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Sweet Jawja Special Elections

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The Dog

The Dog 44861

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

High turnout statewide is not good for the GOP - they needed their turnout to be high, but not the other side. 

Lisa Lerer

Lisa Lerer 11m ago

About 3.1 million people voted early, and that vote appeared to tilt Democratic. If another million people cast ballots today, Republicans believe they are likely to win.

High turnout TODAY favors the GOP, unless people just don't show up in the rural counties.

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hornbri

hornbri 1511

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Also Exit Polls are stupid but:

FIRST EXIT POLLS in the #GASen runoffs!

Was the 2020 presidential election in GA conducted fairly?

Yes: 56%

No: 41%

I think that likely favors Rs though. If 41% said no that is the "extreme right" there are going to be a lot of moderate R voters who would say the general election was fair and still vote R (I know this board thinks all R votes are extreme). 

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pyrohornIII

pyrohornIII 4846

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Texas had a good reason for them - from what I recall, for many counties, the theory was that most residents could make it to and from the county seat within a day's ride.

 

2 hours ago, shakahorn said:

I've heard that in several states, KS, NE off the top of my head in addition to the ones mentioned.  Same story, one day's ride on a horse.  Curiously, no one who's told me that can tell me how far a horse can go in a day, or half a day, as it were.  Kinda makes me thing urban legend.  Or rural legend.

 

1 hour ago, RDCanecutter said:

Depends on whether you're fleeing from the Sheriff, or want to arrive somewhere in halfway-decent bidness-conducting state. I'd go with under 30 miles. That's assuming there'd even be roads, or bridges, or how far around swamps and thickets you'd have to go.

So I'm going with "probably an urban legend, but maybe also part true."

What I know of Alabama counties, which are normal-sized instead of cute little baby Georgia county size, is they mostly look like they'd fit the horse -in-a-day's-travel story now. But when they were setting up the state, some of them were much bigger than that at a time when there was no infrastructure other than the Federal Road and the rivers, where you might be lucky to get somewhere in a week, depending on the weather. Then they split them up smaller to about where they are now.

One cool thing about that "day's travel" thing was that each county had some kind of big hotel at the county seat. No way you can do town bidness and get back the same day. You know there was a party going on there

On average, a healthy horse can travel around 25 to 35 miles a day. A horse that is trained to be a top athlete has the possibility of traveling even further. It depends on what discipline they are trained in. Endurance horses are trained specifically to cover distances up to 100 miles in a day.Sep 5, 2020 (ihearthorses.com)

Thats on a good day in good conditions.  Shoots down the one day round trip theory for lots of Texas counties. 

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Js1

Js1 87187

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, hornbri said:

I think that likely favors Rs though. If 41% said no that is the "extreme right" there are going to be a lot of moderate R voters who would say the general election was fair and still vote R (I know this board thinks all R votes are extreme). 

These are *early* exits, they are updated through the night and reweighted.

Just throwing it out there. 

The early exits in 2020 were heavily R-friendly - the Georgia ones had Biden -50 with white voters.  He was actually -39 when all was said and done. 

Edited by Js1
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horn4life

horn4life 3838

Posted
Posted

Probably close but no cigar for the Dems.  The only thing is that both ran more like a ticket than individuals, So for that reason seems like it is sort of an all or nothing.  

Probably the only statistic that would be fascinating to me would be ANYONE who would split ticket? 

Georgia is actually pretty efficient in counting the vote so we get a good snapshot, and then the whining and hand wringing begins.  As for the 56% on the fair election, I would never count those all as Dems.

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, hornbri said:

I think that likely favors Rs though. If 41% said no that is the "extreme right" there are going to be a lot of moderate R voters who would say the general election was fair and still vote R (I know this board thinks all R votes are extreme). 

Votes for Loeffler and Perdue are extreme.  They are both extremists who happily take the nation to the brink of collapse for some real or perceived personal gain.   They are extreme Trumpists in every way, and extreme Trumpists are much more damaging than ideologically pure extremists.  There are still some Rs that one could vote for without being considered a rube or an extremist, but none are in these runoffs.  

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, horn4life said:

Probably close but no cigar for the Dems.  The only thing is that both ran more like a ticket than individuals, So for that reason seems like it is sort of an all or nothing.  

Probably the only statistic that would be fascinating to me would be ANYONE who would split ticket? 

Georgia is actually pretty efficient in counting the vote so we get a good snapshot, and then the whining and hand wringing begins.  As for the 56% on the fair election, I would never count those all as Dems.

If you are left leaning, but profit from the grifting activities of one but not the other, you may vote for only that one. 

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Judge Roybeanbag

Judge Roybeanbag 11860

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, pyrohornIII said:

 

 

On average, a healthy horse can travel around 25 to 35 miles a day. A horse that is trained to be a top athlete has the possibility of traveling even further. It depends on what discipline they are trained in. Endurance horses are trained specifically to cover distances up to 100 miles in a day.Sep 5, 2020 (ihearthorses.com)

Thats on a good day in good conditions.  Shoots down the one day round trip theory for lots of Texas counties. 

Not to derail but that's a bit low.   Depending on terrain, water etc. a good horse could easily make 40-50 a day with frequent stops for rest, food and water.  That's a full dawn to dusk day though, going at walk/trot alternately.

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Buzzrock

Buzzrock 15136

Posted
Posted
Check out Villa Rica west of Atlanta sometime. Pronounced Vill-uh Rick-uh. It's got a certain derp to it.
But the skeegiest outlier of Planet Atlanta I ever visited was Douglasville. Main activity was skinny-necked dudes with big ballcaps so they look like baby birds, driving little tuner-looking pickups around in random directions at 3AM. Kinda reminded me of a kicked-open fire ant bed, except with moon-goblin tweakers.


They got helluva Mustang shop though, and weirdly a kickass Cajun restaurant.
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'stache

'stache 22145

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I’m bracing for the reminder that there are a fuck ton of people in this country that are 1) dumb as fuck, 2) just degenerate pieces of shit, or 3) both. 

This is where I'm at. I'll believe it when I see it.

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Buzzrock

Buzzrock 15136

Posted
Posted
Like I'm saying, if you're seeing record turnout in Dekalb (possibly Fulton, Clayton, etc.) where there was already good turnout during the EV period, you have to feel a lot better than you did on November 3rd.
 


It’s all those dead illegals voting.
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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15698

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, pyrohornIII said:

 

 

On average, a healthy horse can travel around 25 to 35 miles a day. A horse that is trained to be a top athlete has the possibility of traveling even further. It depends on what discipline they are trained in. Endurance horses are trained specifically to cover distances up to 100 miles in a day.Sep 5, 2020 (ihearthorses.com)

Thats on a good day in good conditions.  Shoots down the one day round trip theory for lots of Texas counties. 

The general Texas rule is that counties are 30 miles by 30 miles square.  That's the rule that has been followed since the Constitution of 1976, which provided that new counties must be at least 900 sq. mi.  Nine hundred square miles has been the default, and that was applied to all of the square counties that were admitted that year in the Panhandle.

If you assume that counties are generally 30 miles by 30 miles, then you're generally not going to be more than 21 miles from the county seat (assuming the county seat is generally in the middle of the county, which is the goal).  That puts you within range of a day's round trip.

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

DeKalb is 10k over Election Day 2020 already. Crazy insane. 

I just don't know what to think about that.  On the one hand, DeKalb is heavily Democratic--so Democratic that even if its Republican precincts are turning out disproportionately, that's still a very Democratic showing.

But on the other hand, it could mean a big turnout statewide, which would not be great.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90653

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, pyrohornIII said:

On average, a healthy horse can travel around 25 to 35 miles a day. A horse that is trained to be a top athlete has the possibility of traveling even further. It depends on what discipline they are trained in. Endurance horses are trained specifically to cover distances up to 100 miles in a day.Sep 5, 2020 (ihearthorses.com)

Thats on a good day in good conditions.  Shoots down the one day round trip theory for lots of Texas counties. 

Day's ride, combined with the Texas Constitution (which also tied into a day's ride)

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/07/03/beto-orourke-visited-all-254-counties-texas-why-are-there-so-many/

Quote

Basically, Texas is big, and the state's founders wanted to keep its local governments small. In the state’s early days — Texas became a state in 1845 — Texans needed to be close to those local governments, which were responsible for courts, jails, schools and roads, said lawyer David Brooks, who specializes in Texas county government.

Brooks said counties needed to be small enough that residents could travel to and from their courthouse in a day on horseback to do business. Most farmers couldn’t afford to take more than one day off to travel to the county seat.

As the state expanded throughout the years and the population increased, the number of counties did, too. The earliest counties in Texas history were called municipios and date back to Spanish rule, according to the Texas Association of Counties. There were 23 municipios in what’s now the southeastern part of the state.

Texas became independent in 1836, and the municipios became counties. As settlers moved west, Texas added 14 new counties in under 10 years. When Texas joined the United States, the number of counties went from 37 to 67.

When Texas sold land to the United States as part of the Compromise of 1850, another nine counties were added. By 1860, there were 152 counties in the state.

Growth slowed during the Civil War and picked up again after Reconstruction, according to Kathryn Siefker, curator at the Bullock Texas State History Museum.

Quote

The Constitution of 1876, which is what much of Texas state law today is based on, set requirements for Texas counties. New counties had to be at least 900 square miles and, whenever possible, laid out like a grid.

Land known as the Young Territory in the Panhandle plains was split into 54 counties that year, which is why northwest Texas counties are squares and rectangles. The borders of older counties in the southern part of the state follow natural boundaries such as water basins, Brooks said.

During the end of the 19th century, Texas’ larger counties in the western part of the state were split into smaller units as the population grew.

“They found it would be better to go smaller or increase the amount of counties,” Siefker said.

The state’s last county, Loving County, was added in 1931.

 

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Beantown Express 2.0

Beantown Express 2.0 6597

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

I'm afraid this is right.  I am going into this completely pessimistic.

Yup.  Dems won't win either of these races even though if you took the D and R away from all the candidates I can't believe people would really vote for Perdue or Loeffler because they are such horrible people.  They come across as not to bright when I hear them talk.

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Pancho

Pancho 46329

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I'm afraid this is right.  I am going into this completely pessimistic.

/ Same.  I’ve already started watching shit on Netflix as watching the returns will result in disappointment again.  

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