Sweet Jawja Special Elections

[Bojack 2081]

3 hours ago, elfenix said:

Tapa

Can someone with photoshop skills make Gritty with a Bob Ross afro painting Dotard in The Scream with happy trees?

[Jiggy-Z 3432]

38 minutes ago, honolulu horn said:

Not to derail even further, but a) this is a great set of videos so thanks for promoting them, and b) slow tv out of Norway has some similarly great stuff too. If you need a break from the dirty world of politics, feel free to watch the train from Oslo to Bergen. I put it on my second screen as I'm working. It's a 7 hour trip and nothing happens. "Oh look, we've arrived at Ustaoset, quietly and right on time." It's glorious. 

 

My family watched that a couple of years ago.  My wife was an exchange student in Norway back in the 80's (Kristiansund) and then went back to study there in Oslo after that, so she is clued into all things Norwegian.  That is an great vid, especially the snowy parts.

[Ghost of LL 15531]

1 hour ago, Lobo said:

I'm all for Voting Rights to be shored up.  I actually think Texas gets a bad rap for voter suppression (so much less than our other southern neighbors), but the single dropbox in Harris County infuriated me.  Having said that, you can't just "re-do" the Census without a Constitutional override.  And even if you do, the districts are still done at the state level.  Those statehouses know where the undercounted people are because the Democrats in those Houses have already volunteered the under-counted information (or will here shortly when sessions start all across the nation).  A concentration in a handful of areas of under-repped people actually makes it easier to gerrymander, not harder.  The lines will actually looks goofy to the outside observer, 

I think "re-do" the Census is inartful.  The 2020 Census isn't done.  The Census Bureau says that it won't have final numbers until February at the earliest.

The new head of the Census Bureau may come in and say "uh, yeah--our numbers are garbage because we undercounted a bunch of people because of the pandemic."  And Congress can then appropriate more money (which would be really good for the economy, as it would create a bunch of new temporary jobs) to fund census takers going out and locating the undercounted people.

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

Shit, wrong thread.

Edited January 6, 2021 by Fudge Nuggets

[Voldemort86 2259]

The reason I’m so happy is that for 6 years, the senate literally didn’t do shit. They only passed or debated a bill if they had to. The people in charge had no interest in legislating or making us a better country.

it’s both sad and pathetic that GOP voters can’t see how bad of a leader Mitch McConnell and Lindsey graham ( committees) both were. Those guys did.......NOTHING.

Edited January 6, 2021 by Voldemort86

[Js1 85328]

 

[gmr548 16580]

Unless the GOP plans to run 435 House candidates named Donald Trump....
They are still at a huge disadvantage.  Pass the Voting Rights Act within the first 100 days, re-do the Census and ensure no fuckery can be done for 2022 House maps. 

I'm all for Voting Rights to be shored up.  I actually think Texas gets a bad rap for voter suppression (so much less than our other southern neighbors), but the single dropbox in Harris County infuriated me.  Having said that, you can't just "re-do" the Census without a Constitutional override.  And even if you do, the districts are still done at the state level.  Those statehouses know where the undercounted people are because the Democrats in those Houses have already volunteered the under-counted information (or will here shortly when sessions start all across the nation).  A concentration in a handful of areas of under-repped people actually makes it easier to gerrymander, not harder.  The lines will actually looks goofy to the outside observer, 

If we can get HR-1 or something similar passed it would really get the ball rolling on safeguarding our democracy, including protecting voting rights. It passed straight party in the house and is immensely publicly popular so I’d think it can get through the narrow majority there. What are the prospects of getting that passed in a 50-50 senate?

[SubliminalHorn 6787]

4 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

If we can get HR-1 or something similar passed it would really get the ball rolling on safeguarding our democracy, including protecting voting rights. It passed straight party in the house and is immensely publicly popular so I’d think it can get through the narrow majority there. What are the prospects of getting that passed in a 50-50 senate?

 

[Pescado_Rojo 19416]

59 minutes ago, Cairn Horn88 said:

Came to UT to get MPA from LBJ School of Public Affairs!   Hook'm Baby

 

 

 

A

What starts here changes the world. 

[TexEx15 17522]

1 hour ago, Cairn Horn88 said:

Came to UT to get MPA from LBJ School of Public Affairs!   Hook'm Baby

 

 

 

A

My avatar checks out.  Also,

 

[Aqua Buddha 14596]

Just leave this here.  Not the first time a black man and a Jewish man have helped save the South:

[David Dennison 18856]

20 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

If we can get HR-1 or something similar passed it would really get the ball rolling on safeguarding our democracy, including protecting voting rights. It passed straight party in the house and is immensely publicly popular so I’d think it can get through the narrow majority there. What are the prospects of getting that passed in a 50-50 senate?

 

It appears the legislative filibuster will still be in effect, so the Democrats  would have to find at least ten Republicans to join them.

 

[UpperWestside 6163]

21 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Just leave this here.  Not the first time a black man and a Jewish man have helped save the South:

Read about that in the John Lewis autobiography. The Freedom Summer overall was extremely important, but that was one of the most malicious killings to have taken place during that time.

Edited January 6, 2021 by UpperWestside

[UpperWestside 6163]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

SAY HER MOTHER FUCKING NAME

If I had to pick an equivalent from the Civil Rights era to Stacey Abrams it would be Fannie Lou Hamer. There are some really cool parallels in the mindset of both women and what they overcame to accomplish their goals. I think Mrs. Hamer would've been extremely proud of what she just accomplished in Georgia through never giving up and never taking no for an answer. Abrams is going to get to do some positive work for the Deep South, and the country as a whole going forward, that would make any of the Civil Rights era giants smile.

[gmr548 16580]

It appears the legislative filibuster will still be in effect, so the Democrats  would have to find at least ten Republicans to join them.
 

So zero then. That’s worth nuking the filibuster.

[USMCHorn 1369]

AP has called for Ossoff

[burntorangebongos 10710]

He Has won by the margin above recount, it is a done deal.

[Biff Tannen 45683]

Two years.  Two years to rebuild and transform.  Full speed ahead.  No mercy.

[shnsajax 3591]

8 minutes ago, burntorangebongos said:

He Has won by the margin above recount, it is a done deal.

This needs to be broadcast outside of the Capital on a loop right now. 

[Pablo 494]

9 minutes ago, shnsajax said:

This needs to be broadcast outside of the Capital on a loop right now. 

That would lead these incels to burn shit down

[Degenerate Gardner 4085]

This sweep makes me as happy as Biden’s November win. Far more unexpected to me though; I never indulged myself by even imagining it would come to pass. 

[Tonesky 935]

22 minutes ago, burntorangebongos said:

He Has won by the margin above recount, it is a done deal.

I don't think the victory is in doubt, but could 15K military/international ballots to be counted beginning Friday drop his margin below the .5% recount threshold?

[burntorangebongos 10710]

Yes, that is possible. I forgot about these ballots. His margin is at .06%, so yes, he is not in the clear. 

[totallynotabuttpirate 5400]

1 hour ago, Tonesky said:

I don't think the victory is in doubt, but could 15K military/international ballots to be counted beginning Friday drop his margin below the .5% recount threshold?

I think the military ballots will be offset by the international ballots, which should be strongly tilted dem. 

[totallynotabuttpirate 5400]

His lead is up to .74% which is 33k. 

[atomheartbevo 89661]

7 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Again, if this happens, we should riot.  This is not a time to heal.  This is a time to crush them and let them know what fuck around and find out means.

I think it's safe to say we can leave the riots up to the Rs, as they fuck around and find out.

[Js1 85328]

1 hour ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

His lead is up to .74% which is 33k. 

 

[ConferenceRoom 6141]

3 hours ago, Tonesky said:

I don't think the victory is in doubt, but could 15K military/international ballots to be counted beginning Friday drop his margin below the .5% recount threshold?

They don't anticipate every single of those 15,000 ballots to be returned. They needed to be postmarked yesterday and received by Friday. Anywhere between none and all of the ballots sent out could come back, but a normal figure is about 70%. 

[Js1 85328]

 

[Mdhorn 5949]

43 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

[Js1 85328]

If I'm Raffensperger and Kemp, I have the certificates of certification already drawn up and signed.  Just need to be dated.  They don't owe the Republicans anything anymore by waiting.

[Buzzrock 14920]

 

I passed a billboard in the exurbs yesterday saying not to vote for Loeffler and Perdue because they don’t support Trump enough.

[Buzzrock 14920]

I keep thinking about Loeffler going back to work. Imagine if a respected executive (she was) at your job went and showed her ass like that and then came back months later like “Hey guys what’s up?”

[Js1 85328]

6 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

I keep thinking about Loeffler going back to work. Imagine if a respected executive (she was) at your job went and showed her ass like that and then came back months later like “Hey guys what’s up?”

Martha McSally and Kelly Loeffler both lost in embarrassing fashion (historically red seats in historically red states) and both went right back to DC.  An honorable person would be like "I wasn't initially elected, I wasn't elected to serve this term and now I resign." 

The best part of this?

Perdue left the Senate on January 3, probably thinking he'd be back post haste with a fresh 6 year term.  He did not give a goodbye address.  He does not get to come back to give one, because he is not a Senator anymore.

[BradInATX 9208]

(sorry GB didn't mean to quote you)

It's worth noting that the NYT needle had Warnock at 1.7% and Ossoff at 1.0% by about 20 minutes into receiving results which is almost exactly where they're going to end up. Sure, they had a pretty easy guideline to follow by using county results vs. the same county in November, but even still, impressive work.

Edited January 7, 2021 by BradInATX

[G650 14256]

5 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

(sorry GB didn't mean to quote you)

It's worth noting that the NYT needle had Warnock at 1.7% and Ossoff at 1.0% by about 20 minutes into receiving results which is almost exactly where they're going to end up. Sure, they had a pretty easy guideline to follow by using county results vs. the same county in November, but even still, impressive work.

One thing I felt this brings home is the data guys are not super great at prognosticating into the future from blank slates, but once actual data starts coming in they are extremely accurate.

[Js1 85328]

3 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

(sorry GB didn't mean to quote you)

It's worth noting that the NYT needle had Warnock at 1.7% and Ossoff at 1.0% by about 20 minutes into receiving results which is almost exactly where they're going to end up. Sure, they had a pretty easy guideline to follow by using county results vs. the same county in November, but even still, impressive work.

Remember that the 3  needles, after some modification early on because they were too dependent on FL's results, ended up being extremely spot on in NC and GA by the time they were turned off for the night? 

By the time the needle turned off after Election Night, Georgia was at Biden +0.4 and Trump +1.1 in NC.   Biden won by 0.2 in Georgia and Trump won by 1.3 in NC.

People got some serious PTSD from the 2016 needle, but damn if NYT didn't figure their shit out this time around. 

[BradInATX 9208]

18 minutes ago, G650 said:

One thing I felt this brings home is the data guys are not super great at prognosticating into the future from blank slates, but once actual data starts coming in they are extremely accurate.

 

17 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Remember that the 3  needles, after some modification early on because they were too dependent on FL's results, ended up being extremely spot on in NC and GA by the time they were turned off for the night? 

By the time the needle turned off after Election Night, Georgia was at Biden +0.4 and Trump +1.1 in NC.   Biden won by 0.2 in Georgia and Trump won by 1.3 in NC.

People got some serious PTSD from the 2016 needle, but damn if NYT didn't figure their shit out this time around. 

 

Yeah, agreed. They've definitely tuned their models well for day-of projections.

I saw some tweets that the data guys are basically saying that their models did really well in 2018 and in the GA special as well - essentially saying that there's a Trump X factor for 2016/2020 that they just can't account for. 

One other thing that wasn't really noted much in November because there was so much going on was that Trump's "X factor" was quite different from 2016 to 2020. In 2016, just about every single state ended up redder than polling indicated. The pollsters post-mortems talked about how when calculating Trump's odds, they didn't have the states synchronized enough - IE Trump doing 2% better than expected in Ohio probably meant he was 2% better everywhere.

In 2016 it was a totally different story. Some states (OH, FL, TX) went _much_ redder than the polling showed, but outside of those few states, the polling was actually pretty correct. The RCP average was dead-on in the entire rust belt, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada. So it was the exact opposite of 2016. TX/OH/FL seemed to decouple from the rest of the states and Trump drastically overperformed his polling there.

Will be some really interesting case studies and postmortems coming out over the next couple of years, once there aren't things like coups and treason keeping journalists occupied.

Edited January 7, 2021 by BradInATX

[Buzzrock 14920]

For posterity: the only other item on the ballot was Public Service Commissioner. The Republican who won got more votes than either Perdue or Loeffler.

[Js1 85328]

2 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

For posterity: the only other item on the ballot was Public Service Commissioner. The Republican who won got more votes than either Perdue or Loeffler.

Now that is where people left it blank.  The 2 Senate races got 4.453 million votes each.  This race got 4.405 million.  Almost 50,000 blank ballots.  And that's a huge difference, because the margin right now is 45,805. 

Apparently people had no idea wtf this race was or that it was even there or was the PSC does. 

[Mole 4333]

And it was won by a boy named Sue.

[Buzzrock 14920]

Now that is where people left it blank.  The 2 Senate races got 4.453 million votes each.  This race got 4.405 million.  Almost 50,000 blank ballots.  And that's a huge difference, because the margin right now is 45,805. 
Apparently people had no idea wtf this race was or that it was even there or was the PSC does. 

This is where I got the numbers. Maybe they have moved a little with mail in ballots and whatnot:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ajc.com/ajcjobs/only-republican-leading-in-ga-runoffs-is-a-former-democrat-named-bubba/SOMW3IND3ZFMPON2H3WQNASCYE/%3FoutputType%3Damp

[Buzzrock 14920]

And it was won by a boy named Sue.

Lauren, actually. Bubba to his friends.

[Buzzrock 14920]

Kelly Koncedes

[Mole 4333]

1 hour ago, Buzzrock said:

 

Lauren, actually. Bubba to his friends.

 

When I first saw Lauren “Bubba” McDowell Jr. on a ballot, I was a little confused. When my wife was due with our kid and we were trying to pick a name, I looked up government lists of names going back to the beginning of the 20th century. It was amazing to see how many gendered names have switched since the early 1900s.

[Bama Chick 28596]

I know it don’t make a shit but I feel bad for Ossoff and Warnock. All the joy from their triumph has been completely shit on.

And Stacey Abrams too.

Only good thing about this mess is it’s now unlikely that Loeffler and Purdue pull any “THEY STOLE MAH ELECTION” garbage.

[Brandywine 1316]

On 1/6/2021 at 1:07 PM, Aqua Buddha said:

Just leave this here.  Not the first time a black man and a Jewish man have helped save the South:

Mississippi Burning! 

[Biff Tannen 45683]

31 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

I know it don’t make a shit but I feel bad for Ossoff and Warnock. All the joy from their triumph has been completely shit on.

And Stacey Abrams too.

Only good thing about this mess is it’s now unlikely that Loeffler and Purdue pull any “THEY STOLE MAH ELECTION” garbage.

They don't strike me as the type to give a shit.  They're ready to get to work.

[Js1 85328]

39 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

I know it don’t make a shit but I feel bad for Ossoff and Warnock. All the joy from their triumph has been completely shit on.

And Stacey Abrams too.

Only good thing about this mess is it’s now unlikely that Loeffler and Purdue pull any “THEY STOLE MAH ELECTION” garbage.

Kelly def didn’t. She conceded 

[Buzzrock 14920]

I know it don’t make a shit but I feel bad for Ossoff and Warnock. All the joy from their triumph has been completely shit on.

And Stacey Abrams too.

Only good thing about this mess is it’s now unlikely that Loeffler and Purdue pull any “THEY STOLE MAH ELECTION” garbage.

Never feel bad for politicians. They never feel bad for you.