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Sweet Jawja Special Elections

Zonahorn

By Zonahorn
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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9939

Posted
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, ConferenceRoom said:

 


Let’s See Action

 

We are seeing it. A lot of Z's are acutely attuned to the near future. They have more commonality with each other than they do with stuff run by boomers. They are planning what happens when they get in power. They have written off older adults acting with any urgency. 

We reap what we sow, I think. But I understand that narrative.

They might inspire others to vote - simply because this is their future we are supposed to be building. 

Edited by washparkhorn
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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15539

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I bet loeffler can’t wait until Wednesday so she can throw away the jeans, flannel and ball cap that will never be worn again.

There's something gross about the insanely rich cosplaying at "common man" in order to get a job that will allow her to become even more insanely rich.

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Horn Under a Bad Sign

Horn Under a Bad Sign 20469

Posted
Posted

You hate to see it.  More people are moving to Georgia than ever before, and bringing their Democratic politics with them.  

"Beauregard, I think them damn Yankees are comin' in here and tryin' to change our time-honored traditions of keepin' uppity negroes in their place!"

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/03/politics/georgia-newcomers-political-shift/index.html


 

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NWBuck

NWBuck 8578

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

You hate to see it.  More people are moving to Georgia than ever before, and bringing their Democratic politics with them.  

"Beauregard, I think them damn Yankees are comin' in here and tryin' to change our time-honored traditions of keepin' uppity negroes in their place!"

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/03/politics/georgia-newcomers-political-shift/index.html


 

I've wondered about this for a while- with a huge portion of the film industry moving to Georgia, you've got to think that the "progressive" ideologies that they might bring with them would start showing up at the ballot box.

Same question for Texas- You've got folks from LA and Silicon Valley headed your way... is there a purple shift in the future?

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6624

Posted
Posted

If the people in Texas who voted Biden this year would’ve shown up in 2016 Dems would have won Texas by 574k votes. Somehow, their were a hell of a lot of Trump voters who didn’t show in 2016 but came out in 2020.

How the Republican Party moves forward post Trump (alienate supporters or bring in) and how the Democratic Party stays on the ass of its new voters while doing a deep dive in the Valley will be the billion dollar questions for 2022.

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RDCanecutter

RDCanecutter 26462

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, NWBuck said:

I've wondered about this for a while- with a huge portion of the film industry moving to Georgia, you've got to think that the "progressive" ideologies that they might bring with them would start showing up at the ballot box.

Same question for Texas- You've got folks from LA and Silicon Valley headed your way... is there a purple shift in the future?

I think the film industry started moving to Georgia because the creative and technical types were already there, plus of course Georgia basically paying them to do it. Now of course there are more.

As long as I remember, Atlanta was the island to swim to for lots of kid who didn't fit in in small towns within a few hundred miles. Before my time, that would have been NYC. I'm talking about actual Atlanta proper-- the outlying counties, especially north of town, could work themselves into Klantastic fits that were so over the top that you'd suspect maybe they wished they could go be in the theater too.

Just talking about since the 80s, the cooler parts of Atlanta have pushed out a little at a time, while Redneckia slowly relocates a few more miles out. Nothing essential has changed, just the Atlanta bubble has gotten bigger and so it takes up more of Georgia. Squidbillies that can't cope probably sell off and move to Idaho.

I wonder what it would be like now, to be the odd kid out in South Carolina or Alabama, with the internet and cultural change, there's not the same isolation that by itself would run you off to Atlanta. Other cities, say Birmingham, they are more like Atlanta too now as far as having lots more to do. But at this point I think it's all just rolling along anyway.

tldr I've got me a car, it seats about twenty.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89774

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

If the people in Texas who voted Biden this year would’ve shown up in 2016 Dems would have won Texas by 574k votes. Somehow, their were a hell of a lot of Trump voters who didn’t show in 2016 but came out in 2020.

How the Republican Party moves forward post Trump (alienate supporters or bring in) and how the Democratic Party stays on the ass of its new voters while doing a deep dive in the Valley will be the billion dollar questions for 2022.

If you go and look at any and all Trump supporters here in Texas that you personally know, check their voting records.  I was surprised at how many Trump supporters I know or am related to, who didn't vote in 2016, and generally didn't appear to be interested in voting at all.

Trump did a masterful job of making these people feel empowered once he was in office, and they turned out for him in 2020.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89774

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:

Just talking about since the 80s, the cooler parts of Atlanta have pushed out a little at a time, while Redneckia slowly relocates a few more miles out. Nothing essential has changed, just the Atlanta bubble has gotten bigger and so it takes up more of Georgia. Squidbillies that can't cope probably sell off and move to Idaho.

So is Squidbillies satire or a documentary? 

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EuroHorn

EuroHorn 3268

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 1/2/2021 at 3:36 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I bet loeffler can’t wait until Wednesday so she can throw away the jeans, flannel and ball cap that will never be worn again.

Her parents were soybean and corn farmers in Illinois, so she’s probably pretty comfortable in those clothes 

Edited by EuroHorn
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Tom

Tom 2959

Posted
Posted
On 1/1/2021 at 4:25 PM, EuroHorn said:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/31/politics/ossoff-loeffler-kkk-fact-check/index.html
 

 

This lie should be disqualifying.  I only wish the Democrats could be more level headed and only lie about minor things like Republicans, such as fake voter fraud in multiple states and trying to destroy democracy for personal gain.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45697

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Tom said:

 

This lie should be disqualifying.  I only wish the Democrats could be more level headed and only lie about minor things like Republicans, such as fake voter fraud in multiple states and trying to destroy democracy for personal gain.

Well, you see, Republicans have different rules.  It says so in the Constitution.  Or something.  I'm pretty sure.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45697

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

don't fall for it.  it's all theater.  they'll still vote.  you are trying to apply good faith to a situation that is fundamentally bad faith.

This.  My buddy lives in rural Georgia and he said there are definitely a good amount of people at the polls.

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hpslugga

hpslugga 4062

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

This.  My buddy lives in rural Georgia and he said there are definitely a good amount of people at the polls.

Sure but it was never going to be a shutout or anything remotely close to it. What they’re talking about is a not insignificant mitigation of R turnout. Couple that with the reported impressive early turnout, which again favors the D’s, I wouldn’t at all be shocked if Warnock and Ossoff swept this thing.

As I said before, this is like the moment the 1992 AFC Wildcard game went into the OT coin toss. I don’t need to remind anyone who here is playing the role of Houston and who is playing the role of Buffalo. 

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yoladu

yoladu 4094

Posted
Posted
On 1/2/2021 at 10:07 AM, Queen Bitch said:

This is ugly.

 

lulz.. people are idiots... the lawyer of Harvey Weinstein?

a politician, that receives a donation from the lawyer who represented Michael Cohen, has probably lied to Congress.

a politician, who received a donation from the lawyer who represented Donald Trump in the Trump University lawsuit, has also probably defrauded people?

Is that how this works?

stupid is as stupid does.

 

 

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Js1

Js1 85490

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I will absolutely be shocked.  I'm not going to let Lucy pull the football away again.  But I hope you're right.

I would be shocked by a sweep.

I would not be shocked by a split - appointed Senators have pretty shitty track records of winning their first election, if they even make it out of their primary.  

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Js1

Js1 85490

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

"Don't California My Texas" bumper stickers errrwhere. 

Off topic, but was reading a HILARIOUS first-hand experience of a Californian who moved to Austin and was like "holy shit, this actually sucks" and moved back.

TLDR version:

  • Energy and water costs for their 4000 sq feet home were insane compared to California energy costs (they mention doubling their home size, so yes, energy costs go up + you run your AC 24/7 for like 8 months of the year) 
  • Things like pool maintenance, landscaping, etc. cost too much
  • No good public lands within driving distance and nowhere to go - no rafting or mountains that's not a 7+ hour drive
  • Austin drivers suck
  • Not very friendly towards Californians (no wai!!!)
  • It's too hot and/or rains too much - flooding, bugs and sweating
  • One time on a Saturday, they couldn't get into Enchanted Rock, so it was the worst experience EVER. 
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F250

F250 28809

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, yoladu said:

this in the top 5 of Texags political board complaints.

I recently had an aggy tell me they visited the hill country and complained about all the Californians moving into the area. Apparently the Texas wine trail is too California for his tastes. I'll take California expats in the hill country over East Texas aggy any day of the week.

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Jive Turkey

Jive Turkey 12639

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, yoladu said:

lulz.. people are idiots... the lawyer of Harvey Weinstein?

tenor.gif

and here i thought things couldn't get more wheels off than Roy Moore running in Alabama.  Georgia says "hold my beer."  between Qanon Marjorie Greene and crooked Loeffler, those people at bat shit cray cray.

i think a Dem sweep is doable.

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F250

F250 28809

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Off topic, but was reading a HILARIOUS first-hand experience of a Californian who moved to Austin and was like "holy shit, this actually sucks" and moved back.

TLDR version:

  • Energy and water costs for their 4000 sq feet home were insane compared to California energy costs (they mention doubling their home size, so yes, energy costs go up + you run your AC 24/7 for like 8 months of the year) 
  • Things like pool maintenance, landscaping, etc. cost too much
  • No good public lands within driving distance and nowhere to go - no rafting or mountains that's not a 7+ hour drive
  • Austin drivers suck
  • Not very friendly towards Californians (no wai!!!)
  • It's too hot and/or rains too much - flooding, bugs and sweating
  • One time on a Saturday, they couldn't get into Enchanted Rock, so it was the worst experience EVER. 

This reminds me of an interaction I had with a family that were from Ohio and experiencing their first Texas summer. It was late June and I was holding daily Little League All Star baseball practice.

The Mom and Dad to me one late afternoon practice...

spacer.png

 

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

Posted
Posted

I haven't posted much since March on Surly just because I just got way too addicted and pissed off so I haven't read through the entire thread. I live in the Atlanta metro area where we're seeing really good turnout in Dem leaning areas versus GOP.

https://www.georgiavotes.com/

If you look at the racial breakdown of all the early votes (in person + absentee) you'll see that electorate is 30.9% Black compared to the end of EV in the general where it was 27.8%. That number should climb to above 31% after a ton of absentee ballots, which are more overwhelmingly D friendly, get processed today. I cannot emphasize enough of how much of a hill the GOP has to climb tomorrow in order to win these seats. The electorate being over three points more Black going into election day means you would need to see probably higher than election day turnout in November or almost no Democrat heavy precincts with voters, I don't think the latter is likely given how much advertisement and messaging has been aimed in my area for over two solid months.

You can see how rural turnout in the NW and SE parts of the state are lagging, the SW part is the Black Belt where rural counties are majority, or close to, Black.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/stephen.fowler#!/vizhome/EarlyVotingTurnout15Georgia/DropoffInEarlyVotingFrom113

Yes more people may have not voted early this time because of the holidays, Trump's conspiracy shit, or whatever but that is going to cut both ways. Fulton county, the largest and close to the most Dem friendly, had one fewer in-person EV day and likely should have a healthy turnout tomorrow which will blunt any possible insane turnout we see in NW Georgia where Trump is having his ranting ego-stroking rally. The GOP could still win but they are clearly in a worse position than they were before election day in November.

Lastly, just in terms of what I'm seeing, it's mostly pro-Warnock and Ossoff stuff everywhere with some Loeffler and Perdue signs. That doesn't mean much, but what did shock me was seeing some smart subterfuge by groups to put up advertisements in Forsyth County (super MAGA exurb of Atlanta) of Lin Wood's own quotes saying "Loffler and Perdue didn't deliver Georgia to Trump." Not sure how much that will have an effect versus just Trump being not being on the ballot and that dampening turnout, but any depression along the margins will help Dems.

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Js1

Js1 85490

Posted
Posted

GOP needs:

  • To win 60+% of the vote in person, based on the modeled Early Vote being upwards of D+9-11
  • And needs 1 million+ Republican voters to turn out in person (which is more than Election Day turnout for November was)
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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13050

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Off topic, but was reading a HILARIOUS first-hand experience of a Californian who moved to Austin and was like "holy shit, this actually sucks" and moved back.

TLDR version:

  • Energy and water costs for their 4000 sq feet home were insane compared to California energy costs (they mention doubling their home size, so yes, energy costs go up + you run your AC 24/7 for like 8 months of the year) 
  • Things like pool maintenance, landscaping, etc. cost too much
  • No good public lands within driving distance and nowhere to go - no rafting or mountains that's not a 7+ hour drive
  • Austin drivers suck
  • Not very friendly towards Californians (no wai!!!)
  • It's too hot and/or rains too much - flooding, bugs and sweating
  • One time on a Saturday, they couldn't get into Enchanted Rock, so it was the worst experience EVER. 

The bit about the public lands has an element of truth. California did that pretty damn well, plus they've got some National park too.

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RDCanecutter

RDCanecutter 26462

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

tenor.gif

and here i thought things couldn't get more wheels off than Roy Moore running in Alabama.  Georgia says "hold my beer."  between Qanon Marjorie Greene and crooked Loeffler, those people at bat shit cray cray.

i think a Dem sweep is doable.

Yeah, Moore was the first crack in the brick wall of Deep South Conservatism. All the way back to the old-timey Confederate veteran Democrats, up through Reagan Republicans, to current TrumpBoatTrump acolytes, the well-behaved White man selected by the elders should have cruised to victory. Short of child-creeping accusations, Moore should have stumbled in to a win, if not 70-30, at least 55-45.

Pre-child-creeping accusations, Moore's quirks probably balanced out in the votes gained/lost column. People who knew his family told me they liked them. I once heard some dude talking on the radio about life in general, didn't know who it was, and thought the speaker was somebody I'd enjoy a beer with. Except we wouldn't drink a beer because it was Roy Moore. I didn't know it was Roy Moore but I thought Roy Moore sounded cool for a minute. I LIKED ROY MOORE. Ewww ewwe eww Hit me with the hose, blast me with water, do it.

We only had Senator Doug Jones for a minute, but you gotta know that in some dark night of the soul, Stacey Abrams and  other people said "Yeah, odds are long, but those fuckers in GREENBOW ALABAMA figured out how to do it, maybe I can too."

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