of his preaching. They aren’t attacking his religion so much as using his public words to construct an anti-American straw man. The stuff that came up about ACB involved complete and dishonest misreadings of the practices of her religious group wrapped in old fashioned anti-Catholic bigoted tropes. It was drawing conclusions based specifically on religious affiliations.

ACB was deemed unqualified by a few on that thread because of her religious affiliations and beliefs; Warnock has been deemed anti-American by his opponent because his public words — that happen to largely be sermons — can be edited to sound so. Maybe it’s too fine of a line to draw, but I see them as different kinds of ugliness and dishonesty.

If you want to call the attacks on Warnock terrible, dishonest, and disgusting, I agree; if you want to call them based on bigotry, I’d also agree; if you want to call the attacks religiously bigoted, I’m not so sure. 
 

I’d add that I’m in general agreement with the main point of the letter. I just see it more as a race issue than a religion issue. I can understand how black ministers might not see any distinction.

I’m not following any of the nitty gritty, and don’t live in Georgia- so I will take what you said as truthful without analyzing it too much. The rest of what you said is really spot on though. Well said. 

[Mole 4,330]

I just saw a great and short Warnock ad. I’ll post it if I can ever find it. Essentially it said, Kelly Loeffler is lying about everything, because if she actually believed what she’s saying about Warnock, why did she speak at his church earlier this year?

[RDCanecutter 26,425]

14 hours ago, Mole said:

I just saw a great and short Warnock ad. I’ll post it if I can ever find it. Essentially it said, Kelly Loeffler is lying about everything, because if she actually believed what she’s saying about Warnock, why did she speak at his church earlier this year?

Warnock needs to post video of Kelly clapping off-beat to a hymn.

[Mole 4,330]

2 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:

Warnock needs to post video of Kelly clapping off-beat to a hymn.

 

Don’t vote for anyone who claps on 1 & 3. The reaction of the drummer gets me every time.

For anyone who doesn’t understand what they’re listening to, the square French are enthusiastically clapping on 1 & 3, killing the feel. During the piano solo, he adds an extra beat, moving the clapping to 2 & 4, making it feel better without killing that square French enthusiasm. You see the drummer raise his hands in triumph right after it happens.

[Bozo_Casanova 26,450]

26 minutes ago, Mole said:

 

Don’t vote for anyone who claps on 1 & 3. The reaction of the drummer gets me every time.

For anyone who doesn’t understand what they’re listening to, the square French are enthusiastically clapping on 1 & 3, killing the feel. During the piano solo, he adds an extra beat, moving the clapping to 2 & 4, making it feel better without killing that square French enthusiasm. You see the drummer raise his hands in triumph right after it happens.

Every time I see that clip the musicianship just blows me away. 

[Mole 4,330]

Harry Connick Jr. is such a fabulous musician. The knowing looks to the band always crack me up. The smoothness and subtlety of the extra beat is brilliant. You barely notice it unless you're listening for it. It doesn't sound like an extra beat shoved in where it doesn't belong; the line makes sense and then suddenly everything starts to groove really hard like magic.

I've used that clip to demonstrate so many concepts. You can show non-musicians how different kinds of music put the emphasis on different beats and how much it actually matters. You can teach musicians of all levels about feel since Harry Connick Jr. plays with such great feel in spite of the audience. You can even show how great musicians raise the levels of those around them and make everyone sound better. He makes the clueless clappers sound good and they don't even know it. We should all aspire to such things in every aspect of our lives.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,190]

On 12/24/2020 at 10:45 AM, Zonahorn said:

Nate Cohn on Twitter: "Early voting tapered off a bit in Georgia yesterday, which can't be considered any great surprise as we head into the holidays Nonetheless, Democrats continue to outrun their standing from this point of the general, thanks to a stronger Black turnout https://t.co/dR41yCDjHc" / Twitter

I want to believe

Don’t. It makes the inevitable choke job easier to handle.

[Beau Vine 54,215]

[Bama Chick 28,596]

Yeah - “negative” votes.

[pacman 7,355]

1 hour ago, Beau Vine said:

Actual Results

In this hypothetical example...

 

 

Fuck me with this bullshit...

Edited December 27, 2020 by pacman

[Neonmoon 38,129]

What’s are the odds of dems taking both? 

[Horn Dog 9,829]

1 hour ago, Bama Chick said:

Yeah - “negative” votes.
 

Yes!  I absolutely support this GOP boycott of voting.  Let show them libtards who’s boss by losing elections!

[Js1 85,319]

16 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

What’s are the odds of dems taking both? 

I predict Ossoff wins 103 to -3 and Warnock wins 127 to -27. Dominion assisted of course. 

[Biff Tannen 45,678]

I mean, not sure how we can’t support this. 

[RDCanecutter 26,425]

At least the machines aren't sending Terminators to cull us.

[bluto 4,927]

The Krakens Gambit

[BradInATX 9,208]

Whatever Democrat created that Dominion Georgia document needs to be in charge of the DNC. That's fantastic stuff and the type of warfare Republicans have been waging for the past 8-10 years. Fire with fire. It's the type of stuff Pelosi and Schumer are too scared to do as they wonder why they keep losing over and over despite the country being left of center as a whole.

[TwiceHorn 31,456]

I love the notion that either Lin Wood or Sidney Powell could "study" an "algorithm" and understand it at all.

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20,396]

So obviously Kelly Loeffler is an unworthy cunt who has absolutely no value as a human being, let alone as a politician.

But there's something about some of this "gotcha"  stuff that bothers me.   Namely, that I've written things on Surly that, were I ever to run for office, I'd have lots of explaining to do.  I'm pretty sure, for example, that at one time in the past I said "I fucking hate my wife/gf/God"  etc...      People who haven't said outrageous stuff on whatever social media platform they favor just to either get a rise out of others, be outrageous, or because they are drunk and foolish or foolishly drunk ---- I think that's far weirder than some of the stuff Kelly Loeffler's press secretary said.  If anything, this points to a failure on the part of Loeffler's team to properly vet this O'Dea chick's twitter feed. 
 

 

[RDCanecutter 26,425]

1 hour ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

So obviously Kelly Loeffler is an unworthy cunt who has absolutely no value as a human being, let alone as a politician.

But there's something about some of this "gotcha"  stuff that bothers me.   Namely, that I've written things on Surly that, were I ever to run for office, I'd have lots of explaining to do.  I'm pretty sure, for example, that at one time in the past I said "I fucking hate my wife/gf/God"  etc...      People who haven't said outrageous stuff on whatever social media platform they favor just to either get a rise out of others, be outrageous, or because they are drunk and foolish or foolishly drunk ---- I think that's far weirder than some of the stuff Kelly Loeffler's press secretary said.  If anything, this points to a failure on the part of Loeffler's team to properly vet this O'Dea chick's twitter feed. 
 

 

It's how the kids today do things. They're all auditioning for Franco's secret police.

[Bruh Man 3,160]

You can't make this shit up. 

 

 

 

[Neonmoon 38,129]

 

[Bruh Man 3,160]

It shows how little they think of the voters' intellect that they believe a last-second tweet before Moscow Mitch blocks the measure would give them cover. It's embarrassing and I'd be offended if I was a Georgia voter. 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Bruh Man