Sweet Jawja Special Elections

[Biff Tannen 45701]

4 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

 

As I understand it, the Congressional objection could drag this out another ten days.

 

I think you are talking about the Biden "confirmation" or whatever.

[Ghost of LL 15539]

53 minutes ago, Js1 said:

LOL I've already seen the usual "durr, Republicans have REAL JOBS and don't vote until after 5pm, you dumb libtards" 

That has been the conventional wisdom for as long as I've been following politics.  I don't know how much evidence has historically supported it.

But in the Covid Times, I think it makes more sense.  People who can work from home can go to the polls anytime.  And those people are disproportionately white-collar, higher-educated workers (i.e., Democrats).

People who have to go to work, and who can't go to the polls until after 5:00, are the people who can't work from home.  They tend to be lower-educated workers.  To the extent they're Black, they're obviously voting disproportionately Democratic.  But to the extent they're white--and there are a lot of white lower-educated people who didn't vote during early voting--that's a big Trumpublican vote.

[Buzzrock 14936]

I think you are talking about the Biden "confirmation" or whatever.

You’re right, sorry, dipping into lots of sources today.

So in that case I hope that the GA SOS puts all that practice counting to good use.

I still expect whoever loses to claim fraud though.

[BrickHorn 18262]

I suffer from Democrat optimism fatigue. We always get our hopes up based on some NPR hipster’s fancy regression analysis and rosy what-if scenarios, only to see the angry dipshit voters show up in unexpected numbers and the assholes prevail yet again. 

These two races will go comfortably to the awful GOP candidates. The Republicans will retain the Senate and prevent Dems from implementing any important reforms. In 2022, for the third consecutive cycle, the future of American democracy will hang in the balance. 

Edited January 5, 2021 by BrickHorn

[RDCanecutter 26462]

I guess it's good every few generations to dust off these old backup procedures and look at them. And since Tom Jefferson knew that it'd be self-serving conniving bastards doing it, this is how the machine was designed to run.

[BrickHorn 18262]

Nm

Edited January 5, 2021 by BrickHorn

[Aqua Buddha 14600]

1 hour ago, Bruh Man said:

It's over.

 

Someone let me know if he cared about things like this during the Kemp/Abrams race.

[shakahorn 1645]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Texas had a good reason for them - from what I recall, for many counties, the theory was that most residents could make it to and from the county seat within a day's ride.

I've heard that in several states, KS, NE off the top of my head in addition to the ones mentioned.  Same story, one day's ride on a horse.  Curiously, no one who's told me that can tell me how far a horse can go in a day, or half a day, as it were.  Kinda makes me thing urban legend.  Or rural legend.

[Neonmoon 38130]

58 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I think we will have an idea.  The Georgia SOS expects that we will know by tomorrow morning (bc of the pre-canvassing of mail-in ballots so they can be counted quickly - all they have to do is run through the machines as they've already been opened, signatures verified, etc.). 

Thanks. I'm glad they let them pre-canvass. If we have to do another PA bullshit, this could take forever. 

[RDCanecutter 26462]

9 minutes ago, shakahorn said:

I've heard that in several states, KS, NE off the top of my head in addition to the ones mentioned.  Same story, one day's ride on a horse.  Curiously, no one who's told me that can tell me how far a horse can go in a day, or half a day, as it were.  Kinda makes me thing urban legend.  Or rural legend.

Depends on whether you're fleeing from the Sheriff, or want to arrive somewhere in halfway-decent bidness-conducting state. I'd go with under 30 miles. That's assuming there'd even be roads, or bridges, or how far around swamps and thickets you'd have to go.

So I'm going with "probably an urban legend, but maybe also part true."

What I know of Alabama counties, which are normal-sized instead of cute little baby Georgia county size, is they mostly look like they'd fit the horse -in-a-day's-travel story now. But when they were setting up the state, some of them were much bigger than that at a time when there was no infrastructure other than the Federal Road and the rivers, where you might be lucky to get somewhere in a week, depending on the weather. Then they split them up smaller to about where they are now.

One cool thing about that "day's travel" thing was that each county had some kind of big hotel at the county seat. No way you can do town bidness and get back the same day. You know there was a party going on there

[406W30th 1111]

7 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Thanks. I'm glad they let them pre-canvass. If we have to do another PA bullshit, this could take forever. 

Worth mentioning again that it was only GOP fuckery, i.e. in states with Republican-controlled legislatures, that counting early votes prior to election day was not allowed. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin all had proposed legislation to allow early counting and avoid the "midnight vote dumps" but that doesn't help the GOP/red mirage narrative.

[Js1 85492]

In terms of ACTUAL numbers being reported (not what people say they see), DeKalb is at ~37,500 in-person votes today so far.  Election Day 2020 turnout was ~47,000.  So Democrats aren't ceding election day turnout to Republicans. 

This puts DeKalb at over 300,000 votes in the runoff so far with a few more hours to go. DeKalb was around 373k in November.  (Biden won DeKalb 83-16, Ossoff won it 81-17 and Warnock won 62-10 over Loeffler with the rest of the 400 other candidates)

[Buzzrock 14936]

Dekalb has the blue stronghold of Decatur and purple areas like Sandy Springs and Dunwoody, but it also has red towns like Tucker and Lithonia. That said it’s pretty reliably blue.

[Js1 85492]

2 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

Dekalb has the blue stronghold of Decatur and purple areas like Sandy Springs and Dunwoody, but it also has red towns like Tucker and Lithonia. That said it’s pretty reliably blue.

https://dekalbgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=4135bd1868654e3b84aca982395712d8

You can see where people are turning out.

I love stuff like this.  I wish more states would be so transparent. 

[Js1 85492]

Gabe Sterling's update - 3.1 million early in person + mail.  Couple precincts will stay open after 7 in Columbia and Tift Co.

[wildcat09 29365]

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

https://dekalbgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=4135bd1868654e3b84aca982395712d8

You can see where people are turning out.

I love stuff like this.  I wish more states would be so transparent. 

Looks like Georgia lucked into finding some GOP rube who was dumb enough to believe the GOP's propaganda and decided to actually improve the electoral processes. This is kind of like how they all talk about loving textualist judges until Gorsuch grows up actually believing it and goes "uh guys, discrimination against gay people is obviously based on sex which is illegal." 

[tantric superman 4667]

17 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

Dekalb has the blue stronghold of Decatur and purple areas like Sandy Springs and Dunwoody, but it also has red towns like Tucker and Lithonia. That said it’s pretty reliably blue.

Every one of those place names sounds wall-eyed, Jasper, Texasy to me.

(During summer vacation I used to pull skeet with a guy named Tucker form Lithonia.)

[tantric superman 4667]

14 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Gabe Sterling's update - 3.1 million early in person + mail.  Couple precincts will stay open after 7 in Columbia and Tift Co

Sidney is going to have a field day with that one.

[Js1 85492]

 

[Pancho 44936]

CNN reporting GOP operatives see encouraging signs in rural areas.

 

Not sure if radical republicans are just typically lying or what

 

edit: same CNN segment says dem strategists is “skeptical” of GA wins 

[RDCanecutter 26462]

3 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

Every one of those place names sounds wall-eyed, Jasper, Texasy to me.

(During summer vacation I used to pull skeet with a guy named Tucker form Lithonia.)

Check out Villa Rica west of Atlanta sometime. Pronounced Vill-uh Rick-uh. It's got a certain derp to it.

But the skeegiest outlier of Planet Atlanta I ever visited was Douglasville. Main activity was skinny-necked dudes with big ballcaps so they look like baby birds, driving little tuner-looking pickups around in random directions at 3AM. Kinda reminded me of a kicked-open fire ant bed, except with moon-goblin tweakers.

[NorthLoop 14222]

4 minutes ago, Pancho said:

CNN reporting GOP operatives see encouraging signs in rural areas.

 

Not sure if radical republicans are just typically lying or what

 

Yeah just like those boat rallies

[Neonmoon 38130]

 

I'm not believing shit until I see two wins

[The Dog 44090]

7 minutes ago, Pancho said:

CNN reporting GOP operatives see encouraging signs in rural areas.

 

Not sure if radical republicans are just typically lying or what

 

edit: same CNN segment says dem strategists is “skeptical” of GA wins 

I don't understand the last sentence. Skeptical of what - that the Ds will win?

[Pancho 44936]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I don't understand the last sentence. Skeptical of what - that the Ds will win?

Yes. 
 

I was typing and doing lat pulls at the same time 

[The Dog 44090]

Needles are up:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/05/us/elections/forecast-georgia-senate-runoff.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

[Fudge Nuggets 19211]

6 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

 

I'm not believing shit until I see two wins

Don't hold your breath.  Both of those fucking traitors will win by 3%+.

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

SIAP, but I'm reading in the news that in addition to the Senate runoff and the rally last night in Dalton with the ensuing numbers of people....can you guess which state just discovered their first "known" case of the new more contagious variant of COVID?

 

Here's the blurb--I know it's not quite on topic

Edited January 5, 2021 by Mrs Whiggins

[Js1 85492]

4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Needles are up:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/05/us/elections/forecast-georgia-senate-runoff.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

All hail the needle

 

[Chuckie Finster 22716]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

All hail the needle

 

I have such a fucking complicated relationship with that thing. It was the first indication of a potential 2016 Trump win, but it also calmed my nerves with its out of nowhere shift in Georgia this year. Guess tonight will be the tiebreaker.

[Biff Tannen 45701]

11 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Don't hold your breath.  Both of those fucking traitors will win by 3%+.

This is my expectation.

[GSU&UT 1798]

I just spot checked a bunch of Dekalb precinct based off this map if they had reported around 4pm just now,
https://dekalbgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=4135bd1868654e3b84aca982395712d8

And compared it to the XLS file you can download here,
https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/DeKalb/105414/web.264614/#/detail/1?v=271880/

I only spot checked about 10 but every single one I found that updated around 4pm had more votes cast already than they had on election day for the general. Any surge in turnout today is not going to overwhelmingly benefit the GOP it looks like.

[The Dog 44090]

I mean it is an R +5 state IIRC. Both GOP candidates SHOULD win in a normal cycle. But this isn't very normal right now...

[GSU&UT 1798]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

I mean it is an R +5 state IIRC. Both GOP candidates SHOULD win in a normal cycle. But this isn't very normal right now...

This isn't a +5 state anymore. GA white rural turnout was JUICED for Trump this year and just enough Democratic voters turned out to finally flip it. This also bodes well to blunt any crazy turnout from the exurbs of Atlanta, Dekalb already had one of the highest turnouts of any county before today.

 

 

[Js1 85492]

5 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

I just spot checked a bunch of Dekalb precinct based off this map if they had reported around 4pm just now,
https://dekalbgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=4135bd1868654e3b84aca982395712d8

And compared it to the XLS file you can download here,
https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/DeKalb/105414/web.264614/#/detail/1?v=271880/

I only spot checked about 10 but every single one I found that updated around 4pm had more votes cast already than they had on election day for the general. Any surge in turnout today is not going to overwhelmingly benefit the GOP it looks like.

It will surpass November ED turnout. DeKalb is at 46k now at almost 5PM

[GSU&UT 1798]

Let's just say, if you're Perdue or Loeffler you're sweating bullets right now especially after that released statement lol. It may be close, but it is not trending their way.

Edited January 5, 2021 by GSU&UT

[The Dog 44090]

1 minute ago, GSU&UT said:

This isn't a +5 state anymore.

it's results were 4-5 points off of the national (where Biden won by nearly 5) so that dovetails with an R +5 state. It's 5 points redder than the nation as a whole. 

[Js1 85492]

2 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

This is not what I heard, but I hope you are right.  Why the fuck can't we go back to scantrons and just zip those fuckers through the machines?

 

['stache 21828]

Will it be like the general where the republicans will have big leads tonight and big dem mail ins will take a week to count?

[Jive Turkey 12640]

1 hour ago, BrickHorn said:

I suffer from Democrat optimism fatigue. We always get our hopes up based on some NPR hipster’s fancy regression analysis and rosy what-if scenarios, only to see the angry dipshit voters show up in unexpected numbers and the assholes prevail yet again. 

These two races will go comfortably to the awful GOP candidates. The Republicans will retain the Senate and prevent Dems from implementing any important reforms. In 2022, for the third consecutive cycle, the future of American democracy will hang in the balance. 

yep.  i had my hopes up with Beto over Cruz.  that didn't happen, but hey, it's Texas.  that was wishful thinking.

but the fact that Susan Collins kept her seat in Maine despite all of my high hopes reminded me that legit upsets are few and far between in Senate races.  so i really can't feel good about a black guy and a Jew beating two incumbent white Senators in confederate Georgia.  until it actually fucking happens.

[The Dog 44090]

1 minute ago, 'stache said:

Will it be like the general where the republicans will have big leads tonight and big dem mail ins will take a week to count?

No - they have prepped the mail in ballots so they don't have to wait. They won't count until tonight. The Georgia SOS has a lot of leeway on how to run the election (unlike PA or Michigan)

[elfenix 34331]

4 hours ago, BradInATX said:

BTW if anyone believes in omens or whatever, after almost two full months, today I received a gritty shirt that was hung up in the USPS web this whole time. And an Austin Ice Bats shirt. Whatever that means.

got you beat.  i have a package hung up in usps since july. 

sender didn't put the office suite so, when it showed up here a month after mailing, it got returned to california.  it bounced around in houston between the airport and my post office for a couple months, then went to atlanta, then showed up back here at my building in late october where, again, it couldn't be delivered due to lack of suite number.  still hasn't made it back to california.  thanks dejoy.

[Js1 85492]

6 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Will it be like the general where the republicans will have big leads tonight and big dem mail ins will take a week to count?

If you're curious, there will be about 3 million in-person votes that be tallied tonight - 2.1 million in-person early + an expected 800k - 1million from today.

There's 1 million mail-in ballots that have to run through the machines.  Those are overwhelmingly going to favor Warnock and Ossoff. 

Edited January 5, 2021 by Js1

[Js1 85492]

23 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It will surpass November ED turnout. DeKalb is at 46k now at almost 5PM

And done.  We have now surpassed November Election Day in-person voting #s with 2 hours left to go in DeKalb. 

[GSU&UT 1798]

Like I'm saying, if you're seeing record turnout in Dekalb (possibly Fulton, Clayton, etc.) where there was already good turnout during the EV period, you have to feel a lot better than you did on November 3rd.

 

[The Dog 44090]

1 minute ago, GSU&UT said:

Like I'm saying, if you're seeing record turnout in Dekalb (possibly Fulton, Clayton, etc.) where there was already good turnout during the EV period, you have to feel a lot better than you did on November 3rd.

 

It's good that the neckbeards are showing up but it could also mean high turnout statewide.

[Js1 85492]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

It's good that the neckbeards are showing up but it could also mean high turnout statewide.

High turnout statewide is not good for the GOP - they needed their turnout to be high, but not the other side. 

[Js1 85492]

Also Exit Polls are stupid but:

FIRST EXIT POLLS in the #GASen runoffs!

Was the 2020 presidential election in GA conducted fairly?

Yes: 56%

No: 41%

[GSU&UT 1798]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

High turnout statewide is not good for the GOP - they needed their turnout to be high, but not the other side. 

Right, turnout was super high most everywhere in November and Biden squeaked by. Right now turnout was much lower in the counties Rs need to run up the score in, even if they have higher than November e-day numbers tonight that isn't going to help them unless the total number of ballots cast is closer to general election's total.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19139]

John King ftw!