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Sweet Jawja Special Elections

Zonahorn

By Zonahorn
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'stache

'stache 22144

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

I sort of agree and sort of disagree with this. There are a LOT of the more "moderate" wing of the Democratic Senate who seem to have learned their lesson and are genuinely furious at their Republican colleagues for their behavior the past few years, especially for replacing RBG. Why it took them so long I don't know, but I think most of them have finally really come around and see the GOP for what it really is. 

This doesn't mean they're all going to suddenly become progressives overnight because ideologically most of them aren't progressives, but I don't think we're going to see years of serious attempts at getting GOP buy in on shit that Dems want to get done. 

I was going to say something similar. There are many "moderate" democrats. They don't operate like republicans, and really can't, especially if they want to maintain the relative (big emphasis on relative) high road. Republicans sold their souls decades ago and their voters will always against the democrat, doesn't really matter who the republican is, which is why this whole "GOP is fractured" doesn't move the needle for me. Doesn't matter who Biden (or Harris) run against in 2024, millions of people will vote against them regardless of who the R is.

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TexasEd

TexasEd 8266

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Posted
11 hours ago, TexasEd said:

James Carville

"There's nothing more fun than watching Republicans when they lose an election, they come after each other with meat cleavers."

Quoting myself but this was hilarious to watch on MSNBC last night.  The knives are out today.

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Js1

Js1 87186

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, 'stache said:

So when do these two get seated, and when do we get to see Mitch demoted? I have a chubby just thinking about it.

I do want to add, the longer it drags on for the Ossoff-Perdue race, the longer Georgia's representation in the Senate is effectively cut in half.

Loeffler isn't a good legislator - if they want some last minute pork for Georgia, she isn't going to get it done.  They basically have no one representing them in the Senate - Perdue was termed out and she's a Senator-in-name-only who probably won't go back to DC after today. 

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'stache

'stache 22144

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Mole said:

Some of this. Also, Loeffler is cartoonishly horrifying. Maybe her cartoon villain qualities seem more offensive to some because she’s a woman, but she’s objectively more horrifying than Perdue.

Probably a little of this. There’s probably a bit of anti-Semitism baked into American politics in general, but Perdue hasn’t altered any pictures of Ossoff’s nose in months, so I guess they didn’t find it that effective.

More generally, while Ossoff is young, smart, and a good candidate, he isn’t quite as compelling as Warnock. Georgia was won with black organizers registering black voters. The senior pastor at Ebenezer Baptist and a child of the poverty resonates in a way that a child of privilege turned documentarian doesn’t. Add in Loeffler’s making this election about the black church too.

I suspect that enthusiasm was far higher for Warnock than Ossoff. I could also see some generally R leaning, white Christian values voters seeing Warnock as acceptable and then also voting for Perdue.

If you look at county by county numbers, there wasn’t that much splitting of tickets, just a little here and there, always favoring Warnock over Ossoff.

What’s absolutely amazing to me is that during the height of extreme right wing nationalist identity politics, Georgia just elected a Black senator and a Jewish senator.

Is it possible that some people came out solely to vote for the Black candidate and left the rest of the ballot blank? It's not a criticism, it's a completely legitimate thing in my view for people who have been treated horribly by elected officials for so long and finally were informed of one candidate they could relate to who they believed would legitimately work for their interests and who had a legitimate shot at victory. 

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Js1

Js1 87186

Posted
Posted
Just now, 'stache said:

Is it possible that some people came out solely to vote for the Black candidate and left the rest of the ballot blank? It's not a criticism, it's a completely legitimate thing in my view for people who have been treated horribly by elected officials for so long and finally were informed of one candidate they could relate to who they believed would legitimately work for their interests and who had a legitimate shot at victory. 

Thought this too, because someone had said people (infrequent/new voters) didn't realize they were voting for 2 races and thought it was 1 out of 4 candidates.

But there were (so far) 4,406,526 votes in the Warnock race and 4,406,427 votes in the Ossoff race.  A difference of 99 where the Ossoff-Perdue race was left blank.  Like a rain drop in the Pacific Ocean. 

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'stache

'stache 22144

Posted
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Just now, Js1 said:

Thought this too, because someone had said people (infrequent/new voters) didn't realize they were voting for 2 races and thought it was 1 out of 4 candidates.

But there were (so far) 4,406,526 votes in the Warnock race and 4,406,427 votes in the Ossoff race.  A difference of 99 where the Ossoff-Perdue race was left blank.  Like a rain drop in the Pacific Ocean. 

I guess I could have done the math myself, thanks for the numbers. The difference in margins for Warnock and Ossoff is more than I expected, but the explanations here and elsewhere make some sense. I do doubt that there was much outright sexism against Loeffler. If anything, she was more trump aligned than purdue, either in reality or by perception, so maybe that too played a role.

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G650

G650 14437

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

I’m probably more pumped waking up today than when they finally called it for Biden. We may actually get some shit done now. 
 

They fucked around and are about to find out. 

I am absolutely more pumped

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TexasEd

TexasEd 8266

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I guess I could have done the math myself, thanks for the numbers. The difference in margins for Warnock and Ossoff is more than I expected, but the explanations here and elsewhere make some sense. I do doubt that there was much outright sexism against Loeffler. If anything, she was more trump aligned than purdue, either in reality or by perception, so maybe that too played a role.

She was more "out there"

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The Dog

The Dog 44861

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I guess I could have done the math myself, thanks for the numbers. The difference in margins for Warnock and Ossoff is more than I expected, but the explanations here and elsewhere make some sense. I do doubt that there was much outright sexism against Loeffler. If anything, she was more trump aligned than purdue, either in reality or by perception, so maybe that too played a role.

A bit - also because as others said Perdue was an incumbent and his is a big name in GA politics. 

A quick look at the county results and it appears the Perdue/Warnock vote occurred in suburban white districts (the same that helped put Biden over the top). I have to believe some Perdue voters from November either stayed home or even switched to Ossoff if they voted Biden and showed up. That Trump phone call was a disaster.

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pacman

pacman 7508

Posted
Posted

Roughly a million fewer votes than in November. Perdue lost just under 267k (lost 11% of the vote) voted and Ossof lost a little over 162k (lost 7%) from the November votes.

 

So, Mr. Perdue, why do you think you lost so many votes with the stakes so high?

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Mole

Mole 4341

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Is it possible that some people came out solely to vote for the Black candidate and left the rest of the ballot blank? It's not a criticism, it's a completely legitimate thing in my view for people who have been treated horribly by elected officials for so long and finally were informed of one candidate they could relate to who they believed would legitimately work for their interests and who had a legitimate shot at victory. 

Possibly. Warnock’s position at Ebenezer gives him a lot of weight. 

Of course, there was a third runoff election for Public Service Commission (utilities). There, it looks like the R (a white man named Lauren) beat the D (a Black man named Blackman). As of 10 minutes ago, the R candidate for Public Service Commission has more votes than everyone but Warnock.

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26851

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

Makes sense - he brings out low propensity voters (on both sides) that are hard on the models. I just wonder who is going to stay furious and focused the longest. The GOP is going to take a long time to sort itself out and I get a sense that an anti-authoritarian coalition is forming. The question is whether progressive maximalists can take stock in just how close they came to losing literally everything, and how long they and the center-right can play ball until Democracy is secured. 

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Francisco 2.0

Francisco 2.0 32595

Posted
Posted

2 years.

No fucking around.   You want change?  2 years.  Because starting tomorrow, Fox, OAN, Newsmax, WSJ and so forth...are going to daily bash the shit out of anything this House, Senate and President does.  

The margins in the House are close enough that the hate machine will be churning overtime to get the House to flip in 2022, and maybe even the Senate even though Team R will be defending far more seats.

2 years.

 

 

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Js1

Js1 87186

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, The Dog said:

image.thumb.png.899cd0bf85b11862087ec907a226b28f.png

From the NYT for the Perdue/Ossoff race.

A reminder - the rural vote is not lost.  The rural WHITE vote may be lost, but stop ignoring the rural black vote.

Let the NYT go to some diners and interview the rural black voter and ask why the GOP can't make inroads. 

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Js1

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Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

2 years.

No fucking around.   You want change?  2 years.  Because starting tomorrow, Fox, OAN, Newsmax, WSJ and so forth...are going to daily bash the shit out of anything this House, Senate and President does.  

The margins in the House are close enough that the hate machine will be churning overtime to get the House to flip in 2022, and maybe even the Senate even though Team R will be defending far more seats.

2 years.

 

 

Unless the GOP plans to run 435 House candidates named Donald Trump....

They are still at a huge disadvantage.  Pass the Voting Rights Act within the first 100 days, re-do the Census and ensure no fuckery can be done for 2022 House maps. 

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Js1

Js1 87186

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

A little disappointed by how little Healthcare is being mentioned among Democrats when talking about their new majority.  We may just get more COVID relief and a climate change starter pack before time runs out.

There will be changes to the ACA - the mandate could be re-added back in under reconciliation

The most important thing will be getting the new AG confirmed so the stupid lawsuit can be withdrawn from SCOTUS.  Don't forget the prescription drug bill McConnell wouldn't even put for a vote after it passed through the committee. 

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Foosters

Foosters 18280

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Js1 said:

A reminder - the rural vote is not lost.  The rural WHITE vote may be lost, but stop ignoring the rural black vote.

Let the NYT go to some diners and interview the rural black voter and ask why the GOP can't make inroads. 

To be fair, the rural black vote is really only a thing in the South.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Unless the GOP plans to run 435 House candidates named Donald Trump....

They are still at a huge disadvantage.  Pass the Voting Rights Act within the first 100 days, re-do the Census and ensure no fuckery can be done for 2022 House maps. 

I'm all for Voting Rights to be shored up.  I actually think Texas gets a bad rap for voter suppression (so much less than our other southern neighbors), but the single dropbox in Harris County infuriated me.  Having said that, you can't just "re-do" the Census without a Constitutional override.  And even if you do, the districts are still done at the state level.  Those statehouses know where the undercounted people are because the Democrats in those Houses have already volunteered the under-counted information (or will here shortly when sessions start all across the nation).  A concentration in a handful of areas of under-repped people actually makes it easier to gerrymander, not harder.  The lines will actually looks goofy to the outside observer, 

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honolulu horn

honolulu horn 6231

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, Jiggy-Z said:

There will never be another Bob Ross, but I think I found where Bob was reincarnated.

There is a youtuber that goes by NDYakAngler who specializes in lake and river fishing in Minn, Wisc., and the Dakotas.  Whenever I need a Bob Ross fix, I go watch this guy.

He has more calming videos than the one I posted below, but you will get the idea.  He gets most like Bob when he is after small mouth bass. Thank me later for a nice break from the dirty complicated world of politics.

 

Not to derail even further, but a) this is a great set of videos so thanks for promoting them, and b) slow tv out of Norway has some similarly great stuff too. If you need a break from the dirty world of politics, feel free to watch the train from Oslo to Bergen. I put it on my second screen as I'm working. It's a 7 hour trip and nothing happens. "Oh look, we've arrived at Ustaoset, quietly and right on time." It's glorious. 

 

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Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand

Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13629

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Tom said:

 

While we're at it, won't anyone think of the horse carriage makers?  Fuck Ford and the car manufacturers, our GDP is going to shit without horseshoes.  Won't anyone think of the blacksmiths?! - Hook1997, probably

It's almost as if the fracking boom didn't occur during the Obama-Biden administration.

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