Future electoral map....

[Aqua Buddha 14517]

Now that the electoral votes by state will change due to the census, I was curious what the new electoral math looked like with GA and AZ being purple to lean blue.  As far as states gaining and losing, it's a mixed bag between the parties.  (Below.)  270towin has a calculator in the link below with the new state totals.  What I find interesting is that if the Democrats can hold AZ and GA, they only need to win one of the three Midwestern states to hold the WH.  WI can fade away as it's less now than both AZ and GA.  MI seems to be the more Democratic of the three and if they just hold that, PA doesn't matter.  Interesting map and you can move states back and forth and see what it looks like.

A projection from Election Data Services indicates TX and FL will be the big winners, gaining 3 and 2 electoral votes, respectively. AZ, CO, MT, NC and OR will gain one each. As the number of electoral votes is fixed, these 10 increased votes must come from somewhere else. The current projection is that ten states AL, CA, IL, MI, MN, OH, NY, PA, RI, WV) are on track to lose one each. 

The only change from last year's estimate is that California is now projected to lose an electoral vote, with New York losing one instead of two. As these are both deep blue states, there is no bottom line change: The interactive map below shows that if the projected 2024 map had been in place in 2016, Trump would have won 309 electoral votes, 3 more than the 306 he actually won (excluding faithless electors). However, if this projection does prove accurate, it will be the first time California has lost an electoral vote (and thus a congressional seat) since it gained statehood in 1850.

https://www.270towin.com/custom-maps/projected-2024-electoral-vote-allocation

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

Even with the changes, if Dems can repeat 2020 in 2024, they easily win the WH. Dropping Trump will make AZ, GA and NE-1 more difficult to hold. The 2024 map should still give Dems the advantage.

[Aqua Buddha 14517]

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Even with the changes, if Dems can repeat 2020 in 2024, they easily win the WH. Dropping Trump will make AZ, GA and NE-1 more difficult to hold. The 2024 map should still give Dems the advantage.

Even with the new math, the path to the WH runs through WI, MI, and PA but with the changes, WI becomes less important and of the three, that's the one with the most risk of slippage.  If the Dems win all three, nothing matters but as GA becomes more blue by the day just to pure demographics, it gives them a lot more breathing room.

The Republicans benefited from the gradual rightward drift of OH and MO and now the Dems are seeing the same with AZ and GA after benefitting from CO and VA.

[WBT 20422]

MT gaining 1 surprises me

[gmr548 16513]

The Ds have a relatively high electoral floor at about 226 EVs in the current map, give or take a couple with whatever the new one is. The R floor is 163 without IA or OH, 187 if you want to throw them in, which I’m inclined to do. I’m honestly so pessimistic about Florida that I more or less consider it a R lock, even though Ds have to try for it. That brings Rs to 216, same give or take implied. So Ds have a higher floor, possibly way higher depending on how it define a battleground.

The problem for Democrats is that the remaining swing states all vote to the right of the nation by a significant amount. We’re looking at Biden +4ish when this is all counted with Democrats barely eking out AZ, GA, PA, and WI, and NV and MI still a couple points to the right of the nation. So at this point, Democrats have to really win a commanding popular vote victory to have a chance, not just a 2 point GOP EC edge.

What really will make the difference here is Cult 45, particularly the millions that turned out in 2020 after not voting in 16. Do they become disengaged without Trump on the ballot? If they become loyal GOP voters Democrats are in a bad position for a while, because you cannot count on white suburbanites to stay with the party or historic black turnout in every election.